Shylock Holmes
@shylockh
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One pound of inference, no more, no less. No humbug, no cant, but only inference. This task done, and he would go free.
Joined February 2015
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The Fourth Wall of Psychology, which you break at your peril, is the assumption that the "you" of today is the same as the "you" of yesterday and tomorrow.
New Post:
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The funniest conceit of "House, MD" is that, in the US medical system, if your problem is too hard to diagnose, there's a crack team of 150 IQ doctors who'll spend 4 days on your case until they solve it.
As opposed to *shrug* "Have you tried diet, exercise and sleeping more?"
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I unironically believe that Red Bull deserves praise and your customer dollars for spending much of their marketing budget on "paying elite athletes to do cool, risky, aesthetic things, and posting videos of them". It is the modern heir to the JFK moon rationale.
Red Bull sets a new world record by attempting to jump off a mountain into a moving plane
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El Salvador is a legal philosophy hypothetical come to life.
"Okay, but what if all the guilty people... tattooed their faces. And literally nobody else did. And there's like 100,000 of them. Would you still really need trials for all of them?"
"Yes, because, um, er..."
The American right should be ashamed of their admiration of
@nayibbukele
, writes
@plynch1966
.
The fact that he has ended El Salvador's violent crime epidemic does not justify his betrayal of liberal ideals and principles.
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I am increasingly convinced that one of the worst societal choices the west made was deciding that housing should be a vehicle for generating investment wealth, rather than something that stays as cheap as possible.
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Evidence Suggesting Voter Fraud in Milwaukee – a thread.
I’ve been looking at the vote counts in Milwaukee, and there’s suspicious patterns in the data that need explaining. Proving fraud is difficult, but a lot of irregularities point in that direction. First, the tl;dr.
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Among the strongest reasons to reflect on the Roman Empire is to marvel at their technology, and rememeber that they were ultimately defeated by barbarians who not only couldn't build what they built, but didn't even leave written records.
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It is saved by Hugh Laurie, who is one of the best actors of his generation, and the fact that it is explicitly modeled on Sherlock Holmes, which is great source material.
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You may think that BAP is being hyperbolic for assuming that the recent articles about him are a pretext to trigger law enforcement investigations. But may I remind you that Ricky Vaughn is sitting in prison for shitposting, and you may not have fully adjusted to this fact.
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"House" is also hilariously anti-Bayesian. The answer is always the sixth thing they explore. Even conditioning on getting odd and weird cases, you'd expect the first diagnosis to be most often right, then the second, etc.
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1. Democrat votes started increasing massively relative to Republicans after Tuesday night counts. This can’t be accounted for by explanations like heavily Democratic wards reporting later. When we look at the changes *within wards*, 96.6% of them favored the Democrats.
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The commitment to due process as a kind of romantic attachment and end in itself, rather than as an engineering hack for somewhat Bayesian justice, is quite jarring. Especially given that this had been tried, for decades, and the result was a homicide rate north of 100 per 100k.
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Vote Pattern Analysis Thread
This article does something very interesting – quantifying how weird the middle of the night updates in Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia were. I want to explain in simple terms what it does, and why it’s so important.
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"But this sets a terrible precedent for other cases".
Okay, but imagine there's no evidence of any desire to apply this standard to anyone other than obvious gangbangers.
"But it's a slippery slope."
So is a homicide rate of 100 per 100k.
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"I'll give you a foot MRI. No, I can't do your back MRI as well, you'll need to see someone else for that."
"Didn't work, huh? Oh well, good luck with that."
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Can you believe the Chinese will cancel your accounts for making the wrong jokes on social media? How humorless and thin-skinned do they have to be?
And now, back to streaming from Ricky Vaughn's jail cell.
Uncle Roger got canceled in China. BOTH Weibo and Bilibili suspended his account.
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The other classic possibility not displayed is
"Your back pain could be from your foot injury, or that pinched nerve in your shoulder, or a vertebrae problem, or something else. I'm just the foot doctor."
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Another useful intuition is "if you don't immediately understand what 'a homicide rate above 100 per 100k' means in practical terms, nor know that this is what El Salvador had, perhaps you aren't a serious authority on the country"
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Elon Musk as the modern Joe McCarthy, thinking the problem was just a few too many commies in the State Department / Twitter payroll, and finding out the problem was much, much larger.
