Saeed Afridi
@safridis
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International Relations, Security & Energy-Security Scholar with a focus on Central Asia. Interests: History, Travel, Reading & Writing Stories
London, England
Joined April 2010
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The findings informed the COAS that the events in question were ‘instigated’ and ‘orchestrated’ by the Intelligence Bureau (I.B) under instructions from the Ministry of Interior with assistance from members from the Ministry of Defence and some citizens
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States experiencing some form of transition from authoritarianism towards democracy live through several important, even pivotal, moments of decision …
Pakistan, well, Pakistan’s Army Chief (COAS), is now faced with one such moment
1/n
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Choose wisely COAS
…
The decision COAS chooses to make might end up defining his own legacy..
BUT more importantly…
it WILL define the short term future of Pakistan’s transition from authoritarianism towards Democracy
10/10
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Pakistan’s COAS is now presented with a clear choice;
Take concerted & comprehensive action based on the report’s findings
or
Continue pursuing the present course against “innocent” citizens
Former; he will simply be doing his duty
Latter; he will be committing treason
9/n
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So far, unfortunate but understandable. However, ALL that changed this weekend when Pakistan’s Military Intelligence (MI) presented the COAS a report with its preliminary findings on the acts of vandalism and damage to Army property
6/n
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Assuming the COAS was not a participant or complicit but simply unaware, his actions since 9th May, though unfortunate, do provide him with deniability … having been presented the findings of the report… this is no longer true
8/n
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The aftermath of Imran Khan’s arrest, it manner later deemed illegal, saw widespread protests by his supporters (PTI) in Pakistan and isolated incidents of vandalism & property damage that led to, as yet, 25 citizens killed by the state
2/n
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COAS reacted impulsively against the ‘obvious’ culprit (PTI) and all these measures seemed like the knee-jerk reaction of an Army whose ‘untouchable’ status was wounded under his watch
5/n
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Protests with vandalism, property damage and the killing of civilians by the state are not a rarity in Pakistan, but this was unprecedented.. the vandalism and property damage was aimed the Pakistan Army.. unprecedented short of a civil war
3/n
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The state’s (Army’s) response was immediate and forceful. PTI, in all but name, treated like a terrorist organisation, mass arrests, arbitrary detentions & multiple dozens simply abducted, despite court restrictions, most be tried in military courts
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The following two threads are based on conversations over the past months with officials & senators in the US regarding the mess that has emerged in Pakistan this year ..
I thank you all for the permission, & in some cases, insistence, to write this publically
1/n
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Indus-G Block:
Without making this into an “introduction” to ‘Offshore drilling 101’, let me do this in a very VERY simple way (one we normally take when explaining offshore drilling to “high school” interns who come for a ‘day visit’
1/n
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Pakistan
A populist political leader relying solely on the power & sheer will of the people (voters) is presenting an existential challenge to the Military’s coercive political power as his voters take on the combined might of the state’s institutions
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So.. all the morbid celebrations of failure & declarations of success can wait for a while.. you might still get the opportunity to celebrate the failure or success.. but a little patience would be nice.. for now
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This is beyond comical & takes apples vs oranges to new heights
...
You have to wonder if anyone, absolutely anyone, in the entire research team has any idea how the Energy Procurement system works (both within Pakistan -deeply flawed - & outside it)
..
Just terrible journalism
Sad to see petroleum ministry spread lies to defend blunders. They are comparing 16.9% rate of Dec 2020 with 10.8% for dec 2019. But to mislead the public they’re using absolute prices instead of percentages.Want to know why? Because Brent prices were high in 2019 than 2020.👇🏼1/2
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Midnight 8th February 2024
The question is answered.
Military ‘no longer’ retains absolute control of the country…
It may be correct to claim that the Military is no longer the strongest political party in Pakistan
How will the Military react to this new reality?
1/n
Pakistan Elections: 8th February 2024
Irrespective of its legality & legitimacy the election will answer "ONE" specific and EXTREMELY important question.
...
“Will Pakistan’s strongest political party (the Military) manage to RETAIN its absolute control of the country?”
