Tony Wilson
@tonywilsonIES
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Director, Institute for Employment Studies @EmploymtStudies Get involved in our Commission on the Future of Employment Support at:
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Lots of talk this week about problems with employment support, so thought I'd share a piece I've just written for
@IPPR
Progressive Review on what a better system would look like:
- Accessible
- Empowering
- Responsive
- Sustainable
Bit of history too!
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So
@TorstenBell
has a great thread on madness of benefit cuts.
I'll just add one graph
We have pretty much the least generous system in the *world* - is nonsense to suggest ppl are 'incentivised' to stay at home.
Need to do far more to help ppl into work, not cut benefits further
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No wonder govt has suppressed this sanctions evaluation for so long ; hard to think how it could be any worse.
Sanction makes you more likely to leave benefit but no more likely to get a job - and if you do find work you earn less.
But worst of all...
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Oh wow I've just realised that the sanctions measures are actually forecast to COST more than they will save. Will cost about £10m a year.
Given the stuff from Ministers last week about 'hardworking taxpayers' being 'taken for a ride' I feel like we deserve an explanation...
For those worried (or excited) about the sanctions and workfare stuff, confirmation that it was all smoke and mirrors.
- Sanctions changes have virtually no ££ savings.
- Mandatory work placements is I reckon at most 15k places per year, maybe 10% of those leaving Restart.
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Ok just seen the front pages about 'sicknote culture'. These arguments are just full of holes.
Yes we should care about work and health, but top priority should be helping people *out of work already* not those who take time off sick.
First on Fit Notes, this is data since 2019:
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Jobs data not great today.
Super-low unemployment disguises near-record vacancies and shrinking workforce (again). Driven by older people, long-term sick.
Private sector pay near 7%, public sector pay anaemic...
Big risks on growth and inflation - need to do more, quickly🧵
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My heart sinks when I hear Ministers/ Prime Minister talk about campaigns to "get people off welfare and into work".
I've two problems with it.
First is language, which Catherine put much better than I could in the excellent
@CovidRealities
project:
1/
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Just listening to James Brokenshire on on
@BBCr4today
. So £1.5bn for towns is welcome. But £6bn was available thru European Social Fund for employment, skills and inclusion. Where's the rest? Where's Shared Prosperity Fund?
#r4today
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Great piece from
@jburnmurdoch
today.
Growth in worklessness being driven by multiple health conditions - chronic pain, mental health, and likely long Covid.
Strongly agree that part of answer in short-term shd be to expand access to Restart Scheme 1/3
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Today's jobs figures are really poor (again).
Thread below, but TL;DR:
- Despite record vacancies, labour force is shrinking - Despite 4% pay growth, high inflation means real pay falling too.
- Falling pay, high worklessness, labour shortages will make living standards worse.
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Today's jobs stats are pretty grim.
Largest fall in real pay on record, 'missing million' in labour market, highest worklessness due to ill health in two decades.
Crisis we prepared for isn't the one we've got - need to reinvest the £bns set aside for mass unemployment ASAP...🧵
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Oh dear. V poor jobs data again today - huge rise in 'economic inactivity' and employment falling, even as unemployment plumbs new depths; while real pay is down for 9th month in row as inflation spirals.
Need to do far more to help ppl into work and help firms fill jobs.
🧵
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Big news! We've launch a new Commission on Future of Employment Support and want to hear from you.
TL;DR:
- UK among weakest jobs recoveries in world
- Bad for growth and living standards
- We were already very unequal
- Not enough people get the right help
- We can do better...
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Lots of people (incl us) are worried about the very large rises in worklessness over last two years, esp. due to ill health.
So here's a scary graph showing this in benefits data.
There's now one MILLION more people out of work, on benefits and assessed as too ill to work
🧵
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I really despair at this continued use of PAYE figures as 'showing record employment' - e.g. Prime Minister leaning heavily on it at PMQs today.
We do not have 'record employment'. The official measure is below.
It's 600k lower than pre-pandemic, and the recovery is stalling.
1/
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Here's a thread on the evidence on benefit sanctions, given reports that
#Budget2023
will introduce an (even) "tougher" regime.
It is an appallingly bad idea.
First up is this excellent, thorough and sobering review by
@Serena_Pattaro
et al.
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Just to be clear, virtually no-one on Universal Credit has been claiming for three months or less.
I've shown below how many.