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4.This result is easy to explain by fraud, but is more complicated under other explanations like Democrats mostly voting by mail. Most theories predict all Democrat candidates should benefit equally within a ward, not that more votes come in exactly where they’re needed.
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3. In down ballot races, Democrat increases within each ward were larger where the Democrat candidate was initially behind in the overall race on Tuesday night – i.e. relatively more Democrat votes appeared in races where they were more likely to alter the outcome.
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2. Democrats also improved massively against third party candidates, but Republicans and third party candidates are similar to each other. Since there’s little incentive to manipulate third party counts, the big change is in Democrat votes, not in Republican ones.
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Indeed, the increase in Democrats relative to Republicans is significantly higher when the Democrat is doing worse overall in early counting. Within each ward, late votes break more heavily to Democrat in exactly those races where they are likely to affect the result.
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I am trying, and failing, to imagine a worldview that believes this graph is straightforwardly accurate, and yet the solution is voting for moderate candidates, or indeed any form of voting at all.
This image remains the single best reason to nominate someone not named Trump.
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Seriously,
@plynch1966
, what do you expect the wrongful imprisonment rate to be if you were to lock up everyone with an MS-13 face tattoo? Would you say, 10^-5? 10^-6? Either ES or the US, the answer is the same.
It is hard to overstate how relevant this is to the question.
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Want to identify possible election fraud, but don’t know where to start? Here’s a clean CSV format dataset from the NYT, identifying county-level presidential votes at periodic snapshots since counting began. There’s a lot to possibly analyze here.
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I had definitely noticed at the time that the main Saturday George Floyd protests in June 2020 looked and smelled *enormously* like an attempted color revolution. I just assumed that, at the last minute, the deep state felt it had more to lose than gain from the gamble. But this
There was an attempted coup against Trump in June of 2020 and BORTAC + BOP stopped it after Pompeo found out.
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@sexyMurse
Sir, to gauge what you might have in mind by the phrase "gone wrong", may I inquire what the municipality with the highest homicide rate was that you've lived in, and what that rate was?
I have no interest I doxxing, so feel free to pick a different place with the same rate.
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Ward-level vote counts are from the Milwaukee County Clerk at 7pm Thursday night () and the archived version from the count as it stood on election night ( ).
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This idea came from
@toad_spotted
. I’m considering Presidential, Congress, State Senate and Assembly races. One way to look at the effect is to compare the percentage increase in votes for Republican Candidates vs Democrat candidates within each ward after election night.
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E.g. Suppose the Democrat candidate votes went up 200% from initial count to Thursday night. How much did Republican votes go up? If the distribution of votes before and after is the same, the percentage gains for each group should be similar, regardless of who was ahead.
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Here’s a graph of the histogram. You see an enormously right skewed distribution –tons of large gains for Democrats, very few gains for Republicans. Not only do Democrats very often increase more than Republicans, but when they do, it’s often by a colossal amount.
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So, this proves incontrovertibly that *something* about the count skews crazily towards the Democrats after 2am Wednesday. But it doesn’t prove what it is. Maybe they counted different types of ballots or something, but only starting at 4am.
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Out of the 1217 ward/race combinations with non-missing early votes for both parties, 1037 saw relative increases for the Democrats, 37 saw relative increases for Republicans, and 143 were ties. Excluding the ties, the D “win” fraction here is 96.6%. A remarkable feat!
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This is different from candidate totals in the state changing as different reports come in from other parts of the city. Rather, we’re testing whether the *same ward* should continue to find the same distribution of votes before and after Tuesday night.
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Races swung more towards Dems exactly where the Dems were down on Wednesday early morning. To explain this with mail-in ballots needs a very complicated story. To explain it with fraud needs a very simple story – you commit fraud more where the fraud matters more.
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Instead, the Democrat candidate vote increases relative to the Republican candidate a crazy fraction of the time. The variable is % increase in Democrat votes for that ward (i.e. % change from Tuesday night to Thursday night), minus % increase in Republican vote.
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If the distribution is the same before and after, roughly half the time the Republicans would get unlucky in early votes and later improve their position (regardless of if they ultimately win or lose). Around half the time, Democrats should increase their votes by more.
