Tim Spector MD (Prof)
@timspector
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PI of the ZOE PREDICT studies & the ZOE Health Study @Join_ZOE Researcher/Author on microbiome, nutrition & genomics. All views my own.
London
Joined May 2010
Saw my mum aged 88 in a care home today via a Perspex screen that she hates and no longer interacts with me. We have both had Covid and a vaccine -so why do we still have to wait months to meet and touch? I feel for others in worse situations while death risk is the only metric!.
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Thanks for all your letters of support! We are not giving up! One reason we at ZOE have been shut down is seen in this graph - where the true infections are five times more than the official dashboard and going up fast- thanks 4 logging!
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Congratulations U.K! Today the ZOE app recorded the lowest level of new cases since the pandemic began last March when we started our survey. Thanks to social measures AND vaccines. THANKS EVERYONE FOR YOUR SUPPORT 😁
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I was honoured to visit Windsor to receive my OBE for services to the COVID-19 response today. I want to thank anyone who has played a role in this achievement, the whole team @Join_ZOE, @KingsCollegeLon and the 4.5 million users who have joined us in the fight against COVID 🙏
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While the U.K. official figures and @BBCNews say cases in U.K. have plateaued- the reality is that they have been increasing for the last two weeks based on the Zoe data . Now at 176000 cases per day - thanks for logging !
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Most cold symptoms are now Omicron infections in the U.K. as record levels continue and we approach 300 000 cases per day with no sign of a slowdown- no sign of any public health messaging but thanks for logging with Zoe !
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An emotional moment as I hugged my 88 year old mum for the first time in 9 months in her care home. Touch really is a vital sense. I hope they relax rules faster to allow more reunions when residents and staff are vaccinated and at ultra low risk
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W Covid cases in London now decreasing + UK slowing - it is great to see no real change in Covid deaths over last month. The health crisis is in danger of being driven by staff problems due to over- cautious isolation rules. Lets reduce this to 5 days! .
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UK cases reach 309,000 cases per day affecting currently over 1 in 20 people as this fifth wave of omicron BA5 shows no signs of slowing and hospitals filling up steadily. Still no signs of advice for the public - as U.K. supposedly the first to beat Covid @Join_ZOE
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Plenty of scary models around that I’m treating with a pinch of salt-, ALL the data shows vaccines are working and I don’t buy into an Indian Third wave scenario that some of the media seem to be whipping up.
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As U.K. new cases reported on the Zoe app today go above 300000 daily and still rising - there is still no government warnings that the top five symptoms of COVID19 are still like a cold - even in the elderly and more vulnerable
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New COVID19 cases in U.K. hit record high! 221,000 cases per day and still rising - Scotland the worst hit but affects every region. Perfect timing (not) as the govt stops funding the Zoe Covid study and hospitalisations rise again - thanks for logging!
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Sorry - No bad news again today - as we are at 1000 new symptomatic cases per day - mostly in the younger population and 33M people vaccinated. To put in context around 1000 people get diagnosed with cancer each day in the UK. Thanks for logging and supporting us and ZOE app!.
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Important to keep context. This is the only disease we get daily updates on. We forget in UK 1000 people daily diagnosed w cancer or 1500 dying. This is not causing death or significant problems on the NHS- so IMO we need to get used to it as vaccines make it a mild disease.
@timspector Just feel like crying, when is this going to end?.
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A Zoë contributor has told of a super-spreader event in Somerset at a 60 th birthday where All guests were vaccinated and some with boosters and had a lateral flow test 24 hours beforehand that was negative. 14/18 developed PCR positive for omicron- but symptoms all mild luckily.
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Despite scares of the latest variant of concern running wild - our data show no increases for the last few days and risks at an individual level still very low - all thanks to vaccination which is reducing infections and severity as with all variants so far. Thanks for logging!
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Further evidence today from our Zoe CSS survey that we have passed the peak in second wave new cases in the U.K. there will be a four week lag before this is seen in a decline in deaths and 1-2 weeks in hospitalisation. R value close to one in most areas now
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SHocking graph from t’he Times on Why youngsters cant afford houses Now At 8 Times average salaries
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Now that COVID is endemic and most susceptible people are protected - it makes no sense to keep sending masses of kids home and mess up their education when one case occurs and their risk is tiny @drraghibali
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In the U.K. we should be looking at Israel which is ahead of us in vaccination - not Europe . They also had a two week plateau in cases but then declined. So relax!
