tradingrust
@tradingrust
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Joined February 2022
@FREESPEECH1017 @TMFAssociates @dan_tmt How do you spend all day long posting culture warrior bullshit and then turn around write stuff like this? 🤣 Nice writeup.
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Great thread from Alex about retail psychology.
Trading against groups of investors is a theory of mind game Dividend investors are the easiest to model, they care only about yield and you can assume marginal players don’t read financial statements. So they will pay up for a big, poorly covered div, and sell on the cut.
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@U5sigma2 @planert41 Me in bull markets and rotations into my factors: Fuck, I'm being a pussy! Me when the black swan sings: Damnit, I was actually being an idiot.
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@b_jim27261 @eliant_capital @pennycheck Full porting anything even remotely related to Anduril. Thank me later. TIFA
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See this pattern repeatedly. Fans of the current DOGE slash n burn go "hol' up a minute" whenever the eye of sauron turns on something they have deeper knowledge of. It's a form of Gell-Mann Amnesia. IMO this is pervasive and will keep GOP from being cohesive on most DOGE cuts.
I get the fun in bashing the Fed for 24K+ employees, but it shows ignorance of the Fed. Monetary policy formulation and implementation is a tiny sliver of what they do. Payment processing, bank examination, etc. is the majority of the work. Cut 80% of them and the econ halts.
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@OddDiligence Is there anything left? Feels like the market doesn't quite quite believe this is the finish line.
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@SharpeShark It's going to be Academi (formerly known as Xe/Blackwater) and then they are going to have to change their name again and also Erik Prince will buy another house.
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@MarcACaputo Currently "No" is .44 to get 1.00 back. The rub is the definition - reduced in any quarter. Happened 8 times since 2008 by my count. And I'm really not sure why - guessing it has to do with timing of tax revenue vs outflows.
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@KevinLMak Kevin, do you express these flow views standalone or as something like L/S CLMT/IWM to isolate your view on inclusion & flows versus the bigger market backdrop? Just curious. Feel like you are right but also feel like small cap town is ignoring smoke from the nearby volcano.
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