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So a value above zero means that Democrat totals went up more than Republicans in that ward/race. A value of 500 means that the Democrats went up 500% in excess of the republicans (e.g. D votes grew 600%, R votes grew 100%).
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Depending on how you assign ties, if this were a 50/50 coin (i.e. D and R were equally likely to gain relative to the other), the probability or p-value for this is between 10^-147 and a number Excel just lists as “0”.
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This corresponds to p-values between 10^-73 and 10^-177. The fraction of Democratic “wins” here (520/523), excluding ties, is a ludicrous 99.4%.
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We can be virtually certain that nobody is bothering to manipulate the vote totals for fringe, no-hope write-in candidates. These form a great placebo group – what might you expect the changes to look like for a group where nobody is manipulating the totals?
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However, there’s one thing we *can* test – from which party’s votes is the weirdness coming from? We can answer things by looking at vote changes for other candidates – third party races, write-in candidates etc.
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That’s basically what we find. In Democrats vs Miscellaneous, the picture is even more crazily skewed than before. Democrats improve relative to Misc. in 520 ward/race observations. They tie 89 times, and Misc. improves in relative terms just 3 times. That’s not a typo.
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Notably, they have excellent VC-like ability to fund the right projects. I cannot think of any high profile disasters or deaths that would cause this strategy to backfire.
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I find the possibility of voter fraud entirely plausible, and that belief has nothing to do which party you think is doing it. At a minimum, I feel strongly that this possibility needs to be investigated more seriously than it is, given the evidence above.
/fin
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How big is the effect? There were 8 races where Republicans were ahead on Wednesday morning. By Thursday night, half had flipped to Democrats. By contrast, there were 19 races where the Democrat was ahead, and not a single one flipped Republican.
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Sometimes the Democrat is way up after early counting, so improving the margin doesn’t matter. But if the Democrat is down early on, adding votes is much more important. I’m assuming fraudsters would like to win as many races as possible with the least amount of fraud
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What are we predicting to find? Well, if it’s the Democrat total that’s being inflated, Democrats should also be increasing relative to Miscellaneous. If Republicans are just being counted as normal, then their changes should look similar to the Miscellaneous Group.
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Whatever is changing vote distributions before and after, it’s overwhelmingly impacting Democrats, not Republicans. If you think it’s about in-person vs postal voting, Republicans must be similar to Miscellaneous in this respect. This is possible, but not at all obvious.
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So how do Republicans compare with Miscellaneous? While they’re not exactly the same, they’re far closer to each other than either is to the Democrats. Other than a few outliers (as Misc. has very few votes in total), the distribution is fairly symmetric around zero.
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If so, why do changes in Miscellaneous votes look about the same? The important difference after Tuesday night, whatever you think it is, is coming on the Democrat side.
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This is exactly what we’d predict if votes before look like votes after, which for R vs M, they do. This is also inconsistent with the driver being something Trump did, like telling all his supporters to vote in-person.
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Republicans improve relative to Miscellaneous 179 times, Misc. improves 251 times, and there are 74 ties. The p-value you get depends greatly on how you allocate the ties. Give them to M, and it’s 10^-11. Give them to R, and it’s 0.55, almost exactly chance (253 vs 251).
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Let’s do the same graph, but compare each party with “Miscellaneous”. Because the Misc count is small, I aggregate it together, restricting to cases with at least 5 Misc votes in that ward by 2am Wednesday (otherwise if there’s only 1 vote, the minimum increase is 100%).
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Excluding ties, the R “win” percentage is 41.6%. So under some measures, they look slightly worse, but this is affected by questions of rounding and the small vote totals for M. What’s incontrovertible is that D looks wildly, wildly different from either of them.
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Most people assume that there must be thousands of highly paid people working on this problem right now. I suspect the answer is more like ten, and I personally know about seven of them.
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The fact that vitamin D hasn't been encouraged as a preventative measure for Covid, even if just as a precaution, is a depressing data point towards the proposition that the medical establishment is only geared up towards treatments that generate profits for pharma companies.
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There’s another more important aspect. If Democrat increases are partly fraud, we would expect that increases should be larger *when the fraud is more likely to impact the race*. We have lots of down-ballot races like State Assembly Representatives we can test here.
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It’s not that the races flipped because heavy Democrat wards started reporting in. More votes started coming in for Democrats relative to the ratio for that exact ward the previous night. The votes also skewed more for races that Democrats looked like they might lose.
