Jamie
@torovictorioso
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Multiple S curves will make the roaring 20s an amazing opportunity. $SQ and $TSLA lover, Fintech Specialist.
The world
Joined November 2020
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Put 50% of your portfolio in $TSLA $SQ $SNAP $PLTR $TWTR $SHOP then go more aggressive on the other 50%: crypto, mid caps, etc. You can thank me later, and a pint of guinness.
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Deflation, consumer buyers strike is working. A lot of inflation was price gouging by greedy corporations.
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The $SQ pitch.
Key points
▪︎ A dramatic change in mission and management style including passion and focus
▪︎ The idea of 0 to 1 and being a market leader
▪︎ Daily engagement of consumer apps changes the business model
▪︎ A single unified platform
▪︎ Urgency around
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@StockMarketNerd
$GME isn't a fundamentals trade, it was a strategy trade. 140% short is impossible to cover so engineering a squeeze is clever. Usually it's the hedge funds that do engineered trades but this time they are the victims. So in a way your thinking is boomer like to the teenagers.
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$SQ Going Deep.👀
Overview
Block is attacking on multiple fronts in 2024, cost savings (headcount reduction), dramatically improving the culture, dramatically increasing product velocity and general throughput, filling product gaps, a huge AI push, and finally releasing the
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$SQ bitcoin mining
We plan to offer both a standalone mining chip as well as a full mining system of our own design. 🫡👍🥰🤗🙏🎊😁
There aren't enough emojis to express my thoughts on the statement above. tbd is going all in and selling its new chip anywhere and everywhere it
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Growth Profit Growth and Operating Income Growth
vs the Stock Price $SQ
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$SQ
This solves a big issue we saw in August 2023. Square 24-hour outage. Now, all hardware can operate in offline mode.
Square Brings Offline
Payments to All Hardware
Devices, Around the Globe
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Thanks
@CathieDWood
for following me. 🙏 🫡
I hope you'll stick around for at least a few days as I'll be posting my $SQ deep dive latter today and would love comments from you and your team.
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This could be the most important chart to watch for the Q4 numbers for $SQ!
'Net Cash From Operations' for a software company is similar to Free Cash Flow.
The yellow bars are the Trailing Twelve Month numbers and the blue line is the current quarter annualized (x4).
From Q3,
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Yesterday was the highest weekly close for $SQ in the last 18 months.
I believe a fast move to the $95-105 range is next.
Can this happen before Q1 earnings? I believe so!
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What is Operating Leverage? What would happen if $SQ grew Gross Profit by 30%/Year and Operating Expenses by only 10%/Year 🤔
In 2029 we get to $20B in Operating Income. Add a 30x multiple and it's $600B. This is like getting 68% return for 6 years.
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It should be noted that $NU has been able to grow fast by entering new markets (countries). $SQ CashApp is on the cusp of international expansion, so expect the growth to steepen.
$SOFI vs $NU vs $SQ (banking divisions only) 🧵
Which one of these companies is growing the largest and fastest user base?
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$SQ at 6 year low.
Q3 2017 Gross Profit: $218,616
Q2 2023 Gross Profit: $1.87B
That's 8.5× the Gross revenue of 2017
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I don't think folks completely understand this-
$SQ
@jack
"We’ve been quiet lately because we’ve been focused."
This is what I've been calling the 75 yard throw. Folks think $SOFI is great for dozens of 2 yard throws (I do to) but missed that Cashpp has a super play in motion.
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I'm a huge fan of the $SQ community on FinX. I love you all! 🥰❤️
I will be extending my posts going forward to go deeper into other Fintech companies. This will be part of my $SQ research (the competition) but also to better help the community understand more companies.
$SOFI
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I've been waiting for this for about a year. $SQ Square can now do weighed goods.
Square for grocery stores is here.
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👇
$SQ One of the hotter weekly setups heading into April 🔥
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I'm probably one of the biggest $SQ bulls out there with well over half of my wealth in Block.