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Pakistan democratic transition is getting more interesting…
a question for constitutionalists
(ceteris paribus)
On the 1st of May 2023;
Is Gen Asim Munir the 5th Military Martial Law administrator
Or
Is Shahbaz Sharif the 2nd Civilian Martial Law administrator
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My apologies … I stand corrected …
Pakistan’s Military decided on a 3rd reaction … the “”DUMBEST”” reaction possible
“” pretend the people’s verdict does NOT exist “”
It takes an extraordinary level of stupidity to be THIS short sighted
Pakistan’s competitive authoritarianism is changing
Intelligent reaction would be for the Military to embrace this & carve its own new niche within Pakistan’s new reality
…
The dumb thing would be to try & re-establish absolute control
Break tradition .. be intelligent
2/2
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I can't be the only person who would want to see
@ZarrarKhuhro
do a one-on-one interview with Iran's Major General Baqeri when he arrives in Pakistan...
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Pak’s COAS, at odds with IK on key issues, took BCSAA’s desire as a ‘green light’ to intervene, ostensibly at the behest of the US Govt, to remove a democratically elected PM/Govt & replace them with a govt the COAS preferred & perceived as more acceptable to the US
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Awkward Moment:
During a webinar discussion on the radicalising impact of EU’s inaction on Palestine/Israel..a Polish participant chided her German counterpart
..
“Seven decades later and you still can’t recognise genocide”
..
It wasn’t framed as a question,but a statement
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Imagine
@TheDailyShow
platform which stood by the likes of
@byoussef
as Egypt’s military strangled populist democracy is tonight going to use
@kalpenn
to whitewash
@BBhuttoZardari
’s support of Pakistan’s Military doing the same
Would
@jonstewart
have done this?
Expedience :)
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This resulted in a badly crafted & terribly choreographed political intervention, instigated & supported by the Pakistan military which, without any US Govt assistance, managed to create political & economic instability which since has become a legitimate headache for the US
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This unpopular & botched intervention by Pak military has resulted in an unprecedented populist challenge to Pak military’s over bearing role in Pak politics &, through NO FAULT of the US administration, a truly "EXPONENTIAL" rise in anti-Americanism within Pakistan
10/n
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Interesting & thought provoking by
@ArifCRafiq
on Pakistan's truly myopic & deeply delusional drive towards yet more political & economic instability
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For many leading proponents of, & quite used to, US-led political engineering in Pakistan this refusal came as a disheartening surprise
..
Given the past few years, it should NOT have surprised anyone
Why?
That will be dealt with by a 2nd thread later sometime
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Kekra-1 has ONLY reached the desired drill depth (16th May 2019).. (i.e Twt: 3/n) .. the reports have been sent to both ENi & Exxon and the cores will now be analysed (Twt: 4/n) .. thats ALL that has happened… no discovery, no declaration, no positive/negative result YET..
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Its in this background,US officials were presented a Pak military proposal for US budgetary/economic support as military implements a temporary emergency,forcefully clamp IK’s challenge & then hold elections, guaranteeing a 'friendly' Prime Minister(present Foreign Minister)
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Given the history & m.o of previous US interventions in Pak’s political affairs, this ought to have been an acceptable, if not welcome, proposal that could result in superficial stability in Pak & serve US interests
..
This time, there were "NO TAKERS" in Washington
NONE
14/n
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The broad coalition cobbled together by Pak military to replace IK’s govt has proved comparatively unpopular, faced repeated electoral setbacks, FURTHER fuelled anti-Americansism & made IK’s future return to govt through elections a dilemma never before faced by the military
12/n
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Proxy Management:
Seeing the predicament PTM faces in Pakistan today,its important to understand HOW a movement that grew out of populist initial grievances became largely impotent as the Afghan peace process progressed..
This thread will delve lightly into why this happened..
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Since IK's agitation against ‘a US-led conspiracy’ began,Pak military has failed to legitimise its instigated intervention as its usual levers of controls faltered repeatedly & pushed Pakistan, unstable most of the time, towards alarming political & economic instability
11/n
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What is now clear,& beyond doubt, the Bureau of Central & South Asian Affairs(BCSAA)'s head did express displeasure with IK-Govt’s direction within its(BCSAA's) purview & indicated that greater US economic & military assistance would be predicated on a change of PM & policy
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Preliminary investigations in Washington clarified that no such intervention was intended or sanctioned, at any important level in the US Govt.
