Sinem Adar (@sinemadar.bsky.social)
@sinemadar
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Associate @SWPBerlin , Center for Applied Turkey Studies @CATS_Network . Ph.D. @BrownSociology &MSc @LSE_ID .Views personal. RT&like #endorsement . Tweets in EN/TR.
Berlin
Joined January 2011
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Recirculating an older piece, which I think still holds quite well:
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Biden administration is consistent in its message to Turkey: Do not overestimate your strategic importance.
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France's strong opposition to Turkey&the narrative that Ankara is a problem maker has the unintended effect of strengthening Turkey's own narrative of being a counter-hegemonic actor leading an anti-imperialist resistance.
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Melih Bulu türlü saikle görevden alınmış olabilir. Geldiğimiz noktada "arkasından ne gelecek acaba" endişesini bittabii anlıyorum. Ama gelin bugün iktidarı konuşmayalım, aylardır büyük kararlılıkla gerçekleşen direnişe birlikte şapka çıkartalım, direnişi konuşalım.
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Otoriterlesme “yeni” Turkiye’yi tarif etmek icin eksik bir kavram. Olmakta olan mafya hukuku ve organize sucun devletmesi.
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İktidar bir kez daha Yenikapı ruhu yaratmayı becerdi. HDP hariç muhalefet maşallah ağzı kulaklarında Danıştay'ın Ayasofya kararı arkasında yerini aldı. Milliyetçi&dindar
hassasiyetler belli ki yargının siyasi erk tarafından alanen gaspının önüne geçmiş, siyaseti rehin almış.
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"Elitler"in hezimetinden "provokatörler"in gaspına, "teröristlerin" yardakçılığından "cinsel sapkınlar"a uzanan haykırışın esas sebebi bir üniversitenin öğrencisiyle hocasıyla tek seslileştirilmeye direnmeye devam etmesi akademik özgürlüğe sahip çıkmasıdır.
#Bo
ğaziciDireniyor
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I find it really hard to understand why Greece obstructs the mediation efforts, first of Germany (by signing a maritime agreement with Egypt)&now of NATO (by denying that it agreed to enter NATO meditated technical talks).
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Son 3 gunde 400'ye yakin
#HDP
'li sandik gorevlisi gözaltına alindi.
#CHP
'ye Kurt il ve ilcelerinde secimin güvenliği icin ekstra is dusuyor.
@kilicdarogluk
@vekilince
#24Haziran2018
#24Haziran2018Secim
#24haziransecimleri
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The possibility of social distancing is a privilege. That is not to be forgotten. Think of many refugees in overcrowded camps, stuck between borders and of those in war zones.
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🧵on Turkey's so-called balancing act&the future of Turkish democracy:
1) Turkey is trying to balance its costs&benefits. It tries not to antagonise Russia; while at the same time, acts pretty much in line with NATO.
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"Kazanacak aday" tartışmalarına, başından beri mesafeyle yaklaştım. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu'nun, birbirine benzer/benzemez partiler arasında etkileşim yaratma çabalarını, toplumsal kutuplaşmaya ket vurma iddiasını takdirle karşıladım. Ancak tarifi zor bir öfke ve şaşkınlık içindeyim
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I am happy to announce that I have started working, as of last week, as a Research Associate at Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik's Center for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS).
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Our project that visualizes the depth&extent of Turkish hard&soft power is now online. You can access this first collaborative project of the Center for Applied
#TurkeyStudies
(CATS) at the
@CATS_Network
website.
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Gunluk vaka sayisinin artmis olmasi sebebi ile alinmis sokaga cikma kararinin vatandaslardan gelen tepkiler uzerine cumhurbaskanin takdiri ile iptal etmek ve bunun bir tweet ile duyurulmasi Turkiye'deki kurumsal tahribatin en net gostergesi degilse nedir?
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Turkish government’s war against Osman Kavala is Kafkaesque. Another indictment asking for life imprisonment. What exactly drives this strong urge for revenge is the mystery.
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I understand why the EU might choose to prioritise foreign policy&migration diplomacy over rule of law issues. Still, this is not a sustainable approach for various reasons. 1) It blows life - even if temporarily - to TR's ruling alliance&strengthens authoritarianism,
With
@eucopresident
Michel, we spoke to President Erdoğan.
We underlined the importance of sustained de-escalation and of further strengthening confidence building to allow for a more positive EU-Turkey agenda.
