HAKAN YILMAZKUDAY
@yilmazkuday
Followers
5,239
Following
5,479
Media
1,108
Statuses
1,725
Professor of Economics @FIU | Consultant @WorldBank | Faculty Fellow @fiu_sipa | PhD and MA in Economics @VanderbiltU | BSc in Economics @LSEnews | #EconTwitter
Miami, FL
Joined December 2009
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
TEDDYTINT X CHARLOTTE
• 345755 Tweets
台風の影響
• 184628 Tweets
STUNNING SHOT WITH REBECCA
• 169128 Tweets
#vivoV40Series5GxBecky
• 169126 Tweets
Sukuna
• 110549 Tweets
TEDDYTINT X FAYE
• 99716 Tweets
Megumi
• 98322 Tweets
Karime
• 96268 Tweets
デコピン
• 83317 Tweets
Fireboy
• 58028 Tweets
焼肉の日
• 53764 Tweets
Gomita
• 43009 Tweets
#NationalSportsDay
• 33724 Tweets
मेजर ध्यानचंद
• 33011 Tweets
राष्ट्रीय खेल
• 32712 Tweets
安全第一
• 32655 Tweets
臨時休業
• 20625 Tweets
台風のせい
• 19428 Tweets
VisiPRABOWO BangunBANGSA
• 19095 Tweets
ابو شجاع
• 18383 Tweets
MENUJUbangsa MAJUsejahtera
• 18371 Tweets
アイプリ
• 14962 Tweets
***************************
!!! JUST ACCEPTED !!!
***************************
“Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important Are Oil Prices?” has been accepted for publication at Energy Economics.
This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55
17
135
674
This paper presents the first systematic empirical analysis of the drivers of global inflation over the period of 1970-2022.
1
92
340
Oil price shocks followed by global demand shocks explain the lion’s share of variation in global inflation.
"What Explains Global Inflation" is available as a World Bank Policy Research Working Paper at
@fiu_sipa
@WorldBank
@wb_research
@WBPubs
2
78
244
******************************
!!! JUST ACCEPTED !!!
******************************
"What Explains Global Inflation" has been accepted for publication at the IMF Economic Review.
This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common
3
30
199
JUST ACCEPTED: "Geopolitical Risk and Stock Prices" has been accepted for publication at the European Journal of Political Economy.
This paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risk on stock prices of 29 economies by using the local projections method for the
6
45
198
What explains global inflation? Our new World Bank Policy Research working paper provides some insights.
The paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation over the past half-century, using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model.
We identify a wide range
3
53
191
Economic growth is accelerated by standard growth variables only when inflation is below 8%.
"Inflation Thresholds and Growth" is published at International Economic Journal:
4
51
186
Short-term goal: 3000 citations
Long-term goal: An h-index of 100
12
1
186
How do geopolitical risks affect stock prices? The answer is in this paper:
1
41
185
This paper sheds light on the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries from 1970-2022.
According to the study, global shocks account for about 26% of inflation variation in a typical economy.
Surprisingly, oil price shocks only account for roughly 4% of inflation variation,
0
46
181
An exchange rate shock resulting in a real depreciation of 1% is shown to decrease welfare by about 0.80% for the average-income consumer, while this estimate ranges between 0.73% and 0.83% for consumers in the lowest and highest income quintiles, respectively.
1
26
169
This paper examines the global drivers of inflation in 55 countries over 1970–2022.
#EconTwitter
#inflation
#CentralBank
#Economics
2
48
170
This paper investigates the relationship between trade liberalization and urban concentration by using a difference-in-difference approach.
2
55
172
******************************
!!! JUST PUBLISHED !!!
******************************
"Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation" is published online at The World Economy.
FREE ACCESS is available at
8
43
164
"What Explains Global Inflation" is published online at the IMF Economic Review:
5
43
166
OPEN ACCESS to "Drivers of inflation convergence across countries: the role of standard gravity variables" is available at
0
40
161
Fiscal stability is the key to a successful monetary policy.
