Vijayanand Venkataraman, CFA
@vijayvenkatram
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Nationalist | Capitalist SEBI Registered Investment Adviser | Former Hedge Fund Manager Macro | Markets | Personal Finance | Sarcasm! Alumnus @UChicago
Chennai, India
Joined June 2012
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List of my pinned tweets here.
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The thread as promised
It all started on Apr 17 (T-2), when
@DrTamilisai4BJP
's husband visited our apartment and one of her team members remarked that they need to find a "booth agent" for our booth that had voters from my apartment and few other apartments.
(1/n)
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781
#adani
#HindenburgReport
The operative part of the report
“short positions in Adani Group Companies through U.S.-traded bonds and non-Indian-traded derivatives, along with other non-Indian-traded reference securities”
(1/n)
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159
547
So what should Adani do with the Bond shorts?
Just announce a buyback thro tender - which bond fund would not tender at par today, considering the price y'day. The borrow gets recalled and short seller has to scramble to cover the shorts!
Interesting week ahead!
(18/n - end)
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Never thought this thread would get these kind of views.
100k in 12 hours!
First time a original thread from me that got over 10k!
Thank you!
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This is the machinery that a new party in TN like BJP needs to replicate. In a state that has 50% swing voters, you need this to push the voters to the booth!
(26/n)
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10
100
When the Polling Officer calls out a S No and name, the “pro agent” calls out the name from the list at a random moment. If the voter does not respond to the name – it’s a red flag. Street smart!
A booth agent has the right to question the identity of the voter.
(31/n)
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It takes around 25-30 secs for recording a vote, from the Polling officer clearing you to vote to him clearing the next person. Cannot stuff 1000 ballots in 1 hour as in the past! Now you know the reason for the clamour of Physical ballots.
(14/n)
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Voters were already queued up. The officers and agents were ready. There was delay of 20-30 secs. A senior gentlemen who was 2 in the queue, probably a retired person from Mumbai that was used to traveling by the CGT – Andheri 6:59 fast local became restless at 7:00.
(12/n)
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@DrTamilisai4BJP
One of the fellow residents (was formerly a District level functionary of BJP from Kongu region) asked If I am game and I accepted with no idea of what it entails.
Think of a trade before analysis!
(2/n)
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My presence did surprise some of them, as they might not have expected a
@BJP4India
rep. One of the suprises in the long list of items for Elections 2024. There were 6 other polling agents. 1 each for ADMK and DMK and 4 representing Independent candidates.
(10/n)
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At 830, one of the fellow agents asked around for breakfast and went out and got the food for everyone. Usually my first meal is at around 1 pm, hence did not have breakfast. And around 930 or so,
@tamilisai4bjp
visited the booth to check if everything was in order!.
(15/n)
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He also said that the team will train me and I can go to the booth by around 9 am and be there till around 630 or so. Sounded like a regular day job (be there before NSE opens and be out after EOD processes and reconciliations by 600 pm).
(3/n)
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What is a Partly Paid share?
#adaniFPO
The motivation for this thread is the comments on SM as well as articles in media that FPO price is significantly higher than Market price.
Although I hinted about this in my previous thread, thought of a primer to explain this.
(1/n)
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@CFASocietyIndia
had a very interesting session at Chennai on Sep 2, 2022 on "Art of Investing" by
@safalniveshak
with
@arun_kumar_r
interacting with him with a great set of questions.
(1/n)
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Someone from the team outside, passes that info to someone in the locality to mobilise voters that have not turned up yet. This is in essence the election day machinery that works like a precision m/c. How effective this works - adds a few % to the winner!
(23/n)
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If you are new party in the mix with limited personnel, here is a
#jugaad
model. With ~20l voters in 6 assembly segments. Approx polling stations of 300-350 with each station having around 5-6 booths for a total of around ~1600+/- booths.
You need 4k and not 12k.
(28/n)
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If you have 400 polling stations, it means around 10000-12000 or even more workers on polling day alone for a single major party in a single parliamentary constituency to cover 20 lac voters. Thats the Feet on Street!
(25/n)
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A thread coming tomorrow on my learnings as a Polling Agent for
@DrTamilisai4BJP
Was a great opportunity to learn poll day management
@annamalai_k
@BJP4India
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Now a serious
#investment
thread
Attended a talk by Pulak Prasad of Nalanda Capital organised by
@cfasocietyindia
A very interesting talk where he explained his philosophy.
But this thread is not about what he said!
(1/n)
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81
The next day I was given the details of a functionary and was asked to reach out. As I do usually, I sent a WA message asking when should I call. No response from him. The post markets on Thursday called him to check and he shared the office location.
(4/n)
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When I reached home, my wife had a long list of things to do that I have been putting off citing lack of time due to work – If you can take out 15 hours on a Friday (NSE was open), you should have time to do this list too!