A lot of folks are super excited about the recent mining news but I have assigned zero value to mining even though I'm crazy bullish on $SQ. The reason is the "build it and they will
Block $SQ = underrated
1) Great base; recent nice entry
2) Room to $85, top of base
3)
#Bitcoin
play w/ Dorsey & Proto Team $CORZ creating a 3nm chip/miners, taking some of Bitmain's 60% market share of mining machines
4) Cash App- 57 million users
5) Small biz ramping w/ Trump?
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$SQ
According to TipRanks’ Website Traffic tool, total visits to grew by 25.8% year-over-year in Q4. The company’s website traffic jumped to 170.49 million from 135.57 million in the year-ago quarter.
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Folks may think this is a crazy scenario but if it plays out then $SQ investors will be very pleased.
Gross Profit Growth - 2024: 22% 2025-2030: 35%
Opex Growth - 2024:0% 2025-2030: 15%
I am using a 40x multiple for the valuation.
$SQ stock price in 2030 will be $2,107/share
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👇 Powell has balls of steel not cutting today.
Although, there is always the chance of a special meeting and emergency cut.
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This is my highest weekly impression ever.
Folks are keen for fintech content this earnings season, particularly $SQ, I suspect.
🫡🙏
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I bought $PYPL today at $57.48. Just 100 shares. A first-time PayPal owner.
I still much prefer $SQ.
Josh Brown, from
@CNBC
, is pushing PayPal $PYPL on the channel right now.
People shouldn't wait to get allocated to this one.
It's still DOWN over 81% from it's all time high almost 3 years ago!!!!!!!
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Anyone who doesn't buy $SQ at these prices in a fool. Please bookmark this post and repost every 6 months with your comments.
Negative or positive posts, but I'm not putting my neck out because I believe this is the perfect time to buy Block.
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Did I nail it or what!
$SQ
$SQ is likely to post good results next week.
IMO ...
Gross profit growth will grow faster than 19%.
Amrita will forecast an increase in profitability for 2024
Jack may even talk more about products, efficiency, and general cultural improvements.
I just don't see how they
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The setup for the 75-yard throw has been time-consuming, but it's in the air.
In the meantime, thanks
@jack
& team for completing many 2-yard throws. These are super important!
Pink card, Zine, overdraft, Square Seller Product releases.
2024 = huge crazy product releases $SQ
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If anyone is wondering, yes I'm waiting for $SQ results before I start putting out a bunch of Fintech deep posts.
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I've done almost 16K posts since I joined TwitterX. Of my original content (excluding reposting others' content), I suspect over 95% of my posts have been about $SQ.
I therefore assume that almost everyone following me is interested in $SQ.
My actual goal is to have the purest
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What $SQ has been building is even cooler than the platform they're building it on.
TBD is almost finished building a very cool set of products.
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ABSOLUTELY HUGE NEWS IMO. 👇 to find out why!
I often talk about $SQ products that I'd like to see and I have said multiple times that Block is likely working on as many products that I'm not aware of as the ones that I am (the $SQ team is much smarter than me). Selling $BTC to
square sellers: auto-convert a percent of your daily sales to bitcoin:
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👇
Absolutely everyone is sleeping on $SQ
Well, there are a few of us that get it!
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"Cash Shopping is a new team with a focus on building core e-commerce shopping functionality (navigation, search, filtering, offer feeds, storefronts, product pages, etc.) that helps users discover new offers from merchants and buy the products they want on Cash App." $SQ
This
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$SQ is trading a a significant discount to a combined $SOFI $TOST $AFRM $BILL (the 4).
$SQ spends 50% more on Product Development than the 4. $SQ has a lower Gross Profit Growth than the 4 but is much more profitable then the 4.
$SQ is at an absolute all time low valuation. Priced at 3.4x Gross Profit. Gross Profit Growth is at pandemic lows. At pandemic lows the valuation was 10.7x.
