xcollegedropoutbets
@xcollegedrop
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i bet on sports and win, sometimes
Detroit, MI
Joined March 2018
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🐐🐐🐐
16 of Michael Toglia's 34 hits this season have been home runs
That's a 47% clip
(h/t
@AnthonyDiComo
)
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75
2K
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277
so fanduel’s just leaving free money on the board like this? wow
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hey
@DKSportsbook
, wanna do me a favor and increase your limits on mlb props? this is getting embarrassing…
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fanduel masters play 👀👀 (may or may not have caught their intern lacking)
denny mccarthy top 40 +115
fv: -137
ev: 24.3%
qk: 5.28u
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on this mlb SGP for the guardians/tigers game on fanduel:
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draftkings play: deuce vaughn TD +950
fv: 755
ev: 22.8%
qk: .6u
i’m sure this will be pulled relatively soon, seems like dk isn’t aware that dowdle is out 😁😁
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fanduel nuke: tyus jones 10+ points and 10+ assists sgp +803. i am getting around 356 fv and damn near 100% ev, builds insane on fanduel.
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man i hate waiting for futures but it sure is nice to see a solid one cash
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looks like fanatics intern added an extra 0 😭😭😭
fanatics live golf nuke
dg live model gives 1.5% chance
8k fanduel and 6.5k draftkings
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FANDUEL NUKE: keontay ingram touchdown +950
dk has 305, kambi and mgm around 200
rough devig gives 50% ev and 1.4u qk. i also like first td at 5k
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draftkings first td NUKE: brock weight +8000
fv: 4466
ev: 77.4%
qk: .24
clearly mispriced imo, and so is attd at 1400. no circa for that so there will be no devig
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fanduel datagolf nuke:
wilco nienbar group E winner +700
69.5% ev
i recommend 1.66u (1/6 kelly)
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this is what i call a
#passnerbomb
, the parlay on fanduel beats even the uncorrelated fv to draftkings worst case scenario. ☢️☢️☢️
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using my 18% draftkings masters mystery boost here
both plays quite good straight up as well
ev: 47.5%
fv: 246 (-101,-135)
qk: 2.89u
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fanduel first td play: nick westbrook-ikhine +3000 ☢️
fv: 1888
ev: 55.92%
qk: .465u
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fanduel first touchdown play: aidan oconnell +8000
fv: 5191
ev: 53.1%
qk: 0.17u
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fanduel+draftkings datagolf sheets for DPWT after r2
sorted by bet size
bet sizes are $ in qk at $10k bankroll
slim pickings for this one, and 0 top 20s even register
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hammerring ivan cantero 3ball on fanduel, also on draftkings if dead
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11 in the fourth to cash it, 🔥🔥
fanduel play: moses moody 10+ points +330
fv: 251
ev: 22.5%
qk: 1.71u (i am going 1/6)
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missed the monday value drop, so here is the current value for DPWT finish positions on fanduel and draftkings. sorted by bet size, which is in terms of 10k bankroll + quarter kelly. (note: the list has a fd>draftkings hierarchy, so some of the fanduel bets may also be up on dk)
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playing drake women moneyline on fanduel +490
ev (to circa): 19.2%
fv: 395
qk: .98u
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fanduel play: patrick mahomes anytime touchdown scorer +550
fv: 486
ev: 10.9%
qk: .5u
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got in at the best price possible, hopefully you guys were able to as well!
hammerring ivan cantero 3ball on fanduel, also on draftkings if dead
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fanduel 72hole matchup:
cockerill > robin williams -125 DPWT
devig to datagolf below
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clv anyone?
fanatics live golf nuke ☢️
fd and dk at 11k
dg gives .4% chance
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late night fanduel+draftkings datagolf sheets for PGA tomorrow
sorted by bet size
bet sizes are $ in qk at $10k bankroll
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this cashes after a horrendous start!
solo fanduel datagolf play: thirston lawrence group A winner +400
ev: 18.5%
fv: 322
qk: 1.16u
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on this cubs mlb SGP on fanduel, lineups confirmed:
Check out my bet on FanDuel Sportsbook!
