Dr. Serkan Toto / Kantan Games Inc.
@serkantoto
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CEO of Japan game industry consultancy Advisor for unicorns @playco @AnimocaBrands etc. Ex-慶應義塾大学. 7-lingual. Never financial advice.
Tokyo (since 2004) & Singapore
Joined November 2007
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Nobody talks about it anymore, but Mario Tennis Aces for Nintendo Switch is a very, very good game.
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Random dude in the US running an illegal rom site: 0 vs US$80 billion dollar company with a track record of suing people into oblivion: 1
A ROM site owner decided to fight Nintendo in court with no attorney and lost $2.1 million.
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Square Enix here in Japan just reacted officially, shooting down the rumor:
Following today's M&A rumors, Square Enix stock just went into the lunch break at the Tokyo Stock Exchange at +13.80%.
(It's 11:40am Friday here in Japan.)
And yes, that's a lot for such an already large company on a single day.
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1) Just in: Nintendo president Kimishima tells the Nikkei Switch's online service will be priced at 2-3,000 yen ($17.50 - $26.50) *YEARLY*.
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Nintendo stock just passed the 50,000 yen mark here in Tokyo (Thursday morning).
The last time Nintendo was at this level was in 2008.
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1) The Callisto Protocol's release is canceled in Japan.
Local ratings agency CERO did not like the level of violence in the game, and the developer refuses to comply with their demands.
Many people don't know a LOT of games are censored in Japan.
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It's Tuesday 130pm in Japan now.
Nintendo stock just passed 61,000 yen, the highest price since 2007.
My condolences to the Nintendo bears, doomsayers and short-sellers out there who tried to convince the market for years "the Switch story is exhausted".
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Looks like Mario Kart Tour beta is pretty hardcore with regards to monetization.
Multi-level gacha for drivers, karts and gliders.
Rare drivers have advantages during races.
Stamina system limits races available on an hourly basis.
(Subject to change, this is a beta.)
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What analysts will say when Nintendo:
a) misses the 20 million Switch sales target for this fiscal:
"you see, the thing is too expensive + nobody wants it"
b) hits the target:
"well, they barely made it"
c) exceeds it:
"no wonder, the Xbox and PS4 are so late in the lifecycle"
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By comparison: Nintendo's market capitalization is currently US$61 billion.
BREAKING: Microsoft is nearing a deal to buy troubled video game maker Activision Blizzard at a valuation of $70 billion
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Nintendo is not announcing the heavily rumored Direct, ResetEra is breaking down.
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Tango Gameworks employee Takeo Kido () says it's the studio's last day today.
(It's Friday afternoon in Japan.)
He says in the thread that the actual company behind the studio, Zenimax Asia Inc, is also gone.
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9:45am on Friday in Japan, launch day for Pokemon Sword and Shield.
Japan’s biggest electronics store Yodobashi in Akihabara opened 10 minutes ago.
Here for a channel check.
Here is the first line of people buying the game and some point-of-sale impressions.
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Nintendo stock just ended trading +5.48% after the Monster Hunter announcement.
That's +$2.2 billion (no typo) in market value in one day.
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I've been following ~50 Japanese game stocks for over 10 years now.
Today was the worst day I can remember (Tokyo Stock Exchange just closed).
A selection:
Nintendo -3.96%
Sony -7.31%
Nippon Ichi -17.58%
Koei -5.41%
Capcom -6.68%
Konami -6.76%
Sega -6.74%
Squenix: -5.79%
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"Difficult" means "no" in Japanese.
Bringing Monster Hunter: World to Nintendo Switch is "difficult," says Capcom:
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Article now with info:
- yes, "Fog Gaming" is the "scoop"
- Sega will use arcades in Japan as the technical backbone
- CPUs and GPUs housed in arcade machines are mentioned specifically
- ultra-low latency is touted
- commercial idea is to use arcades outside business hours
According to this news source in Japan (), Sega is working on a new kind of platform they apparently dub "Fog Gaming".
