Hypothesis:
99% of"Economic Analysts" are analysing what they dont understand.
Test at any significance or confidence level 😀
My 2 cents:
Take your time to read and verify facts,
Calculate numbers.
These guys took months to prepare MPS and you understood it in 20 min?
If we are to combine and compare market caps for both exchanges, Delta is the most valuable company in Zim and it’s market cap is 22% of the total.
The total market cap after factoring in parallel rates is around $3,37 Bln
Top 3 market dominance reduced by 5% over the last week.
Top 3 slightly increased their market cap, which is a signal that there is a rising interest in mid cap and small cap counters.
Any promising mid/small cap counters this year on
#ZSE
?
Most Active
#ZSE
stocks in 2024
✓ DELTA $DLTA
✓ ECONET $ECO
✓ ECOCASH $EHLZ
✓ MIEKLES $MIEK
✓ STARAFRICA $SACL
✓ WILLDALE $WILD
✓ ZIMRE $ZHL
These stocks recorded daily trades in the first 2 trading weeks of the year
#zsetech
WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS
• 📉 ECONET confirms 2nd bull run of the year
• ⬆️ Delta and Econet volumes show accumulation mode
• ZSE on a rebound
• 📊VFEX volume milestone
• Growing market interest for Padenga
USDZWL Parallel rate reached 30k after rumours of a $1000 note. Exchange rate mvt raised the premium from 25% to 43%
ZSE ALSI(USD) lost 12.05%.
ZSE Market cap now under US$2b.
This is the worst daily loss since the beginning of the year
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Market Concentration
#Delta
overcomes
#Econet
in average daily volumes.
The two now dominate 73% of daily Price Volume, making them the most traded and most liquid counters on
#ZSE
.
Tanganda formed an engulfing candlestick pattern to try reverse a downtrend. The only key challenge here is that there is no key level.
A Fib retracement of 78.1% is not so popular. It will be interesting to see a strong support at this level
#ZSE
#zsetech
1/ Possible Causes of ZSE Downtrend (Thread)
In Technical analysis, we believe that “Volume goes with the trend
The current trend signals that we have a declining demand volume causing illiquidity.
Sellers who want to exit are more than buyers who want to enter the market ..
#Econet
confirms an uptrend on daily chart.
An aggressive bullish bar + supporting price volume range.
However, there is a huge volume recorded at resistant zone @$183.
Holders might exit on reversal expectations. It’s also a good entry zone at HTF
#zse
#zsetech
VFEX price volume since the beginning of the year gives a hint on investors' biases.
Simbisa, Innscor and Africa Sun have significant volumes than majority of ZSE Stocks.
perfomance over the last 3 years vs ZWL (official exchange rate).
How far has it kept value against inflation and depreciating currency?
Is investment during hyperinflation better than holding USD?
#ZSE
1/ Liquidity in the market!
It's important to bear in mind that if you are trader (short term positions), there is need to plan your trades based on the major determinant of liquidity ie volume.
After studying Warren Buffet , do your own research to see if the companies you are buying are
i) still paying salaries
ii) keeping important skills/experience
iii) operating or have closed plants/dept
iv) increasing market share/have new competitors
Zim environment is unique
#ECONET
huge traded volumes for the past 2 days confirms an uptrend.
This has pushed the prices above $0.10 for the first time since July 2023.
Yesterday,
#ECO
share closed ≈$0.117 and traded value ≈US$600k, highest in 2024.
#ZSE
#ZSE
ASI index moved about 55% in 3 weeks of trading.
In the same period, ZWL discounted the gains by 27% depreciation on the parallel market.
The USD gains are approx 22%
There is also a strong positive correlation between ZWL Parallel rates and ZSE ASI
#zsetech
After days of downtrend,
#Mashonaland
bottomed with a rail and a bullish bar, a buy signal for price action traders. Isn’t it a bullish trap?
#zse
#zsetech
USD valuation for shares.
How is the parallel exchange rate affecting
#ZSE
stock prices?
Is the current drop in share prices effect of the exchange rate?
Unpopular Market opinion:
Many counters appearing cheap to the market are companies in deep crisis.
They are losing the market share, revenue/profits and skills.
#Econet
USD price chart.
The share lost 95% from its 3 year High of $1.82 and is now trading at $0.09.
Macro economic factors or Debentures effect?
#ZSE
#zsetech
#Delta
accumulation phase is taking shape. Despite the low market participation, it’s price Volume was 53,47% of the market turnover.
Other Significant volumes were
#simbisa
21%
#nmbz
15%
#Econet
4%
#cbz
2%
#ECOCASH
,
#HIPO
and
#OK
are some of the stocks further down from their Historical Average Price, giving them a potential rise of at least 300% USD gains if they revert back to their average price.
