Tarekcoin👾
@tarekfad
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Finance, Football ( @LFC ), Travels. *Personal Views* not those of my employer. Not investment advice, solicitation or for profit. Founder #tarekcoin 👾 @LSEalumni
Joined April 2009
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#Saudi
banking source: Credit card spending in foreign currency down by over a third in the past few months. Locals staying at home and spending in Riyals
#Economy
#RiyadhSeason
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The Oxford University Executive MBA costs $111,447 for tuition only. There's nothing in that course that you couldn't find online, for free.
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Oil prices too high:
It’s war against USA
Oil prices too low:
It’s war against USA
Dear USA:
It’s not always about you!
Industry is oversupplied and inefficient producers have to exit.
Ted Cruz, other senators, warn Saudis to stop using oil in 'economic warfare' against the US
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Kuwaiti friend: Did you know 90% of Kuwaitis are employed by government & salaries consume 70% of budget? Shocking!!
Me: Wow! Anyway, how’s your daughter doing?
Kuwaiti: Great! She got a job in the Ministry, excellent salary, long holidays and she leaves work at 1:30pm
Me: 🤨
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*Dubai Tax*🧵
It’s time for the media to stop lazy references to “tax-free Dubai”.
Dubai has implemented corporate taxation and already imposes VAT, import duties, municipality (housing) charges, property transfer taxes, road tolls and a wide range of fees on services.
(1/5)
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These are not necessarily exact but at $7,443 the UAE may be the most expensive country in which to start a business. It's $1,266 in Saudi Arabia, $230 in Bahrain, $17 in the UK and $725 in the US.
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An easy exam to apply for but one of the hardest to pass. Worth the sacrifice only if you need it for work and are fully committed. Forget family, friends and fun for 6 months a year for a minimum of 3 years!
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Wow! 12-Month SAIBOR has broken above 6%. Saudi borrowers are in for a shock when they refinance next at between 7%~9%.
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Fascinating debate at
@FIIKSA
between crypto sceptic
@Nouriel
and
@Scaramucci
who made a strong case for
#bitcoin
but was gracious enough to wish
#tarekcoin
👾 all the best!
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In the past sixteen years, the
#GCC
economy has grown by around 150% (1.5x). Over the same period, the combined profits of *all* listed companies (excluding banks/Aramco) has been broadly unchanged in nominal dollars, and will be *lower* this year than in 2005. Please read again.
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Saudi Arabia appears to have gone for the "destroy and rebuild" economic model. Companies now forced to restructure, merge, or shut down. Hugely deflationary in the short-term, with recovery requiring deep and supportive reforms.
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The largest asset bubble is no longer in stocks or bonds. Real estate is - by far - the biggest and most widely held asset.
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In 2020 the UAE exported more gold, diamonds, jewellery, precious metals and stones than crude oil - about $42.6 billion (19.75% of all exports). Oil (crude/refined) gas and minerals at nearly $70 billion accounted for 32.4% of total exports.
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How UAE firms can help the economy:
1. Banks: pass on interest rate cuts *immediately*.
2. Telcos: slash prices to support workers at home.
3. Mall operators: offer tenants rent holidays.
4. Master developers: suspend fees for home renovations.
Greater good > a year’s profits.
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Up 180% in two years and not a crypto currency…
…the Abu Dhabi ADX stock index 😳
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If the S&P500 ends the year above 4,000, I am handing back my CFA charter, shaving my head and moving to Tibet.
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Bloomberg’s Chief Emerging Markets Economist
@ZiadMDaoud
bewildered by
#tarekcoin
👾 after calculating its impact on global money supply, and dazzled by the range of colorful options.
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“This is a continuation of a shift in the way Saudi Arabia supports its regional partners from grants and soft loans to strategic long-term investment,” via
@SameralAtrush
@FTMidEastAfrica
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Breaking: A landmark moment comparable to Roger Bannister breaking the 4-minute mile. Gas in Dubai tops AED 400 a tank! ⛽️
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Messi was not the only victim. This guy will do anything for a photo with celebrities.