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Could there be other reasons than fraud why ballots might be different before and after? If the ordering is random and drawn from the same pool, no. But if wards count different types in a different order (votes cast at 9am vs 4pm, in-person vs mail-in), then possibly.
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Extremely disappointing stuff from Garrett in the thread here.
"Voter fraud can't be real, because voter roll data exists and it would show up"
Here is a statistical analysis of patterns consistent with fraud in exactly that data. Please read even just the summary.
What fraction of election deniers know that who precisely voted is a matter of public record?
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This is why the evidence suggests fraud to me, but your mileage may vary. I’ve tried to stick to the facts, as I don’t have any special ability to interpret the numbers above. Whatever is going on is crying out for explanation, and the simple alternatives don’t do it.
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@fwoodbridge
But then we should just replace them with a sign that says "sleep more, go for a walk or a run, and eat whatever diet it is that makes you healthy, which we'll eventually get back to you with a precise answer of what that is. Probably fewer carbs."
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This is surprisingly hard to explain with common explanations for why Democrats pulled ahead overall. E.g. mail-in ballots are counted late, and these are more heavily Democrat. In general, this doesn’t explain why some races later skew Democrat more than others.
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More ballots come in Democratic, they each vote for every Democrat, so all Democrats increase in the same percentage terms. This isn’t what we find. In the data, within a ward, the important races go up more than the unimportant races.
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One postscript that people have asked about - why Milwaukee? Why not analyze everywhere else too? I picked Milwaukee after initial strange reports of ballots being found at 4am. But it took about 48 hours of work and writing to put together just this much.
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@MorlockP
It seems bizarre, but actually makes sense, that the people forgiving and being forgiven were the ones who did the fighting. When you are fully removed from the deadly seriousness of the martial stakes, you feel much more at liberty to shit on opponents with gay abandon.
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One of the most important reasons to read about the history of the late Roman Republic is that one can see periods where, in hindsight, the Republic was in fact already dead, but most people hadn't fully realized it.
AOC says the quiet part out loud: "Oh yeah, Trump is being prosecuted to prevent him from campaigning." Remember: Trump is the threat to democracy.
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The key is that for each voter, voting by mail is common to all races. A single voter can’t vote for some races by mail, and others in person. So if the overall D skew is a mail ballot effect, most versions of this predict that all races should be equally affected.
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A final question to ponder. What should our null hypothesis be? When we say “there’s no evidence of fraud”, we’re claiming “no fraud” as the null hypothesis. To me, the system of vote counting is so broken that this is very difficult to justify.
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A metaphor for the likelihood of voter fraud, for people who insist that it's a conspiracy theory, or there's no evidence of it.
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Consider a simple example where everyone votes straight ticket. More Democrats vote by mail, and these are counted late. This would predict overall Democrat improvement, but it should be the same for all races, regardless of whether the Democrat is ahead or behind.
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One strange quasi-religious aspect of recycling is that when people learn that their recyclables end up in landfill (as most of them know by now), they very rarely actually stop recycling as a result of this knowledge. They're still surprised when I tell them I don't bother.
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In the wake of the FTX collapse, it's important to learn the most underappreciated lesson - the general untrustworthiness of people with hyphenated surnames. Strong presumption of a weak, sackless father and a nasty, ball-busting feminist mother.
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If this sounds confusing, that’s kind of the point. We’re a long way from just Dems voting more by mail. It’s not impossible, and we can’t rule it out. But if it’s about mail-in ballots, there must be some difference *within Dem voters* between mail vs in person.
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At least for doing this kind of analysis, not for the broad voter fraud question. But a similar issue applies, I suspect.
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In related news, America is still world-beating in technology. What you should infer from this, however, is less clear.
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Do you still believe that most voter fraud will be caught in time before it decides the election? Really?
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Imagine if some tiny fraction of the corporate donations that go to race-hustling went to purely aesthetic projects. At the moment, they appear to have the space largely to themselves.
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You need something complicated to explain it. Dem voters vote less for Dem candidates if they know they’re know are going to win anyway, AND this instinct is somehow larger in Dem mail-in voters than Dem in-person voters, AND Dems vote more by mail overall.