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Our elderly are still being held prisoner despite being at no risk to themsleves or others - every day it continues is a disgrace. I get upset hearing colleagues who defend it. If they had a relative in a care home they would think differently. Lets end it now Mr @MattHancock.
Who would have predicted this? From a country that rejects ID cards. Residents of care homes are being treated worse than prisoners
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Worried about the Indian variant? While our latest ZOE data still shows hotspots in Bolton Bedford, Oldham and Glasgow where the variant exists- the UK picture is not showing any signs of an increase with cases staying at around 2000 symptomatic cases per day which is v.low. Thx
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UK new case rates from ZOE app now at a quarter of the peak on Jan 1st and same as in September. Although hospital admissions lag by 1-2 weeks, they are declining in all regions - Do we really need to keep English schools closed till 8th March and prolong long term damage?
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As we get close to 300,000 cases a day across the U.K. and also rises in the elderly - this current wave shows no sign of abating as most of the population seem unaware of the risks and frequent reinfections- thanks for logging !
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NHS official Main symptoms of coronavirus (COVID-19) have finally changed after 2 years of lobbying and Zoe app user input - hurrah ! Pity they have the order wrong - but it’s a start and could help reduce infections 🙄 thanks ZOE loggers!
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As Zoe daily cases hit 330,000 - we see cases rising in all areas in all ages to record levels and super infectious omicron BA.2 now over 93 percent of U.K. cases. Hitting schools and hospitals again and still no public health messaging!
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Latest victim of COVID-19 is classic of new infections - my fully vaccinated son was working in a London hospital maternity wing where vaccines rates are low and developed headache runny nose sneezing and sore throat .A total lack of Official symptoms but LFT and PCR positive.
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How hard would it be for NHS to add cold-like symptoms of Covid to this list to help reduce the spread?? Still over 50 percent of current cases lack the 3, traditional symptoms
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I'm disappointed to share that the ZOE COVID Study hasn't had its funding renewed by UKHSA. But we're carrying on and looking forward to the next steps, looking at a whole host of health conditions as well as COVID. Watch my latest update for more info:
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Even after the PCR fraud stories and lobbying I was shocked by the amount of skimming on NHS contracts for PPE -. While people died or volunteered - who gets £32M just to introduce a Chinese company? Is U.K. no better than Russia?? Great stuff from @PrivateEyeNews
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Important message that 83% of current cases of Omicron present with a runny nose - and less than 1 in 3 ever have a fever and one in 5 smell or taste problems - often a few days later but once infection already spread. Govt messaging needs to make this clear!
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Vax rollout going well but reports from vaccination centres (e.g Watford) being told to bin last few Pfizer doses at end of day despite calls from front line or ICU staff who turned up to have a second dose earlier than 12 weeks. We need less NHS red tape and more flexibility.
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New cases down again today to 1159 per day as we move closer to the lowest levels recorded in the last 12 months despite the contant stories/fears of new variants messing up the plan. Vaccines ARE working. Thanks for logging with ZOE.!
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Great data from the Zoe CSS app as new cases in UK starting to fall rapidly- now under 25k per day in UK (peak was 43k) with R of 0.9 in nearly all areas and no signs of problems in the older groups. England levels back to those of early october? Is govt data upto date?
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As cases rise across the U.K. mainly driven by London this time - many are calling for schools to close . But the data show that the rises in children are the least of all age groups . So if you want actions based on science - closing schools is a bad idea !
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COVID still rising with one in 69 people now affected and around 74,000 cases a day - time to end the complacency as this is impacting the NHS despite cases being milder
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'Protect the NHS' could be one of the most harmful slogans in history as 5.9 million people wait for treatment- worth a read
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A well as daily rates setting new U.K. records and rising at over 10k cases daily the Zoe app is picking up big increases in the elderly for the first time this year. Covid is not over. thx for everyone’s support!
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The U.K. hotspots clearly tell the story . The Delta variant has taken a hold of these areas but numbers are around 4000 per day and is not taking hold more widely. Virtually all cases are aged under 50 or unvaccinated - so vaccines work. Thanks for your vital logging with ZOE
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Another massive 10 percent drop in new cases across the U.K. to 3385 as neighbours France have over 50000 per day and rising. Good news for ending Lockdown here. Thanks for logging on Zoë app
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We also need to start asking the difficult question of why we have been spending Three times more on testing than any other country in Europe for the last year and still have the highest rates of cases and hospitalisation. The taxpayer has a right to know how much was wasted.
Oh dear. This does sound pretty bad.