(43/n)
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Was quite surprised that there were agents for Independent and was asking myself how they managed to get 1600+ agents (answer to this later).
There was a mock poll to check EVM and it was tested, cleared and made ready for real polls. Just in time at 700 am!
(11/n)
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During the day, there was tea @ 830, nannari sarbath @ 1100, butter milk @ 1200 & 1400 and then coffee @ 1600 – for everyone.
The initial tension gave way to a friendly banter and they were pulling each other's legs (akka - anna - thambi etc).
(19/n)
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One of the senior citizen volunteers from
@BJP4TN
came in to check and got me curd rice for lunch! Curd rice never felt yummy. It was 2 pm and it became silent! By now, everyone was relaxed and were checking for trends in the other booths within the station.
(17/n)
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4k and mobile phones to find a voter’s booth & serial number. But they need to work a couple days earlier. Sheer presence outside a polling station will comfort your supporters. While it will be nice to have the agents know the voters, it may not be required!
(29/n)
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The most interesting talk for me today
@TIA_Investors
Bullet Proof Seminar was the one by Mr Rajiv Khanna.
1/n
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Back to the “Lead Agent” – a seasoned pro that had seen elections for 25-30 years and had stories from elections in 90's. He is the most important person for a party inside the polling station – someone the rookies look upto when there is an issue inside the booth.
(27/n)
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Polling was brisk and fast. Our booth had the longest queue in the station. Looking at the nos and the pace, think the peak capacity is around 90-100 votes / hr/ EVM, while Time & motion study may suggest a bit higher as it may or may not account for complexities
(13/n)
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So 2 volunteers to relieve each other and alternate during the polls. The folks at the office were quite pressed for time and briefly explained my role and repeated a few times to collect a summary form in original. I realised that it was probably the Most important thing!
(7/n)
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By 12 noon, the crowds started trickling down. Asked one of the DMK agents on how much they expect. His answer was – it was around 40-45% in 2021. Post noon, the activity levels dropped and the agents asked around on who wants what for lunch.
(16/n)
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While I have a prediction and an hypothesis on who is likely to win, will reserve it for Jun 1.
But 37/44 has a clue!
And 44/n may be a clue too!
Thanks to
@DolphinSrithar
ji for this opportunity!
(44/n - end)
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Being the first timer it was overwhelming and I went in as I went into my Heat and Mass Transfer exam in 1997 (BTW, I aced it with almost a perfect score!). Assumed everything would be fine and came back home and slept well.
Now to the D day!
(8/n)
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All of us started talking. I realised that they all live in the same street and they knew each other very well. Each of them were doing different tasks and they seem to work in groups tacitly. One was marking Male / Female, one of them just ticking off names in booklet.
(20/n)
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When I went there, him and his team was sweating out getting kits ready for the entire Assembly Segment. Handed over my photo etc for them to prepare my credentials and went back at 11 pm to collect the kit.
(5/n)
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#ITC
Assuming
INR 55-60/ share value for FMCG
INR 25-30/ share of Cash
INR 10-15/ share value for others
The residual value of
#cigarettes
business would be
INR 70 (at 165)
INR 50 (at 145)
INR 30 (at 125)
It would no more be a sin stock!
Becomes an FMCG stock
@dmuthuk
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The kit containing a seal to affix on laquer, a writing pad with few sheets, a notepad, writing instruments, a numbering sheet. In hindsight I should have checked the kit for its contents.
There was another volunteer at my booth and he had taken with him the voter list.
(6/n)
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Ours was the highest – both in nos and % (more on this later). One of the agents went out to vote at her polling station and came back to say the turnout at her booth was abysmal and people were just lazing around!
She was like - why is that I have to do all the work
(18/n)
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These adds up to volunteer
#s
in a big way.
2 agents / booth makes it 10 agents/ station (assuming 5 booths) + Tacit coop with independents + party workers outside polling station on either side of road. So say around 25-30 / station / party.
(24/n)
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Looks like the main copy goes to the central data centre of the party for analysis, the carbon copy goes to the team waiting outside the station, where a second team checks the list to see, if there is some one that is “expected” to vote has not turned up.
(22/n)
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The alarm rang at 500. Snoozed the alarm and woke up at 530. Reached my assigned booth at 550. There were 5 booths in the polling station. The officers had already set up the EVM. Battery driven. Handed over my papers and took up a seat at a spot I thought would be airy.
(9/n)
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@Bhaarath383
@DrTamilisai4BJP
It was first time for many. An acquaintance from Oracle, one from L&T all volunteered.
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They had different formats with carbon copies and it was brilliant. The formats were tearble booklets (format later). Every hour or so, a Lead agent (more about him later) comes around to collect the tearble sheets and check the voting trend.