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Three reasons companies should discourage Working From Home after pandemic:
1. Difficult to integrate new employees.
2. Difficult to build or maintain corporate culture.
3. Limited employee interaction leads to information leakage and lost business opportunities.
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He has covered global financial markets, interviewed world leaders, and grilled central bankers, but
#tarekcoin
👾 has left anchor and author
@youseftv
bewildered and speechless. 🚀
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Probably the busiest I have seen the DIFC on a Sunday since March 2020. Beginning of the end!
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In the five years since
#SaudiArabia
's
#vision2030
was announced
#UAE
has attracted more than double FDI of larger neighbour. Saudi attracted more
#FDI
just in 2008 than since 2017. Trend is heading in the right direction but trajectory needs to steepen to achieve stated targets.
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A major UAE bank requires the retention of a AED 50,000 minimum balance for the basic SME Business Banking package plus transaction fees on virtually every activity. It won't be long before these dinosaurs get disrupted.
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Shares in Lebanese banks have more than doubled, even as they helped destroy the savings of millions. How are the jails not full with these crooks?
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For some reason Dubai is held to a higher standard than many States, including European countries. It has made unimaginable compromises over the past two decades. Not Utopian by any means, but enough of the tired commentary. Are there better models in the neighborhood?
In addition to using influencers to accentuate the positive, there have also been attempts to steamroller the narrative by intimidating, even threatening those holding other views, often very discreetly, creating a culture of fear about commenting on anything potentially critical
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Tesla accepting Bitcoin is old news. You can now buy
@LucidMotors
with just one
#Tarekcoin
@FIIKSA
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Good read on Dubai’s challenges. “Everyone is cutting costs to preserve cash. There is going to be a bloodbath in the SME sector — lots of failures, and most are going to happen as we come out of the lockdown.” By
@simeonkerr
@cornishft
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Less than $7,000 to be among the “Top 10 Most Influential Business Persons in the Middle East”, apparently for Forbes magazine. Maybe I can start an online funding campaign 🤣
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Good news for Dewa shareholders. Just got my latest bill. I’m forecasting *massive* dividends.
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A long read on how
#Dubai
became a magnet for young professionals fleeing Britain for better salaries and lifestyles. “Some parents now even see it as a better place to work and raise a family than Britain, where stagnation grips the economy”. [Paywall]
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Dubai Chamber of Commerce survey of 1,228 chief executives of "companies across various sectors, about three-quarters of which are small businesses with fewer than 20 employees" found that 70% "expect to close within the next six months." Shocking. Tragic.
More than two-thirds of
#Dubai
businesses expect to shutter within 6 months — survey via
@financialtimes
#coronavirus
#covid19
#uae
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Last week JP Morgan warned that oil might spike to $380 on Russia supply cuts. This week Citi says oil heading to $65 on recession fears. Two scenarios with very different effects on GCC economies. Nobody knows.
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Supporting Saudi Arabia’s diversification strategy and the UAE healthcare sector!
The following brands contributed 93% of food group Americana's 2022 revenue.
KFC, 61%
Hardees, 17%
Pizza Hut, 11%
Krispy Kreme, 4%
Ironically, the Saudi sovereign fund owns ~33% of the business, a country that struggles with 40% obesity and 70% overweight population rates.
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PWC 2019 study of 389 listed GCC firms: "An increasing trend of poor behaviour in delaying payments to suppliers rather than addressing other options to help suppliers access cash quicker". SMEs always paying the price. Why bother to start a business?
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The “social contract” that helped GCC merchant families build empires included government contracts, subsidies and exclusive agencies. These are being revised through reforms that prioritize efficiency, economic growth and development.
@simeonkerr
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The US economy is great not because of its government, but thanks to its companies, managers, and entrepreneurs.
#GCC
governments have done plenty in the past couple of years. Economies are being let down by the private sector. Complacent leadership and poor strategies.
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Three of the five largest shareholders in Credit Suisse are from the GCC. SNB, QIA and Olayan own around 20% and have basically lost their entire investment.
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After 9 month working from home, I reckon the set up now is just about perfect.
Who needs to go back to an office?
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Great day in Doha. Everything worked from airport to metro to fan zone. No traffic problems observed. World class stadiums, amazing atmosphere and lots of goodwill and banter among fans on all sides…(unlike some of my followers 🙄) Big congrats to
#WorldcupQatar2022
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Interview covered lots of sensitive issues (religion, foreign policy). On economy, it’s clear that MBS has a strong handle on details and numbers. Strong conviction in strategy. Very much a CEO performance.
