Team of Psephologists led by a Kerala Born MH settled indv.
19 long years of exp in Mkt Research/Election Surveys. Unbiased
@work
. Swayam Sevaks, Pro Modi
BJP & NDA PERFORMED AS PER OUR EXPECTATION IN PHASE 1
TN will see LOTUS BLOOMING, ANNAMALAI is WINNING as per the report we hv from ground
BJP + is performing pretty well across their bastions&states like WB, CT
50-55% seats may come NDA way
IT IS NEITHER AN OPINION/EXIT POLL
MODI 3.0 is 100% HAPPENING, that too BJP ALONE getting the ABSOLUTE MANDATE.
No doubt in that regard.
7th Phase is also no different. Even in WB, this phase will give BJP seats. PB also has got 'SOMETHING to OFFER'
NUMBERS on 1st JUNE 8PM
For those who still believe that BJP may settle for 220, please keep these two sentences with u.
BJP alone START this FIGHT from 250 seats
They can easily add 60-100 seats to it
Thats MODI & ORGANISATION for you
Majority of voters r no more mere fools.They know who to elect
THRISSUR
SURESH GOPI is in Poll Position as per our assessment
If our samples and methodology are correct, SG is going to get votes even from unexpected zones which may secure his victory
BJP+ - 25-37
AAP- 33-45
INC- 0-1
We have tried our best to gauge the mood after polling. We also committed mistakes in the past, though victories were on the higher side. This time, 95% of pollsters hv predicted a AAP wave, but we stand with a different CALL, that too firmly
KERALA- TAMIL NADU- TELANGANA
SOUTH will give every Pro BJP, Pro Sangh, Pro Nationalist, Pro Modi, Pro Sanatani (All r in a way one though) a REWARD for DECADES long EFFORT/WAIT
KARYAKARTHAS, WAIT FOR YOUR MOMENT... JUST 33 DAYS
NB- KARNATAKA & ANDHRA also wont disappoint
BENGAL - LOKSABHA 2024
The state is witnessing huge polarisation ahead of Loksabha. Anger against Mamata is visible among majority of H voters ans interestingly even M voters are blaming her in every pockets.
If a fine and fair election occurs, BJP will reap BIGGER BENEFITS.
𝗖𝗢𝗜𝗠𝗕𝗔𝗧𝗢𝗥𝗘
𝗧𝗵𝗶𝗿𝘂. 𝗔𝗡𝗡𝗔𝗠𝗔𝗟𝗔𝗜 is CLEARLY AHEAD in the RACE as on today.
As per our sample data, He is ahead even to a 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗗𝗠𝗞+ 𝗔𝗗𝗠𝗞 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲 (if they play tactical/adjustment voting) as of now...
TELANGANA & ANDHRA are HEADING towards NDA
TG, as we say indelibly, is having a tremendous Modi wave while the combination of TDP-JS-BJP +Modi as the Leader works for NDA in AP
Visited TG number of times since Nov, even last week while visited AP thrice in last 2 months
6th PHASE ASSESSMENT-
As per primary report,
WB-8 Seats-State is bringing stunning result as per our primary report.BJP is in contest in each seat and wont surprise if they grab all
UP-14-Last time NDA had 9, this time a dozen look comfortable
JHK-4-Expecting a SWEEP
(1/3)
ODISHA- BENGAL- TELANGANA- UTTAR PRADESH- TAMIL NADU hv got the STUFF to compensate the loses and energise the upward trend of BJP
OUR EXIT NUMBERS ON 1/6/2024 8 PM
With all pride, We were the 1st pollsters, who regularly tweet/post on SM, forecasted a big surprise from BENGAL, TELANGANA & ODISHA in 2019.
We do forecast the same also in 2024
Presently n Bengal now, 🔥🔥🔥. These 3 along with 3 other south indian states will add surprises
Outcome of 2024 is a DONE DEAL
Opposition can fight either for 2029 or 2034...
BJP is in no mood to relax even if they know that party will retain power... It is a fine gesture and excellent campaign is awaiting us across India.
Have got specific plans for each states...