That term is NOT the Japanese equivalent of cloud gaming, but no further infos as of now.
Sega is having a weird day.
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Global employee numbers of game studios:
Konami ~1,900 (Digital Entertainment only)
Koei Tecmo ~2,000
Capcom ~3,200
Square Enix ~5,500
Take-Two ~6,500 (excl. Zynga - which has 2,000+)
Nintendo ~6,600
Activision Blizzard ~10,000
Electronic Arts ~11,000
Ubisoft ~20,300 (really)
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Don't trust Google Translate.
The tweet () in Japanese includes an expression people here sometimes use and that roughly translates to "Let's sleep early, so we are ready for tomorrow".
NO subtext of the tweet suggesting to "prepare for an announcement".
Official Pokemon Project Eeevee Twitter Account Says “Prepare For Tomorrow”
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1) One of my favorite studios, Tokyo-based FromSoftware, is currently rumored to be an M&A candidate for Sony.
Here is a quick run-down of its weird background feat. pigs, right-wing newspapers, Toyota and the metaverse.
And their early valuation... unspeakable.
Buckle up😮
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It's not quite the Sega-branded Xbox for Japan that was rumored last year, but now Sega does say it explores a strategic alliance with Microsoft for their "Supergame" initiative:
It's Monday morning here in Japan, and Sega stock is currently up +5.76%.
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3) He says Nintendo currently "studies" VR + will add VR to Switch once they figure out how users can play for hours without problems. /end
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Stadia looks very ambitious, but how much is the controller, how much is the service, what games do we get, how will ownership work, and how much does it cost to develop, publish and run games on Stadia?
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The Nintendo Switch drought in Japan is so bad that top online gaming media here are reporting which stores get them in stock at which time and quantity in dedicated news articles.
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Capcom stock reached an all-time high today (Friday) in Tokyo.
Make good games and your shares shall rise.
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2) Kimishima says the yearly fees make it easier for Nintendo to support online features such as multiplayer or downloads of classic games.
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So Nintendo just clarified:
1. The 6 million are sell-through (not just shipped/sold to retailers - but sold through to end users).
2. Number refers to the launch weekend only, not the initial week.
Absolutely bonkers, even by Pokemon standards.
The Pokemon Company says
#PokemonSwordandShield
sold 6 million units worldwide since release on Nov 15.
Sales passed 2 million units in Japan alone.
They say these numbers set records for any Switch software so far.
Source: TPC's Japanese PR release.
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People are angry that Redditors coordinated this spike to "get rich quick".
Nobody says anything when institutional investors and banks gang up to do the same on the down-low.
GameStop was halted for trading after shares surged around 69%
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Is there any way to make it clearer this is a publicity stunt by Microsoft?
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Today, Japanese mega publishing house Kadokawa said Tencent acquired a 6.86% stake for US$264 million.
Kadokawa is From Software's parent company and said the capital will be used for producing games (among other things) going forward.
Tencent's biggest bounty in Japan so far.
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Nintendo should stop selling the original Switch model (-> to ruin its entire business)
PS5 might get to 300mn sold (->3x PS4)
Japan might become the 2nd largest market for Xbox (-> domestic market share today 0.1%).
It's been an interesting few weeks in game analyst land.
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1) Pokemon Go, the game that "nobody is playing anymore", is the No. 2 grossing iPhone app in America.
This is ~6 months after launch.
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In a new interview with The Nikkei, Capcom CEO Tsujimoto just served up another Switch teaser.
He says the home + portable console concept works better than expected and that Capcom wants to port games to the Switch that were not available on Nintendo consoles previously.
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Bandai Namco is currently developing several NX titles. Smash Bros is planned to be a launch title. I am not sure about the date - yet ;).
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This will never happen and even if it did, Nintendo would cease being Nintendo the minute such a deal goes through.
Xbox boss Phil Spencer was targeting a Nintendo acquisition in 2020, unredacted emails have revealed.
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At the Biccamera retail store in Yurakucho, Tokyo.