"Can Inflation Targeting Regimes be Effective in Developing Countries? The Turkish Experience" is available at Journal of Asian Economics:
#inflation
#policy
#Economics
#econtwitter
3
40
147
This paper investigates the exchange rate pass-through to inflation for 47 countries by accounting for the nature of the shock triggering currency movements and country-specific characteristics.
#inflation
#Currency
#Economics
#Econometrics
5
43
148
World Bank Policy Research working paper version of "Understanding the Global Drivers of Inflation: How Important Are Oil Prices?" is available at:
4
39
134
This paper compares the effects of government consumption and government debt on economic growth using data from 83 countries, including both developed and developing markets.
Linear regressions reveal that the negative effects of government consumption
1
38
134
How do geopolitical risks in one country affect the economic growth of another country? The answer is in this brand-new working paper:
2
34
132
This paper compares the effects of government consumption and government debt on economic growth by using data from 83 countries, including both developed and developing markets:
1
48
133
********************************
!!! JUST PUBLISHED !!!
****************************** **
"Understanding the global drivers of inflation: How important are oil prices?" is published at Energy Economics.
• Global shocks have explained about 26% of
1
40
127
Credit card usage has an increasing effect on inflation over time, requiring more policy emphasis on the credit channel through credit cards.
"Monetary policy and credit cards: Evidence from a small open economy" is available at Economic Modelling:
1
41
126
This paper investigates the effects of gasoline prices on the U.S. business cycles by introducing a transportation sector between producers and consumers in a DSGE model.
1
20
122
How can Türkiye reduce inflation? The answer is in this publication:
0
25
124
Finance accelerates economic growth when inflation is below 8%.
3
22
122
What are the drivers of Turkish inflation? The answer is in this publication:
7
28
119
Which global factors contribute the most to the inflation of 55 countries? The answer is in this publication:
3
33
121
How does inflation affect per capita income growth? The answer is in this publication:
3
36
116
***************************************
!!! NEW WORKING PAPER !!!
***************************************
This paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risk on stock prices of 29 economies by using the local projections method for the monthly period between
3
14
115
Countries with a better trade network grow faster.
"Trade Partner Diversification and Growth: How Trade Links Matter" is available at Journal of Macroeconomics:
@asonder79
@fiu_sipa
@ELSFinance
#econtwitter
#economics
1
35
116
Monetary policy shocks are responsible for higher exchange rate pass-through which can be reduced by a more flexible exchange rate regime or a credible commitment to an inflation target.
5
32
116
FIRST PUBLICATION OF 2024: "Energy price shocks and current account balances: Evidence from emerging market and developing economies" is published at Energy Economics.
This paper investigates the effects of real energy price shocks on current account
3
26
115
How does fiscal policy in one country affect the real GDP growth of another? The answer is in this brand-new publication:
1
34
113
How do geopolitical risks in one country affect the economic growth of another country?
Using a local projections method at the country-pair level, this paper attempts to answer this question by considering the effects of a shock to geopolitical risks in spillover source
1
22
114
This paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risks on the stock prices of 29 economies:
1
29
112
How do tariff reductions affect the population of cities? The answer is in this publication:
3
21
112
This paper compares the effects of government consumption and government debt on economic growth by using data from 83 countries, including both developed and developing markets.
0
41
113
This paper compares the effects of government consumption and government debt on economic growth in 83 countries.
The negative effects of government consumption outweigh those of government debt, according to linear regressions.
Nonlinear investigation suggests that
1
24
110
How do geopolitical risks affect global shipping costs? The answer is in this paper:
3
32
106
How to international trade networks affect economic growth? The answer is in this publication:
0
34
106
What are the channels through which economic growth in one country affects others? The answer is in this paper:
0
39
103
How does the international trade network of a country affect its economic growth? The answer is in this publication:
@asonder79
@fiu_sipa
1
18
103
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper titled "Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies" is available for download at
#EconTwitter
#Economics
#energy
3
23
105
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper version of "Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through" is available at
0
21
105
How does inflation affect economic growth? The answer depends on the quality of institutions:
2
25
103
How does the fiscal policy of a country affect the economic growth of another country? The answer is in this working paper:
0
27
99
This paper illustrates the trilateral relation between inflation, finance, and growth using a series of three-dimensional graphs that offer an appealing visual interpretation.
