Will
@tex_238
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23. Drawing maps when I’m bored 🇲🇽🇵🇷🏳️🌈
Houston, TX
Joined July 2022
My Texas congressional map with zoomed in pictures for the Central Texas, Houston, and DWF districts.
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We. Need. Texas. Polls. We. Are. Not. Winning. Florida.
USA Today/Suffolk *Florida* poll dropping soon. early AM.
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Hillary Clinton’s been widely panned for how abysmal her campaigning was in MI, WI, and PA. It’s highly underrated, however, just how badly she did overall. She nearly lost the states of Maine and Minnesota, states that have safely remained in the Democratic column for years.
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I don’t think we’re here quiteee yet. But if this does happen, what would be 2024’s version of Indiana 2008?.
I’m ready to be flamed for this but I feel like we’re headed towards a 2008 style blowout. Idk.
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Wait, Allred is up by 12% against Cruz in TX-15?. Trump won TX-15 by ~3% and Beto lost TX-15 against Abbott 52.4-46.4%.
The path to the House majority runs through South Texas. Pass it on.
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This would honestly be such a cool state culturally. It would simultaneously be the most severe weather prone state in the whole country. It’s also pretty leftward trending. It would have very marginally have been a Clinton state!
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One thing I’ve noticed. Why are all the organizations exclusively polling Latinos having more favorable results for Harris than the typical national polls?.
📊 Entravision/AltaMed Latino Weekly Tracking Poll Week 5: . 🔵 Harris: 60%.🔴 Trump: 35%.
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Named this state Delta. It would be the only solidly Democratic state in the Deep South. Its two largest cities are Memphis and Jackson.
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A Democratic Texas win on the presidential level would quite literally be the destruction of the MAGA movement. It may very well be the only thing to break Trump’s grip on the GOP if he managed to give the GOP such a massive and historic loss.
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We’re most likely not winning Texas either, but it’s not trending rightward like Florida at the least.
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Kamala Harris should have no issues holding onto Maine and especially Minnesota in 2024.
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People, please stop making MALA a slogan. Mala means bad in Spanish 🤦♂️.
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@mnpolenjoyer Lol no. Biden improved everywhere in the suburbs compared to 2016. Why would I congratulate someone who gave us Donald Trump?.
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2004 marked the high point for Republicans with Latinos (not 2020), only losing 55-44% nationally. Bush flipped heavily Latino counties such as Cameron (Brownsville), only lost Hidalgo County (McAllen) by 10%, flipped Osceola County (Kissimmee) , and only lost Miami-Dade by 5%.
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@StephieTheLefty Oof, she underperformed Obama 2012 and Colorado has slided to the left since 2008.
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@silverknyaz_2 She did better than Obama 2012, but purely due to partisan trends. I remember waiting for Virginia in 2016 like genuinely just waiting for more results to drop since Trump was up for the longest of time 😅.
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Democrats, please just invest in the RGV for once. It helps to counter the immigration issue and the RGV’s not an expensive media market to begin with.
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@haydencehlich It’s not like she said she wouldn’t vote for him?. Not doing a performance at the White House does absolutely nothing to advance fascism in any way. It’s a concert.
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@Christopheyyy Georgia was only won by Trump by ~5% in 2016, so it wasn’t too unreasonable for it to flip even if it wasn’t expected. Indiana in 2004 voted for Bush by 20.68%.
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@mnpolenjoyer You cannot blame solely the third party. Her performance was abysmal and she underperformed Obama 2012 across multiple leftward trending states (like Colorado).
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Yet another Trump +5% Texas poll, but the demographics of those polled aren’t that representative of the state tbh. Respondents wise, only 24% were Hispanic and only 3% of respondents spoke Spanish.
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@OlmsteadTrinity Utah is actually a pretty good analogy if we can have a 2016 like scenario except this time the 3rd party pulls enough away from Trump to let Harris win. Plus it would flip back to red in 2028 like Indiana immediately flipped back in 2012.
