Ted Boydston
@tboydsto
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Investor • Bitcoin & Macro Enthusiast • Polymath • Retired Electrical Engineering Manager • I never DM with financial advice
Joined January 2014
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@Rainmaker1973
It’s a dwarf sperm whale and the reddish-black cloud is it’s defensive ink burst
Ref:
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2K
#Bitcoin
models I’m consulting
CTM -
#CTM
, et al.
Manual - Manually aligned CTM. Peak 12/25.
@tboydsto
Gold -
@TechDev_52
Blocks -
@fairfreedigital
,
@therationalroot
All models are wrong, but some are useful. NFA. DYOR.
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Models I’m tracking
CTM -
#CTM
@jclcapital
Manual - Manually aligned CTM
@tboydsto
Gold -
@TechDev_52
Log - Logarithmic
@tboydsto
Blocks - Block time model
@fairfreedigital
&
@therationalroot
KS Model -
@StandfieldKen
All models are wrong, but some are useful. NFA & DYOR
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I’m tracking
#Bitcoin
price targets from
@jclcapital
,
@TechDev_52
,
@fairfreedigital
,
@StandfieldKen
,
@intocryptoverse
using my historical price model and quantadelic’s logarithmic regression indicator.
The gold & log models are exiting validation, leaving the balance valid. 1/2
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@hurricanetrack
Hurricane Andrew went from struggling for life and not impacting the US, to a strengthening storm aiming for the treasure coast, to a category 5 monster hitting 180 miles south in Homestead in just 36 hours.
While forecasting is better, be prepared for unexpected
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Bitcoin’s current 4-year cycle remains eerily similar to the 2012 4-year cycle, with the current cycle hitting the same fib levels on a longer timeframe. Coincidence?
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#CTM
Meta Model for
#Bitcoin
still within range. A move to $58K would bring price into high probability range. Note that price was rejected by S2F, but is now using it as support.
@100trillionUSD
said institutions like to play S2F zones. Perhaps this is such a play.
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#Bitcoin
log fib extension from initial offering shows a $350K top late Dec to early Jan.
Inspired by
@TechDev_52
‘s pinned tweet using log fibs
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Latest
#Bitcoin
#CTM
Meta Model is on time and in range. Join the Conquering the Markets YouTube channel by
@jclcapital
to learn more.
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The
#CTM
modeling team has updated the Bitcoin Meta Model by removing the 2012 to 2016 correlation transition model to better align with models from
@irandall13
and
@JesseOlson
that
@jclcapital
has been presenting.
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Last week, a gentlemen paid our restaurant bill when we asked how he was doing. Today, we paid it forward by randomly paying a woman’s bill. We then witnessed that women pay it forward to another woman who had lost her husband. We were all in tears. Do good. Pay it forward.
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I’m tracking
#Bitcoin
price targets from
@jclcapital
,
@TechDev_52
,
@fairfreedigital
,
@StandfieldKen
,
@intocryptoverse
using my historical price model and quantadelic’s logarithmic regression indicator.
1/3
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@BritishHodl
I cannot lookup symbols in the buy interface for any of the new ETF’s through
@MerrillLynch
. I can search successfully in research, but clicking buy produces the warning below
FWIW, Merrill has been blocking crypto assets for years. For example, they blocked $GBTC pre-ETF
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@JesseOlson
@jclcapital
@irandall13
Yep. I’ve been playing around with the meta model and have noticed it’s about 3 days behind. Shifting it, aligns the wave 1 low just like above, and interestingly, sees the 2016 cycle hit the ATH on the 18th (ETF approval, Evergrande default, and a few other minor alignments)
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Tweets about Bitcoin offered the same peak warning in the last cycle as Google Trends. Thanks
@TechDev_52
for your Google Trends insight.
#Bitcoin
$BTC
#CTM
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I’m publicly apologizing to
@intocryptoverse
for my attempt to measure performance of target price using geometric mean, making it appear below par.
In that light. I’ve decided to remove the tweet, and regroup. Thank you Ben for your feedback.
#Bitcoin
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The S&P 500 priced in Gold is fighting the 1967 peak. Yes, you read that right, 1967. Unfortunately, this chart demonstrates US dollar debasement quite well.
Fib arcs & channels estimates late 2030’s as the next macro top.
#Bitcoin
should be greater than $1M by then.
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Bitcoin making a run for wave 2 shown using
#CTM
technical and cycle analysis. Thanks
@jclcapital
!
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Credits & inspiration for
#CTM
modeling in alphabetical order
@100trillionUSD
@ChartsBtc
@Crypt0Jed1
@fairfreedigital
@HalvingTracker
@irandall13
@jclcapital
@JesseOlson
@JohalMiles
@mantistrades
@misconfig_exe
@tboydsto
@TechDev_52
@therationalroot
Thank you!
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Buy Bitcoin on a new moon and sell Bitcoin on a full moon? Weird how well it works…
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I’m tracking
#Bitcoin
price targets from
@jclcapital
,
@fairfreedigital
,
@StandfieldKen
,
@intocryptoverse
using my historical price model and quantadelic’s logarithmic regression indicator.
All models are nearing or are just outside 1 standard deviation.
1/2
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Study markets
Don’t worry why prices move
Strategize trades before trading
Sit idle while winners run
Know & trust thyself
Follow the trend
Study trader psychology
Accept market teachings
Cultivate patience
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
Jessie Livermore
#CTM
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@JesseOlson
@TechDev_52
@jclcapital
Interesting. One of my geometric average models shows an eerily similar number. 🤔
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#Bitcoin
retesting support from the 100D SMA and the S2F RMSE band with additional support just below at $52K from bull market support band. Order books show a sell wall at $55K and buy walls as $53K and $52K. Looking good for a turnaround, but I’d wait for the downtrend breakout
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If
#Bitcoin
topped in 2021, then capitulation should occur soon based on historical performance. Interestingly, however, price is exiting historical performance to the upside. Perhaps volatility is now compressed due to institutions or this was not a top. Something to keep 👀 on
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@Rainmaker1973
Fourier series enters the chat…
Wow, making Fourier series animations turns out to be super fun. Not exactly original at this point, but so lovely! Any shapes/figures you'd like to see show up in a video?
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Good things happen when
#Bitcoin
closes above the 350 DMA of the PiCycle. Average of prior cycles:
To first pullback: 68% up over 23 days
To PiCycle top: 800% up over 198 days
Assuming a $70K close today:
To first pullback: $117K on 2-Apr
To PiCycle top: $630K on 24-Sep
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@jclcapital
Assuming the current model holds, the bear low should be $65K, but could range anywhere from $56K to $90K. Conversely, this suggests a top between $311K to $600K assuming a 82% to 85% drawdown.
#Bitcoin
#CTM
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Worth a watch
My conversation with
@balajis
is now live.
We discuss the current banking crisis, why he thinks the dollar is in trouble, and the logic behind his $1 million bitcoin bet.
Balaji believes he is acting as Paul Revere that "the printing is coming!"
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