PHASE 2 PRIMARY ASSESSMENT-
NDA magnificently fought this Phase and made it theirs without any notable loses barring a few from KA (1-3)- RJ(0-2)
On the other hand, we believe, KERALA has contributed SEAT to BJP
UP- What a performance in 1st two phases, 95% HIT RATE
(1/2)
#TN
#LocalBodyElection
AIADMK+ has done an excellent come back in this election
They r having a clear lead in GRAMA PANCHAYATS
While DMK has a slight edge in DISTRICT PANCHAYATS
BJP has been doing better in Salem, Coimbatore, Nagarcoil region
More updates r awaited
BJP looks unbeatable in 250,these r the seats they can win without much effort& deliberately avoided any seats from TN, KL & AP(though they r going to win seats from all the 3)
In another 150-160 seats,they r in fight with the opposition in which they can easily get 75-80
(1)
5th PHASE ASSESSMENT (Not An Exit Poll)
In nutshell, BJP did extremely well in UP (Rahul may scrape thru as per early report)huge women voter consolidation in favour of Modi across the State), ODISHA(Wont surprise if BJP sweep this phase or maintain its past performance)
(1/2)
UP-WB-MP-GJ-MH-RJ-KA-BH-OD-JHK-AS-CG-TG alone can provide BJP the
seats to retain power on its own
Considered the lowest figure expected to attain from these states
Leave all the clamours u hear on SM/YouTube saying Opposition is objecting NDA in BIG.This is just BJP for u😄
We kept on saying that Modi 3.0 is a DONE DEAL.
A deal beget, nurtured and maintained exceedingly well by the minds of crores of people, including huge number of BENEFICIARIES,People having reverence towards him & his way of administration,SANGH SAMAJ & abv all true NATIONALISTS
TAMIL NADU
BJP smelt the Blood and clear indications are before you, all might is investing in the state, Modi already had rallies, and is again gonna have back to back rallies...
MODI & THE WOMEN VOTERS
Women voters in LARGE,consider Modi as God/father/brother/saviour is a matter of case study
UP-WB-MH-MP-BH-GJ-RJ-KA-OD-TG-JHK-AS-CG-HR-DL-UT-HP
This phenomenon is seen even in TN, KL, AP etc(though restricted 2 certain regions,seats)
It is STILL INTACT
OUR FORECAST OF LOKSABHA SEATS 𝗘𝗫𝗣𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗘𝗗 𝗧𝗢 𝗕𝗘 𝗪𝗢𝗡 𝗕𝗬 𝗡𝗗𝗔 IN 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 (BASED ON CURRENT STATUS)
𝗕𝗝𝗣'𝘀 𝗦𝗘𝗔𝗧 𝗥𝗔𝗡𝗚𝗘 is given at the Bottom
(𝗔𝗣𝗥𝗜𝗟 𝟭𝟮,𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗨𝗣𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗘)
*️⃣ UP-73-77
*️⃣ MH- 34-40
*️⃣ BH- 33-39
(1)
PATHANAMTHITTA SEAT (KL)
Team has been there in Top 6 seats of BJP in the state
In PTA,Anil Antony may become the DARK HORSE seeing the reactions from ground
He slowly & steadily affirms his position
C voters in good number supporting him,along with Nair+ Portions of Ezhavas
𝗝𝗛𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗛𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗢𝗣𝗜𝗡𝗜𝗢𝗡 𝗣𝗢𝗟𝗟 (Data as on 7/12/23)
*️⃣ NDA (BJP+ AJSU)- 46-52
*️⃣ I. N. D. I. Alliance (JMM+INC+RJD+CPM+CPI+NCP (P))- 27-33
*️⃣ OTHERS (CPIML, AIMIM etc)- 0-2
⬅️ Our Team Covered 23 Assembly Constituencies
The sentences used by Amit Shah in INDIA TODAY/AAJ TAK conclave
1. South& North divide will be vanished after 2024 election
2. Opposition will face zoopta saaf (wipe out)
3. BJP has got a strong base and fighting election on that
4. Modi literally has no serious threat
TWO MAJOR SCHEMES that bring votes for Modi led NDA are, infact many let ot unnoticed, JAN AUSHADHI & MUDRA LOAN
These two have played a magnificent role on ground shaping up a good amount of votes towards MODI
When we interact with people, they involuntarily say abt these
1/2
Presently in HARYANA
Sitiation is not AS IF many said & disseminated on SM/you tube.