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It’s funny to see pop stars having family involved in politics. Billie Eilish’s uncle used to be a Democratic congressman in Washington state.
I legitimately did not know that Chappell Roan's uncle was a Republican State Representative from Missouri (Darin Chappell). Not trying to wade into any discourse here, just another thing to prove that STATE LEGISLATORS ARE CONNECTED TO EVERYTHING!!!.
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@CA_Commissioner Absolutely. Clinton had long been hated by conservatives for decades and had a lotttt of skeletons in her closet. Harris does not have nearly as much baggage as Clinton. Harris has also already been on a winning ticket before.
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I still find it funny how other countries do polls of US presidential candidates. I’d want to see how the US would have voted in the Mexican general election.
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Cameron County (Brownsville) didn’t even flip in 2022 in a redder environment than 2024 with Mayra Flores as the incumbent.
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My favorite Harris-Walz logo/color version.
What do we think of the new yard signs compared to the old ones?
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@ZFlawles1s Alaska was my first thought until I remembered that it’s trending left unlike Indiana at the time. Utah or Kansas may be the answer. Big GOP wins with certain scenarios allowing for a Dem win (3rd party spoilers in Utah and a Gov. Kelly-esque scenario in Kansas).
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@RihannaFreak20 Eh. She’s just running for the seat to finish her mother’s term. She’s be in office from November to January. The people that are trying to be the nominee to rep. the seat from ‘24-‘26 are politicians like Sylvester Turner and Amanda Edwards.
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So Mayra Flores is apparently confirmed to be running for statewide office if she doesn’t win in November after all.
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@_fat_ugly_rat_ WI ‘22 and FL ‘18 were such winnable races too. The fact we lost a senate seat in such a blue year 🤦♂️.
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Sheinbaum is on track to win the most votes in Mexican history for a presidential election. Like AMLO, however, she is going to be one state short of an all state sweep. Aguascalientes was 39.7-31.9% for AMLO in ‘18. I wonder what led to the shift against Morena in ‘24.
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He better run for that seat again if we want any shot of winning it back.
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@PETEandrepete_ The only difference I think between Trump and Bush fatigue was that Bush did not amass this large cult of personality like Trump has. Trump supporters will stick by Trump. Many Bush 2004 voters voted Obama in 2008. There won’t be as much Trump 2020-Harris 2024 voters.
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Even when the usual pollsters do Latino over samples they come out to have more conservative results compared to the Entravision and Voto Latino polls.
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@RihannaFreak20 The scandal was such a stupid thing for him to do. Like all he had to do was not cheat 💀.
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Teachers unions against his pro voucher stance aren’t terminally online leftists. The ton of people who would view him very negatively since his office decided to settle a sexual harassment case and didn’t immediately fire that advisor are also not terminally online leftists.
@KaoticLeftist Shapiro upsets the 1% of the coalition who are terminally online leftists. Normal Democrats and undecided voters support Shapiro.
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The path to 270 for Harris runs through the blue wall. Trump currently leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. However, one huge caveat is that there is an absolutely large amount of votes left remaining in Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Detroit.
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@Thorongil16 It’s a repeating error. Those Denton results are very close to the Collin early vote results .
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@0liviajulianna @monica4congress Vote @MichelleVforTX for TX-15! She’s Monica De La Cruz’s opponent this November. If we can win in Alaska, we can keep Trump +3 TX-15 blue.
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@umichvoter Switch AZ with GA. In 2022, Democrats were able to get multiple statewide seats in AZ while in GA only Warnock won. AZ’s bluer than GA.
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@HardLeft2024 Allred’s expected to slightly over perform Harris statewide, but having Harris losing and Allred winning by 12% would be a big over performance in this district.
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Polls needs to start polling Latinos in subgroups (such as Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, etc). Latinos are not a monolithic group. This poll doesn’t bear the same weight if the shift is driven by one specific group, like Cubans. The poll lumps everyone together.
