Ferg
@trader_ferg
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Following
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Statuses
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Full-time trader for 8yrs now. Currently, in uranium, oil and coal. Sharing my research and thoughts about trades I'm in or considering. BJJ obsessed.
Bali
Joined December 2019
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Pinned Tweet
Latest post is up with some thoughts on
#uranium
and positioning.
Link in my bio
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The millennial 60/40 portfolio appears to be
60% $TSLA
40% $BTC
And 100% inability to shut up about them
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4K
Renewables are the socialists in energy
They only work part-time and expect the government to support them
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The subprime crisis was packaging low-quality assets together and pretending they were high quality.
The energy crisis roots lie in building low EROI energy sources and pretending they are high EROI.
The latter is far worse since you can’t print your way out of the problem.
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1K
Everyones obsessed with physical diet
Mental diet never gets mentioned
Consuming Netflix, video games, and scrolling social media is the equivalent of sugar & trans fat packed fast food
Watch your intake carefully so you don't end up mentally obese and going nowhere in life
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1K
"Commodities are 50% cheaper than their lowest point in
50years and would need to outperform financial assets by
over 700% just to reach the long term mean"
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"No amount of evidence will ever convince an idiot." -Mark Twain
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Anyone here an ESG consultant?
I don't need your help or anything.
Just want to remind you that you add nothing to society.
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Most people don't actually want millions
They just want to be free from bullshit
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Just a friendly reminder
Last
#uranium
bull market there was a 72m lb surplus 5 years out.
Not once did the market go into deficit.
Now we have somewhere north of 55m lbs in deficit.
This time it's a supply story and no short-term spike is going to balance this market.
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1K
"Every past market crash looks like an opportunity, but every future market crash looks like a risk" -
@morganhousel
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"Ban coal!"
You do realise an EV chassis requires 700kgs of met coal.
A wind turbine requires 268 tonnes of met coal.
Solars cheapness owes a large part to cheap thermal coal in Xinjiang
The green transition requires millions of tonnes of steel for which met coal is essential
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Renewables are the socialists in energy
They only work part-time and expect the government to support them.
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863
Renewables are the socialists in energy
They only work part-time and expect the government to support them.
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"You already know how to get a six-pack, become a better writer, or get rich, all the information for that is available, the only requirement is to do the work"
@naval
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Developed countries trying to ban developing countries from using fossil fuels is like pulling the ladder up after you’ve used it.
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I've learned the hard way, you're better off not mentioning names you invested in, to friends and family.
As they can always copy the investment but never the conviction
And having conviction in a volatile stock is everything
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I'm glad the important shit is getting resolved
"Google has removed the egg from its salad emoji in order to make it more inclusive for vegans. Jennifer Daniel, who works as a user experience manager for Google, announced the change on Twitter."
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"Every past market crash looks like an opportunity, but every future market crash looks like a risk" -
@morganhousel
Damn this is good
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Never sit on a loser hoping it gets back to breakeven.
Just sell it and put it into something you have conviction in.
You don't need to make your money back the way you lost it.
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Not only are the utilities short uranium.
Politicians are short “acceptable”energy.
#Uranium
wins big on both accounts
Get long and stay long. Don’t over think it.
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There seems to be a consensus overestimation of what technology has enabled society to achieve and an underestimation of what cheap energy has enabled.
Reality is about to correct this misunderstanding.
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People will obsess over sports teams when they could be doing the same with sectors and companies which will directly affect their future.
Obsess over things that have the ability to improve the quality of your life.
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Picking multi-baggers isn't hard
Letting them turn into multi-baggers is
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Most people don't actually want millions
They just want to be free from bullshit
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"High oil prices will drive EV adoption"
What if battery metals prices rise quicker than oil?
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A whole generation is about to get educated on the concept of intrinsic value.
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The uranium price is as likely to stop at $60lb
as a pendulum is likely to stop in the center mid-swing
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Underappreciated achievements
-No boss
-No meetings
-No schedule
-No one needs to contact me urgently
-No Linkedin
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I’m not that smart or insightful.
I’m just balls to the wall in a sector that’s entering an epic bull market.
So everything I say will be supported by price action.
Which will make me seem smart and insightful.
#uranium
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Black Swan = unpredictable or unforeseen event
Grey Swan = significant event whose possible occurrence may be predicted beforehand but probability is considered small
Green Swan = predictable event involving fucking up the energy system with low EROI intermittent energy sources
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Believing you'll know the exact moment to take your
chips off the table in a bull market is the biggest lie we tell ourselves.
Gradually scaling out is the only practical way to exit.
Yes, you'll miss the top.
Yes, you'll leave a lot of gains on the table.
Accept it.
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I get the feeling energy is going to break a lot of things moving forward.
It is the thing Central Bankers and Government have no control over.
They can manipulate bonds and rates all they like but they can't print oil and gas.
