Shuli Ren
@shuli_ren
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A yogi wannabe. Bloomberg Opinion columnist @opinion. All views are my own.
Joined August 2013
It is spreading like wildfire. Homebuyers in China are refusing to pay mortgage on properties their distressed developers can’t deliver. This disobedience is something China is not prepared for. My latest for @opinion
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President Xi has elevated the status of SOEs and cracked down on private businesses. Now he is getting more than what he had wished for. Most fresh college graduates want a job with the state sector. My latest for @opinion.
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If someone from a Chinese conglomerate pitches you business ideas, run the other way. My feature piece on why:
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If the fiascoes at WeWork and Greensill were not enough, Klarna should serve as another fine reminder that SoftBank is the unluckiest whale in a crowded venture capital world. My latest for @opinion
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Anyone wanting to know what China will do in the next five years needs to read President Xi Jinping’s latest speech. Here I am reading tea leaves for @opinion
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China’s censor is on overdrive, blocking hundreds of links to videos and articles documenting the Shanghai lockdown. Shanghai is not Xian, or Jilin province. We will not be silenced. My latest for @bopinion.
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China is the wild card. It has a big toolbox to help soften Western sanctions on Russia. But will Xi, who vowed “rock solid” friendship with Putin, come to Russia’s aid? . My latest for @bopinion
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It’s not easy being a landlord during the pandemic, especially in Hong Kong. And, soon, property owners will earn negative carry for the first time since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. My latest for @bopinion
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It’s a clean sweep for President Xi, who stuffed the Communist Party’s top decision body with his allies. He will need them, to execute his untested, vague, theoretical new development model. My latest for @opinion
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Behind your shiny iPhones are migrant workers working 12 hours a day and making peanuts.
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From real estate to stocks to the yuan, assets that make up the bulk of Chinese households’ wealth are being battered ahead of the party congress during which President Xi will advocate for his Party’s right to rule. My latest for @opinion
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Good advice: “There is no rule of law. Avoid China — or be an insider.”.
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Who’s the next Evergrande? . China’s distressed bond watchers look at developers whose bonds are soon due. But how about billions of dollars of loans that offshore banks lend? The bankers now have second thought. My latest for @bopinion
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Even People’s Daily editorial says while Covid containment is important, Chinese New Year needs to feel “festive.” People need to celebrate and see their families. I do not feel festive in Hong Kong. 🇭🇰 . I feel trapped.
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Is China’s Big Tech becoming a sunset industry, too? . Worse than a regulatory crackdown is consumer fatigue. My latest for @bopinion
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China’s industrial policy seems to have a lot of fans. The US’s $280 billion Chips Act is a direct copycat. But Beijing starts to have second thoughts. My latest for @opinion
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Call it taper tantrum, times 10. Emerging markets are reeling from Fed rate hikes + China slowdowns. But Indonesia - which not even a decade ago was singled out as a Fragile Five - is not at all fragile. 🇮🇩 . My latest for @opinion
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Hong Kong has accepted defeat, abandoning its Covid-zero policy after millions of infections and 2+ months of soft lockdown. But HK does not invalidate mainland China’s Covid-zero strategy. My latest with @anjani_trivedi for @bopinion
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China is not a big fan of George Soros, who tried and failed to break the Hong Kong dollar peg, and said President Xi does not understand how markets work. At Davos, he made his most sensational claim yet. My latest for @opinion
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Common Prosperity: China wants to broaden the middle class, but a business slump causes layoffs and hiring freezes. It is now feeling the gravity of trickle-down economics. My latest for @opinion
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For the first time since 2008 financial crisis, U.S. pension funds are fully funded. A war over Taiwan can upend that. My latest for @bopinion
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Why China’s shortened quarantine is meaningless. From Hong Kong, only 3 flights to Chengdu, 2 to Hangzhou. Before Covid, hourly flights between HK and Shanghai. If you miss one, you can take the next!