The idea that getting new claimants to search harder will make any difference at all - let alone get millions into work - is complete nonsense. 1/
@djmgaffneyw4
@tonywilsonIES
@CovidRealities
Terrible policy making…
Our failing social security system already rushes people into poorly fitting jobs, burning human capital & productivity
This makes a bad design worse
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I think our sanctions system has gone very badly wrong.
As
@EleanorCarter
also put it, it's also one of the most punitive regimes in the world with the severity of the penalties causing significant harm to people and families affected.
One in twelve claimant unemployed are under sanction - the highest ever rate
"Sanctions have become an end in themselves, rather than what happens when things go wrong" argues IES Director
@tonywilsonIES
at
@CommonsWorkPen
this morning.
Full video here:
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Truly awful jobs data today.
Employment, economic inactivity as bad as depths of pandemic.
The data is VERY volatile so don't read too much into short-term changes, but trend is clearly poor.
And I think it shows it's the labour market holding back growth - not other way round...
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IF the Employment Bill has been dropped, then below is what the govt is dropping.
Statutory basis for single enforcement body; protection for insecure workers, pregnancy, unpaid caring; 'flex by default' etc.
You don't 'level up' by leaving this out... really poor
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With the "jobless to lose benefits" stuff being reannounced today, just a reminder that the govt's own analysis found that sanctions appeared to lead to fewer people getting jobs...
No wonder govt has suppressed this sanctions evaluation for so long ; hard to think how it could be any worse.
Sanction makes you more likely to leave benefit but no more likely to get a job - and if you do find work you earn less.
But worst of all...
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Surprisingly poor jobs data today.
Recent employment recovery appears to have stalled, with worklessness rising again; while real pay continues to fall as living costs rise.
What a way to enter a slowdown...
New PM needs to act quick on incomes and participation - thread below.
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Today's jobs stats: Don't be fooled by falling unemployment! It's masking continued falls in labour force participation, with older people leading the exodus. Very worrying, again.
550k rise in 'inactivity' for over-50s in last two years, largest rise in at least three decades 1/
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I just despair at this. There's no 'help in the round' for people out of work, there's hardly any help at all.
They don't benefit from abolition of top rate tax nor cuts to NICs and Income Tax.
Funding tax cuts thru benefit cuts, when inflation is 10%, is just madness.
Kwasi Kwarteng comments on the suggestion by his junior Treasury Secretary Chris Philp that the UK may not hike benefits in line with the rising inflation.
"We are talking about helping people in the round. It's premature of me to come to a decision about that" Kwarteng says
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Worrying jobs data again today.
Another rise in those out of work due to long-term ill health (blue below), above 2.5m for first time ever.
But bad news too on employment, pay, older people and disabled people.
Thursday Budget needs to do more, especially on employment support
🧵
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... having known since 2018 that or approach was badly failing, rather than concluding we should sanction FEWER people govt has ended up sanctioning MORE.
Post-pandemic, 1 in 12 people are under sanction. Is impossible to justify this now.
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Today's jobs figures are pretty poor again.
Even clearer now that single biggest challenge is how we help older people back into work. Below shows change in 'economic inactivity' since pandemic.
Incredibly, *80%* of growth is over 50s - up by 560k. Flat/ falling for all others 1/
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Still talking about workfare today!
So here's thread on last time we tried it:
- Very small impacts on benefit receipt
- More people ended up on ill health benefits
- No impact at all on employment
- No chance it would have covered its costs
Bad for people, and taxpayers too..
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Unsurprisingly, in UK people don't spend much time off at all. Far more likely to work when poorly. Cos SSP doesn't pay enough (or at all for first few days), cos worried about consequences, or don't want to let colleagues down.
Presenteeism, not absenteeism, is our disease.
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Ministerial responsibilities
@DWPgovuk
now published... and for first time in 25 years(?) we've separate Ministers for Employment and Social Security!
Good news in my view - both priorities, and two great appts in
@Alison_McGovern
and
@stephenctimms
🧵
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Been looking at the new poverty data today.
Below is the proportion of those in poverty who live in families with three or more kids.
Now a quarter of all non-pensioner poverty. Was 15% a decade ago.
Remind me when the benefit cap came in...
Awful policy with clear consequences.
