Steve Clapham, Analyst Author Podcaster Substacker
@steveclapham
Followers
12,950
Following
2,720
Media
667
Statuses
7,072
Former hedge fund partner. I train professional investors in forensic accounting. Online investing training school. I can help you become a better investor.
Substack | YouTube | Spotify
Joined April 2009
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Pinned Tweet
I am the former partner of a Tiger Cub and former Head of Research at a second multi-billion hedge fund. I now have a training business and this thread explains what I do and the free resources I make available.
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Best bit of $BRK meeting for me was the revelation that the Salomon Bros balance sheet didn’t balance for 12 years so they just used a plug number. Auditor Arthur Andersen went on to audit Enron.
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$BABA - I am on page 217 of the annual report. I have barely read a financial number. This must be one of the most complex companies, or at least annual reports, I have ever come across. Interested to hear if anyone has made it to page 780. Please DM me if so. Looks odd to me.
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Check out my latest blog - looking at Amazon's cash flow. Many investors do not fully understand the nuances of the cash flow statement and hopefully this will help. If it doesn't, please let me know.
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Bronte Capital's Q2 letter is sober reading but is a must not be missed letter. Our summary and the full letter attached below. Don't forget to sign up.
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Coming soon...
New podcast will feature practitioners with the objective of learning about investing.
We will take a different approach.
I hope you will like it and please spread the word.
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You may not have heard of Quintin Price but he used to run active equities at Blackrock - he reported to Fink. Below is what he said about my book. The Kindle is on offer to Nov 24 at the crazy price of 1.99. Please buy it, read it, and rate it. And tell all your friends.
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The "club" is a site for keen investors. The library has 1500 investment articles, fund letters, stock ideas etc. Link is to the public area, with mini blogs. Sign up for full access including free training etc. It's FREE!
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Podcast
#1
: 2 investors who went to Eton, are titans in their fields but via different routes. One has run his fund for 27 years & now has $28bn AUM. The other
@brenthoberman
has started multiple companies & is one of the most successful people in EU tech.
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One of best podcasts I have listened to in a long time. Thanks
@patrickc
. Some wonderful Irish blarney and some amazing insight. Earning Your Stripes: My Conversation with Patrick Collison via
@farnamstreet
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A big thank-you to Fintwit!
My book made it to nr 1 in Investing in Amazon. Amazing! I am really humbled by the interest. I would of course like to thank everyone who bought it, and I hope you enjoy it and find it useful, please let me know. 1/
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My conversation with
@Billbrowder
is so worth listening to. Even friends with no interest in investing enjoyed it. And done if the clips have blown up on YouTube. Check it out at
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Our latest blog: content spend at Netflix is soaring. Too much is capitalised and not hitting earnings. Its stated policy does not stack up with cash spend & P&L charges. Our forensic analysis suggests something seems amiss.
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New site for keen investors is open. Library has 1500 investment articles, fund letters, stock ideas etc. Link is to public area, sign up for full access including free training, with accounting red flags coming soon plus book reviews. It's FREE!
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I have created/curated a library of investment resources on my revamped website. It’s password protected so you need to sign up. It’s a fantastic resource, full of ideas help and inspiration. Will post some of content here. But it’s FREE! Check it out:
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I used to take a cab to work, the quickest way to be at my desk by 07:15. Now I start when I like and deliberately walk the long way round to enjoy this view on a crisp autumn morning. I don’t miss the cab.
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Carson Block of
@muddywatersre
gives a brilliant research tip in our conversation.
He reads back several years of call transcripts to check executives’ language and promises.
You may be hunting for honest rather than fraudulent managers, but this is still great advice.
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Thrilled to tell you that my book will be published on 24 November. Explains my research process and how I analysed stocks at the hedge funds. Lots of anecdotes and some practical advice.
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You don't want to miss this. Seriously.
Episode 2 of our podcast. I interview Stuart Roden, former Chairman of Lansdowne Partners and one of the most successful hedge fund managers around.
I learned a lot. So will fintwit. Please subscribe.