Monster Hunter Rise is sold out, including the special edition.
Very rare to see a game sold out like that.
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Nintendo delays the Mario Kart Tour release on mobile to summer 2019 to "increase the quality of the game".
Previous release window was "by end of March 2019".
スマートフォン向けアプリ『マリオカート ツアー』は、アプリの品質向上および配信後のサービス内容拡充のため、配信予定を2019年夏とさせていただきます。
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This is the confirmed 1st-party pipeline for next fiscal year - BEFORE it even starts this Friday:
- Nintendo Switch Sports
- Mario Strikers
- Fire Emblem Warriors
- Splatoon 3
- Xenoblade Chronicles 3
- Bayonetta 3
- Pokemon S&V
- Advance Wars (likely)
Nintendo will be fine.
Out: producer at third party a while ago complained Nintendo's own pipeline alone for this year is very crowded and he couldn't find space to release his games. So Zelda launch delay announcement yesterday was good news, at least to some, maybe?
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Nintendo still expects 13.5M in sales for the Switch this fiscal - that late in its lifecycle.
(Wii U sold 13.56M in its entire lifecycle.)
The Switch is at 141M now, will sell even next year and is poised to pass the PS2 as the best selling console of all time (155M units).
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"Everybody who wants a Switch already has one"
"The run is over"
"Switch sales have peaked"
"Nobody will buy Let's Go"
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Tokyo Game Show in September 2020 just got canceled as a physical event.
It was inevitable.
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It’s Monday, 3pm here in Tokyo.
Nintendo stock just closed at 62,230 yen - the highest since 2007.
Institutional investors are now figuring out a big secret: the Switch is a mega hit, and it’s December, the biggest month for Nintendo and the video game industry in general.
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Very drastic move from Electronic Arts to entirely close down its office in Japan from one day to the other.
I feel sorry for all employees.
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Sega continues to restructure.
After selling its arcade operations business, reducing its stake in Sanrio (Hello Kitty)+dissolving a small subsidiary, Sega now reportedly asks 650 staff to retire early.
Sega also just reported its financials here in Japan (key slide below).
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People complaining about the monetization in Dr. Mario World will be in for a treat when Mario Kart Tour launches later this summer.
Nintendo tried. Nobody bought Super Mario Run for a fixed price.
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It should be noted here that months ago already, Japanese business publication Nikkei said it learned that Nintendo indeed plans to add more systems to Switch Online.
According to the Nikkei, this would be combined with an additional pricing tier for the service.
SNES controller for Nintendo Switch appears in FCC filing — which hopefully means Super Nintendo games are coming to Switch soon
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Pokemon Go has been downloaded 800 million times.
Even if the big hype was over, it makes total sense to try to re-activate millions of dormant users by connecting the app with the Switch games.
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Nintendo says its theme park Super Nintendo World will now open in Osaka in spring 2021.
A "Mario Cafe & Store" will open inside the Universal Studios Japan park (which Super Nintendo World will be part of) on October 16 already.
[トピックス]『SUPER NINTENDO WORLD™』2021年春開業へ。待望の新エリア誕生に先駆け、『マリオ・カフェ＆ストア』が10月16日にオープン。
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Japanese video game company stock performance from 1/4 to 12/29 (last trading day in Tokyo in 2023)
↓
Nintendo +34%
Sony +32%
Konami +24%
Kadokawa +23%
Capcom +8%
Bandai Namco +2%
Sega -1%
Nexon -14% <- listed + HQ in Japan
Square Enix -18%
Koei Tecmo -31%
Yuke's -58%
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With 0 paid marketing, Animal Crossing is now the No.1 downloaded iPhone app in Australia.
Perfect 5/5 user rating, too.
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1) About Resident Evil 7: Yes, it's in development. The entire game will go back to RE's horror roots and (essentially) be a clean slate.
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Given that Nintendo is selling tablet-grade hardware from 5.5 years ago at the same price today, this is not really surprising.