NBC News/Telemundo/CBC poll of Latino voters shows Harris only leading by 14 points with that group
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I doubt this happens, but I wish there was a South Texas poll. I want to see if Harris gets about where Biden did or if there’s a shift back to the Dems. 2004-2008 saw a big leftward shift after big GOP gains, so there’s a historical precedent.
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This is why districts like TX-15 should be polled. How are we going to analyze the Latino rightward trend if polling in these districts are given up upon. There’s always going to be polling error, but it won’t be fixed by just simply not polling these districts.
For example: in 2022, a lot of people were ready to write off Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez because the RGV was supposed to become a wave for the GOP. Ronchetti was going to sweep New Mexico because of the Great Hispanic Realignment, and Whitmer was in the race of her life.
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@_fat_ugly_rat_ Lol more people voted for Leon than both Flores and Sanchez combined. TX-34’s turnout was especially abysmal🤦♂️.
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@TheDaddyTwins @KHOU You realize she said all this because she was speaking at a round table with blind people right. That’s why she’s describing herself.
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Im starting to agree with polls that NC may be to the left of GA this year. I’m not basing this on rally size, but one interesting point is that she turned out so many people in Greensboro (a mid sized city). Greensboro’s around the same population as Corpus Christi, Texas.
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@JesseBarstow Missouri ironically enough nearly almost flipped in 2008 to Obama. Big difference was that it was still considered a swing state back then unlike Indiana which has never been one until 2008 randomly.
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@gavinbena Surprised, but still thinking Dems lose Florida since Dems couldn’t even take the state with 63% of the vote there in ‘16.
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I wished they said how much Harris is losing the district by. I haven’t seen any polling from this district on the presidential or senate level so I wonder if the poll was publicly released or not.
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@Seige_Rootz @haydencehlich I assure you that the election will not be swayed by Chappel Roan not performing at the WH lmao. People are allowed to protest admin. policies, that doesn’t mean you’re not going to vote for him. Her position is one many Gen Zers would take and we’re still voting Biden in Nov.
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@TheDaddyTwins @KHOU She’s describing herself to people who cannot see her. Also not everyone was born blind, they have seen colors before. Describing yourself to a blind person is something ridiculous to make into a controversy lol.
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Some say Bexar shouldn’t be in TX-28 due to how different S TX and San Antonio vote in primaries, but how’s putting El Paso w/ Starr County (700 miles apart) better. South & West TX have different cultures & voting patterns + campaigning in that district would be a nightmare.
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@newtnewtriot Florida has a history of voting for progressive initiatives and still voting Republican up and down the ballot. They’ve voted for restoring felon voting rights, medical marijuana legislation, and minimum wage increases to $15 while voting Republican at the top of the ticket.
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Decided to map a US pres. election with Mexico’s 2024 candidates. Sheinbaum is pretty progressive while Gálvez ran a very moderate campaign. In the US, I would expect suburbs and exurbs becoming very PAN friendly with some slight WWC movement to Morena.
I still find it funny how other countries do polls of US presidential candidates. I’d want to see how the US would have voted in the Mexican general election.
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New Jersey Congressional District Map. Based off 2021 Governor results:. - Van Drew (NJ-2) and Kean (NJ-7) would both lose. -NJ-5 remains the only potentially vulnerable seat (Biden +10.3 —> Ciattarelli +4.1)
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Typically the comments section on Instagram is …. 😐😅. So it’s interesting to see this backlash on that app. Especially from Latinos since I’ve noticed a bigger conservative Latino online presence lately.
Update: Nicky Jam deletes post supporting Trump, disables comments on last post, after Maná removes their collab in wake of endorsement. Even I’m surprised how hard they’re going at him in comments section of his second to last post
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@ChickenandW It’s because she managed to improve with Latino voters, but had a sharp drop in support from white voters. Florida was a state she genuinely had a shot at and could have won her the election if she was able to claw back some support from white voters.