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Symbolism overflow: The first prayers at the Hagia Sophia will be held on July 24, at the anniversary of the signing of the Lausanne Treaty.
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It is quite amazing that the UAE role in Libya occupies a marginal space in the discussion at least within Europe. The focus is overwhelmingly on Turkey&Russia.
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Looking at the debates in
#Turkey
, some thoughts about the political situation ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections:
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.
@ilketoygur
and I argue in this piece that the
#EastMed
crisis reflects 2 overlapping developments: i) TR's increasingly assertive posturing in the international arena, and ii) intense geopolitical competition btw TR, and UAE&Egypt.
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Since the late 2020, early elections have become Turkey’s Godot. Everyone is waiting for it but it has not yet arrived. I am a bit hesitant about its arrival under the current system&more concerned about the possibility of a postponed election.
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The acquittal of Gezi defendants is not necessarily a victory for civil society. It is the outcome of a political conflict that drives arbitrariness. The question is: why now?
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Bu kadar umursamaz, bu kadar güç sever ve bir o kadar da saygısız davranarak en büyük zararı toplumsal muhalefete verdiğinizin farkında mısınız sayın .
@kilicdarogluk
?
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It is clear that costs to Turkey’s ruling elites of leaving office are much higher than economic, social&political costs incurred on the country by their actions.
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Insanlar issiz, yoksul, yoksun ve yorgun. Pandemi almış basını gitmiş. Ulkeyi yönetenlerin en büyük derdi gercekten HDP'yi kapatmak mi?
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Kaftancioglu'na verilen hapis cezasının onaylanmasını bugun TR'de Erdogan ile ulusalcilar arasında varilmiş olan uzlaşmanın muhalefeti bölme stratejisi olarak okumak gerek. Bu stratejinin iki ayağı var.
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+1
Orta sınıf bir Anadolu ailesinin çocuğuyum. Mahalledeki devlet ilkokulu, Anadolu Lisesi&Boğaziçi Üniversitesi'nde aldığım eğitim sayesinde burslu olarak Ingiltere'de master, Amerika'da doktora yaptım.
SORU: Eğitim sisteminin bugünkü halinde kaç öğrencinin ayni fırsatı var?
Dunden beri ayni seyi dusunuyorum. Tek maasli bir memur ailesinin cocugu olarak Bilecik’ten Bogazici’ne oradan tek kurus odemeden Virginia Univ’e ve Yale’a gidebilmemi saglayan devlet okullarini bitirmis, egitimi ozellestirmeye teslim etmis olanlar bize “elitist” diyor utanmadan.
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İktidar hakkında zihinleri (ya da zihnimi) meşgul eden "kaybederse gider mi" sorusunun, ana muhalefet partisi için de sorulması gereken bir soru olduğunun idrakına varmanın öfkesi sanırım.
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Felaket evet. Ama afeti felâket yapan yolsuzluk, plansızlık, partizanlık, bilim karşıtlığı ve kendi istikbalinin ötesinde bir siyaset ve toplum tahayyülü olmayan kötücül zihniyettir. Ezcümle, böylesi büyük bir afetin felakete dönmesi, bir yönetimsizlik ve zihniyet meseledir.
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Oruc Reis' come back demonstrates that Ankara does not understand (or care) that the window of opportunity to get itself a seat at the negotiating table is narrowing down.
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Four issues are problematic about how Ankara is dealing with the corona crisis: 1) lack of transparency, 2) shifting responsibility to citizens, 3) exclusion of different societal sectors from decision-making processes, and 4) silencing of criticism.
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Cycle of life begins with birth, ends with death. In the case of our son Luca the order was reverse. We are deeply sorry for the life that he cannot have; but immensely grateful for his rather short touch on our life.
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Değişime liderlik etme iddiasıyla çıkılan yolda, değiştirilmek istenen gibi davranmak en hafif tabiriyle trajikomik. KK'nin "köyde para harcayacak yeri olmayanlar" tanımlamasının, iktidarın "boğaza karşı şampanya içenler" vurgusundan ne farkı var?
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With all due respect, we can say many things about the Istanbul re-run but “democracy won” is not one of them. Here is why.
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Ankara icine girmis oldugu cok cepheli savaş(lar)ın ve kendi iradesi ile yaratmış oldugu diplomatik krizlerin ekonomik ve siyasi maliyetinin altından nasil kalkmayı planlıyor? Vatandaş olarak bilmek hakkimiz.
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I just watched the AKP's video calling out to the youth. Perhaps the young generations deserve a vision for the future rather than a demand to sacrifice themselves for a cause that no-one exactly knows what it is&brings.