However, when IK presented traceable, all be it circumstantial, evidence it led to some red faces in US-Admin & State Dept
3/n
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Here
@ArifCRafiq
highlights the root problem
"Culturally oriented toward the West, commanders of the Pakistan Army and Pakistani elites in general relish in the spectacle of visits from senior U.S. officials and dignitaries".
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When Pakistan’s [Pak] former PM Imran Khan (IK) claimed that a US Govt backed ‘conspiracy’ removed him from office, his accusation was met with complete bemusement in the US, esp in the Senate’s Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees [CFR] [CAS].
2/n
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How then was IK able to present any evidence at all & do so while publically naming the Asistant Secretary of State for South & Central Asia as the source?
How was this possible when there was no US Govt sanctioned ‘conspiracy’(plot etc) to remove IK from office?
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What is being witnessed is Pakistan now SHOULD have happened decades ago …
it’s almost 40 years too late
2/n
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“Afridi…willing to state this publicly?”
So,
@SenatorCardin
&
@SFRCdems
.. here goes
@POTUS
's Democrat Presidency may leave office with a lasting, & possibly haunting, legacy in Central Asia
…
one that would have changed the effective regional US power projection
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Systems: Pakisan's Judiciary
There is nothing surprising or even unusual about Pak’s Supreme Court's internal divisions.
Pak’s judiciary, lower & upper, has, for decades, been predicated on ‘court packing’; the manipulation of judges’ appointments for partisan ends.
1/n
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BCSAA(still mired by ‘Wider Central Asia’, ‘Wider South Asia’ & ‘New Silk Road Initiative’ failures) is dominated by India centric policy-thought and its tendency to propel this departmental bias isn’t a secret, both in public & before senate committees
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This time US officials/senators "INSISTED" that there should be no further "barely constitutional" measures,military follow norms of service(on retirements),reduce its political role & the US assist a ‘democratically legitimate’ govt to pursue political & economic stability
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Pakistan’s competitive authoritarianism is changing
Intelligent reaction would be for the Military to embrace this & carve its own new niche within Pakistan’s new reality
…
The dumb thing would be to try & re-establish absolute control
Break tradition .. be intelligent
2/2
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170
During a dinner discussion Gen Iqbal inquired whether any delays were anticipated in the announcement of election results …
Gen Arif (only half in jest) replied:
Delays? Not at all. He [CGS] can announce the results a week before the elections are held.
Pakistan Elections
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However, this was in no way a concerted policy sanctioned by the State Dept, White House or the Senate Committees but ‘merely’ the BCSAA's head's desire,steeped in departmental bias, which would have led to further dialogue & diplomacy in any functional country
7/n
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Even now the reports could be negative, or positive but later the stem-test declare the well not ‘financially viable’, or show a different location to be more suitable or a few dozen other complications that would lead to the abandonment of ‘this particular well’
9/n
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So,contrary to IK's assertions,the US did NOT instigate a conspiracy that led to military removing IK's Govt
..
Further
..
when given the opportunity,later, US officials REFUSED to participate in a barely constitutional proposal incl a crack down against IK’s political party
16/n
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#Systems
: Live proceedings of the Supreme Court Pakistan:
The grandstanding that comes with such spectacles aside, the sheer level of "mediocrity" on display by a large majority of the participants explains why Pakistan’s judicial system is such a quagmire
1/n
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So here goes… in the most simplest terms.. offshore drilling has some distinct phases before the decision on extraction can be made..
..
(1) initial formation reports (seismic etc)
(2) drilling process
(3) analysis/testing/assessment
..
2/n
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Every(repeat EVERY) person who has even a basic knowledge of Pak’s Judicial System is aware of this.
So, most people asking for a ‘full bench’ are basically just asking for election postponement but feel EMBARRASED to say it out loud .. because that verdict would be absurd
5/n
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All it takes to turn a peaceful protest into a violent riot is to put an IDIOT in charge of stopping it
..