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My book, the Smart Money Method is available on launch day, November 24, for just 1.99. This is what the CEO of Schroders had to say.
You can pre-order now - please buy it, read it and PLEASE leave a review. Hope you enjoy it and find it useful.
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Such a privilege to have a discussion with Kyle Bass. He doesn’t mince his words on China. Plus encyclopaedic knowledge.
@Jkylebass
has done multiple interviews for
@RealVision
. Working my way through them. Great.
“That is outright theft! Jack Ma should be in jail…”
@Jkylebass
&
@steveclapham
on the prevalence of accounting irregularities, balance sheet disasters and downright fraud in China’s biggest tech companies.
Pure 🔥 👉
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Podcast with
@AitkenAdvisors
is well worth your time. Especially if you want some perspective on Taiwan’s election
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Latest revelations in the Greensill saga are quite staggering.
Credit Suisse lent the co $140m to start a captive insurer.
Credit Suisse financed Greensill’s plan to set up insurance firm
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My book is published on Nov 24, & the Kindle version will be just 1.99 for 1 day only. I am really excited, as you can see from this video of me opening the author copies box. Please note 24 Nov in the diary, buy the book and please leave a rating. Thx.
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Podcast episode
#15
with Carson Block
@muddywatersre
has 1 fewer listens than episode
#1
with John Armitage and
@brenthoberman
. Quite fun watching the gap close.
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The You Tube Channel also has free training videos, on Accounting Red Flags, Valuation 101 tuition and a variety of investing tips. Don't forget to subscribe!
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FT reports that Terry Smith took home £30m last year. Unfortunately, they got this totally wrong. Why? Well they failed to watch my video about related party transactions. And I even used Fundsmith as an example. Read on for more......
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Everyone should listen to Russell Napier's views about the economic future. I spent time with him last week. His is a radical view and of course it may not be right, but I find it quite persuasive. Investors should certainly be aware of his prognosis.
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Hoping to make this YouTube channel look a bit more professional. Doubt
@RealVision
or
@zer0estv
will be getting worried. But the medium is fascinating and I want to learn these skills, as it’s a really effective way of communicating. Advice appreciated. DM me.
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Kiril Sokoloff: ‘There will have to be massive debt relief’
This is an epic interview. My favourite column interviews my fave columnist.
@WhatILearnedTW
was my
#1
read when I was in hedge funds. Wish they would publish more free articles.
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Bill Ackman reveals short position against Hong Kong dollar via
@FT
This is a classic example of style drift.
The HK peg defeated Julian Robertson, George Soros and
@Jkylebass
.
@BillAckman
should stick to stocks.
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Bailie Gifford’s Anderson is not afraid to speak out and criticise the competition. And he has done an amazing job. Interesting that he has sold most of $TSLA Tesla and Facebook $FB. Taking note
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I have never made my life savings double in a day. I am clearly incompetent at this investing game.
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Look what just arrived! Looking forward to reading it. Quite intimidating at 744 pages. Wish it had arrived before the Easter break. Well done
@BRK_Student
! Must have taken you years.
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Valuation of growth relative to value now above 1999 levels
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Great piece by the uber smart
@MarcRuby
on Jamie Dimon. A newsletter not to be missed by bank analysts. Or anyone.
1
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39
I don’t normally post at the weekend but a lot of folk listen to podcasts today at the gym or when out for a run. And they shouldn’t miss my guest James Aitken
@AitkenAdvisors
.
Extraordinary conversation. A pro investor just texted me to say thanks!
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Top 20 bars in the world. London well represented. American Bar in the Savoy superior to the Connaught in my view. Good crisps. Important in a bar I think.
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I no longer worry that I might be late for work. A lot to be said for enjoying the journey. On nice mornings like today, I take the scenic route. Lucky. Should have worked this out earlier in my career. Just shows you never stop learning.
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BBC Today programme
@BBCR4Today
is to lose its own business coverage with the brilliant
@dominicoc
under the reorganisation announced today.
This is a disaster for the programme and the BBC. If R4 is not going to hold the Governor of the Bank of England to account, who will?