1
23
99
***********************************
!!! JUST ACCEPTED !!!
***********************************
"Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies" has been accepted for publication at Energy Economics.
This paper
2
21
99
This brand-new publication in the Journal of International Money and Finance reveals an interesting finding: less open economies benefit more from trade. Check out the study here:
2
41
100
SECOND PUBLICATION OF 2024: "Diminishing gains from trade across countries: Interaction between trade elasticity and openness" is published at Journal of International Money and Finance.
This paper theoretically shows that when the trade elasticity is
3
15
98
This paper investigates the effects of artificial intelligence on the labor markets of US states.
The empirical analysis is based on the local projections method, where weekly state-level labor market conditions and Google search trends of "artificial
1
20
96
This paper investigates the effects of energy price shocks on the current account balances of 45 emerging market and developing economies.
1
38
98
This paper investigates the effects of inflation on per capita income growth for 36 developed and developing countries by using structural vector autoregression models that are robust to the consideration of endogeneity by construction.
The effects of
0
33
97
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper version of "Energy Price Shocks and Current Account Balances: Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies" is available at
2
23
96
Are you looking for a DSGE model distinguishing between gasoline demand and gasoline supply shocks? This one does it through a transportation sector.
WP
Blog
#EconTwitter
#economics
#Econometrics
@fiu_sipa
1
17
94
This paper investigates the effects of inflation on per capita income growth for 36 developed and developing countries by using structural vector autoregression models that are robust to the consideration of endogeneity by construction.
The results show
1
21
96
By introducing and estimating a DSGE model using eighteen quarterly series from the US, this paper evaluates the contribution of each competing story to the Great Trade Collapse:
2
19
95
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
!!! NEW WORKING PAPER !!!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
This paper investigates the role of international trade in explaining inflation spillovers across 146 countries for the sample period of 1970-2022.
International
0
20
92
"Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation" is now published in an issue of the World Economy:
5
24
94
Which shocks are responsible for higher exchange rate pass-through? The answer is in this publication:
1
18
93
By using a DSGE model, this paper investigates the effects of international trade costs and alternative inflation targets on the exchange rate determination.
2
20
90
Why do international trade studies have higher elasticity measures compared to international finance studies? The answer is in this publication:
0
18
90
Using monthly headline inflation data covering 184 countries for the period between January 1971 and December 2020, this paper investigates the role of standard gravity variables on inflation convergence across country pairs.
The convergence analysis by
0
12
87
This paper introduces a simple and tractable approach to forecast international trade.
The main innovation is to calculate non-unitary expenditure elasticities of import demand implied by non-homothetic preferences in the previous year to be further
3
17
91
"Fiscal stability is an effective tool for a successful monetary policy."
1
30
91
This paper uses simulated method of moments (SMM) to estimate sector-level trade elasticity measures:
3
14
90
How can the Turkish central bank reduce inflation? The answer is in this publication:
2
10
87
This paper shows that trade elasticity increases with trade openness across countries.
It is implied that there are diminishing gains from trade across countries with respect to their trade openness.
3
19
85
This paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risk on stock prices of 29 economies by using the local projections method for the monthly period between 1985M1-2023M9.
2
19
84
Introducing and estimating a DSGE model, this paper evaluates the contribution of each competing story in the literature to the Great Trade Collapse:
0
21
84
How does the inflation rate in one country affect the inflation rate in another country? The answer is in this paper:
3
20
83
Using quarterly data on the U.S. imports from its major trading partners and the corresponding trade costs, this paper estimates the trade elasticity by using a panel structural vector autoregressive model that can distinguish between short-run versus long-run elasticity measures
1
22
82
"What Explains Global Inflation" is available as a CEPR Discussion Paper at
@cepr_org
@voxeu
@BaldwinRE
@fiu_sipa
@FIUECON
This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common factor across monthly headline consumer
New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP18690
What Explains Global
#Inflation
Jongrim Ha
@WorldBank
, M. Ayhan Kose
@WorldBank
@BrookingsInst
@CAMacroAnalysis
, Franziska Ohnsorge
@WorldBank
@CAMacroAnalysis
,
@yilmazkuday
@FIU
#CEPR_IMF
#economics
0
6
23
3
23
82
This paper uses a unique monthly data set that covers the overall credit card usage in a small-open economy, Türkiye, to investigate a possible credit channel of monetary policy transmission through credit cards.