“Nature is bountiful where idiots are concerned”
(‘Night Watch’ by Terry Pratchett)
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Rights Activists should study the journey from the Pashtun Long March to the PTM of today to understand how rights based mass-movements born out of legitimate grievances get swallowed by Pakistan's 'narrative industry' to become mere pawns in internal political tussles
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If preliminary reports (usually seismic) of the bed are favourable & can justify expensive (50 to 100 million), exhausting & considerably accident-prone process of drilling, a drilling contractor & rig in engaged to drill to the “initial desired depth”
3/n
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If “POSITIVE” results are found at this stage the ONLY thing that can be said for CERTAIN is that hydrocarbons were present AT SOME TIME at this depth..THATS IT..a positive result would then lead to stem-testing to determine things like pressure & possible production capacity
5/n
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Pakistan is a Competitive Authoritarian State mired by a colonial system destined for severe dysfunction every decade or so,when,the Military(primary authoritarian actor) constitutes ‘re-sets’ WITHOUT enabling a transition towards an Independent State(democratic or otherwise)
1/n
Interesting perspective
I'd argue,Pakistan is now beyond such calculus
Pak Military's actions have effectively ended prospects of yet another system 're-set'
Will pen my reasoning, why this is so, also, why Military's inability to re-set is a rare opportunity for re-design
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He served as Pakistan's Finance Minister 3 times(for PMLn & PPP) yet is confused about the role of 'hot money' & 'national debt' in monetary policy
..
Take a moment..contemplate upon it
..
This kind of economic-morons ascend in a patronage system mired with sycophancy & nepotism
PMLN’s Average External Borrowing 2013-18 @ less than 3%. PTI borrowing US$ at 13%, as Hot Money. SBP’s policy rate increased fm PMLN’s 6.25% to 13.25% in a year. Result: Debt Servicing shot up annually by Rs1600B. Monetary Policy collapsed. Imran Niazi says “Economy Stabilised”
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Any 'half-decent' editor would have thrown this out (coupled with a few choice expletives) & asked the researcher to take a basic explainer on how LNG prices work
..
This kind of muck is the reason no one takes Pakistani journalism seriously in the Global Energy Industry
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Since the 1950s, the US remained the dominant external actor in Pakistan & Pak’s Military the dominant internal actor, irrespective of the regime-type.
US sought to ‘control’ key regional policies; if Pak wavered too much, it intervened; a modern ‘subsidiary state’
1/n
The following two threads are based on conversations over the past months with officials & senators in the US regarding the mess that has emerged in Pakistan this year ..
I thank you all for the permission, & in some cases, insistence, to write this publically
1/n
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The fact this is completely lost on a majority of Pak-media/politics commenting on
#SCOSummit
&
#UNGA
is a terrible reflection on what Pakistani journalism/politics has become..& the reason why no-one takes a majority of them seriously in any policy circle.. home or abroad
2/2
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After the initial drill depth is reached, the well is usually capped, drilling contractors handover cuttings (usually cores) for analysis & tests (like UV testing etc) to detect hydrocarbon traces which allows the exploration company to conduct basic appraisal
4/n
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If declared a success, then a full production test in inducted and some hydrocarbon is collected or flared and the well is capped again. The drilling phase is NOW complete & the drill is removed & preparations made to bring in extraction equipment
7/n
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Provided stem-testing is favourable, THEN sensors are lowered to create a detailed record of the strata & consider the viability of the formation.. THIS is the stage when the well is considered to be a success or a failure
6/n
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.""ENDURED"" a VidConf with some key Pak "Thought Leaders"
...
Lessons Learned:
1) Even when facing a Global Pandemic that could kill THEIR OWN family members.. shameless sycophancy, petty politics & confirmation bias were STILL THE MOST important traits among many
..
1/n
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In Pakistan there is an existential need for its aspirational young population to embrace an uncomfortable & unfortunate but UNDISPUTABLE reality.
Embracing this reality, without wish-postulates & hypocrisy, is the first step towards charting any future trajectory.
1/n
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So a mid-ranking US diplomat relayed the US Admin’s displeasure at Pak-US relations & singled out the Pak PM as the obstacle towards any improvement
..
All fine, a touch condescending perhaps, but that’s because Pak isn’t important in US calculus… but fine
1/n
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Nusrat, & others, argued for a reliance on the people of Pakistan, rather than the US.
She argued that herself, Benazir along with the senior PPP cadre should return, face the courts & accept possible imprisonment as well as any other draconian measures the military chose
4/n
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We have been blessed with a new addition to our family.. my son, ‘Rustam Afridi’
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In Pakistan... Even 128 deaths can't take opinion-makers' focus away from the stupid pantomime that's Pakistan's politics.... THIS .. above all else.. shows how pointless it is to talk democracy & human-rights, with such a crowd..