Though there r issues in JAT belts, interestingly OBCs, SCs, UCs still majorly voting for Modi govt, this will definitely influence those seats where fight is seen. Even JATS vote for MODI here
#GroundReport
What a remarkable come back by BJP in Delhi
We have met over 18000 voters in last 27 days
Last 10 days have seen a giant leap in BJP's campaign and we have been witnessing it on ground
We hv been repeating that BJP is not the one that fought in 2015
LETS WAIT
MODI MODI MODI
No matter who contests 4 BJP/NDA(in 80% of seats across India), voters r voting 4 ONE PERSON&for his RETENTION AS INDIA's PM(for 3rd Consecutive Time)
For Eg-Presently in WB&the mood on ground is electrifying, they r all set 2 vote 4 Modi. Even 25 looks possible
#TELANGANA
BJP is making an excellent come back... They were a distant third earlier, but interesting moves from the centre and the push pn ground makes things engaging... Even if they are at 3rd spot, excellent run in NZB, Adilabad, Karimnagar, Nirmal, Kamareddy districts
𝟯 𝗧𝗔𝗞𝗘 𝗔𝗪𝗔𝗬𝗦
*️⃣ 3 NDA PARTNERS EXPECTED TO HIT DOUBLE DIGITS in this ELECTION
*️⃣ NDA PARTNERS shall together cross 2019 TALLY (48)
*️⃣ PARTNERS contributing GOOD TO BETTER against the 'SENTIMENT' on SM
A New Addition to our surveys--- Will be given on a monthly basis till May
RATING OF NDA & I.N.D.I.Alliance as of today (probability to get power)
𝗡𝗗𝗔- 𝟳𝟳%
𝗜.𝗡.𝗗.𝗜.𝗔𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲- 𝟮𝟯%
𝐌𝐎𝐃𝐈 𝐚𝐬 𝐏𝐌- 𝟕𝟐%
𝐑𝐀𝐇𝐔𝐋- 𝟏𝟕%
𝐌𝐀𝐌𝐀𝐓𝐀- 𝟑%
𝐎𝐓𝐇- 𝟖%
The very same 2019 gang has relaunched on Social Media Platforms yelling 'BJP in Trouble, NDA in Trouble'....
What to say to those Right Wingers who fall often to this same 'old story'!!!
BJP/NDA to win BIG in 2024 too... It is a matter of just 4 months, wait and watch.
BJP IN KERALA
1. Unprecedented level of enthusiasm on ground
2. Party should ensure they convert all these exhilarations to votes in Apri/May
3. For that party must field strong/renowned candidates at least in 15 seats to claim a vote share of close to 20
(1)
𝗠𝗔𝗛𝗔𝗥𝗔𝗦𝗛𝗧𝗥𝗔
Spent valuable time
It seems,NDA is not going to loose many seats here. It may go in tandem with our opinion poll as of now
If any change is perceived,shall be notified during exit poll
15-16 seats see fight in which majority may go NDA way till date
BE COOL
Opposition wanted to be in the game, so do sections of media, so they keep on creating news showing intense fight on ground, BJP may lose some seats in the already saturated regions/states, but they will gather more from other zones.
Party is in no mood to lie back.
𝗞𝗔𝗥𝗡𝗔𝗧𝗔𝗞𝗔
BJP is doing pretty well in the State, absolute close fight is seen in only 2-3 seats
VOTE FOR MODI is seen on ground, specifically focused on samples of Women voters, and it looks 55-60---40-45 in favour of Modi/NDA in this region.