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In the lounge at Heathrow en route to Omaha for my first Berkshire AGM. Tips welcome.
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If you are an accounting geek like me, you MUT listen to this podcast with
@TheStalwart
and
@tracyalloway
talking to
@mjmauboussin
Just brilliant. And if you are not into accounting you should listen anyway. Really enjoyable. Mauboussin oozes wisdom.
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We are launching a new free membership site. Our library was filling up (1500 articles!) and hard to navigate. Our new site has a better library (with some curation), a book club, stock ideas, fund letters, and much more. Ready now, sneak previews coming. Did I mention it's free?
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Our Forensic Accounting Course for analysts and PMs (equity and credit) at large institutional investors has been incredibly popular. I also train regulators, bankers and private equity. More at
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Reed Hastings: ‘Netflix is still in challenger status’ via
@FT
Lunch with the FT is a must not miss. But this one is really special. Hastings comes across as smart and likeable. But the surprise was the Netflix corporate culture. Sounds odd to me.
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The Hut Group (THG LN) has been in the news recently - its shares have collapsed. Our latest YouTube video looks at how aggressively a CFO can present an earnings number - how to turn a £573m loss into £151m of "adjusted EBITDA".
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Reading. Not sure where to start. Sandy Nairn is smart. Russell Napier recommended the Iceland book. And Edward Ryan’s book sounds like my cup of tea - keep it simple. All from my publisher thanks
@harrimanhouse
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New blog, summarising what we learned about Greensill & some new info. Not 1 of the 10 largest exposures in the main Credit Suisse fund looks to have been an arms' length transaction. Some new revelations & a recap - truth is indeed stranger than fiction.
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Goldman and Credit Suisse on the front page of the FT today. CS list the plot so a clear out is sensible. Chair should pay back his 4.7m for 2020. Goldman manipulation of Deliveroo price and side deals not in prospectus - naughty. These banks need to be reined in.
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Watchdog suspects EY knew it issued ‘factually inaccurate’ Wirecard audit. This story runs and runs. Doesn’t look good for EY.
Accused former EY partner is now HEAD of ACCOUNTING at Deutsche Bank. Its accounts not exactly Tide clean..
@MarcRuby
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Best investment book I read in 2023 was What I Learned about Investing from Darwin by Pulak Prasad.
Here are a few of the others I read this year. Totally random from a couple of shelves in my office and the podcast pile.
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Turns out this WFH thing can be quite tricky. Home alone on a Friday afternoon. Hard to resist a Magnum in the back garden. There is a half bottle of rose in the fridge, but I am doing a presentation to 100 potential clients at 5pm. What to do?
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New podcast episode. Carson Block of
@muddywatersre
needs no introduction.
To my surprise & delight, Carson reveals some of his secrets & discusses how he identifies frauds. If you have an interest in short selling or even in long-only, don't miss this.
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Latest video in our valuation series is on Free Cash Flow yield, the ultimate valuation multiple. We prefer yield to multiple, but there is no difference. We prefer yield to EV over yield to equity as it takes account of the capital structure.
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Berkshire AGM is just amazing. These two old men are just brilliant. So sharp, so quick, it’s just amazing and a joy to watch.Not sure I would tune in for Greg and Ajit. Is it possible that the transition is under-estimated?
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A book a day continues…I read a lot! This is a really fun book as it’s a study of business failures. We tend to study successes but you can probably learn more from failures. Well written and really enjoyable.
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First time at the $BRK AGM. Huge. Great atmosphere. Glad I came.
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I have finally completed the content for my Analyst Academy course - students take 12 months to complete 5 modules, covering everything you need to be a competent investor in equities:
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Really exciting to see people ordering my book, out 24th November. The Kindle will be 1.99 for one day only so you value investors, don't wait for the Christmas stocking! Amazing to see my book alongside Terry Smith's & Jack Schwager's (both on my list)
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In love with $BABA? Maybe you should listen to my interview with
@TheStalwart
and
@tracyalloway
on the Odd Lots podcast. I explain why understanding what's really going on with these companies is so tricky.