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hope everyone got in on skinns. gonna be a sweaty last 20 holes from here
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fanatics live golf nuke
dg live model gives 1.5% chance
8k fanduel and 6.5k draftkings
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fanduel first touchdown play: tucker kraft +8000
fv: 5582
ev: 42.6%
qk: 0.13u
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kevin hurerter 20+ points +550
fv: 489
ev: 10.4%
qk: .47u (i’m going 1/6)
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fanduel first basket method RR using first basket bets, playing relatively low odds today so let’s hit some!
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albies is near/+ev by himself, and gurriel is 8k on 365 compared to 12k fd. combine that with the horrible sgp correlation that fanduel gives and this is what you get. nuke!!!
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overs cleaning up shop today 😏😏
maybe the wind isn’t so bad
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2 more parlays here… using doubles in the padres/jays game. machado, varsho, and tatis are all near/at +ev, and merrifield just happens to build well with his combo. devigs attached after each parlay like always!
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draftkings nhl 33% boost play
fv: 941 (to pinny, better to circa)
ev: 23.8%
qk: .5u
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fanduel first touchdown play: pat friermuth +2000
fv: 1699
ev: 16.7%
qk: .21u
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using my 50% fd boost here, let’s not get screwed again! only fanduel has a line, but i don’t doubt it will be a good price when rest of market releases. ballpark pal gives a fair value of 549, albeit no lineups are released yet
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fanduel personal play: ty montgomery most rush yards +3000
hasty was just ruled inactive and fanduel still has him up, i’m playing for .15 units
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took before at 34k when 8+ receptions was higher odds, definitely a glitch in correlation here
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fanduel: SH kim > endycott 72 hole -110
ev: 12.3%
qk: 3.4u
fv: -143
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sigh…
Ohtani hits a double in his first
@Dodgers
at bat and is called out in a rundown between 2nd and 3rd base.
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fanduel first touchdown play: deven thompkins +10000
fv: 7774
ev: 28.3%
qk: .07u
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fanduel play: cam thomas first basket +950
fv: 700
ev: 31.3%
qk: .82u
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english cashes, uk&i + european deadheat after lowry lips in 18 🤢🤢🤢
playing david skinns top english and uk&i on fanduel, devigs below
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laddering harris english outright, t5, t10, and t20 on fanduel/draftkings. respective devigs in order below!
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fanduel cbb play: charleston v delaware 1h o71.5 -112
fv: -126(pinny 72 line), bm+circa+market at 73.5
ev: 5.4%
qk: 1.5u
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datagolf drop looks to be coming within the next hour. i will be tweeting out finishing positions asap for both PGA and DPWT, so keep notis on. bet sizes in terms of 10k bankroll + 1/4k as always
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fanatics live golf nuke ☢️
fd and dk at 11k
dg gives .4% chance
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fanduel nba alt prop round robin
all lines look decent individually
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to quote the great
@lampbets
, holy cow! jordan walker dinger is a huge outlier to rest of market and when parlayed with these combos can create some crazy ev
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fanduel first touchdown play: tj hockenson +1500
fv: 1100
ev: 33.3%
qk: .56u
someone’s sleeping on jettas news 😴😴
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here’s another one! kepler + buxton double, suarez dinger builds to +11000 on dk and +35580 on fanduel. using draftkings to devig the parlay, i found 87% ev worst case scenario using the correlation that they had.