(21/n)
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While
@BJP4India
campaign, leadership of
@narendramodi
ji and charisma of
@annamalai_k
has create the product and branding – the election day management will be the equivalent of Sales & Distribution – the last mile connect to the voter to get them to vote.
(34/n)
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65
Meet the Market Masters - Mr Anil Kumar Goel, in conversation with
@shyamsek
@CFASocietyIndia
, Chennai
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#SVB
a short thread
Banking is a business of borrowing in the short end and lending at the longer end with some element of credit risk thrown in for higher spread.
So it should not come as a surprise that a bank has A-L mismatch. Its part and parcel of banking!
(1/n)
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The difference between BJP outside TN and in TN is the last mile connect to voter. I hope Phase II for
@annamalai_k
is to create this connect! Build or Acquire the last mile connect. That was available after JJ's demise and were looking for a leader.
(34/n)
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Video recording of polling and other verification methods have reduced the need for numerical strength. And during the day I learnt a few tricks of the trade from the pros!
(30/n)
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EPS has consolidated his hold over this last mile network between 2017 – 2021. A electoral loss to EPS in 2024 will make that available in pockets and BJP should not hesitate to induct last mile functionaries (the Distributor/ Departmental store equivalent of FMCG).
(35/n)
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Specialist short sellers have exploited the weakness in chinese macro over the years to short (usually dubious) stocks listed in US with similar reports and reveal.
This could be a start for looking at vulnerable Indian businesses and we may have more in future!
(10/n)
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54
#TVK
founder Joseph Vijay will speak long and hard against
#capitalism
in his movies while renting out their property to
#reliance
.
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This is for everyone interested in Economics. Must follow!
Blog by V Anantha Nageswaran (VAN), Member, PMEAC, GoI
The man is not on Twitter!
@dugalira
@ananthng
@andymukherjee70
@livemint
@BloombergQuint
@CafeEconomics
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When the poll time ended, the officials displayed the total votes, sealed with laquer and affixed the official seal, handed over the summary form. I submitted the form at the party office – took a few pens as souvenir and walked back home with an experience of a lifetime
(42/n)
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48
Meet the Market Masters
- a new series of events by
@CFASocietyIndia
Today we have
@KhivrajNaresh
interviewing Shri Govind Bhai Parikh at Chennai
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50
@svembu
And the fact that he has your number (assuming its a forward on Arattai) speaks more about you than anything that has been written.
🙌
0
1
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This is why i love
@TIA_Investors
We have Rajeev Khanna, making his first ever public appearance.
Bullet Proof Investing Seminar 2023!
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45
As we close out on 2026 is going to be tougher as its not a vote for Modi, but will be a call for double-engine government in TN and fought on local issues!
(36/n)
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45
When the polling ended – the Head agent’s body language was not too great or he is a good poker player!
The way I see the turnout – while there is no big change in the nos over 2019, the booth level data may tell you a different story. Candidates have that data.
(37/n)
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45
@shyamsek
Thats what cyclical investing is about. Ride the cycle. Step down. Pick a coffee can. Wait for the next cycle. Ride it again.
The cycle continues.
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46
One of the other party agents asked me “Enna sir ungala kandukkavae maatendraanga” [No one is taking care of you]. Now that’s a psy-war that can put one down! With me being an unknown person to the party folks and a last minute
#upma
agent, no one except folks from my
(32/n)
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44
Some notes for polling agents in future:
1. While its good to use tech and printers, nothing beats the muscle memory of writing it down. Write the name and s. no by hand in a booth slip. When the voter walks in – you may remember faster and better.
(39/n)
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44
To build a position it would take significant time to build any meaningful position! And shorting bonds are not cheap. The cost would be "interest+borrow fee", and could run into 10-12% in total.
Unless there is a credit event round the corner, short bonds is a bad idea
(4/n)
1
5
44
10 Takeaways from
#Investment
events of the last 2 days at
#Chennai
1. To be a disciplined investor, personal discipline is very important
2. Ideation can be borrowed, but need to develop your own conviction with research
(1/n)
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44
What does this mean
(a) They may be Short Bonds issued by Adani in US
(b) Short non-Indian-traded derivatives
(c) short other non-Indian-traded "reference securities"
(2/n)
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3
43
apartment acknowledged my presence and I could not identify the party folks given that I was parachuted in T-2 – maybe a morning huddle with fellow booth agents could have helped. If you are rookie agent, ensure you meet up before the D-Day!
(33/n)
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42
Profile update: Principal Officer of a SEBI Registered Investment Adviser!
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3
42
2. Ensure the booth slip has the image of the EVM unit with the name and S# of the candidate.
A few seniors struggled to locate!
(40/n)
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Watch their body language. They carry clues. While there would be lot of noise on media, we will know the reality in June.