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If you aren’t comfortable adding to your losers then you need to have a hard conversation with yourself as to why they are still in your portfolio.
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If oil heads north of $150 a barrel would everyone still want a green energy transition?
Or would people be more worried about their standard of living and getting cheap energy again?
I'm guessing the latter...
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Real resources are becoming increasingly scarce
Money is becoming increasingly abundant
Position accordingly
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Taking original capital off the table with winners will cost you a lot in the long run
Never trim asymmetry
Position size correctly then leave it the f
#ck
alone
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Oil is essential to humanity for the next decade or two minimum.
Everything denying this is spin.
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Nearly half of the global population is fed by synthetic nitrogen fertilisers (Haber–Bosch process requiring natural gas, coal or fuel oil)
Then consider fertilizer accounts for as much as 70% of the production cost of rice & corn
Then add harvest, processing, transport, etc
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Believing you'll know the exact moment to take your
chips off the table in a bull market is the biggest lie we tell ourselves.
Gradually scaling out is the only practical way to exit.
Yes, you'll miss the top.
Yes, you'll leave a lot of gains on the table.
Accept it.
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40
561
"If only I had brought Amazon at IPO and held"
This close to zero chance you would have stomached the volatility.
1997 share price was $1
1999 = $113
2001 = $5
2006 = $36
2007 = $113
2008 = $51
Stomaching volatility is the price you pay for massive outperformance
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ⓘ 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴
Biden: "I'm sick of this stuff ... the American people think the reason for inflation is government spending more money. Simply not true!"
🤔
5K
2K
6K
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"Germany to close all 84 of its coal-fired power plants, will rely primarily on Putin for gas and French nuclear"
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Fertilizer accounts for as much as 70% of the production cost of rice and corn.
"The latest surge in fertilizers will raise costs for many farmers in Asia and risks pushing up rice prices in a region where the vast majority of the world’s supply is produced and consumed"
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Sweet baby Jesus
Thought they might up it a bit, like $400-500m but $1.3B 🤯
#uranium
@Sprott
Physical Uranium Trust
#SPUT
has amended its At The Market (ATM) prospectus for up to US$1,300,000,000 of transferable, non-redeemable trust units in Canada.
#uranium
#nuclearpower
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If you want to be well rewarded, you have to be early.
If you want to be early, you have to be patient.
If you want to be patient, you have to have conviction.
If you want to have conviction, you have to do the research and stop listening to everyone that hasn't.
#uranium
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Europe is going to lose this game of "energy musical chairs" over and over again to the likes of China.
China; Locking in 27year Qatar LNG contracts
Europe; "we're waiting for legal clarity about how this will impact our decarbonisation goals."
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"University degrees are the new taxi medallions." -
@naval
What else is equally overvalued in society currently?
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The current US power mix is:
~60% fossil fuels: 25% coal and 35% nat gas.
~20% nuclear
~20% Renewables 7.3% Hydro, 8.4% wind, 2.3% solar and 1.4% biomass.
Physically impossible, yet even if wasn't, might pay to observe how Germany and California are going with this plan...
President Biden: "We've set a goal that by 2025 our power sector will be free of carbon."
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Accept you’ll be early
Accept there will be multiple drawdowns
Accept asymmetry is backloaded and it will be a long and volatile ride
Accept you’ll get out early having left gains on the table
It will all look obvious in hindsight
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The only thing that socialism will eventually solve in western countries is the obesity crisis
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Feels like a good time to get involved in Twitter again now that all the cheerleaders have been carried out.
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Knock-on effects of high prices
Natural gas -> Fertiliser -> Food -> social stability
Oil -> Fucking everything
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Believing you'll know the exact moment to take your
chips off the table in a bull market is the biggest lie we tell ourselves.
Gradually scaling out is the only practical way to exit.
Yes, you'll miss the top.
Yes, you'll leave a lot of gains on the table.
Accept it.
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26
359
Few people have the discipline to exit the party just as the strippers turn up.
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I swear Dad would have got interested in mowing lawns if I'd decided that was my calling.
I hope I can one day be half the father to my children, he has been to me.
And simply be interested in whatever makes them happy, whatever that may entail.
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Watching supply destruction occur in commodities is like counting cards in blackjack.
You may not be able to predict the future but you can have a damn good idea of how much the odds are shifting in your favour over time.
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25
338
Picking multi-baggers isn't hard
Letting them turn into multi-baggers is
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A history of oil with The Economist covers
It's one of the better contrarian indicators
Drowning in Oil
March 6th, 1999
Oil = $17 barrel
Impressive timing.