It looks
UP-BENGAL-ODISHA- TELANGANA-TAMIL NADU-ANDHRA-ASSAM-KERALAM together can contribute ADDITIONAL 32-42 seats to BJP's Total As on Today. It will help them compensate and drive forward thwarting minor loses expected in some states
BJP/NDA did very well in 1st Phase as per the FINAL report that v hv
Once again giving major take aways-
✅Party may win 90-100% seats went 4 polls in UP
✅Heading for a clean sweep (mostly) in MP
✅Performed Well in tandem with our opinion poll in TN
✅Clear lead in MH
1/3
5 BIG STATES and BJP AS ON DATE
No Numbers for the time being, but indicators are here.This is not an Exit Poll
(⬆️- Nominally Up, ⬆️⬆️- Notable Increase ⬇️-Nominally Down, ⬇️⬇️- Notable Decrease, ↔️- Expecting No Changes/Status Quo)
UP-⬆️⬆️
MH-⬆️
WB-⬆️⬆️⬆️
BH-⬇️
TN-⬆️⬆️
ONCE AGAIN SILENT VOTERS, those who hv benefited from various central schemes, taking the GAME away from I. N. D. I ALLIANCE. They are not vocal but seen everywhere, they speak up only when we talk to them.
Based on our numerous interactions, such people do cast their votes too
BIHAR---
The state where i am touring right now will give BJP+ a thumping win in 2024 monitoring present situation. We told the aame earlier also.
Hv got excellent response in reverence to BHAVYA RAM. MANDIR...
Truly speaking, No requirement of JDU in the alliance.
#BENGAL
#GroundReport
50
If it is a hung assembly, congress will support TMC says Adhir Ranjan 😉
DONT WORRY CHOUDHARY SAHAB, THAT WONT HAPPEN 😀😀
U may not be on ground, but WE ARE
HINDU RESURGENCE IS JUST BEFORE OUR EYES
UNPRECEDENTED SCENES FROM UP
AYODHYA IS SAFFRONISED
ENTIRE UP AWAITS FOR TOMORROW
WHAT A MOMENT...
NB- OPPOSITION WILL WASH AWA IN LOKSABHA ELECTION, SUCH IS THE ATMOSPHERE HERE...
BENGAL
Our team reports from Bengal that if BJP intensifies its campaign in upcoming days/months and an early declaration of candidates can really reap in spectacular gains from the state in upcoming loksabha elections no matter TMC and the Left+INC allies or not...
If someone believe that BJP's bypoll defeat in Rajastan will hv its ripple effect in Loksabha, then they must be day dreaming...
It will be 25/25 for BJP in Rajastan in 2024 seeing present trend on ground, we hv got clear data in hand to substantiate it
ELECTION ROUND UP
CHHATTISGARH- KURMI & SAHU voters are returning to BJP fold in sizeable number. Yet, INC holds the key edge... BJP is in all set to clinch the state while Baghel& Team is defending well
𝗜𝗡𝗖-𝟰𝟳-𝟱𝟯
𝗕𝗝𝗣- 𝟯𝟱-𝟰𝟯
𝗢𝗧𝗛-𝟬-𝟮
Next numbers on 8/11/23
HEAT is the MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS the polling areas (5th to 7th phase seats)
We also bore the brunt. Heat Wave affected us and our work heavily. Party cadres try their best to bring voters in coming phases, BJP in particular
Clearly understood how heat is affecting entire India.
ELECTION ROUND UP
𝗥𝗔𝗝𝗔𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗡- Even after having rebel issues BJP is keeping the decisive lead as Congress has aplenty of issues to handle with.
𝗕𝗝𝗣-𝟭𝟭𝟱-𝟭𝟮𝟱
𝗜𝗡𝗖-𝟲𝟱-𝟳𝟱
𝗢𝗧𝗛-𝟱-𝟭𝟬
BENGAL ---
As we said last day,BJP is doing extremely good in Bengal,each of the region we mentioned last day is turning out to be stunners.BJP is the BEST 2nd THING in BENGAL POLITICS without any doubt now. TMC vs BJP👍🏻
And all set to hit 10000 seats in GPs if fortune favours
𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗥𝗗 𝗣𝗛𝗔𝗦𝗘 𝗔𝗦𝗦𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧
(This is not an Exit Poll)
BJP led NDA did pretty well in this spell of polls too
𝗨𝗣-𝟭𝟬 𝗦𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗦-
Though expecting tough fights in 3 seats,BJP/NDA is expected to sail thru with (minimal)or without a loss from 2019
(1)
Let any poll strategist say anything of his wish on BIHAR... As far as the LOKSABHA election is concerned, NDA is clearly ahead in the state and anger is brewing against the present state rule...