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#Dubai
recorded 40,000 home sales worth £17.1 billion in the first nine months of this year, up 60 per cent on the whole of 2020, putting it on course to equal or surpass the transaction volumes last seen in the boom years of 2013 and 2014. by
@johnarlidge
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I'm hosting the *biggest* 80s party when the pandemic is over and you are all invited.
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Just met the CEO of a listed Saudi company who complained the last consultant presentation he saw had the details of another client still on a slide.
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Unsettling call with a large GCC business whose major headache is not finding new sales, but getting paid for old ones. Biggest customer: the government.
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Only great economists understand the true value of money! Iraq’s next(?) central bank governor
@ZiadMDaoud
at the
@BloombergTV
studios looking healthy and well.
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Dubai’s debt to GDP reportedly declined from 78% in 2020 to 25% recently. An extraordinary reduction within a short period. Corporate taxes to add considerable revenues in 2024/2025.
Dubai lowers its total debt to 25% of GDP by repaying loans, taking advantage of an economic recovery
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On the back of the vaccine news the Dubai stock market should fly tomorrow. Few economies have been hit harder. Fingers crossed that this is the beginning of the end to this devastating pandemic.
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My quotes in
@thetimes
on how “the Gulf is going through a golden age — bigger and better than we saw in the oil booms of the 70s and 80s.” “The foundations of growth are much more secure now” and “economies are far more diversified.”
@johnarlidge
{sub£} ?
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In an increasingly xenophobic world fueled by bigotry and extreme nationalism the UAE's open door immigration policy stands out. I've spent over a decade working and living among more than 200 other nationalities and have just renewed my residency for another 10 years.
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🧵"Rebuilding the Economy" proposes to reframe relationship between GCC public and private sectors, rewarding companies that transition from dependency and hopeless business models, while helping govts achieve fiscal sustainability. No punches pulled.
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Toyota claims it will produce EVs powered by solid-state battery with a range of 1,200km and charging time of 10 minutes by 2027 or 2028. HUGE implications for transport and storage.
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UAE showing vision and leadership, again. Really positive development.
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Riyadh is getting expensive. Burj Al Hamam is good but it doesn’t have a Michelin star yet! $20 for two skewers of chicken - about $2 a piece.
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The Saudi macroeconomic story is more appealing than the microeconomic one. While the government is proactive in restructuring the economy, the private sector is mostly sitting on its backside, hoping for tailwinds. Another reason not to like the stock market at these levels.
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Last year I flew from Dubai to Riyadh for a single client meeting. A 16-hour day trip. Don’t think I’ll do something like that again. Acceptance of Zoom, WebEx, Skype and FaceTime for commercial use is going to reduce business travel, a lot!
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Aramco’s dividend payout is now much bigger than its income. Not a problem if oil rebounds next year. BIG problem if it doesn’t.
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Bitcoin target is $783,456 because, why not?!
* Not a functional currency - nobody spends it, because it only goes up!
* Profits collected in “paper” Dollars!
* 99% chance of regulation.
* Try to get out in a stampede.
A bubble, a chance to make money, but not for investors.
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The
#Saudi
/
#UAE
HQ story is becoming a distraction from the positive bigger picture. Fact is that the "Gulf region is growing fast enough to sustain offices in multiple jurisdictions" by
@BakheitNesreen
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While the Saudi public sector under young ministerial leadership embraces change, many in the private sector are counting on the return of the 'good old days'. They will be disappointed.
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I’ve woken up to the awful realization that thousands of GCC residents will lose their jobs over the coming weeks. No cash handouts, no loan or mortgage relief, and perhaps only statutory payments. Be supportive, helpful, kind.
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I’m sure someone has tweeted this already, but Tesla’s market cap at over $800 billion is bigger than Saudi Arabia’s annual GDP 🤷🏻♂️
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I don’t visit Jeddah often enough but it seems to have the biggest potential of any Saudi city. The original Red Sea resort.
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A high level meeting in Switzerland to discuss a potential switch from Bitcoin to
#Tarekcoin
👾🚀
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I’ve decided not to attend Davos this year partly because it’s too cold but mainly because I wasn’t invited.