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Explain "why EROI matters" to a 10-year-old
When energy is plentiful you can use more stuff to make less energy
When energy is scarce you must use less stuff to make more energy
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This is going to age like raw chicken left out in the sun
@RemindMe_OfThis
'in a year'
I still think oil & oil stocks are in the process of topping out for the cycle.I see very little upside & lots of downside over the next yr.I expect oil to fall to $25 in next yr's bust.Bonds are poised for a nice rally in coming wks with 10yr yields likely headed for 1.35%-1.40%
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The millennial 60/40 portfolio appears to be
60% $TLSA
40% $BTC
And 100% inability to shut up about them
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Energy return on energy invested
Nuclear 100:1
Fossil Fuels 30:1
Wind & solar 1:1 to 4:1
Progress has always occurred by moving up the energy density ladder.
Everything else is noise
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#Uranium
spot purchases announcements just keep coming!
$YCA require $KAP purchases additional 3.5m lbs
$YCA additional 440k lbs + $28m leftover so 1m lbs?
$CCJ purchase 10m lbs +
$DNN purchase 2.5m lbs
$UEC purchase 1.4m lbs
$BOE purchase 1.25m lbs
$URC purchase 338k lbs
$U ??
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Thread
“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.” -Winston Churchill
Germany
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Lazy effort but you get the idea
$CCJ $4.9B
$KAP $4.6B (25%)
$NXE $1B
$UUUU $526m
$DNN $472m
$PDN $510m
Total approx $12B round to $14B for everything I've left out.
So for $14B, you could buy a big chunk of the producers that provide power to 10% of the globe.
Crazy
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Down to the lowest cash levels I've had in a long time (2%)
So a sharp correction is probably imminent...
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Never sit on a loser hoping it gets back to breakeven.
Just sell it and put it into something you have conviction in.
You don't need to make your money back the way you lost it.
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The energy trade explained
Understanding a fruit tree takes 5years to reach production
The activists decide fruit is too high in sugar
The govt & BlackRock get behind activists
They ban planting & encourage cutting down trees
Where do you think the price of is fruit going?
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Most people don't actually want millions
They just want to be free
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"Renewable energy comes from sources that are not depleted when used but are replenished naturally."
I wasn’t aware wind turbines and solar panels were replenished naturally.
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Thread
There is one attribute I think is hugely underrated.
My Dad is the best example of it that I know of
which has had a huge effect on the direction of my life.
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Thou shall not
Trim a multibagger
Rebalance a multibagger
Trade around a multibagger
You don’t “trim” asymmetry
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Shorting is f
#cking
hard
Save yourself a lot of pain and stress and never short stock
The time is better spent hunting out multibaggers then letting them run
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The lower emissions the west has achieved to date are largely due to:
-no population growth
-low economic growth
-outsourcing manufacturing to developing countries
-A natural gas glut causing coal to gas switching
ESG has achieved absolutely f
#ckall
in emissions reduction.
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Most people don't actually want millions
They just want to be free
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Tina will eventually force global policymakers to embrace nuclear as the only viable solution.
Tina = There is no alternative
#uranium
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Toyota President Akio Toyoda said Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if all cars were running on electric power. The infrastructure needed to support a fleet consisting entirely of EVs would cost Japan between ¥14 & ¥37 trillion, the equivalent of $135B to $358B
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Watching supply destruction occur in commodities is like counting cards in blackjack.
You may not be able to predict the future but you can have a damn good idea of how much the odds are shifting in your favour over time.
10
28
285
Everyones obsessed with physical diet
Mental diet never gets mentioned
Consuming Netflix, video games, and scrolling social media is the equivalent of sugar & trans fat packed fast food
Watch your intake carefully so you don't end up mentally obese and going nowhere in life
17
31
283
Few charts to explain why I'm a huge oil bull over the next few years.
The trajectory of oil supply declines(ESG continues to make it steeper)
Even the
@IEA
sustainable development demand forecast is still a lot higher than supply
Let alone if assume ~1% historic demand growth
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283
"Successful trading is like getting pregnant.
Everyone congratulates you on it but no one asks you how many times you got fucked first"
@Trader_Dante
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280
The subprime crisis was packaging low-quality assets together and pretending they were high quality.
The energy crisis roots lie in building low EROI energy sources and pretending they are high EROI.
The latter is far worse since you can’t print your way out of the problem.
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276
The look of joy as he no longer has to listen to me carry on about how undervalued energy companies are here.
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Uranium is actually my second favorite commodity.
My first is time.
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S&P 500 Energy weights
1980 = 27%
1999 = 5%
2009 = 14%
2020 = 3%
“Rule No. 1: Most things will prove to be cyclical. – Rule No. 2: Some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget Rule No. 1.”
-Howard Marks
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Revisited the coal thesis today.
You can find a link to it in my description.
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Oil is essential to humanity for the next decade or two minimum.
Everything denying this is spin.
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I worked for a summer as a barman in a French Chateau
Before every party night, we would ask all the female guests to coordinate the use of hair straighteners & hairdryers as otherwise, it would blow fuses
Never worked
It's a decent analogy for EVs and the state of the US grid
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