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fanduel first touchdown play: baker mayfield +6000
fv: 4384
ev: 36%
qk: 0.15u
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using my 50% any boost on dk today on a WNBA future
ev: 55.7% to circa (10k limits)
fv: 234
qk: 3.31u
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now time for some pga since the value is a bit better now. modified output to include betmgm, and also changed true win % column to fair value
missed the monday value drop, so here is the current value for DPWT finish positions on fanduel and draftkings. sorted by bet size, which is in terms of 10k bankroll + quarter kelly. (note: the list has a fd>draftkings hierarchy, so some of the fanduel bets may also be up on dk)
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fanduel first touchdown play: xavier gipson +2800
fv: 2371
ev: 17.36%
qk: .155u
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fanduel play: kevin huerter 15+ points +600
fv: 508
ev: 15.1%
qk: .62u
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another day, another late night NUKE. will jordan westburg hit his first homer today? let’s hope so. parlay builds to 13000 on dk and is 130% ev worst case using dk sgp correlation and homer/double lines
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3:20 AM passner bomb! parlay builds to +9000 on draftkings, and using that to devig gives us 170% ev worst case. ☢️☢️☢️
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cash dort!
fanduel play: lu dort 4+ threes +650
fv: 575
ev: 11.1%
qk: .43u
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parlay builds to 4500 on dk, uncorrelated fv has it at 11168. with dk correlation this is 180% nuke!
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what do you know… cash em both
seager and garcia dingers look good to circa, i’m in for .71 and .58 units respectively
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late night braves nuke… what else is new! parlay builds to +1600 on draftkings and is 12% ev even before you factor in the positive correlation between the two. join
@Cheese_Bets
and
@DodgeballFran
discord using the link in my bio to get +ev plays like this and more every day!
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fanduel + draftkings free arb/middle, go fast. high limits on dk for me
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why do i keep doing this to myself… prob a homer in most other parks
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s/u very dead, but 10+ points 10+ rebounds still at +3527
playing jonathan isaac double double on fanduel, went up to +3700
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fanduel play: lu dort 4+ threes +650
fv: 575
ev: 11.1%
qk: .43u
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small cash tork 4+ hits, 2+ dongs woulda been nice as well but i’ll settle here
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twitter exclusive fanduel play: de’anthony melton 20+ points +600
fv: 540
ev: 9.4%
qk: .39u (i’m going 1/6)
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fanduel first touchdown play: deandre hopkins +1200
fv: 1050
ev: 13%
qk: .27u
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8 and 4 at half, pray for some rebounds
playing jonathan isaac double double on fanduel, went up to +3700
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fanduel 25% nba boost longshot play
fv: 11391
ev: 59%
qk: 0.08u
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*gets one last at bat and gets walked on 4 straight balls*
nico gets walked without swinging at a pitch in what will (likely) be his last at bat after walker and arenado both cashed. i hate kyle leahy
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fanduel first touchdown play: at perry +3,000
fv: 2375
ev: 25.24%
qk: .21u
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draftkings play: quentin johnston touchdown +450
fv: 395
ev: 11.1%
qk: .62u
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unlocked on fd, go! need a masterclass by shaun norris this weekend
for some reason books are only allowing outright bets currently, will update when other finish positions become available. norris available at +1600 on bet365 if that is an option for you 👀
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cash tork 2+ dingers, mentioned earlier in
@Cheese_Bets
and
@DodgeballFran
discord, although he shifted 365 before most could get. join using link in bio for crazy ev bets every single day!
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another parlay for the twins/mariners game, this time without kepler, devigging to dk i got 70.8% ev worst case scenario
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fanduel 72hole matchup:
aiken > brun -115 DPWT
devig to datagolf below
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shoutout to
@FirstBasketBets
, i’ve been KILLING it using his data. been torching fanduel recently!
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👶💰
using my nhl 33% all-purpose boost here
ev: 14%
fv: +108 (probit devig to the worse of pinny/circa)
qk: 2.6u
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trying something new here… parlay builds to 7500 on b365 yet 52k on fanduel
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168% ev parlay using dk college football boost, i reccomend u take advantage. bets like this every day in
@Cheese_Bets
and
@DodgeballFran
discord, link in my bio
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