Operating Cashflow & EBITDA has bottomed & is now trending up. These need to be well above $400M/Quarter going forward.
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$SQ Square has a comprehensive backend with microservices, APIs, and SDKs for 3rd party developers to build apps. The Sell Anything Anywhere is released in its first interation, so the backend is looking great (I'm not sure about booking a table at a restaurant, so that may be a
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To answer the question of why did $SQ buy
@tidal
?
They bought it for the Artists, $SQ is building an artist platform. Remember Cash App was a money burner for years with just P2P until it monetized (their were many haters then laughing at Cash App). Tidal isn't trying to
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$SQ Cash App introduced Savings Yield early/mid Q1, but only if you Direct Deposit your paycheck (Inflows).
As I said last month,
@jack
has the luxury of picking low hanging fruit while we wait the last few months until the cool products launch.
$SQ Cash App inflows were $71 billion, up 17% YoY and 12% QoQ
Damn
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I added another 100 shares of $SQ today. Q1 earnings will be great, IMO.
I'm buying shares, not calls, because I only buy calls on big drawdowns.
FYI: I didn't pull the trigger on buying $TSLA leaps today. I want to see some signs that the drop has ended first. Maybe early
I just bought 100 shares of $SQ.
Yes, it's super small, but I will try and add another 100 later today.
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What is FUD? 🤔 Hindenburg was looking for prey that fit their FED disruption narrative. According to the report instant deposit from Cash App was going to be crushed 🤔
See the graphic below of what actually happened (⬆️ 15% YoY). $SQ
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The next $20 on $SQ is almost 100% likely to the upside.
The risk/reward here is bonkers!
Go long today and hold at lease through Q2 earnings but ideally through Q1 2025 earnings.
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The war has officially started! $SQ is the last man joining the fight.
Wait until all the new Cash App products emerge and the new rewards program. Will rewards be unified across Square, Afterpay, and Cash App 🤔
$SQ is now offering 4.5% interest on savings for those using direct deposit. For those without direct deposit, earn 1.5%.
Cash App is beginning to become a real banking option with this feature!! Slightly closing the gap with $SOFI. No interest savings was certainly a pitfall
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My portfolio allocation. For well over 18 months my portfolio was 50% $TSLA
Since May this has changed dramatically 😮🫣
$SQ
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Great consolidation week for $SQ so far.
The $70 mark is certainly a barrier, but once cracked 🚀
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Can
@Jack
power $SQ to $1T 🤔
Block has expertise in software, hardware, decentralized, open source, chip design, banking, payments, music.
• Building an SMB resource planning business (similar to ERP)
• Building a selling platform for businesses, same as $SHOP
• Build a
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$SQ
▪︎ $BTC on balance sheet
▪︎ $BTC Exchange
▪︎ $BTC Cold storage wallet
▪︎ $BTC Mining ASIC
🤔🫡
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Credit losses have never concerned me regarding $SOFI.
My concerns:
⭐️Galileo is overhyped
⭐️ $SOFI lacks innovation (its business model is low hanging fruit).
⭐️Its balance sheet is stretched, meaning loan growth flatterns
What I'm really talking about above is growth
$SoFi lends to very high quality borrowers, which should keep them from large losses even in times of financial trouble. Weighted average FICO score on their unsecured personal loans has mostly hovered between 745-750 since they came public. These are high-earning borrowers. Per
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Why is the new Cash App 100% guaranteed to succeed 🤔
⭐️ An easy win is having the Afterpay functionality on Cash App and then shutting down the Afterpay US App. There are a few million users of Afterpay who don't use Cash App, and soon they will. These Afterpay users new to
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If you haven't read the $SQ deep dive yet then 👇post.
Based on the $SQ pitch below, let's try and value this opportunity 🤔
By the end of 2024 Operating Costs should be 6% lower than Q3 2023, However for the sake of this forecast I assume the 6% cut happened instantly at the
The $SQ pitch.