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Let her speak. If they have time for multiple REPUBLICANS to speak at the DEMOCRATIC National Convention, they should be able to accommodate a Democratic Palestinian who has endorsed Harris.
My speech urged us to unite behind Harris, criticized Trump, and spoke about the promise of this moment. The only reason we’re doing this is to save the soul of our party and prevent bad actors from using our pain in an ongoing voter suppression campaign.
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@umichvoter Collin most likely flips. If Denton flips though, then TX is in for a very narrow election.
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Maybe I’ll end up being wrong (polls say I’m wrong), but I still think Harris does better with Latinos than Biden. She’s hammering the economic message that turned voters towards Trump in 2020 and she’s doing outreach that Biden neglected to do.
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Trump +4% Alaska in a poll with a large sample size is not a good look for him. Harris should do some ad buys. Peltola’s shown that a Democrat can in fact win in Alaska + Alaska’s not an expensive media market either.
Q: If the November 2024 general election for US President was held today, for whom would you vote?. Among 1,254 LV's:. Donald Trump 47 (48).Kamala Harris 42 (44).Robert Kennedy Jr 5 (4).Undecided 6 (5).
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@_fat_ugly_rat_ Economically it would be interesting. Two major port cities, big oil/gas industry. Tourism would also play a role in the New Orleans part of the state. Agree on the new Louisiana thing though.
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@RihannaFreak20 I’m still tentatively sure that Biden will change strategy in 2024, but after seeing many Latino heavy districts being left out to dry in 2022 by the DCCC I still have my doubts.
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My ideal PA map. Fitzpatricks’s defeated and there’s another Biden +19.2 Buck county based district now. Perry would most likely lose also. Cartwright is the only casualty, but it still results in a net gain of 2 seats for Dems. Also, his seat is right trending anyways.
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Harris County is experiencing high turn out, nearly matching 2020 levels despite less early voting locations and without COVID-era accessible voting measures (such as drive through voting).
The line at this Houston polling place for day 2 of early voting is pretty wild, & it’s been like this most of the day (& this is outside the 100 feet where we’re not allowed to shoot). Harris county saw 126k early voters for their 1st day of early voting. In 2016 that # was 67k
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Alternate ideal South Texas map:. TX-34: Biden +16.3. TX-15: Biden +14.2. TX-28: Biden +14.9
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RGV reversion confirmed 🙂↕️.
This is in McAllen, Edinberg, Hidalgo county. I know this is true because it’s by a member of our group! The RGV is 🔥🔥🔥 up!.
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Another example from today:. The Hispanic Federation poll shows Harris winning Latinos overall by 59%, and by 62% in battleground states. The poll also shows Harris up by double digits w/ those having Mexican, Puerto Rican, South American, and Central American descent.
One thing I’ve noticed. Why are all the organizations exclusively polling Latinos having more favorable results for Harris than the typical national polls?.
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@LinkofSunshine Isn’t this 2004?. In 2000, Bush won Travis and lost Cameron. The left map shows red Cameron and blue Travis.
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@umichvoter Arizona went blue in 2018. Georgia didn’t. Arizona voted in Democrats in multiple statewide offices in 2022. Georgia didn’t.
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Her DNC speech alone at the last night of the convention shows how much she has moderated. She openly supports an immigration bill that has GOP House support and even has the Cheneys endorsing her. Don’t know how else she can moderate short of becoming an actual Republican.
The basic story of what's happening right now is that Kamala is more likely than not going to lose this election and it's in large part because she's not moderating sufficiently.
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Get Dolores Huerta to do a reboot of this ad.
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When DRA uploads all the 2024 presidential data, people are going to be able to make a ton of Trump won majority minority districts and it’ll be insane. I’m pretty sure you can draw double digit Trump won districts in places like the RGV now too.
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We’re most likely not winning Texas either, but it’s not trending rightward like Florida at the least.
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