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The promise of the Turkish presidential system was max. efficiency. Inadequate, partisan&exclusionary response to the earthquake shows that the system has severely failed to deliver the promise at the expense of citizens' well-being.
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Turkish elections are free until the ruling party decides the elected is not fit to govern and appoints instead its own candidate, not selected by the voters.
#van
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5 years ago today, for the first time since 2002, AKP lost its parliamentary majority due to the HDP's unprecedented passing of the 10% electoral threshold. Lacking the votes for a single-party government, the AKP went into a de facto alliance with the MHP.
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Hrant Dink Vakfina gönderilen olum tehditleri, Turkiye'nin George Floyd vakasidir. Bir eksiği bir fazlası yok.
27-28 Mayıs’ta Hrant Dink Vakfı’na email ile ölüm tehdidi ulaştığını kamuoyuyla paylaşıyoruz. Son dönemde yükseltilen nefret dili ve oluşturulan iklimin ciddiyetini vurgulamak, yetkililere sorumluluklarını hatırlatmak için bu duyuruyu yapmanın görevimiz olduğu kanaatindeyiz.
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Sorumluluğun kollektif olduğunu teslim etmekle beraber, adaylık gibi zor bir işi sırtlanma iddiası gösteren kişinin, seçim yenilgisindeki sorumluluğu üstlenmek adına da ilk adımı atması hem teamül hem de etik gereği makul olan değil mi?
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The irony is that Ankara's ways of gaining recognition&support for the post-2014 phase of Turkey's forever war against the PKK come at the major cost of losing international legitimacy&creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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The tragic end of the AKP’s 20 years long construction empire.
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🧵about Erdogan's new cabinet:
1) The make-up of Erdogan’s new cabinet reflects a combination of tactical and strategic motivations. Let’s start with the latter. Erdogan seems to have sidelined his intra-regime contenders such as Soylu.
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A 🧵on possible political repercussions of the earthquake in
#Turkey
:
1) The emerging consensus is that the earthquake further narrowed down an already limited manoeuvring space of the ruling elites. What happens with the elections is in everyone's mind.
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3 objectives drive TR's active involvement in
#Libya
1) territorial, and relatedly, energy claims in the EastMed;2) rivalry with the UAE for intra-Sunni hegemony;3) economic incentives in the form of pre-war debts to Turkish construction companies. None of these is short-term.
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Some thoughts triggered by the discussion about Turkey's blockage of Finland&Sweden's NATO accession:
1) Reliability of Turkey lies at the center of the debate. There are three separate yet related aspects.
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Turkish Red Crescent selling tents in the aftermath of the earthquake: transactionalism at the expense of public good as greedy profit-making and co-opting civil society all at once.
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Having Turkish roots, I always thought that coming to terms with past atrocities is necessary&sufficient to build a democratic&peaceful society. Watching the public reactions in Germany to Oct 7&its aftermath makes me realise that it is only the first step.
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The resolution of the dispute between Greece&Turkey in the EastMed requires an arbitrator/mediator that would be perceived by both sides as neutral.
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Turkiye'nin
#COVID19
ile mücadelesinde 4 sorun var: 1) seffafliktan uzak kriz yönetimi (orn. vaka yerlerinin aciklanmamasi), 2) sorumluluğun vatandaşa aktarılması (örn. bahis kampanyası, "herkes kendi OHAL'ini yaratsın",
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Stripping Gergerlioglu from his parliamentary seat, indictment to shut down HDP, ousting the Central Bank's governor&withdrawing from Istanbul Convention..All happened within the last 2,5 days. As I noted below at the end of 2020, none is a big surprise though.
If 2020 is an eventful year for Turkish politics, 2021 will not be very different. Its space for manoeuvre increasingly narrow&determined to remain in power, Turkey's ruling alliance is likely to become harsher.
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Our research paper (with Guenter Seufert) entitled "Turkey’s Presidential System after Two and a Half Years:
An Overview of Institutions and Politics" is now available at the link below.
#Turkey
@CATS_Network
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Thinking of the Hagia Sophia decision together with the devts in Libya&EastMed, I think the decision serves two goals as far as Turkish foreign policy is concerned: 1)Provoking Greece&2)helping Ankara's rivalry against the UAE for the leadership of the Muslim world.
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Depreciation of the TRY after President Erdogan's announcement is yet another example of the institutional deterioration in TR. Managing expectations well ahead of the announcement is as important as the discovery itself.