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The Tokyo stock market is open now, and Capcom investors showed an interesting reaction to the Monster Hunter Wilds reveal.
It looks like the second the announcement hit, investors got excited but then started selling off when they say "2025" as the release date - within 5 min.
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Monster Hunter or Death.
Tune in 9/17 at 7 a.m. PT for a livestreamed
#NintendoDirectMini
: Partner Showcase, featuring information on upcoming
#NintendoSwitch
titles exclusively from our publishing partners.
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According to this news source in Japan (), Sega is working on a new kind of platform they apparently dub "Fog Gaming".
That term is NOT the Japanese equivalent of cloud gaming, but no further infos as of now.
Sega is having a weird day.
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Stock price performance of major Japanese video game devs in 2017:
Square Enix +78%
Nintendo +70%
Sony +53%
Konami +28%
Capcom +26%
Bandai Namco: +14%
Koei Tecmo +8%
Sega Sammy -21%
I know some of the companies do other things as well (but incl. for reference). Numbers rounded.
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About Game Pass, we should be aware that:
🏢 Microsoft is a US$1.5 TRILLION company, one of the biggest on earth
💰US$390 million in revenue DAILY
💸 US$120 million net profit DAILY
As far as "Netflix for gaming" goes, Microsoft overall can bring cannons to a knife fight.
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Big days for Nintendo.
Wed: Animal Crossing Mobile Direct presentation
Fri: Mario Odyssey launch
Mon: 6 months earnings release
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It's 10:05am on Friday in Japan now.
PS5 pre-orders started 5 minutes ago.
As far as I can see, all online stores are sold out of all models or their websites crashed.
I couldn't get one but will keep trying.
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Nintendo stock finishes today at +6.33%.
Fire Emblem Heroes now up to No. 3 in Japan's iPhone grossing charts, ahead of Puzzle & Dragons.
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Sega just announced the establishment of "SEGA Singapore Pte. Ltd.".
Over the last 18 months, a LOT of Japanese studios went to Singapore - typically for crypto-related activities (where Japan is strictly regulated).
Sega doesn't mention this though:
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Good Lord, these Switch HW numbers.
Actual results:
1) Pokemon (NSW): 382,540
2) Ring Fit Adventure (NSW): 26,141
3) Luigi's Mansion 3 (NSW): 23,872
Ring Fit suffers from no supply in Japan.
Switch units: 179,992. Sorry for my language, but WTF.
A 99% hold over last week...
Famitsu's Japan video game sales data for Nov 18-24 is due out in 10 min.
My prediction:
1) Pokemon Sword/Shield (NSW): ~320k
2) Ring Fit Adventure (NSW): ~45k
3) Shenmue III (PS4): ~25k
Ring Fit in Japan still sees severe supply constraints.
Prediction for Switch units: ~90k.
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This entire Bayonetta voice actress payment discussion is incredible marketing for Platinum Games, a jackpot.
Will some people skip the game? Sure.
But this game is now *everywhere* online - literally priceless promotion, especially for a niche/cult title + just before launch.
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Arrived at venue. I think I am not allowed to share pictures already, but this is going to be a big event.
Lots of media people here, including TV.
So you can expect something big to be announced in 30 min.
#PokemonPressConference
It’s going down in Tokyo in 1 hour and yours truly will be at the venue.
The Pokémon Company is live-streaming the event.
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Japanese game company stock moves at the Tokyo Stock Exchange from 1/6 - 12/30 2020:
Capcom +127%
Koei Tecmo +123%
Nintendo +54%
Sony +39%
Bandai Namco +39%
Konami +31%
Square Enix +19%
Sega +3%
(Yes, I have nothing else to do on New Year’s Eve - it’s 2021 now here in Japan.)
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It's Monday noon in Japan where Capcom's stock today hit 4,865 yen earlier in the morning, an all-time high for the company.
(Screenshot shows the price at the current 4,850 yen.)