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The billion pound scam of private tests and travel starts to unravel.
So, it appears that the private lab which wrongly gave out 43,000 PCR negative results was Immensa, a company with no experience of PCR tested awarded a £119 million contract after only being in existence for 4 months. Corruption costs lives.
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Lucky me- Just had my 2 nd Pfizer jab meaning my protection should increase from 74 percent to over 95 percent. I’m expecting only a sore arm tomorrow. Thanks to great vaccine service at St Thomas’s @GSTTnhs ! Great work
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The news of this new variant is very concerning. This pandemic is far from over. Let's wear face coverings in crowded places, meet up in well ventilated places and get tested if you have any of symptoms. There are more than 3 - share this image so we can all #beclearonCOVID
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As ONS shows official confirmed cases are flat at around 69,000 cases daily - the ZOE Covid study shows a different picture across the UK with symptomatic cases increasing back towards the peak of 211,000 we saw a month ago. Suggests the confirmed data are missing most cases now
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To mask or not to mask? Londoners who are vaccinated believe they are safe . Massive failure of public education and lack of enforcement as Government complacent
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The media and politicians are tending to report bad news data rather than when our ZOE data shows new cases decreasing. Good to see Gov data on confirmed cases is also steadily reducing since 1st January- mirroring our ZOE data. Still high levels of virus and hospitals full.
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GPs call to strip away red tape such as crazy obligatory training on radicalisation and fire drills to deter vaccinators and slow our program - why isn’t there a vaccine tsar who can cut the crap and reduce risk aversion?
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A very surprising drop in official cases - but the BBC are incorrect in stating that cases have always fallen after lockdowns - the data has shown that the peak in cases was always before the major lockdowns not after - reflecting behaviour of the public
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Bad news and good news - new cases still rising daily now over 8000 but increases mainly in hotspots in North west and Scotland and driven by increases in the under 40s who are largely unvaccinated . No increases in over 60s so no major NHS burden. Thx for logging w ZOË APP!
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Zoe app today shows national decline in new cases has stopped with uptick in London and the south of England now visible. Let’s not make the mistake of a second freedom day. We need to remain vigilant , cautious and community spirited - thanks for logging!
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Data suggests around 98% of UK now have some level of immunity (both natural and vaccinated) - meaning that even if infected again- will have milder disease. This is hopefully why hospitalisations have not so far risen as fast as feared. Thanks to @FT for graph
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I’m confused by U.K. travel policy. ? Within a few days we will have the highest levels in Europe and yet we restrict travel to lower risk countries . We also make our returning citizens spend thousands of £ on tests even if fully vaccinated- unlike other EU countries? Logic ?
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Omicron BA.5 Now past 325,000 per day setting new records for Scotland and Wales and due to smash U.K. records within a week . Still no public health advice to help ? Thanks for logging with Zoe !.
UK cases reach 309,000 cases per day affecting currently over 1 in 20 people as this fifth wave of omicron BA5 shows no signs of slowing and hospitals filling up steadily. Still no signs of advice for the public - as U.K. supposedly the first to beat Covid @Join_ZOE
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Although the UK is facing major NHS problems due to a lack of capacity and huge numbers of cases in the South -the number of excess deaths is currently not as worrying as we go into lockdown 3.0 and we are already seeing the daily rates of new cases start to flatten
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Our data from the #ZOE app study shows a different picture - We see halving new cases since the peak on 1st Jan falling across the UK with an R of 0.8 . The #React study paused for a month in dec (unlike ours) so likely missed the peak so IMO trends unreliable this time.
Worrying findings in the Imperial React study of the latest Covid19 wave, including that the odds of infection have increased markedly for black people and key workers, & remain worryingly high for healthcare and care home workers, for the poorest and those in large households
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New Covid cases now below 3000 per day and upto a third of these may be false positives -as all areas see falls - Happy Easter 🐣
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Despite the science showing surfaces are NOT the thing to worry about- how many people will carry on this phobia post covid? This fear will continue to harm us mentally for years and over-sterilising damage our gut microbes too.
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We have new U.K. RECORD! Over 351000 daily new cases on the Zoe app - that 1 in 15 people with the virus currently. Still rising across England but flattening in Scotland and Wales. All age groups increasing but kids levelling so hopefully flat within a week . Thanks 🙏 4 logging
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Great timing as new cases hit 316000 admissions increasing and cases over 60 surging and we haven’t mentioned Long Covid yet . No sign of a slowdown - thanks for sharing.
