Why Tesla's Bot May Actually Outpace Tesla’s FSD – Hear Out My Reasoning The longer I mull over this, the harder it becomes to shake off the notion that Tesla's humanoid, the Tesla Bot, might just sprint ahead of the whole autonomous car revolution. Here's why this idea isn't as far-fetched as it sounds. Self-Driving Cars: No Room for Slip-Ups When it comes to cars driving themselves, there's zero wiggle room for mistakes. I mean, would you let your kids hop into a self-driving car if there was even a tiny doubt about its safety? Didn't think so. It's gotta be 100% or nothing. But it's not just about the risk; it's also about the speed of decision-making. FSD has to consistently make split-second decisions, all while dealing with less-than-ideal conditions like darkness, rain, snow, you name it. On the flip side, Tesla Bot will have the luxury of time on its hands. It'll operate under near-perfect conditions and even have the opportunity to pull wisdom from other sources when in a bind, like "I'm not sure how to do X... let me consult an LLM for ideas on tackling this Tesla Bot: Chill, It's Just a Robot Tesla Bot doesn't need to be perfect; it just needs to get the job done. Drops a package? No biggie. A minor mishap here and there doesn't spell catastrophe. And if it hits a snag in a factory, it's no drama — it can simply signal a human pal for a bit of teamwork. What's more, this tireless trooper can hustle round the clock with just brief timeouts, outperforming human colleagues without even a hint of a sweat. Its resilience and adaptability underscore a more forgiving environment, contrasting sharply with the high-stakes realm of FSD. The Real Deal with Self-Driving Tech Making a car drive itself is insanely tough, especially with those rare, bizarre situations. A car needs to be super smart, fully aware of its surroundings to ensure safety. Paradoxically, the Tesla Bot might be the key to advancing FSD, not the other way around. While Tesla's cars navigate in a somewhat flat 2.5D world, the Bot engages with the full complexity of 3D life and its oddities. This unique perspective could provide crucial insights, making the Bot's work potentially pivotal for the future of autonomous driving. Hard to Relate? It might be hard to grasp, but AI shines in scenarios where we can afford multiple attempts to achieve a goal. Think about generating an article with ChatGPT or crafting a YouTube thumbnail with Dall-e. It's often a game of probabilities, where success might come after 10-20 tries. For the Tesla Bot, the success formula is akin to a sum of probabilities. If we let P represent the probability of the Bot completing a task successfully on a single attempt, then the chance of success over N attempts increases with each try, approaching certainty as N grows. Mathematically, it's represented as ( 1 - (1 - P)^N), where (1 - P) is the chance of failure on each attempt, and raising it to the power of N calculates the probability of failing every single time. Subtracting this from 1 gives us the probability of at least one success. Conversely, for FSD, the equation is more stringent. If P is the probability of making a correct decision at a given moment, then the probability of making N correct decisions in a row is P^N. This 'and' logic means that the overall success rate diminishes with each additional decision point, making the challenge exponentially harder. This stark contrast in probability models highlights why progress on the Tesla Bot might outpace FSD development, as the margin for error and the approach to achieving 'success' differ fundamentally between the two technologies. The Big Picture When it boils down to it, messing up with a robot doesn't have the same heavy vibe as messing up with a car that could put lives at risk. And that's why, in this tech race, Tesla's Bot might just be the dark horse that crosses the finish line first. Keep your eyes peeled – the future's coming at us fast, and it's packed with surprises. #tesla #fsd #fsdbeta @jamesdouma @GoingBallistic5 @DrKnowItAll16 - My knowledge of AI is limited, so please forgive my ignorance. I would be extremely grateful for your input on where and why I might be mistaken... or perhaps I'm onto something here.

@HonestEVs @Tesla @Tesla_AI @aelluswamy calibrate your cameras, bro

@gas_biz You should ask how much it will cost after the warranty, and it will be much lower

RT @SawyerMerritt: Ford CEO Jim Farley said yesterday that the company is getting closer to deciding on whether to partner with another com…

@garyblack00 Costs of operation, Garry

@BorusewiczAdam Z ciekawości, ile razy byłeś w Chinach?

@BorusewiczAdam Powód? Tesla ma problem z trenowaniem modeli dla Chin. Chiny nie pozwalają na przesyłanie nagrań z własnych ulic poza swój kraj (względy bezpieczeństwa), tymczasem USA nie pozwalają eksportować do Chin chipów niezbędnych do trenowania AI.

RT @HansCNelson: Got FSD v12.6.3 this morning. My first impression. FSD is ALMOST SOLVED. It is a HUGE improvement over v12.5.4 in every…

RT @SawyerMerritt: NEWS: Rivian has introduced their all-electric commercial van. • Starting price: $79,990 • Deliveries begin in April •…

@FredericLambert Just short the stock :)

@neuralink target for 2025?

@corbinwilliams @DOGE Haha!

@FredericLambert False

RT @adcock_brett: Today, I made the decision to leave our Collaboration Agreement with OpenAI Figure made a major breakthrough on fully en…

@PolitiReality People are waiting for new Model Y - the most popular model of the car in the world, both in 2023 & 2024

@teslaownerspl to pewne, że będzie tam nowy Model Y?

@WholeMarsBlog don't make the work of stupid people more visible

@RealDanODowd @Tesla @NHTSAgov Meanwhile: This is considered a successful Waymo drive.

@RyanTanaka3 We should discuss this topic more, as WHOLE humanity will be force to get earlier retirement because of humanoid bots taking over all the jobs in next 20 years.

@RyanTanaka3 I don't believe in a retirement

Bought 2 more shares of #TSLA. I now have 643 shares of #Tesla.