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Bugun Turkiye'nin önündeki en buyuk sosyal ve politik problem kendinden görmediğini yok etmeye duyulan arzunun normalleşmesi ve kurumsallasmis olmasıdır.
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Böylesi büyük bir felakete hazırlıklı olmak mümkündür.
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Gracefully owning his Alevi identity,
#kilicdaroglu
calls Turkey's youth voting for the 1st time to rise above identity politics so that together "we can all become dignified citizens of a strong republic".
Saadet Party endorses the video on social media.
Quite historical.
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Mr. Erdogan repeats that Ankara sees itself in Europe, 1 day after Mr. Kalin met with EU officials in Brussels. Given the increasing fragility in EU-TR relations, deeds matter more than words.
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It is difficult to know whether those voting in Turkish elections&in German elections are the same people/group. Half of Turkish origin living in Germany have only Turkish pass, thus, cannot vote in German elections.
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Center for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) has launched its Network website. For more information about our partners&CATS , please see at .
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The devastating earthquake in
#Turkey
&its aftermath is powerful evidence to the high despotic power of the Turkish state, which almost completely lost its infrastructural power with the weakening of institutions and the erosion of separation of powers.
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Erdogan's victory speech last night outside the presidential complex was designed as a spectacle. From post-imperial fantasies to crowds chanting for the execution of Selahattin Demirtas, the spectacle is one of national grandiosity and resentment at the same time.
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Saha calismasini 2017/18 doneminde Berlin'de yapmış oldugum Almanya'daki Turkiyeli göçmenlerin ve cocuklarinin siyasi egilimlerine dair çalısmam hakkında
@deger_akal
ile konustuk. İlginize...
Almanya’daki Türkiye kökenli seçmenlerin Erdoğan ve AKP’ye desteğinin nedenlerini araştıran
@sinemadar
ile ulaştığı bulguları konuştuk. Hem Almanya hem Türkiye’de hararetli tartışmalara yol açan bu desteğin başlıca üç nedeni var:
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Devletin devlete bagis yapmis olmasini Turkce nasil acikliyoruz?
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Unless this is to muddy the waters within the Nation’s Alliance&CHP, I do not see how Ogan can be a kingmaker. For one, unclear whether he can mobilize his voters to vote as a bloc for one or the other candidate.
NEW: Turkey’s third presidential candidate Sinan Ogan tells
@Reuters
in interview he could only support Kilicdaroglu in runoff if no concessions are made to HDP. He says fight against terrorism, repatriating refugees are his “red lines” for backing Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu.
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4k ile Turkiye ozeti: kayyumlar, kanun hukmunde kararnameler, kraldan cok kralcilar ve katiller.
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Thread:
1) What has been happening at Bogazici, both the appointment of a trustee as the rector and the subsequent suppression and criminalization of dissent, reflect three intertwined developments:
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In another life, I studied economics but that was long time ago. Hence, I cannot claim to undestand the specific technicalities that lie behind policy. What I am almost certain about is that Ankara is determined to erode the middle class.
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It seems to me that the main orientation of Turkey's ruling elite today is less the popular vote and more the support of narrow interest groups. Both an outcome and perpetual trigger of power fragmentation.
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I wrote about Ankara's response to the war in Gaza. Here is the link for those who might be interested:
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Milli Dayanışma Kampanyası'nın 3 amacı var: 1) Istanbul ve Ankara Büyükşehir belediyelerini ile rekabet, 2) krizle mücadelenin sorumluluğunu vatandaşın sırtına yüklemek, 3) ayni 15 Temmuz'da olduğu gibi "yerli ve milli" vatandaşı mobilize ederek meşruiyet devşirmeye calışmak.
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According to a presidential decree issued last night (Friday), 2 new faculties (Law&Communication) will be established at
#BogaziciUniversity
. If the existing faculties do not yield to power, bring in your own loyal subjects.
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There is allegedly strong suppression over votes in the Southeast and Eastern cities and towns. Observers are reported not to be let in rooms where votes are casted, there is also reporting of physical violence.
#TurkeyElections
#TurkeyElections2018
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Somehow I missed this long
@guardian
read about Turkish TV series abroad& relatedly, the cultural aspect of the Saudi (&UAE) versus Turkey (&Qatar) rivalry:
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"Sosyal mesafe" kurabilme imkanına sahip olmanın bir ayrıcalık olduğunu akılda tutmak gerek. Kalabalık mülteci kamplarını, iki sınır arasında kalmış mültecileri ve savaş bölgelerindeki insanları düşünün. Onlar bu imkandan mahrumlar.