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I have seen Stellar Blade sold out in several stores in Tokyo the last few days (below a picture I took at a Bic Camera store near Chiba where you could not get a copy anymore at least since yesterday).
Very rare case.
Seems like it will be a big success here in Japan.
At Bic Camera Akihabara people are restricted to only 1 copy per person for Stellar Blade! It will be interesting to see what the physical launch sales will be when the numbers are released next week
#StellarBlade
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Rare week in which the head of Xbox and president of Nintendo of America
@thetruebowser
are in Japan at the same time.
Great to be back in Japan with the team talking and listening to amazing studios and publishers about 2020 and beyond. Really strong energy and excitement here about gaming's future.
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2) In the 1990s, Japan was a lot softer when it comes to video game censorship.
CERO was founded in 2002 and has become stricter and stricter over the years.
Games censored for nudity and violence in Japan include Last Of Us, Cyberpunk, Uncharted 1, Witcher 3, GTA V etc.
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4) The problem is that the gory version, which usually carries CERO's strictest "Z" rating for ages 18+, is ALSO censored when compared with the Western release.
In other words, avoid the Japanese version of such games at all costs - they are always censored. /end
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1) More info from the Nikkei interview with Nintendo president Kimishima. He says he expects the Switch to sell about as well as the Wii.
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This take is so incredibly dumb that I almost don't know what to say.
Nintendo itself confirmed in 2017 already that the majority of users play in both modes (see graph).
See slide 8 here:
But fact-checking would take, god beware, 3 minutes of work.
"Nintendo Isn't That Smart": Pachter Says Nintendo Should Scrap Switch And 'Only Have Switch Lite'
#NintendoSwitch
#MichaelPachter
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Here it is: Nintendo announces Animal Crossing-themed Direct on Wednesday at noon Japanese time.
[任天堂HP]明後日10月25日（水）お昼12時から「スマートフォン版 どうぶつの森 Direct 2017.10.25」を放送します。放送時間は約15分です。
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From my site:
"Price Breakdown Of A $70 Video Game: Digital Vs Physical"
Where is your $70 going?
(Time zone RT)
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Bloomberg reports Sony's PlayStation team members had no idea about the company's cloud game-related memorandum of understanding with Microsoft and were upset.
Apparently, Sony talked with Amazon first:
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Japan's cash-richest companies (source: Toyo Keizai):
1. Sony: US$17.46 billion
2. Nintendo: $11.4 bn
3. Shin-Etsu (chemicals): $9.9 bn
..
10. Nexon (Korean company but HQ in Tokyo): $4.8 bn
This is net cash, not cash flow (which is why Toyota doesn't appear here, for example).
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Never underestimate the petty vengefulness of a big Japanese corporation.
P.T. was playable on PS5 until ‘publisher decision’ made it PS4-only
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Nintendo stock is currently up 2.11% at the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
At 49,470 yen, their stock price is the highest since August 2008.
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My own prediction is 18.5 million.
But my personal + non-snarky opinion is: Who cares?
I know every unit counts, but what difference does it make if they sell 18 or 20 mn units this fiscal?
The device is only in its 2nd year + will build up a solid install base over time.
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Damn, they are closing Tango Gameworks in Tokyo as well (the studio behind Evil Within 1+2 and Hi-Fi Rush).
This is a *terrible* signal towards the Japanese game industry from Microsoft.
BREAKING: Xbox is shutting down Arkane Austin, Tango Gameworks, and two other studios. Story hitting Bloomberg shortly
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3) Needless to say, censorship also affects home-made games, i.e. Resident Evil - when compared to the Western release.
It is also important to understand that sometimes, Japanese games get 2 releases, one cut and one "gory" version.
The gory version typically sells better.
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Very good Nintendo numbers across the board.
Where are the shorts and nay-sayers now?
- digital growth is significant (20.6 to 40.9bn yen q-o-q)
- Zelda Link's Awakening sells 3mn units in 10 days
- Switch Lite sells 2mn units in 10 days
- mobile still ignored by the company
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Nintendo announces business tie-up with Tokyo-based mobile game developer Cygames (), part of CyberAgent group.