ANDHRA PRADESH
LOKSABHA- Tough Close Fight with 55-60--- 40-45 in favour of NDA. YSRCP is giving close fight
VIDHAN SABHA- As we said earlier, Jagan is someone who cant be underestimated, is back in the game as per the latest data we gauged till date. Edge to YSRCP as on today
BJP can win 162-170 seats out of the 195 seats they declared last night based on the PRESENT TREND comprises of the samples that we hv, the interactions that we had with voters & the cult of Modi before a large chunk of voters who vote for Modi not looking at the Candidate
EAST & SOUTH are the REAL SURPRISES of 2024 LOKSABHA ELECTION for BJP
Hv travelled thrice through the states in thia region in past 3 months and our team reiterates it
#BENGAL
#GroundReport
53
If anyone still distrust the INCREDIBLE PERFORMANCE OF BJP IN WB, V hv nothing else 2 SAY
Hv been spending lot of energy on ground ever since Jan
Everything is CRYSTAL CLEAR
As we always say including sections of Ms, majority r showing her the DOOR
𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗜𝗦𝗦𝗨𝗥 (𝗞𝗘𝗥𝗔𝗟𝗔𝗠)
Our data based on the collected samples till date displays the shift of Lady H voters towards BJP in large number&amusingly sections of poor/middle class C voters too
If the trend continues&BJP uses it properly,SG will hv a SPLENDID LAST LAUGH
Kashmir Files itself can kill the hopes of INC/Other opposition parties in GJ, HP, TR and even KA (if screened it properly)
Such is the depth of the feeling/pain it imparts
BJP will UNSETTLE I.N.D.I Alliance ALSO in J K
Such is the reactions on ground.
Visiting the territory after a gap of almost 5 years.
Change is visible from the words of both natives & tourists
KERALA (Till 27/3/24)
UDF-13-15
LDF-3-5
NDA-1-2
TOP 6 SEATS OF BJP-
TCR-NDA continues 2% edge over LDF
TVM-UDF still maintain the edge in a close fight with NDA. LDF also trying hard on ground not 2 be a distant 3rd
PTA-Evenly poised.All the 3 fronts r fighting it out
(1/2)
𝗘𝗟𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 𝗥𝗢𝗨𝗡𝗗 𝗨𝗣-
𝐓𝐄𝐋𝐀𝐍𝐆𝐀𝐍𝐀-
Congress has improved its position, but not something that can attain them power. BJP is in fight in two dozen seats.
𝗕𝗥𝗦- 𝟱𝟱-𝟲𝟮
𝗜𝗡𝗖- 𝟯𝟮-𝟯𝟴
𝗕𝗝𝗣-𝟭𝟰-𝟮𝟬
𝗢𝗧𝗛-𝟱-𝟴
Next figures on 8/11/23
MADHYA PRADESH-
BJP won 132 seats with a margin of >10000
INC could win only 33 with the
same margin
BJP won 68 seats with over 25K margin
While INC won only 13 in this fashion
BJP became victorious in 20 seats with a margin>50k
When INC couldnt even win a SINGLE SEAT alike
KERALA STATUS (Till 5/3/2024) (We hv got 3500-4500 samples from each constituency)
UDF-11-14
LDF-4-8
NDA-1-2 (SG Leading in TCR with 2% margin as per our assessment while in TVM,the situation may move in favour of BJP if they properly fight the election(Till 5/3/24)
1/2
#BENGAL
#GroundReport
69
Met thousands of voters during this lengthy period of interactions, still meeting many, having conversations, reading the tendencies.
As we said in Dec 2018, it's BJP gonna rule WB this time
No doubt whatsoever