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Don’t know why I even hesitated. A half bottle. And it’s rose. Barely even alcoholic. And you present better when you are relaxed. Don’t you?
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This month I am joined by 2 investing giants.
Russell Napier, author and financial historian
Jeremy Hosking, investor and co-author of cult book Capital Account
We discuss the Capital Cycle in an era of Financial Repression. Bonus insert at end.
2
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Couldn’t meet a nicer, more charming, more self-effacing man than
@MarioGabelli
. He is 79 years old, but you would never know it. Quite amazing. He could remember the nr of shares in issue of the $800m mkt cap company he visited last week and of Berkshire Hathaway which…1/3
Over an hour with investing legend Mario Gabelli - out now on
@RealVision
Hosted by the excellent
@steveclapham
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Early days for my podcast and still trying to get the hang of the data. Not exactly intuitive. But now crossed 10k downloads on 2 platforms. Thanks to you all. A decent start. Not sure why London is 5x New York. Come on my friends across the Pond. It’s really quite good.
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Just going live with a course on how to be an analyst for 100 students at London Business School. Should be good fun. Hope they enjoy
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Great piece of analysis
ValueAct's original thesis for $MSFT. $1.6 Bn invested in 2013 at $28.29, with a pretty simple thesis. Note how negatively the company was perceived at the time - the best investments of the next 10 years will almost certainly not be the companies that are most admired today.
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790
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Clip from this month’s podcast with
@WilliamGreen72
, author of Richer Wiser Happier. He interviewed 40 of the world’s best investors and shares their wisdom. Book is a bestseller. So is the podcast. More downloads in week 1 than any of past 22.
2
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Chris Hohn Is a Hedge Fund Manager Like No Other | Institutional Investor. Good story on one of the world’s best investors who wears a swatch and takes the tube to work. Yes he is a billionaire.
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Jim Chanos: ‘We are in the golden age of fraud’ via
@FT
Always a great read, Lunch with the FT. This one is special. Chanos concludes “Trouble’s coming. I don’t know when, but it’s coming”.
2
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I am now in the education business and I am keen to help, especially if you are a young investor looking to get into the industry. I regularly speak to university programs and finance societies (I don't charge) so get in touch via DM or info
@behindthebalancesheet
.com
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A History Lesson
The Library of Mistakes
@EdinburghLoM
was established by my friend Russell Napier in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis to promote the study of the history of financial markets, and to “improve financial understanding one mistake at a time”. (1/11)
2
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28
Brilliant thread on UK election. Even has journos from competing papers having sensible discussion. If only politicians could do this.
2
15
23
Podcast race:
Carson Block
#15
James Aitken
#29
Guy Spier
#25
@AitkenAdvisors
has just overtaken
@GSpier
who is closing in on
@muddywatersre
.
Just 4 downloads separate these 3! Amazing!
3
2
26
Terry Smith’s letter to investors is as sensible as ever. I had assumed that his portfolio would underperform for a while. Yet the FCF yield has moved from 2.7% to 3.6% in 6 months which is clearly supportive. Worth a few minutes of your time.
0
1
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Looking forward to reading my advance copy of Russell’s new book. Will no doubt bring back memories. I was on the sellside then, and covered Inchcape, highest Asian exposure in the FTSE100. Will post my thoughts in a couple of weeks.
0
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John Armitage of Egerton Capital is one of the world’s most successful hedge fund managers with an outstanding 30 year track record. His long only fund has been amazing. This podcast is worth an hour of anyone’s time.
2
4
32
Experimental advert in the London Evening Standard. Not sure I like the photo ir it’s prominence but the ad agency presumably knows best.
Let’s see if it turns into sales. For my Twitter friends, there is a coupon for money off.
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2
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Just wanted to say thank you to everyone who has bought my book and a massive shout out to those who then gave it a review. Almost at 100. Come on, if you haven’t already, please rate it on Amazon. That 1 star though...I suspect it’s my wife.
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Female-managed US funds outperform all-male rivals.
Fascinating. Evidence that women have better temperament for investing. Yet woefully under-represented in the industry. Only 5% of my school students are female. I would love to improve this. Any ideas?