The first co-developed game is Dragalia Lost, an action RPG, will be released this summer in Japan, with other markets following later.
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Japan's cash-richest companies (net cash position):
1. Toshiba: US$9 billion
2. Nintendo: $7.8 bn
3. Shin-Etsu (chemicals): $7.5 bn
4. Subaru: $6.8 bn
5. Fanuc (robotics): $5.6bn
Toyota doesn't keep its cash and so isn't even in the top 100 but is No. 1 for cash flow.
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Guinness World Records is using Vgchartz as a reference for this number (zoom in on the document).
Is this a joke?
We're thrilled to be certified as the best-selling home video game console brand ever, with over 450 million units sold across the original PlayStation, PS2, PS3, and PS4 as of Nov. 7 according to
@GWR
.
And it's all thanks to you 💙
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1) Japanese daily Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun released a (very short) interview with Nintendo president Furukawa today.
He says Smash Bros sales passed 5 million globally in week 1.
Says Switch is the home console seeing the fastest software sales so far in Nintendo's history.
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Pokémon core RPG and Metroid Prime 4 coming to Switch. This thing will continue to be difficult to get for a long, long time.
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What investors are being fed with:
"Switch has peaked"
"Everybody who wants a Switch already has one"
vs
What the facts are:
In the US, Switch sales in Feb 2019 are +30% year-on-year.
In Japan: +47% in the same month year-on-year.
Preliminary February 2019 NPD figures: Switch best-selling hardware for the month, followed by PS4 & then Xbox One.
Estimated sales for Feb are:
Switch - 363k
PS4 - 280k
Xbox One - 220k
Strong opening to 2019 for Switch. Smash Bros. continues to perform well at retail.
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2) They will show it at E3. The RE7 team hired Jordan Amaro, a designer who previously worked on MGS V and P. T. at Kojima Productions. /end
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Looked at some Pokemon sales date in Japan.
Let's Go delivers.
Nov. 2017:
Ultra sells 1.2mn against ~24mn 3DS install base*
Nov. 2018:
Let’s Go sells 660k against ~5.5mn Switch install base*
Both in 3 days (source: Famitsu, *Nintendo at end of Sept of respective year).
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Nintendo already starts in-store promotions for the Pokémon games for Switch.
Here in Yodobashi’s Akihabara store.
They give away these caps I will never wear.
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Published by Sony studio Aniplex.
They will sell so many copies, it's not even funny.
Additionally, Aniplex is behind the in-development Kimetsu No Yaiba multiplayer action game on mobile, also due out in 2021.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – Hinokami Kepputan adds PS5, Xbox One, and PC versions
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Both Switch Lite and Zelda - Link's Awakening are getting rave reviews.
Zelda is at 88% at Metacritic.
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Trading at the Tokyo Stock Exchange ended for 2021.
Stock price performance of Japanese video game companies between 1/4 to 12/30:
Sony +39%
Nippon Ichi +26%
Sega +12%
Bandai Namco +3%
Nihon Falcom -2%
Square Enix -4%
Koei Tecmo -5%
Konami -5%
Nintendo -18%
Capcom -18%
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Nintendo stock just closed the trading day here in Tokyo at a whopping +7.06%. Last time it was this high was in 2008.
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"Nobody expected such sales for a console in its fourth year,"
-> Except for people who understand how the video game business works or for people who take 5 minutes to check historic sales data.
(Hint is in the third paragraph from the bottom - right in this article.)
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It should be noted that the Japanese journalist teasing the scoop last week said it will be on PS5-reveal level is not known to be a clown, troll, or show-off.
I am not his lawyer and not claiming the scoop will really be earth-shattering, but it could be interesting.
A key opinion leader in China says they have seen the latest Famitsu issue and that they can confidently say that the news is not what has been rumored. (The rumor being that Microsoft would work with Sega to rebrand and launch Series X in Japan).
Is something else.
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