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Small businesses are hurting from Beijing’s Covid-zero policy. 🛑 . Average sales were at only 30.6% of the pre-pandemic level, while 27% surveyed were operating at a loss and another 19.1% were barely breaking even. My latest for @bopinion
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While the rest of the world is learning to live with Omicron, China seems to still stubbornly hug onto its COVID zero policy, locking down cities and ports. Recently, China is subtly rewriting its narrative. My latest for @bopinion
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In China’s real estate market, a bad acquisition deal, and the savior itself needs to be saved too. So much hidden debt every step along the way that the distressed developer itself does not know how much it owes. My latest for @bopinion
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An inverted yield curve was the single most important barometer of recession risks, till the Fed broke it during its latest QE. My latest for @BW
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JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon cracked a joke about China Communist Party’s longevity. But China is no joke. Its politicians have little sense of humor. Words matter, my latest for @bopinion
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China might ask ride-hailing giant Didi to delist from the US. But at what price? Will $DIDI make its IPO investors whole? Or will it be an ugly divorce? My take for @bopinion
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China and Vietnam, the world’s two largest Communist countries, have much in common. But here is one big difference. One is open for business, the other heads back to Qing Dynasty. My latest for @opinion
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Jack Ma may be blunt, but he is not stupid. Painting, meditating and vacationing on his super yacht are a lot better than hosting visits from the very scary anti-corruption agency. My latest for @opinion
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Argentina defaulted N times and foreigners keep on going back to buy their bonds. Same happening with China’s distressed developers? My latest for @bopinion
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Judging by the latest inflation numbers, developed nations are turning into emerging markets. Meanwhile, Chinese consumers saw only a 1.5% rise in prices last month. What drives the discrepancy? My latest for @bopinion
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China’s college admissions rate soared above 80%. So most teenagers choose to go to college, because universities there are heavily subsidized and do not have the big student loan problem. But are there enough jobs once they graduate? @opinion
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He was a star banker. Under his management, his bank boasted good earnings, prudent loan provisions, and the bank’s stocks became a fund managers’ dealing. So why was he not promoted? My latest for @bopinion
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Day 21! . Hong Kong is like Shangri-la. The entrance keeps on shifting, and even if you know where it is, you still have to scale the snow mountains to reach it. I look forward to breathing fresh air!
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Sell, sell, sell. Good macro news is coming out. China has room to cut rates. M&A financing rooms are eased for developers to offload assets more easily. But the developer bonds keep on falling. Why is that? My latest for @bopinion
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Kelso 2005-2020. From Chicago to Hong Kong. The love of my life. Always so sweet and so friendly.
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Good career advice, from the plenum! 🤣🤣.牢记初心使命，始终谦虚谨慎、不骄不躁、艰苦奋斗，不为任何风险所惧，不为任何干扰所惑，决不在根本性问题上出现颠覆性错误，以咬定青山不放松的执着奋力实现既定目标，以行百里者半九十的清醒不懈推进中华民族伟大复兴。.
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When you enter the labor market matters. A record 10.8 million is graduating into a prolonged recession in China this year. My latest for @bopinion
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Nursing losses, foreign investors have complained China is becoming “uninvestable.” . Truth is, they are just making excuses for poor due diligence and dismal returns. My latest for @bopinion
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Closing shop. Going home to see my family. First time in 3 years. My 2022 conviction view: A China reopening is sooner than most analysts predicted. Fiscal discipline demands it. Social stability too.
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After a record fundraising year, there are worries that private equity’s golden era is over. My latest for @opinion
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A 20% Rebound? Asia Has Been This Cheap Only 3 Times! via @barronsonline $HSCEI $EEM $VWO $AAXJ.
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Jack Ma’s Ant has made a lot of changes since its IPO was pulled. It become boring. So it is surprising that China is looking into Ant again. Could it just be a routine checkup? My latest for @bopinion
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Vietnam’s 7% GDP growth seems like an enviable number, but meager compared to China’s 10+% during its export boom days. What’s holding Vietnam back? My latest for @opinion
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Tech and real estate used to offer the best jobs for college graduates. Those went down the drain. So what’s left for China’s youth? My latest for @bopinion
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The question of China’s “investability” is bubbling up again as US and Hong Kong listed Chinese stocks see their worst selloffs since 2008. My latest for @bopinion
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Private equity firms are supposedly masters of the universe, giving companies survival tips and business ideas. But can they cope with the looming global recession themselves? My latest for @BW
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For decades, financiers in Hong Kong have been China’s biggest cheerleaders and its bridge to the West. Now, they worry if they have viable careers. My latest for @opinion
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🇭🇰 reopening! Has it been 100+ days?! . Back to my favorite wall! 💪
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Hedge funds are no longer hot. Private equity is. One reason: the wealthy want to have a good life. They don’t want to get stressed out by big price swings. My latest for @opinion
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Sometimes, when you try too hard, you lose. The “lie flat” approach to life, which rejects hard work in favour of doing as little as possible to get by, works in the investing world too. My latest for @bopinion
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The list of Chinese companies under US sanctions or export controls keeps on expanding. Sanctions on Russia can be a great excuse for more sanctions on China Inc too. My latest for @bopinion
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Is Hong Kong a casino or great financial center? About 40% listed shares are penny stocks. My first column @Bfly
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China seems eager to move on and find solutions for its distressed companies. A closer look at the bailout deals shows Beijing is just kicking the smelly cans down to … perhaps 2022. My latest for @bopinion
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In both raw numbers and percentages, China is churning out a lot more college graduates than the US. As China bids for technological supremacy, should US be worried? . My latest for @opinion
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Foreign hedge funds that profited from Kaisa’s debt restructuring in 2015 are back. In 2015, they got over 80% recovery rate for the distressed bonds they bought. Can history repeat? My latest for @bopinion
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Shanghai lockdown: Out doing a PCR test is a ritual, and of course one must dress up for it! 😹😹💕💕💕
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China is now in a state of policy paralysis because it does not know how long this trade war will last.