Key points
▪︎ A dramatic change in mission and management style including passion and focus
▪︎ The idea of 0 to 1 and being a market leader
▪︎ Daily engagement of consumer apps changes the business model
▪︎ A single unified platform
▪︎ Urgency around
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Is $SQ telling us that September Cash App Pay Volumes are 10x that of the January Numbers?
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Is this the week that resistance is broken on $80 for $SQ.
I think so. This could be a melt up week.
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I'm hoping to buy around $25K worth of $SQ on the open, maybe a little more.
The last time I bought was when $SQ was under $40, and I have had a maximum limit since May of under $65. However, there has been much 'good news' recently from Block & from the FED that made me
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I'm super bullish on $SQ Cash App 💰as a global banking disrupter.
However, let's talk about Square Seller. 🏷 Square Seller is a global business bank. It's continuously adding banking products and increasing leading.
But what about 'Ecosystem of Ecosystems' 🤔 Clearly, Square
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I said last month that $SQ will never need to raise capital again. Now,
@jack
has announced a $1B buyback. Let's check the most recent cast situation at Block.
Q3 2023 Net Cash is now at a record high
$SQ won't need to raise capital ever again.
It has net cash and it's FCF positive. Much more important it is finally about to focus on operating leverage. Let's see if there is progress in 2023 Q3.
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$SQ is likely to post good results next week.
IMO ...
Gross profit growth will grow faster than 19%.
Amrita will forecast an increase in profitability for 2024
Jack may even talk more about products, efficiency, and general cultural improvements.
I just don't see how they
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At $61.90, I let you all know that the next $20 on $SQ was 100% going to be to the upside.
Yes, I said 100% !! OK, I said almost 😁
The next $20 on $SQ is almost 100% likely to the upside.
The risk/reward here is bonkers!
Go long today and hold at lease through Q2 earnings but ideally through Q1 2025 earnings.
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I'm a $SOFI watcher, not hater, and it is too cheap at these levels, but so is $PYPL $SQ $AFRM $HOOD.
A couple of $SOFI points:
▪︎ It was mispriced at $25, as were the other fintechs at their highs.
▪︎ It historically used its balance sheet to grow aggressively and can no
Remember that $SOFI is a company, not just a stock. This is how that company has performed relative to its stock price in the past 3 years.
All the fundamentals were sequentially down from Q4, but that is to be expected because SoFi did everything they could to be absolutely
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Everyone is sleeping on this. When will they wake up ... or has it already started 🤔
Let's look at $SQ. Valuation and profits asumme a 10% cost cut day 1 and gross profit growing at 20% and costs at 10%.
Fintech is decimated beyond what was called for after the bubble and eventually, people will realize and come back to it
Just ask simple question, is use of Fintech companies increasing or decreasing in your life and who are these companies that are FCF +ve now
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$SQ mat be up 90%+ from the lows 6 weeks ago, but we're well still in earth's atmosphere.
Just wait until we break orbit! 🚀 🚀
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I believe it was my post from early today that enabled the big push in $SQ today 😁
$SQ consolidating over $80 for 3 days and now 3 weeks since it first crossed $80.
The best chart in years for $SQ and check out the fundamentals in my deep dive below👇
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Are we close to a cash commerce go-live? 🤔
Thanks for the update, Toby, and I appreciate your hard work over the last year!!
Note: Cash Commerce isn't a single thing, so expect various products to roll out over time. $SQ has said BNPL inside Cash App is the first cab off the
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Hurry up folks, these pink cards go fast.
The Pink Card is back.
Order our restocked Pink Card and unlock the option to turn your Cash App Keyboard from green to pink.
Order the Pink Card in the app before it’s too late.
Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank.
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$SQ 😯 wow, really 👀
Cash App Pay also continued to grow, with volume up more than 40% on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
40% growth from December to March!