(38/n)
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Shorting Bonds:
Adani Bonds are likely to be part of an universe called High Yield - EM bonds.
They is practically no secondary market of any noticeable size or liquidity. If you want to buy or sell, you reach out a bond broker, who will find a seller or buyer.
(3/n)
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2
39
If any of the BJP candidate in TN feels that they came second on their own should go back and see the votes that they won in the past.
Most of their votes are votes for
@narendramodi
as PM and
@annamalai_k
as Leader of TN BJP.
2
1
39
1983 - India wins. Indira Gandhi killed
2003 - India loses final. Ruling party loses next election (2004)
2011 - India wins final. Ruling party loses next election (2014)
Looks like India making it to Finals of ODI WC is not good for ruling party.
8
3
37
One of the best sessions at the
@AlgoConvention
was reserved for almost the end.
@asitbaran
was brilliant!
Waiting for the video recordings to hear him again!
9
2
35
Distressed businesses are finally seeing cleanup/ exit/ new owners
Toast to a new growth cycle in India.
2
1
35
That takes me to the (c) and this makes it an interesting position!
I would tend to think
@HindenburgRes
is not just short Adani Group, but short more than just Adani.
(6/n)
2
4
35
I will be live at around 1 pm on NewsRoom of
@ETNOWlive
with
@Ajaya_buddy
First time live on National TV!
13
3
35
3. Meet the fellow polling agents in the AM before the process starts
A nice format below (with carbon copy)
(41/n)
1
2
33
When I speak to people, the usual push-back is this position could have been built over a time or could have been built as an OTC derivative product - OTC is possible (which is (b) in the second tweet).
But still cost of short is high, and so would be the breakeven point
(5/n)
1
3
33
Reading the "and" and "," in Tweet (1)
my sense is they may be short one of the Indian ETFs listed overseas, probably short the bank ADRs (and even GDRs, but poor liquidity), which explains the wording! [I may be totally wrong]
(7/n)
2
2
33
With FPIs selling over the last month or so, the stars may as well align.
And this report may just be a smokescreen for "shock and awe"
(9/n)
1
3
32
There is immense liquidity in both Indian ETFs as well as Bank ADRs! - Can be both direct and thro' a structure.
But for this trade to work, you need stars to align with a weak macro, liquidity withdrawal etc!
(8/n)
1
2
31
Dr Ananthanageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor
@CFASocietyIndia
event at Chennai.
"Preparing the Indian Economy for Amrit Kaal amidst Global Uncertainty"
#India
#Macro
#AmritKaal
1
5
30
Middle class India has become complacent due to Income and wealth effect of 90's & beyond. And this complacency is feeding into wokism!
Time we all get a tight slap!
2
2
29
Felt good to wear a traditional veshti at
@TIA_Investors
20-20 summit a couple of weeks ago, although the idea was not so traditional!
Some of the folks that attended the
@TIA_Investors
20-20 event on Feb 17, 2024 requested for the slide pack.
Uploaded here on my LinkedIn page
1
4
20
1
0
29
So what does it mean for the FPO?
The FPO is not on Adani Ent - CE, but its Adani Ent - Partly Paid or PP. They are not the same!
PP is a leveraged bet on the CE. [Look at Bharti vs Bharti PP].
(14/n)
3
4
28
What now?
This saga has more hair pin bends then the road to Tirumala!
6
3
27
@DerekJGrossman
UN is just a winners club post WW2 that allowed Tier 2 membership for other except the veto holding members.
Just wondering how China get veto rights!
5
0
22
They saved the best for the last one in the day at
@CFASocietyIndia
's
#VIP
summit
A free wheeling conversation with Mr Vallabhbhai Bhansali of Enam Holdings by Mr Navneet Munot, MD & CEO of
@hdfcmf
Did not realise what I had in store for me!
A thread
(1/n)
3
6
27
Typically they use a NIFTY 50 or a NIFTY100 stock as collateral for trading other stocks or for even writing options, - low haircut. A rising stock used as margin - one expect to make money on both!
So my hypothesis is a margin call on Friday (and I may be wrong).
(12/n)
1
3
26
Was at the Value Investing Pioneer
#VIP
summit of
@CFASocietyIndia
on Nov 19 at Delhi.
The session on Art of Investing by Rajashekar Iyer was brilliant and it covered quite a few aspects of investing
A thread
(1/n)
1
5
26
So when Adani says the FPO will happen at the price, all they need to do to incentivise is to push the call date well into future - deal done as it increases the FV.
If I am on the book or the ECM on the deal - this is what I would do!
(17/n)
1
3
25
What is the FV of Adani Ent (PP) with respect to Adani Ent (CE).
In this case the upfront is 50% followed by calls later - the quantum and timing of the calls will determine the fair value!
(15/n)
1
3
25