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In the classroom but a student for a change. At Russell Napier’s Practical History of Financial Markets course
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1
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if you want to read the background to Greensill, you could start with the blog
@MarcRuby
and I wrote about the business - all the clever stuff is his. Check it out at
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This is such a fantastic story.
A great lady. We should be celebrating her life and her leadership.
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My book, The Smart Money Method, was published in November 2020 and went straight to nr 1 in the investing category on Amazon. It had over 100 positive reviews in the first 3 months with a 4.5* rating. Learn more at
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I really enjoyed recording this podcast with
@ChrisBloomstran
. I could happily have gone on for another hour. So much wisdom here. We didn’t even get on to $BRK. Hard to pick out my favourite nugget. Worth an hour of your time.
5
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25
@GreatPaulSmith
@realvision
@Benshooter
Thank you
@ttmygh
for arranging to have me on. Good fun and lots of engagement!
0
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This young man deserves your support - hosting an investment podcast at age 17. Here is the backstory, but make sure you listen to one of his podcasts and leave a nice review on your favourite pod software.
Interview with
@steveclapham
is out!
We talk accounting shenanigans, finding opportunity, forensic accounting and more!
YouTube -
iTunes/Apple Podcasts-
Spotify-
Google Podcasts-
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Surprised the Redditors haven’t cottoned in to this one yet. History does repeat and the is Woodford by another name. Over reliance on illiquid holdings will be Ark’s downfall unless they gate. Not even sure they can.
3
1
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Hearing from Russell Napier this morning.
1) an early start
2) just like school. I have been moved to the front.
Can’t wait to hear this. Also check out my podcast with Russell
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The monthly newsletter has a book of the month, notable articles, and my favourite podcast. Plus a link to my own blog and the occasional special offer. No spam, if we email 3x in a month, there must be something special to say.
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Last investment related book I read. Brilliant exposition of why its better to be an early generalist like Roger Federer than an early specialist like Tiger Woods. Highly relevant to the field of investment where generalist PMs rely on specialist analysts. Reminiscent of Tetlock.
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Auditor ‘failed to check Patisserie Valerie cash levels’ This was a fraud and the auditor could not spot the undisclosed loans but it did not ask why stocks were so high or why no interest on the cash. Clear failings in my view. Thx
@sabahmeddings
2
6
22
Podcast Episode 2
Roden on analysts vs PMs:
Analysts want binary answers. The skill of a great PM is taking on uncertainty and risk. It’s much easier to interview analysts. With a PM, it’s an attitude, how they think about the world.
0
3
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What am I missing? Everyone wants to go back to a normal life. But removing the requirement for face masks seems bizarre to me. Hardly an imposition on public transport or shopping. Will we no longer have to wear seat belts next?
4
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Sheer madness. It will be the first anniversary of the publication of my book on 24 November. It’s been an amazing year and as a thank-you, the book will be on sale. Get the Kindle version on Amazon for just 1.99. Daft,huh? Tell your friends.
0
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Last video on Accounting Red Flags. Nr 8: Circular Transactions. Frauds often engage in circular transactions to convert capital transactions into income. It’s a classic tell. Check out the video on
0
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#BerkshireHathaway
paid $7-8bn to buy 10% of largest 4 US airlines, on a p/e of 7-8x. Well managed businesses. But airline industry has changed and they will borrow $10bn each and 2-3yrs from now will people fly as much? So he sold his airlines in April.
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Our flagship Analyst Academy is a unique 12 month programme to become a confident and competent investor. It's more than an online course, with an interactive community and webinars. The testimonials are real - students love this course!
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Our latest blog looks at Amazon's operating cash flow. $AMZN cash generation is boosted by 2 main factors: stock option compensation & negative working capital. We examine both factors and ask if they are sustainable (spoiler: maybe, but not at this rate).
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Revealed: the true extent of America’s food monopolies, and who pays the price | Food & drink industry | The Guardian. Fascinating article with really cool interactive graphics. Worth reading just for that. Do you know who has over 40% of the tuna market?
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