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Good update from
@ONS
on older people leaving labour market. For ppl in 50s:
- Large majority aren't retired and would come back
- Most don't have enough savings
- V few on benefits
- Needs to be right job with right support
So we need to do a LOT more/ differently to help
Recent labour market data shows that adults aged over 50 years continue to drive the increase in economic inactivity.
Today we've published an update looking at the reasons behind adults aged 50 to 65 years leaving the workplace
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Finally this from
@jburnmurdoch
should be a wake-up to anyone who thinks what we're seeing in the UK is in any way inevitable or a global problem.
It's not.
We're now pretty much unique in the developed world in seeing worklessness rising.
Bad for people, economy, communities.
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Truly dismal last five years in the labour market.
First Parliament since 1979 where employment has fallen, and the biggest rise in economic inactivity since these records began in 1971...
Today's figures even worse than usual too.
More later...
Comment from IES Director
@tonywilsonIES
on the just-announced Labour Market Statistics from
@ONS
. Our detailed briefing note will be available later today, sign up here to receive via email:
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Anyway. Pretty conclusive evidence today that the UK system is bad for those sanctioned, bad for economy and bad for society. It needs fundamental reform.
And a bit more in this thread on the wider international evidence:
Here's a thread on the evidence on benefit sanctions, given reports that
#Budget2023
will introduce an (even) "tougher" regime.
It is an appallingly bad idea.
First up is this excellent, thorough and sobering review by
@Serena_Pattaro
et al.
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Sorry, I'm going to keep banging on about this until it's changed...
If you are on a zero hours contract you have the same entitlement to SSP as everyone else. Avg pay for people on ZHCs is above £118/ wk.
Don't just claim UC - ask your employer for SSP.
New govt advice for businesses and employees on covid-19 is welcome. But to clarify, if you're on a zero hours contract you're entitled to SSP as long as your usual earnings are above £118/wk. If in doubt, ask your employer. Don't just claim UC.
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Great news that govt will double number of JCP employment advisers.
This will be a big logistical challenge given closures in recent years, so need also to mobilise ASAP existing and furloughed recruitment/ employment services, charities, local gov etc...
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Today's jobs data:
- Things a bit worse than we thought
- 700k more out of work than pre-pandemic
- Largely due to ill health...
- But also record levels of young people not in labour force or education
- Not due to lack of vacancies, altho they're falling
A lot we need to do
🧵
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(The report weakly suggests that the 'deterrent' effect may make up for this. I think that's nonsense, but just to reiterate govt has had this research for FIVE YEARS. So we shouldn't have to speculate, it's had years to test that theory if it had really wanted to.)
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Good to hear
@DWP
and
@MelJStride
will lead a review on how to help more people into work.
Top 3 things for me:
- Reach people better - thru the services they use and trust
- Offer to help, without conditions or threats
- And help with things like health, childcare, transport, ££
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Today's jobs stats: ignore headlines about record employment and low unemployment.
Sadly the jobs recovery has stalled, with employment stuck and economic inactivity ticking up.
Being driven by older people and young people outside education.
We need to address this. Thread... 1/
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So I often hear that what's happening in the UK economy is happening everywhere else too.
But on the labour market, it really isn't.
Take a look at graph below, showing change in employment rates across major economies since 2019. See if you can guess which one is the UK...
🧵
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Good to see this today on
@UKLabour
plans for employment support:
I'm a bit of a bore on this stuff but I think this is welcome and the right priorities.
Lots of things need to go right tho. Quick🧵on some of them: culture, capabilities, systems etc...
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I'm so sad to write that my friend and colleague
@StephenBevan
passed away yesterday.
Steve was amazing and a huge influence on me and many of us. I miss him deeply.
Have written more here, but words can't really do justice:
1/3
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Ok but even if it's flat since 2019, maybe 900k a month (1 in 30 employees) is a 'sicknote culture'?
Well here's how the UK compares with other OECD countries on days lost to sickness.
Yes it shows that the UK is an outlier. But no, that's not because we spend more time off sick.
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Way to Work - why 'half a million get jobs in under six months' is either woefully poor, meaningless or plain wrong... a story in six charts!
Lessons include: flows are huge, especially now; and we need more transparent data/ better targets
🧵
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Calls for public sector regional pay by
@trussliz
has so many problems - practical, political, economic, social. But a really big one is this - the 'savings' seem to be based on time when public sector pay was £30/ wk higher than private sector; whereas now it's £20/ wk lower...