🥰🤗😁
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Cash App Pay did $1B in comparison. Once Cash Commerce launches, Cash App Pay will catch up to Shop Pay fairly quickly. $SQ
Cash App Pay was up 7x YOY in Q2.
Shopify $SHOP earnings call: "In Q2, Shopify Payments' penetration was 61%; and Shop Pay facilitated $16 billion in GMV, up 45% from last year."
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$TSLA
NOW
▪︎ Elon stops selling
▪︎ Elon stops political tweets
▪︎ EV Demand ⏫️
▪︎ Megapack ramping
SOON
▪︎ Prices ⏫️
▪︎ Investor Day
FURTHER OUT
▪︎ 4680 ramp
▪︎ Megapack $ meaningful
▪︎ cyber ramping
2024
▪︎ Semi vol prod
▪︎ Cyber vol prod
▪︎ FSD
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I want to simplify my thesis on $SQ.
Why did $MSFT make a comeback? 🤔 It had all the pieces it needed in 2013 and then just executed. Pieces included the types of businesses it had (cloud, software) and the innovative culture and existing talent.
Block is in the exact same
$SQ has huge network effects, bigger than anyone!
▪︎ P2P (Cash, Stocks, $BTC, gift cards)
▪︎ Cash App families (teens)
▪︎ Cash App Pay
▪︎ Cross-platform Cash App > Square
▪︎ Afterpay > Cash App
Is Square B2B incoming?
Cash App > Square is a great new addition and
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Today's dip is a reaction to goodness knows what, the next push up for $SQ should see a breach of $70.
But it's irrelevant. We are weeks away from earnings. That's the next catalyst.
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$SQ first ever global product launch is incoming.
6 Continents! 🫡🤗
Bitkey
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Holly 💩
These are aggressive words from Jack.
Super bullish for $SQ
Must read! 👇
Full text from Jack Dorsey to Block employees via Insider:
I want us to build a culture of excellence.
Excellence in service to our customers, excellence in our craft, excellence in our respective disciplines, and excellence to each other.
We want to help everyone achieve
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Q1 annualized PE for $SQ using a 20% tax rate over operating income is 28x.
Operating Income Margin of 17% (half that of $Fi and 1/4 of $MSFT) means that operating leverage potential huge.
⭐️ AI reducing expenses +12K headcount cap.
⭐️ 75-yard throws coming to an end
⭐️ New
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$SQ growth for Q4 40% ✋🛑
No, inflated by Afterpay acquisition. It was only 21%
However excluding Afterpay, Jan + Feb has accelerated to 25%🤗
Also remember that this will like accelerate further as Cash App grows past 50% weighting. Square mid market is also growing faster.
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$SQ A small partnership. Glad to see management negotiating these.
Announcing our new
@Square
integration
Zaprite users can now connect their Square merchant accounts and activate additional payment methods on their Checkouts …
✅ Credit Card
✅ ACH
✅ Cash App Pay
✅ Google Pay
✅ Apple Pay
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I called for a trough in gross profit growth in Q1 and then accelerating growth. Let me re-post that tweet. $SQ
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I said this last week. $SQ will add another $1B to its buyback program. The stock is ridiculously cheap, and they may be able to generate $2B+/year soon in Free Cash Flow.
$SQ Block $1.5b senior note offering
“Block intends to use the net proceeds from this offering for general corporate purposes, which may include the repayment of debt under its existing notes, potential acquisitions and strategic transactions, capital expenditures, investments
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At peak AI valuation 🤔 How about buying $5B of $SQ stock!
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I'm not sure folks realize the significance of this 👇
"Over time, we expect to grow upmarket
with families and can do so by offering
an increasingly robust set of oversight
controls to promote safety. In the
first quarter, we redesigned the
interface for Families so
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If you haven't read the $SQ deep dive yet, then 👇post.
Can $SQ reaccelerate growth 🤔
Let's go through the catalysts:
▪︎ Connecting the ecosystems. The penny dropped in 2021, and this work is almost ready for release. The new Cashapp OS is part of this.