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Take a moment to appreciate Nusrat Ispahani Bhutto.
Like so many of PPP’s older cadre, Nusrat advised, argued & then pleaded with her daughter not to enter into a US-brokered bargain with Pakistan’s Military to facilitate her future Premiership
3/n
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@reema_omer
No "emergency session" was requested.
14/Aug: One permanent member requested August Council Presidency for a "closed consultation" to discuss "India's decision to revoke the special status of Jammu & Kashmir"
15/Aug: Program was "updated" AFTER Presidency consulted other members
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So…
Take a moment…
appreciate the foresight of Nusrat (Ispahani) Bhutto
…
and the faith she had in the power & will of the people of Pakistan to withstand the might of an authoritarian state & stand firm
11/11
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@reema_omer
This consultation is NOT at the request of Pakistan..the procedure for that is different & lengthier
..
This consultation was the specific request of a Permanent Member (China)
..
Two separate requests, by two different states for two different sessions.. best not to confuse that
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Pakistan today would have been a much different country had Nusrat prevailed over Benazir
No lost decade of the 90s …
Nawaz Sharif would not have existed as a political heavyweight …
Politically … no raison d'être … Imran Khan would not have existed at all ..
10/n
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To understand how "dysfunctional" a country Pakistan is... remember... 2 individuals returned & were arrested...its the focus of all.. Right/Leftists,Liberals,Journalists.... Yet "128" people were killed in a terrorist attack on the same day... 128.... Let that sink in
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Those who downplayed the "importance" of the
#MashalKhan
verdict need to look at this pic..
THIS is the environment in which KP police/courts doled out the sentences & took the 1st step towards sanity..
While criticism of the verdict was boisterous, criticism of this mob is muted
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Nusrat firmly believed the people (incl young military officers) would rally around them & their sheer will would force the Generals to relent.
Nusrat, with childish glee, would say
“we have an opportunity to change Pakistan forever”
…
“a true democratic independence”
5/n
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Benazir considered her mother’s point of view “too risky”, “too idealistic”.
Insecure in her position as leader,suspicious of her mother & other senior PPP leaders rooted in the people, Benazir was more comfortable relying on the US rather than the people supporting PPP
6/n
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Something to ponder;
Benazir’s pragmatism is the reason Pakistan failed to reach, almost 40 years ago, the impasse it has reached today.
What if …. Benazir had as much trust, faith & belief in the “people” as she had in US’s influence & the military’s coercive power
9/n
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Benazir repeated the mantra, much too often,as if to reassure herself;
“we must be pragmatic”
That meant relying(not on the people) but the US (who PPP voters believed instigated her father Zulfiqar’s hanging) to ensure compliance of the military (who actually hanged him)
7/n
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At the SCO Summit,nobody of ANY import, had any time to waste on tribe/group semantics.. progress was made on important issues within the bulk of Pak-engagement
Would be surprised if anyone at
#UNGA
bothers with the Fore-Fathers quote either..they'll deal with the bulk again
1/n
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There are some pivotal moments in the history of authoritarian countries when a series of decisions could mean the reinforcement of authoritarianism or a step towards meaningful democracy ..
that was for PPP … much like today is for PTI … one such moment
8/n
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As
@DisinfoEU
laid bare
@ANI
's instrumental role(over 15 years)within Pakistan's 'Narrative Industry', their report is an indictment of PFUJ(Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists) and SAFMA(South Asia Free Media Association) & the functionality of Pakistan's entire Media Industry
REVEALED: Indian Chronicles – how a massive 15-year influence operation successfully targeted the EU & UN with 750+ fake local media and 10+ zombie-NGOs.
Executive Summary & full report:
Here are the facts 👇 (1/n)
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In practical terms another System Re-Set(via manipulated National/Prov elections)are now fruitless & will result neither in stability nor a concerted economic revival
In such an environment,military has no sensible option but to suspend elections for the foreseeable future
1/n
Pakistan is a Competitive Authoritarian State mired by a colonial system destined for severe dysfunction every decade or so,when,the Military(primary authoritarian actor) constitutes ‘re-sets’ WITHOUT enabling a transition towards an Independent State(democratic or otherwise)
1/n
17
68
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Offshore drilling is just a little more complicated than Pakistani politicians,diplomats,ambassadors & (surprisingly) newspaper editors are making it out to be.. Its a process that must run its course before anything “DEFINITIVE” can be declared
1/n
Indus-G Block:
Without making this into an “introduction” to ‘Offshore drilling 101’, let me do this in a very VERY simple way (one we normally take when explaining offshore drilling to “high school” interns who come for a ‘day visit’
1/n
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8th February 2024
Pakistan goes to the polls in probably the most important election in more than fifty years.