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My comment on the govt's new Back to Work Plan:
There's welcome new measures here, but it risks being outweighed by the nasty, divisive and unnecessary rhetoric about 'coasters' who 'take taxpayers for a ride'. Completely counterproductive.
1/
Comment from IES Director
@tonywilsonIES
on the government's just-announced Back to Work plan (), read the full IES comment IES here:
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Here's the monthly change in claimant unemployment since the claimant count began in 1971. If you had any doubt that we were living through labour market history...
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Great to see this. Echoes our calls too. Back when Future Jobs Fund was being wound up I never imagined a consensus spanning CBI, TUC, local govt, charities, academics etc to bring sthg similar back...
#Evidencebasedpolicymaking
.
Govt needs to get on and announce its plans now.
The UK will need to adapt to new ways of living with Covid-19. But this must not stop the country from implementing an ambitious economic recovery plan. We need Gov to make jobs, skill-building and opportunities for young people the top priority. To do this they should
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So DWP has published daily claims data, which is graphed below. Four take-aways:
1. Wow
2. It appears that the crisis is abating
3. DWP officials have done an incredible job keeping wheels on the road
4. Now need ASAP to start helping people find new jobs. Need a
#CobraforJobs
!
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Looking forward to
@leicesterliz
's speech in Barnsley later.
Three big things today - all welcome:
1. Unequivocal commitment to localising and devolving support.
2. There will be a White Paper!
3. Govt is going to start listening to experts again...
🧵
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Lots of discussion again this weekend/ today about sanctions; so here's a couple of threads.
First on the govt's own evaluation - tougher penalties just haven't worked. Awful for those affected, but no obvious economic benefit either.
Should be sanctioning less, not more.
No wonder govt has suppressed this sanctions evaluation for so long ; hard to think how it could be any worse.
Sanction makes you more likely to leave benefit but no more likely to get a job - and if you do find work you earn less.
But worst of all...
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Quick thread on today's jobs figures.
Slightly better but not great.
V worrying on ill health, disabled people and young ppl not in educn.
Any headlines of falling econ inactivity are due to fewer students (yellow line, left) - inactivity by age (right) tells different story:
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Very weak jobs data again today.
900,000 more people out of work than pre-covid, virtually all explained by people outside the labour force.
This isn't a 'sicknote culture' tho: it's people out of work not getting help they need to get back in.
🧵
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Is anyone any the wiser after Hunt's speech what the govt is actually proposing on benefits??
Cos it's already the case that you can't 'refuse' work (has been the case since 1911...) and more than half a million sanctions every year.
1/2
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So in the talk of school closures and working from home, spare a thought for the 1.2 million lone parents in work. That's 70% of all lone parents, up from 50% two decades ago. I may have missed it, but not heard a word on what will be done to help these families. 1/
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Spoiler: we don't have record employment...
Tune in to the
@BBCMoreOrLess
show on
@BBCRadio4
at 9am where IES Director
@tonywilsonIES
will be talking to
@TimHarford
about the government’s use of PAYE figures as showing ‘record employment’. Listen here:
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Four fifths of the growth in the number of people out of work and not looking for work has been among those aged 50 or older.
@ONS
has today published some new research exploring their reasons and motivations to return to work - here's a quick thread on a few key points:
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Record unemployment looms in the UK. Here's what the government must do | Tony Wilson
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New graph!
This is growth in vacancies and pay by industry.
- 'Professions' are leading way on pay growth and (sometimes) vacancies
- Hospitality is really tight (top right)
- Construction, manuf, public services now more subdued
- Arts etc seeing big falls in pay but high demand
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Feel sorry for anyone who turned on their TV at this point, hoping for a cheery start to the day
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Another month of jobs data, another record set for the number of people off work with long-term ill health.
2.55 million - up nearly 100k in the last quarter alone, and rising while literally every other reason for economic inactivity is falling.
Awful figures, so much to do🧵
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DWP's evaluation of its progression pilot found that >90% of sanctions were for not attending interview. Working people missing an appt and losing benefit. That in a nutshell is why sanctioning workers' UC doesn't lead to earning more. It's an admin regime not a behavioural one.
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Wow - today's job stats show easily highest EVER rate of people starting new jobs over summer.
7% of all of those in work, or 2.2 million people.
RH graph shows record entries to work (38% of those unemployed found a job) and record job moves (Great Resignation?)