▪︎ Square Seller,
The $SQ pitch.
Key points
▪︎ A dramatic change in mission and management style including passion and focus
▪︎ The idea of 0 to 1 and being a market leader
▪︎ Daily engagement of consumer apps changes the business model
▪︎ A single unified platform
▪︎ Urgency around
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$SQ Excluding bitcoin revenue and our BNPL platform, Cash App revenue was $892 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, up 51% year over year.
This is still a difficult comp because 2021 Q4 had Govt stimulus $.
Cash App may be able to grow 60% in 2023
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In true
@jack
form, we get action over talk.
And I'm not F***ing kidding. I had to rewind the Q1 call a few times to confirm Jack mumbling 'Kiosk'.
So a mumble to product launch in 3 months, not too shabby. $SQ
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Why $SQ 🚀
1. It's 'musical chairs' like. Market sells thinking they can quickly get a chair when the music stops. Causes a ridiculous valuation, then panic buying.
2. The focus on profitability on Q3 earnings (layoffs)
3. 10-Year bond⏬️
4. Stock buybacks
5. Decent 3Q results
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$PYPL Adjusted Operating Income
PayPal has an extremely profitable business.
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Cash App Global Expansion 🤔
1️⃣
@jack
said 'Cash App' won't be expanding overseas for the time being.
2️⃣ Nick Molnar said the Afterpay US App will be shut down by the end of 2024.
3️⃣ Nick Molnar recently hinted that Afterpay (ex US) would have a lot of new features. No timeline
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What is going on? Are these fellas FEDS. It certainly looks Soros organized to me. Please leave comments below if you know WTF is going on here!!
I thought it was illegal to have people in the back of a truck like that.
Yet when the police escorted “Patriot Front” in Nashville, they allowed the Feds to do it.
Hmm … I wonder why?
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$SQ is moving towards a more unified technology stack and culture. I'm no expert on how this should be done and who runs what parts, as long as technical debt and duplication are eliminated.
In addition, it's critical, IMO, that the consumer side of Block is brought together. A
The $SQ pitch.
Key points
▪︎ A dramatic change in mission and management style including passion and focus
▪︎ The idea of 0 to 1 and being a market leader
▪︎ Daily engagement of consumer apps changes the business model
▪︎ A single unified platform
▪︎ Urgency around
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$SQ have outperformed $PYPL in the last month, so is it time to buy $PYPL🤔
Not so fast!
Yes, $SQ (purple) is now above $PYPL but that has happened historically to. However because $SQ grows faster than $PYPL the Gross Profit gap closes every quarter.
$SQ is a better buy!
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$SQ enterprise sales. Square signs a big deal in food.
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It is cheap, but $SQ is actually cheaper.
Forget TTM numbers and compare the 2 using the forward numbers. Similar PE but much high growth at $SQ.
$PYPL is actually trading at 14X PE
and company is expected to grow EPS DOUBLE-DIGIT for the next 3 years (wasn't the company dead?)
Are you buying $PYPL?
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ARK is buying $SQ 🫡
Many folks scratching their heads, trimming $HOOD $COIN then buying $SQ the next day.
Cathie gets it!
ARK trimmed $BTC yesterday and bought a little more $SQ.
I personally believe $SQ will outperform $BTC through year end, at which time ARK may reverse this trade.
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Super busy in Bangkok, but things are starting to settle down, and today I will start working on my $SQ Pitch update.
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@10BaggerDan
My picks:
📺 $FUBO
💳 $SQ
🛒 $SHOP
🚘 $TSLA
🎮 $U
💽 $PLTR
📢 $MGNI
Note: no position in $FUBO $U
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One bad day on the market, and folks are gloomy. This happens to all stocks from time to time.
The results were very good, IMHO. I personally believe that $SQ will have an annualized Adjusted Operating Income of $2B soon and will maintain growth.
So what is Adjusted Operating
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