Petition: Do not reduce funding for Covid research e.g ZoeApp @timspector
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Despite Indian Variant slowly replacing Kent - and Germany banning Brits - the ZOE app which logs symptomatic PCR disease is not showing any change in figures for last two weeks (still low at 2000-3000 cases/d) or signs it is spreading beyond the hotspots nationally. So good news
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The current wave of colds flu and strep and other infections could be related to Covid 19 messing with our immune system and immune memory. “Immune amnesia induced by measles and its effects on concurrent epidemics “
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I had my first vaccine today (Pfizer) @ the well organised St Thomas’s vaccine centre. We launched our campaign to get all vaccine recipients to log on the Zoe app to give everyone the best information on safety and immunity @GSTTnhs @KingsCollegeLon . So far no side effects!
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The US GOVT CDC tells its citizens these are the common symptoms of current Covid-19 -but the UK has not shifted its position since may 2020 despite the regular ZOE data to the contrary. Keeping the UK population ignorant with new variants around is not a great recipe 4 success.
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As Lockdown begins from the ZOE app survey which was the only one running over the last two weeks - we see the first signs that we have reached the peak of new cases in London 4 days ago. Let’s hope this continues and other areas follow. Thanks for Logging
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Hard to believe there is any science behind this - as France has a fifth of the number of cases as the U.K. and we can’t lock down every time we hear of a new variant of concern . This also disincentivises countries to look for new variants.
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New cases edging down slightly today after a week of rises - let’s hope it lasts and this was just a blip caused by pubs and shops reopening with mild infections. Thanks for logging on the Zoe app to help us all stay ahead of the news.!
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Despite “fears” around SA variants in London the rates of new cases dropped even further today on ZOË app - showing that we should be far less gloomy and vaccines are working - thanks for logging !
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The ZOE app back on track again -showing rates still decreasing but slower than last week as expected. Rates now the same as in early June 2020. Hospital cases also dropping 3 fold and now only 8-20% full across country. I am now optimistic for most of the UK + relaxed re schools
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Thanks - some of the media - dont like a realistic or sometimes more reassuring message - so often dont cover our data , preferring worst case scenarios to whats actually happening on the ground. Thanks to the millions of you who support us and are logging.
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Omicron B.5 is def winning. Over 265000 estimated cases daily and the highest rates of the pandemic recorded in Scotland as it is quietly reinfecting people across the U.K. thanks for your logging on the Zoe Health study !
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We are losing basic common sense in a Govt information vacuum - Covid has NEVER been more common or easier to catch - now over 350,000 new cases daily -so clearly this affects schools and offices and productivity.
I can't believe we're in the situation where this needs saying!.
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I think it will slowly fade. For the next year or so there will always be something to worry about (helped by the media!) . We all need to learn how to deal with the endemic disease and the risk of some uncertainty about life and its inherrent risks.
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Mark Drakeford: was the only head of nations who saw the potential of the zoe Covid app and used and promoted it for Wales . It was a pleasure to work with him and his team!
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Good news - ONS survey today closely matching our ZOE CSS data showing a national reduction in new cases and also in our data a reduction in the over 60's - so disapointing new tier system not reflecting the latest data + reduced pressures on the NHS + the collateral damage
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ZOE app reports new cases down a quarter on last week to 49k daily with UK R now 0.9 and most parts of the country now showing decreases in new cases which is encouraging. Note our data is a few days ahead of other sources and wont be seen in hospitals or total nos for 2 wks
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I've experienced omicron at first hand- it may be 'Milder' but its no picnic. Rates still increasing in many areas Also why the Govt dashboard is now 3-4 times lower than the ONS and ZOE estimates and not fit for purpose as they discuss ditching all surveillance surveys. .
Tim's latest update (this time from COVID isolation!) is out now, where he's talking about his own Omicron symptoms, giving you the latest data updates, and seeing how our cases compare with other countries. Watch on YouTube:
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Another big fall in Covid cases today to 1626 giving a chance of meeting someone with symptomatic disease of one in 1600 and less than that in many parts of the U.K. thanks for logging !
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ZOE app data today shows a drop in new cases in all parts of the UK except the N-W - although rates stay high everywhere with over 800,000 infectious people. Hospitals struggling with London 54% full with covid. But light at end of tunnel if we are sensible and informed. Thanks!
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Starting a microbiome sequencing study on different kombuchas and kefirs to see what is actually in them of benefit to us.