#ZSE
VFEX and ZSE have similar liquidity ratios of 1%
ZSE monthly volatility is 8X that of VFEX.
VFEX average market cap ratio is double that of ZSE.
Lack of Volatility on VFEX is not a liquidity problem but linked to (over)valuation.
If you were indexing your Portfolio using Parallel rates,
Holding these on
#ZSE
throughout 2023 was the best decision.
More than 100% return in USD terms
#zsetech
Approx US$15m worth of shares were traded on
#ZSE
and
#VFEX
.
4 counters traded value was 79% of the total.
#Delta
dominated trading volume with 38%
Weekly Analysis::
Thoughts on
#OkZim
Head and Shoulders complete , a supporting volume.
A resistant block doesn't have any volume record to justify its strength.
The market just settled on a round price of $30.
Breakout or breakdown?
#zse
#zsetech
Are
#Econet
buyers giving up on the price battle?
Yesterday the price volume was around 9% as more investors attention shifted to
#simbisa
and
#delta
Another strong bullish candle is expected from huge demand volume
#zse
#zsetech
#OKZIM
is still under an EMA but a surge in volume managed to support a “morning star”
There were more buyers than sellers, which explains +14%
$39 Resistance price is visible
OKZIM is in our weekly report, more focus on expected targets, reversal points and decision levels
#zse
#Econet
broke a resistance level yesterday but there is still another zone to worry about. Are we going to Break out or Breakdown ?
#Econet
attracts day traders due its highest daily volumes and price volume ranging from 15% to 70% of the market
It’s really interesting to see some retail investors studying market maker methods from Warren Buffett’s Hathaway Berkshire.
$51b stock market investment is smart money. It can determine the direction of the stock price.
Unfortunately, $1000 cannot do that!
A year ago, FMHL has its Lowest market cap of approx US$8m at parallel rates. Today it starts the month with $111m valuation, which is 13.8 times growth.
What could be the major contributors to this growth? Revenue, Acquisition?
#Simbisa
failed to break the resistance zone due to a significant drop in volume, a typical pump and dump pattern.
The volume was ranging from 14% to 30% of the market,by yesterday it was less than 1%.
Without a full trade/order book, it’s an unfair market for retail traders.
Volume profile for
#OKZIM
shows reaction at major key levels.
Recent dumping indicated many sellers entered the market to stop their losses and significant no. of buyers expecting a bounce @ $30.
Sellers overpowered buyers.
#zse
#zsetech
#Okzim
was 2.2% of yesterday’s volume
#Simbisa
trying to break the last resistance. Volume, patterns and price range confirm uptrend.
Significant accumulation can be seen on volume profile
#zse
#zsetech
#ECONET
is the most liquid stock on
#ZSE
this year with nearly US$1m traded value.
#DELTA
comes second with approx US$500k
In the first 2 trading weeks,
#ZSE
had approx US$1,8m total traded value
#zsetech
The last weekly support of ZSE All shares index is around 12300.
At least two weeks of a downtrend before we hit the zone and expect some reactions
#zse
#zsetech
#ZSE
experienced its Great market crash in 2022 when majority of stocks lost average of 70% in few months (Measured in USD PMR).
•The ZWL premium was ≈135%, attempt to close the gap crashed the market
•From the current listed companies, only 3 had a positive YTD
#zsetech
Listening to motivational speech from great traders will never make you profitable.
Practice and identify what works for your trading/investment philosophy.
A worrying development in the ZSE daily chart pattern.
The index support was broken in the last 3 trading days, which can be a signal of a falling GDP.
Short term traders who didn’t collect profits on
#CBZ
are now trapped by a failed retest
Technical analysis must follow the channel for another perfect exit
#zse
#zsetech
CBZ was on a good trend. It seems the best time for short term traders to collect the profit was when it broke the resistance price of $165.
It’s back in the range which might take time to see a break out
#zse
#cbz
#zsetech
Retail investors don't make any market , they follow the market.
The best strategy is to follow the market maker decisions which can only be seen in price movements and order book structure
#Econet
volumes were falling by the day the whole of last week, pulling down the price from a peak of 14 cents to 13 cents.
It really needs another aggressive accumulation volumes to maintain the momentum or it’s retracing back to the $0.10 support
#ZSE
#ECONET
technical set up
✓ It is trading below its 3 years historic average price of approx $0.24
✓ a head and shoulders pattern breakout
✓ it broke its $0.10 yearly resistance
✓ Aggressive trading volumes
However, fundamental changes can make the pattern fail
#ZSE
$DLTA: up 16.16% YTD (US$ index), outperforming other popular stocks.
While ZSE (US$ index) dipped, Delta remains a shining star.
Ecocash is down with -65.64% , OK -34%, Econet 28.28%, Simbisa -25.58%
#ZSE
#DLTA
#ECONET
#zsetech