And yet... 1/
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Full thread on today's jobs data, it's not easy reading...
As I said earlier, it's been a dismal Parliament for jobs. First fall in employment since 1979, biggest rise in economic inactivity on record.
But it's not the economy holding back employment - it's other way round...
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Tale of two crises in today's jobs stats. Ongoing easing of lockdown means big fall in numbers away from work, increase in hours and pay, vacancies rising.
But recession, uncertainty and restructuring sees huge fall in youth employment and 45% increase in redundancies. Graphs: 1/
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Very strong labour market stats today.
Employment up sharply in April, unemployment trending down, vacancies up.
The one black spot? Long-term unemployment - now rising at fastest since 2010, with over-50s AND young people at highest in five years.
Can't fill jobs? Look here 1/
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Good news that Sunak will give Kickstart employers three more months to fill their jobs.
But it'd be even better if he announced we'd guarantee a job offer for ALL of the 200k young people unemployed for more than six months.
We need to reform Kickstart, not just extend it.
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The (main) reason? Further rises in long-term ill health (blue line), now highest since 2001.
Lots of issues here - waiting lists, poorer mental health, long covid. But well over half a million want a job, and aren't getting support to find one.
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Today's jobs stats: I woke up expecting really strong data and a Christmas present/ rare good news for govt. But instead I feel the Grinch!
Unemployment is falling fast, but jobs growth is weak and the number out of work but not looking is ticking up again. A lot to do. Thread 1/
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Pretty dire jobs data today.
- Largest fall in employment since 2020
- Unemployment and 'inactivity' both up
- Rising youth worklessness
- Vacancies down 20% on a year ago
- But hey, pay's rising faster than inflation!
A LOT of work to do at Budget... 🧵
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Just seen this.
Wish govt had used this time/effort to help ppl who want a job but aren't looking for one, rather than testing ever tighter rules for the unemployed.
We don't have an unemployment problem- and talk of 'crackdowns' is entirely self-defeating
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So it's basically flat, save for the lockdowns (we don't have comparable data pre 2019).
But here's same graph showing those issued in total, for mental health and where reason isn't recorded.
Reailty is we DON'T KNOW why vast majority are issued, and mental health isn't rising.
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Great analysis here.
Shows large growth in long term ill health explains nearly all of rise in worklessness since 2020.
Alongside analysis from
@jburnmurdoch
last week, clear evidence stacking up on why we need far more help for ppl with health conditions who are out of/ in work
New working paper on long-term sickness and labour market outcomes with
@haskelecon
Amongst other things we explore the rise of in-work long-term sickness, changes during the pandemic, and implications for the future.
A thread 🧵 on the paper 1/13
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Ok so with Tory and Labour manifestos out, what do they say about help for those out of work?
Well they couldn't be more different:
- One focused almost entirely on social security
- The other almost entirely on employment support
The duality at the heart of DWP...🧐🤔
Quick 🧵
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Second concern today. DIsability employment gap unchanged at 30.2%. So while disability employment has grown, inequality in accessing work is unchanged. Govt abandoned its target to halve this gap and set a far easier one of just increasing employment. We must do better.
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For those worried (or excited) about the sanctions and workfare stuff, confirmation that it was all smoke and mirrors.
- Sanctions changes have virtually no ££ savings.
- Mandatory work placements is I reckon at most 15k places per year, maybe 10% of those leaving Restart.
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Today's jobs stats: worker shortages and record vacancies are driving tightest labour market in modern times.
This has been a jobs light recovery - we need action to get more people the help they need to work: older people, those with health conditions, parents, students.
Thread
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So... Chancellor will announce a new £3bn 'Restart' programme for long-term unemployed tmrw.
Not unexpected, but a LOT bigger than I was expecting - this is welcome news.
Devil will be in detail tho... quick comment below
(And blog from Friday here: )
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Wow so I think that this will be the graph of the morning. Redundancies have shot up (again): they've doubled in a quarter. Fastest growth since the series began in 1995.
Left shows level of redunds, right shows quarterly growth
1/2
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Using our latest online vacancy data, it's likely that there's now 6 (claimant) unemployed people per vacancy, compared with 1.5 pre crisis. This is the toughest jobs market in a generation. We need action on employment support now.