4
14
79
Are you looking for a DSGE model that can distinguish between gasoline demand and gasoline supply shocks? This one does it through a transportation sector:
Free working paper version is available at
Blog post is available at
3
22
80
This paper investigates the effects of artificial intelligence on the labor markets of US states.
#ArtificialIntelligence
#EconomicPolicy
2
15
80
Is the global trade driven by demand-side or supply-side factors? The answer is in this publication:
0
14
76
This paper investigates exchange rate pass-through into consumer prices by considering the nature of the shock triggering currency movements.
By individually estimating structural factor-augmented vector autoregression models for 55 countries, monetary
0
12
78
This paper investigates the sources of output volatility by decomposing the international shocks into finance and trade shocks.
Through structural Bayesian estimations of an open-economy DSGE model on 16 countries, on average, it is found that
4
16
76
"Fiscal stability is an effective tool for a successful monetary policy."
► We study the Turkish experience of inflation targeting regime since 2002.
► We estimate Taylor rule models and also investigate the real business-cycle effects of the
0
15
76
THIRD PUBLICATION OF 2024: "Pass-through of shocks into different U.S. prices" is just published at Review of International Economics.
This article estimates the pass-through of different shocks into different U.S. prices that are important for policy
2
15
76
This paper investigates the drivers of Turkish inflation by using a structural vector autoregression model, where monthly data on global oil prices, unemployment rates, inflation rates, policy rates and exchange rates are used.
The empirical results show
1
13
73
*** JUST ACCEPTED ***
"Drivers of International Fiscal Spillovers" has been accepted for publication at Economics & Politics.
This paper investigates the drivers of international fiscal spillovers across 62 countries for the period covering 1970-2021.
Using the local
2
12
74
This brand-new working paper investigates the effects of geopolitical risks on the global shipping costs measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Harper Petersen Charter Rates Index (HARPEX).
The investigation covering the monthly period of
1
22
74
What are the drivers of Turkish inflation? The answer is in this publication:
Free working paper version is available at
#economics
#EconTwitter
#Turkiye
1
16
73
Trade-facilitating gravity variables increase the probability and decrease the half-life of inflation convergence across countries.
"Drivers of Inflation Convergence across Countries: The Role of Standard Gravity Variables" is available at Macroeconomic Dynamics:
1
19
71
Finance accelerates economic growth when inflation is below 8%.
"Thresholds in the Finance-Growth Nexus: A Cross-Country Analysis" is available at The World Bank Economic Review
2
21
73
***************************************
!!! NEW WORKING PAPER !!!
***************************************
This paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risks and global supply chain pressures on global inflation for the monthly period of 1999M1-2022M12.
1
11
70
An exchange rate shock resulting in a real depreciation of 1% is shown to decrease welfare by about 0.80% for the average-income consumer, while this estimate ranges between 0.73% and 0.83% for consumers in the lowest and highest income quintiles.
"Unequal Exchange Rate
1
11
69
Monetary policy shocks are responsible for about one-third of the US output volatility according to the Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model in this publication:
@fiu_sipa
@ELSFinance
1
17
69
What are the drivers of US business cycles? The answer is in this publication:
#EconTwitter
#Economics
2
16
68
This forthcoming paper estimates the pass-through of alternative shocks into different US prices that are important for policy makers.
Oil price pass-through into import prices and producer prices is about 16%, whereas oil price pass-through into
3
15
68
Using monthly headline inflation data covering 184 countries, this paper investigates the role of standard gravity variables on inflation convergence across countries.
The convergence analysis by unit root tests is based on ten-year rolling windows to
1
17
68
What are the effects of energy price shocks on current account balances? The answer is in this publication:
1
10
67
Based on quarterly data on the U.S. imports from its major trading partners and the corresponding trade costs, this paper estimates the trade elasticity by using a panel structural vector autoregressive model.
The estimation can distinguish between
0
12
65