The contest?
External & Internal actors’ 'Patronage’
vs
Unbridled people-fuelled ‘Populism’
NOTE: Neither has any strategic plan for Pakistan.
1/n
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With the successful subversion of the political,judicial & constitutional processes & the re-selection process of the next PM & legislature initiated
..
Pakistan’s military takes another step towards re-establishing its complete authoritarian control of Pakistan's governance
1/n
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Pakistan’s Govt itself is now claiming that Pakistan was led by a TERRORIST Organisation for 4 years
Bravo … very intelligent
Let me get this right …
The Govt of a “Nuclear Armed” Pakistan is claiming that the most popular political party in the country is actually a TERRORIST organisation led by Pakistan’s former Prime Minister and someone in the Govt thinks THIS is an INTELLIGENT narrative.
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Discussion on the February 2024 Pakistan Election & its repercussions on the current US-UK strategy for India & the wider region;
Some important quotes (under C-H Rules)
1/n
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Interesting event:
Post-seminar drinks(Central-Asian historians,IR & Security scholars)..
a "PAKISTANI" academic stated ""Afghanistan & India have existed for millennia..Pakistan is a 'Contrived Anomaly'""
Italian historian: "People pay you to teach such garbage?"
1/n
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@reema_omer
The consultation & emergency session requests are DIFFERENT..Best not to conflate the two .. or belittle either..
China's request expressly states that it is in reference to Pakistan's letter to the SC President, perhaps give Pak's diplomatic corp a little credit..
#Causation
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No sense of history
No perspective
No understanding of CAUSALITY
This demonstrates what Macaulayism & teaching fantasy as Pak-Studies did to entire generations
If you don’t teach kids to THINK, then as adults they’re easy prey to ANY fallacy, if it’s presented articulately
Saying Jinnah was right in his predictions about India is misleading. India would probably not be what it has become today if Partition had not happened. The division of the two countries on the basis of religion has justified religious nationalism on both sides of the border.
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14
73
Despite a court room packed with Russell, Ivy & Inns credentials, most, (incl Chief Justice), displayed a rudimentary understanding, if that, of WHY there is a need (& defence) for the ‘separation of powers’ in the ‘joint enterprise of governance’ within a democracy.
2/n
#Systems
3
15
71
a STATE’s primary ALLY’s “consulate” suffered a terror attack claimed by a GROUP ‘openly’ backed by their mutual regional RIVAL..
IF your condemnation DEPENDS on what state/ally/group/rival..you are NOT an Academic/Journalist/Rights-advocate..but a propagandist..
Let that sink in
4
26
68
The very design of Pakistan's entire judicial system, upper & lower, is extremely flawed & deeply partisan.
This is among many reasons why Pakistan’s Judiciary ranks very low on Judicial Independence (WEF)
6/6
2
19
66
Due largely to the military's latest mistakes,Pak stands at the precipice of a rare nation-building opportunity
The environment is conducive for 'redesigning' political,legal & governance sub-systems to enable a transition towards an EVENTUAL emergence of an independent state
2/n
2
18
63
At this juncture..by the constitution.. have the COAS of Pakistan’s Army & the CJCSC of Pak Military have committed treason?
..
If so..does that mean whoever is the PM at the end of the Vote Of No Confidence proceedings should order the removal & arrest of the COAS & CJCSC ?
6/6
2
26
64
Thank you
@ArifCRafiq
for this
China is still working through the prelims for BRI's 15th FYP additions.
So much is yet to be considered and an "exploratory study" by a trade body is quite literally the very beginning
1/n
2
12
62
“It is difficult to remember an instance in Pakistan’s turbulent history where an alliance of the most influential internal [Military] & external [US & UK] actors suffered such a resounding defeat at the hands of the people of Pakistan”
2/n
2
37
63