Don't bank on China switching from deleveraging to stimulus, says @shuli_ren via @bopinion.
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26% default rate among China’s high-yield real estate developers? . A few got away unscathed - so far. My latest for @bopinion
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China FX reserves Falls The Most Since May, As #PBoC Sells Dollar To Support #Yuan via @barronsasia $CNY.
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Goldman: Oil Will Trade Range-Bound Between $20 And $40 via @barronsonline $CEO $USO $PTR $SNP.
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How do you not get dragged into secondary sanctions? . If you are deep into the global supply chain. My latest for @bopinion
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All of a sudden, the hawks in China are easing their regulatory crackdown on tech. Why the change of heart? . My latest for @opinion
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You can’t have your cake and eat it too. In recent years, China launched ambitious top agendas that would fundamentally change its economy. Now, its top health policy + top housing policy are in conflict. My latest for @opinion
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Respect for the elders is a cornerstone of Confucian ethics. So what happens if the elderly simply prefer Chinese remedies and refuse to be vaccinated? My latest for @bopinion
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Scary. Snap managed to lose over $500M on meager $400M revenue and it is valued at $20B. via @barronsonline.
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HSBC: Don't just blame China. Import demand from developed markets is anemic! http://t.co/HG59xidqDs.
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Vietnam 🇻🇳 is so similar to China 🇨🇳 on many fronts. Take residential real estate: the practice of pre-sales, households’ craze for real estate, 3. developers’ insatiable fund raising… .My latest for @opinion
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Smartphone fingerprint sensors are hot. Two Chinese Tech Stocks with 25% upside via @barronsasia.
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This is the year of tiger 🐅. But Chinese are acting like domestic cats 🐈, gripped by covid paranoia and dread. My latest for @bopinion
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I find studying Zen Buddhism amidst 🇭🇰 lockdown helpful. Life is all about perspective. Don’t say, I am salt. I will be melted away by water! . Say, I am Ocean!
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Too much focus is on #Evergrande debt. How about supply chain financing? @anjani_trivedi takes a fresh look.
Trouble had been brewing at China Inc. long before Evergrande. Just take a look at the pervasive use of supply chain financing, writes @anjani_trivedi
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Behind closed doors, when and how to reopen the economy must be on top of Beijing’s agenda as the party convenes this weekend. I argue for @opinion the reopening can happen a lot sooner than people think.
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Quiet quitting is a concept alien to Hong Kong’s diligent worker bees. 🇭🇰 . But I argue the conditions are ripe that they abandon the hustle culture for a while. My latest for @opinion
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A company is in distress. The CEO has a broad blueprint to revamp. But for a complete re-branding, he needs the approval of the chairman first. Think of China this way, my latest for @opinion
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China's fiscal deficit target is a meaningless number. Beijing is using off-budget channels to launch stimulus again, just like what it did in 2012 with LGFVs.
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Shanghai started a full lockdown on April fool’s day, finished two months later on Children’s day. Go figure. 🙊.
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Ageism permeates China’s elite politics. Xi, who got on the fast track because of his princeling status, is breaking the retirement age limit rule. He should allow others to do the same, my latest for @opinion
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Troubles in China’s real estate keep on coming. From refusing to pay mortgages to paying back too fast, consumers are tossing out one problem after another. My latest for @opinion
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I 💕 that Vinhomes has a communal ancestor worship burner in front of each apartment building. It is a nice adaptation of tradition! And no fire hazards in hallways! . 💕 🇻🇳
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There seems a disconnect in China's consumption story. People are not feeling rich, but luxury sales remains strong. This column throws out a few explanations.
What would you buy if you could only afford one pair of designer shoes? Even in the luxury segment, the Chinese are practical, writes @shuli_ren
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The View for 21 days! . I can see trees, mountains, ocean, some humans, and industrial production. Not so bad! Make do with what you have! 💪
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Is private equity’s stellar performance too good to be true? . As the global stock market slump forces mutual funds to mark their holdings to market, some are getting vocal in their skepticism of private markets. My latest for @opinion
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Indian folklores speak of oceans of jungles dotted with lotus ponds. I just witnessed this serenity in Sri Lanka. Such a lovely place!
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The closer you are to Beijing, the more pessimistic about China's stocks - the running joke in China's investment community.
As Chinese investors flee stocks, foreign funds are keeping the faith, says @shuli_ren
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“Go to work! Till you test positive! . Don’t be scared. Even romance does not knock on your door. Why do you think you will catch Covid?” 😂😂
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🦠 is forcing me to find the guruji within. Learn to be a hermit! Discipline and self-practice!
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