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After seven wonderful years at L&W (including four at Inclusion/ CESI), I'll be joining
@EmploymtStudies
in October. Delighted to have the opportunity to lead such a great organisation.
We're thrilled to announce the appointment of Tony Wilson (
@LWtonywilson
) as our new Director (CEO) from 1 October 2018. Full announcement:
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Interested in 'what works' in employment?
Three useful looking papers here which Prof Dan Finn has just received via FOI.
I'm looking forward to reading, but this is publicly funded work with clear public benefits -
@DWPgovuk
should have published them.
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First on 'economic inactivity' due to ill health.
Rose by fastest on record AGAIN - up 170k this quarter. Highest since at least 1992, at 2.49m. Blue line below.
Also edging up for students, family care, retirement.
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Quick thread on BBC story on welfare cuts today:
TL;DR:
- Govt shouldn't be trying to score £4bn savings yet on proposals that aren't worked thru and need legislation
- Office for Budget Responsibility should follow their own advice and be VERY sceptical
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Such rubbish news abt school closures.
Would urge anyone who can't work their full hours to ask your employer for furlough if you need it.
Guidance clear that childcare *is* eligible for furlough.
More importantly, employers need to step up too... (thread)
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Over 200 signatories - incl Asda, Heathrow Airport,BUPA, Ricoh,
@SirBobKerslake
,
@jrf_uk
,
@PrincesTrust
,
@YF_Foundation
,
@ImpetusPEF
,
@YEUK2012
,
@LearnWorkUK
,
@CsthatWork
,
@groundworkuk
, Mayors of Sheffield, Liverpool, North of Tyne...
Huge consensus - need a youth guarantee.
Guarantee that every unemployed person has the support they need to get back to work.
@tonywilsonIES
, Bob Kerslake, me & many others on what government needs to do to respond to the coming crisis:
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Here's a short thread on our Getting Back to Work report. It's clear that this recession will lead to a rise in unemployment steeper than any in living memory with UC claims at least double the 2008/9 peak. Need to act now to support the recovery 1/
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It's official. This is far and away the biggest increase in claims to benefit in at least forty years, and likely a lifetime. See below. This is a 412% increase month on month, >5 times higher than previous record (June 1994). First time we've had official data to chart this. 1/
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From today's
@thetimes
interview with Keir Starmer.
Great to see focus on employment services driving jobs and growth, not just policing the benefits system. And making this a proper jobs and careers service would be long overdue...
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Well I'm VERY pleased with how this has turned out. More so than my son, I think...
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Three good articles from
@ONS
this morning on over-50s, employment and inactivity. Quick 🧵
First is from longitudinal Labour Force Survey, flows to and from employment/ inactivity:
Will screengrab a few charts from the article rather than do my own... 1/
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Today's jobs figures, thread below!
TL;DR:
Good-ish news on pay and unemployment, but being driven by labour shortages post-Covid/ Brexit and risks even higher inflation.
So we need action to boost labour supply, growth and incomes - not just dampen demand thru interest rates 1/
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If you'd like to know how employers feel about 'welfare' rhetoric and forcing jobseekers to apply for unsuitable jobs, I would thoroughly recommend the work of
@joingold
, especially this open access article
@tonywilsonIES
Indeed. Employers can spot applications just to fulfill conditionality requirements:
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I'm delighted with the govt's plan announced today. Hugely welcome. Well done to everyone - Mins, civil servants, those outside govt - for their work to get to this point. We now need to encourage, support and cajole employers to take these funds up.
Here's a quick thread. 1/
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Second is scope.
Our ambition should be that EVERYONE who wants help to find work can get it, regardless of whether you're "on welfare" (or the right bit of welfare).
Especially when there's over a million jobs that want people.
We need a proper public employment service 2/
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Great to see
#kickstart
launched today.
Credit to govt for taking on board feedback on its design, with clear space for private sector, local govt, public bodies, charities to create great jobs. Wld urge people to do it.
Some thoughts below, incl reflecting on my time doing
#FJF
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I agree with
@PollardTom
Proposals here conflate access to social security and to employment support in a way that's counterproductive (and telling).
DWP basically saying the only way they can help more people w/ long-term health conditions is by being able to threaten sanctions
Here we go again
Spoiler alert: telling more ill & disabled people that they're 'fit for work', giving them even less adequate benefits & subjecting them to conditionality & sanctions will not lead to a significant proportion finding sustainable work 1/2
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