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Historic moment as the first international
#tarekcoin
👾 transaction is successfully completed in
@StarbucksKSA
🇸🇦🚀
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THREAD: No resource dependent economy has transitioned quickly, smoothly and without upheaval. With possibility that oil demand has peaked, Saudi Arabia is in race against time to meet Vision2030 objectives. Window to diversify is closing and pace of change must accelerate. (1/3)
Saudi's trillion dollar private sector plan 'Shareek' aligns with Vision 2030
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Owning a traditional bank may be a poor investment over the next 10 years. Banks borrow from the public and lend that money back to the public at a generous spread. An App can do that for a fraction of the cost. Disintermediation and disruption - just starting.
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The weighting of Alrajhi Bank in the Tadawul index is 16.5%. The combined weighting of the other 8 banks is 21.8%. Alrajhi’s weighting is almost the same as Aramco+SABIC+STC. How does that make sense?
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I'm looking for a teenager to manage my money. No experience necessary. CFA/MBA holders need not apply.
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Wasn’t dressed to climb the mountain but got to visit a replica of the cave of Hira' in Jabal Al Nour where the prophet Mohammed is believed to have received his first revelation from the angel Gabriel.
#IftarInMecca
.
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We’re not in a recession until you can walk into a shop and buy a Rolex.
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Exactly 15 years ago I wrote “The Great Arabian Bubble” recommending to sell the Saudi stock market at just under 14,000. The index rallied another 40% over the next 7 month. It was frustrating, but I never wavered. The bubble burst and TASI crashed 80% over next 4 years. (1/2)
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Delighted that an Arab country is hosting the World Cup. And while foreign media coverage so far has been unfair, even xenophobic, Qatar is not doing itself any favours. They’ve had 10 years to make the big decisions and last minute changes suggest poor planning.
BREAKING: Qatari officials are set to ban the sale of alcohol within its World Cup stadiums, dramatically reversing a decision to allow sales of Budweiser beer, sources say
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So
@SultanAlQassemi
claims limited knowledge of monetary systems but reckons
#tarekcoin
👾 is aesthetically flawless, and is considering adding it to his private art collection.
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0
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Really cool to be back in
@middleeast
studio with
@ManusCranny
and
@youseftv
. First guest since pandemic, apparently. No questions on
#tarekcoin
👾 but we spoke
#Saudi
,
#Oil
, Fed. Link later. Thanks to
@sarahphotovideo
for arrangements and photography!
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KPMG Lower Gulf ordered to pay $231m because of poor-quality audit work on Abraaj fund. Fine exceeds its revenues of $210m in most recent year. Unfortunate but accountability (pun intended) is important for investors and regional economic development.
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I’m not signing up for webinars. The whole point of attending conferences was the buffet with 9 different desserts.
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Reminded by a friend that the GCC is not only coping with Covid but lower oil prices and a massive expat exodus. A "triple whammy". Whether the response to these multiple crises has been sufficient is not even a matter of debate.
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8
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I’ve never been a fan of New Year parties, but I’ll definitely celebrate the end of this one.
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Disappointed. I had showered, shaved, and put on a clean new shirt but my Zoom link failed. Always great to chat with
@_HadleyGamble
and thanks to
@themmagraham
Team Biden say they will recalibrate their relationship with Saudi Arabia - but is cutting
#MBS
out of the equation realistic?
@CNBCi
@tarekfad
joins me to discuss
#saudiarabia
#ksa
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To put the scale and speed of the Saudi VAT hike in perspective, Japan first introduced a 3% 'consumption' tax in 1989, raised it to 5% in 1997, to 8% in 2014 and 10% in 2019 - a 30-year journey punctuated with offsetting fiscal programs.
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First business trip in TWENTY months coming up next week. Destination: Rio(dh) 🎉✈️ 🇸🇦
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I sold my house in England a few years ago and left the net proceeds in Sterling. I am now seriously considering converting them into AED to pay next month's DEWA bill...
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PIF foreign investment strategy will get more controversial the longer austerity persists. As article says “Saudi nationals will not appreciate millionaire footballer salaries being paid for by VAT on groceries”. Balance in the short term may be necessary.
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