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In France- 1 in 2 people are refusing their AZ vaccines because of the fears of clots. The media fail to put risk in context . We have 79 cases total in 4 months. Each day 300 unvaccinated people have strokes and 240 have major clots, some related to medications and lifestyle.
Je suis désespéré. Plus de un patient sur deux que j’appelle ne veut plus venir se faire vacciner car c’est de l’AZ. Notre liste d’attente fond comme neige au soleil et surtout les patients ne se vaccinent pas. C’est catastrophique.
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Sad that in the UK we are still being ripped off by PCR testing firms when Govt claimed last month they would sort this out @grantshapps . Most other countries offer it for free. and accept that full vaccination works.
Trying to get #Covid test results to travel—nightmare. Almost missed plane. V helpful C&H chemist in #highbury but then fell into clutches of @RightangledLtd —middleman between chemist & lab. @RightangledLtd owned by Saudi entrepreneur. He took cut of £130–for what?.
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The drop in new cases continues with only 5089 a day positive, and with over a million PCR and LFD tests per day performed around 2000 may even be false positives. Now with vaccine effectiveness kicking in, these are one of lowest levels in europe and low admissions and deaths
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Good news. Some of the biggest consistent drops in COVID we have seen with now the lowest levels for a year ; colds and flu also dropping at similar rate - thanks for logging on the Zoe health study !
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Having my Moderna bivalent booster today @GSTTnhs . No side effects so far but expecting a sore arm. Need people to log their vaccine and symptoms on the Zoe Health study app so we keep track of this vaccine as cases start to rise again - thx for sharing and logging !
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With the good news about a possible vaccine and new cases decreasing across most of the country- there are some reasons to feel a bit more cheerful ! Thanks for logging
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More data suggesting higher rates of heart attacks and strokes following COVID19 infections in the U.K. @FT .Certainly something our health service can’t cope with this winter
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Totally support ending this madness! 1000 people get cancer each day and we don’t stop them buying cigarettes or junk food.
@JamesMelville @CareUnlock @JohnCampaign MANDATE unrestricted Care Home Access @Helen_Whately @MattHancock @BorisJohnson @CMO_England @ejomoore GUILTY👉isolation killing our loved ones💔 #LetUsIn TORTURE @HarrietHarman @timspector @CharlesWalkerMP @SirGrahamBrady @LordIndarjit @DesmondSwayne @JuliaHB1 @StevenJonMiller
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Zoe incidence data shows the UK new case rates overall falling again by 11% to 181,000- currently 1 in 25 affected - but NI and Scotland increasing. Real rates (ZOE and ONS) are 4 times greater than the UK Gov dashboard which are now totally misleading and should be abandoned
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Nearly 340,000 estimated daily cases today as all areas of the U.K. still rising except Scotland which may have peaked. By early next week we will be in new record territory. This doesn’t bode well for the expected bigger autumn wave. Thx for your support and logging w Zoe!
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New cases drop across UK for the fifth consecutive week despite fears of new variants. Now below 15k/day . Little difference in rates between the regions now. With reducing admissions as well this suggests restrictions + vaccines working well together. Thx for logging
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As Parliament debates need for toughened tiers - the govt data seems out of date as according to ZOE CSS survey data cases drop to 50% of peak levels with an R of 0.8 in line with dropping hospital cases nationally. Can we use the latest data next time? Thanks for logging !
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This messaging on vaccines will be problematic for the government. If our current Covid rate is <1 in 1000 people and vaccinated people are 95% protected - their risk of meeting is if I have got it right less than 1 in 20,000 x 1 in 20,000 - so very, very small indeed. .
Boris Johnson says two fully vaccinated people cannot meet indoors because vaccines 'are not giving 100% protection’. Therefore, what’s the bloody point of a vaccine passport then?.
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Good news! our CSS UK infection survey now with over a million swab test results shows for the 4th day in a row a fattening of the curve both nationally and regionally with R value down to 1.2. Still a way to go. See our app for details - keep logging and sharing ! thx
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U.K. Covid rates have started to climb again with around 126,000 cases per day and trends seen across all U.K. regions Affecting one in 38 people but hospitalisation still low. Thanks for logging
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Good news as UK new case rates keep dropping for four straight weeks and now 18k/day down from a peak of 69k/day on 1st jan. Hospital admissions dropping too with most regions under 30% covid patients. Need to start planning gradual relaxation strategy now.
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Cases on zoe app still rising across U.K. and now estimated at 145,000 daily cases likely dominated by BA.4/5 variants which are even more infectious. No sign that we can relax completely over summer
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