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"But I've been very reasonable and measured in everything I've typed."
Ricky Vaughn was convicted in significant part due not just from what he said, but from what other people said in group chats he was in, without even establishing that he read them.
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"No no, what I really meant by the essay was 'These are the lies you must loudly and publicly insist upon, unprompted'."
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The prediction that all races should be equally affected holds for many variations. Does the answer change if every Democrat voter has a 90% chance of voting for each Democrat candidate, if this attitude is the same those who vote in-person vs by mail? No.
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One of the unfortunate parts about Epstein's death is that it shifted the conspiracy theories to the relatively unimportant "did he commit suicide or get killed?" question, and away from the far more interesting question of "how did his blackmail operation work and get financed?"
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The answer also doesn’t change if Democrat voters generally vote less for shoo-in candidates, but vote more in tight races. If holds equally for Democrats who vote by mail vs in person, there should be no difference across races in how much they break towards Dems.
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The related problem was trying to square the circle of "house prices should go up" and "housing should be 'affordable'" by subsidising loans for housing, which just makes the cost problem worse.
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When this was caught *on video* at the time, those of us pointing it out had endless concern trolls asking if we weren't sure that scanning ballots twice wasn't normal practice for extra security, and if the machines had features to prevent these ballots being counted twice.
NEW: Georgia Election Board dumbfounded after finding out that 3,000 ballots were scanned twice in the 2020 election recount in Fulton County.
The board also revealed that 380,761 ballot images from machine count were “not available.”
Q: Does Fulton County know why there are
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The comparison is now between two different races at the same ward. A Democrat voter comes to the ballot box or mailbox, and sees a number of races. For some, like President, it’s going to be a close call. For others, it might be a heavy favorite for the Democrat.
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One of the bizarre emergent aspects of our constitutional order is that all financial crimes on the planet impugn the majestic dignity of the Southern District of New York, based on the legal theory that all money flows through Manhattan at some point.
USA Damian Williams: Earlier this evening, Bahamian authorities arrested Samuel Bankman-Fried at the request of the U.S. Government, based on a sealed indictment filed by the SDNY. We expect to move to unseal the indictment in the morning and will have more to say at that time.
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The voter is a Democrat, so presumably he’s inclined to vote Democrat for both. We can compare within a given ward which of the two races showed bigger improvement for the Democrats in that particular ward after Tuesday night.
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Rotterdam is the perfect example of how the answer to the question "Do you want to visit this town in Europe?" is "did it get bombed flat in World War 2?"
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It is telling when academics obfuscate in ways that presume their audience has never worked with data. To "develop an entirely new model" means adding a race variable (likely already in the dataset) to the regression. It takes minutes at most. They've probably already done it.
@Steve_Sailer
@StoneBiology
@Coastal_Duo
What you're asking for is the authors to develop an entirely new model, using different data based on choices you like more. If you are such a strong believer in your hereditarian priors, you should do this yourself, no one is stopping you.
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A metaphor for the likelihood of voter fraud, for people who insist that it's a conspiracy theory, or there's no evidence of it.
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You can convince middle class boomers to give away their entire city to foreigners, as long as house prices go up in the process. Vancouver is the extreme example, but there are many others.
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You'd need a heart of stone to not laugh at Democrats and journalists' rendition of "The Death of Stalin" , wondering whether it's safe to declare the dear leader dead, or whether they're going to get sent to the gulag for saying this too early, or saying the opposite too late.
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"But this was just some narrow aspect relating to misleading people about elections, a known first amendment carve-out"
Oh look, they're charging Donald Trump under the same section. Apparently it now covers protests on January 6th.
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Have they gotten to the point of rounding up everyone? No, of course not. It's not even clear they want to, or have the capacity to do so. But if you were a high profile target like BAP, you would have to be very naive to not see which way the wind is blowing here.
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Do you recall with clarity what the least measured thing some hothead said 5 years ago in all your group chats?
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Recall, these are the places where election night saw complete banana republic stuff like boarding up windows in Wayne County vote counting centers to stop people who’d been excluded from the room even looking in.
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"Become a nurse", they said. "It's difficult to be replaced by robots", they said.
It's pretty awesome how dancing makes robots less intimidating. Looking forward to seeing more nontrivial Machine Learning on these robots. Credit: Boston Dynamics.
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