The possibility of social distancing is a privilege. That is not to be forgotten. Think of many refugees in overcrowded camps, stuck between borders and of those in war zones.
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For those who might be interested, we talked about the recent shifts in Turkish foreign policy. Thanks
@TurkeyBookTalk
and
@WJ_Armstrong
for the invitation.
Episode
#122
– Sinem Adar (
@SinemAdar
) of
@SWPBerlin
on the militarisation of Turkey's foreign policy
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I was asked by the Berkley Forum for a contribution about the
#HagiaSophia
. By now, you are probably already tired of reading about it but, still, here are some reflections for those who are interested:
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Bile isteye, göz göre göre bir ülkeyi freni tutmayan arabanın içinde uçuruma sürüklemek ne zamanda beri vatanseverlik? Tüm bunların tam olarak nesi "yerli ve milli"?
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Otoriterlesme Gezi ile başlamadı, Gezi ile toplumun geniş kesimleri nezdinde gorunur oldu.
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I think Turkey's influence over Hamas is exaggerated. If anything, rapidly unfolding events since October 7 show that Turkey has marginal leverage on (state and non-state) actors in this conflict.
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Re-arrest of Kavala on July 15 charges the same day that he was acquitted from the Gezi trial: either there is a horrendous conflict within the judiciary or this is a cheap tactic to go around the ECHR ruling&keep him hostage without violating international commitments.Or both.
Stop all the clocks. Delete all previous news stories. Istanbul Public prosecutor re-arrests
#Kavala
hours after he was acquitted following over two years of pretrial detention.
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Short announcement: Due to health issues, I will for a while be mostly inactive on this site.
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13) I guess the tale of Turkey in this war will also be the litmus test for the relationship between geography, geopolitics&democratization (or authoritarianism) in a new world to appear.
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Almanya seçimlerinin Türkiye'yle ilişkiler üzerine muhtemel etkileri üzerine partilerin seçim programlarını karşılaştırmak suretiyle sesli düşündüm. İlginize 👇
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Akademik tartismalarin da siyasi tartismaların da "Ya benimsin ya kara toprağın" mantigiyla yapilmadigi, hem dinlemeyi hem de duymayı becerebildiğimiz günleri görmeyi dilerim.
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Here are some better organised thoughts about the recent row btw TR&FR over Islam.
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It is incredible to watch how a person humiliates himself by refusing to accept defeat. Equally impressive to see the strong determination in media, public institutions&citizens to guard the democratic process by honouring each and every vote.
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Suleyman Soylu is not like any other MP. His political career that started in the True Path Party in 1987, his closeness to figures like Mehmet Agar&Tansu Ciller, and his rapid rise within the AKP since 2015 tells tons about the transformation of the AKP&that of the state.
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I am really curious to see how the international media and pundits would portray Macron’s grand appearance today in Beirut. I saw today another “strong man” trying to expand his country’s sphere of influence by opportunistically takiny advantage of the moment.
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A short personal note, which I usually don't like sharing here but this one is rather special so cannot stop myself. Pls excuse the self-indulgence! I had my first Podium-Diskussion in German yesterday. Of course made many mistakes but it flew much better than I thought. Happy!
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S400, Hagia Sophia&Istanbul Convention:They are symptoms of Turkey's departure from the Western institutional architecture that it has been a part of for decades. Whether the departure is part of a grand strategy or an outcome of Ankara's increasing isolation is open question.
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Turkish foreign policy is a series of tactics without a well-thought strategy. Tactics help postpone problems but do not solve them. This has been the situation in Idlib. We are witnessing what has been inevitable given Turkey's maximalist position&poor assessment of Russia.
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Birincisi HDP'yi yalnizlastirmak, ikincisi de CHP icinde Kaftancioglu gibi, Tunc Soyer gibi sol tandasli aktörleri sessizlestirmek.
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12 yaşında bir çocuk öldü. Yer yerinden oynamadı.
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3) Quite the opposite that its efforts to act as a mediator btw Ukraine&Russia seem to be welcomed in the Western capitals. Not because of Turkey's reliability as an ally per se but because of the attempts to keep the diplomatic channels with Russia open.
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Bu hafta herkese bol sabır, metanet ve umut dilerim.
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"derin devlet" i ne kadar derinde aramamız gerekiyor?
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