Steve Everley
@saeverley
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Energy communications and public affairs, @FTIConsulting . @newtgingrich and @AEI alum. Jayhawk. Opinions are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. #OOTT
Arlington, VA
Joined December 2008
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Pinned Tweet
With all the talk about
#gasstoves
and alleged health threats, it's worth providing some background on where the research currently is on this issue, and how the feds suddenly decided these appliances are a health risk.
🧵
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First of all, the largest analysis of any link between gas stoves & childhood asthma (500,000+ children sampled worldwide) found “no evidence of an association between the use of gas as a cooking fuel and either asthma symptoms or asthma diagnosis.”
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How did they arrive at that conclusion? The environment they created involved encasing a kitchen in plastic sheets, removing any ventilation, and then turning on the gas.
No, really. From the study itself.
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So, about that recent controversial study linking
#gasstoves
to childhood asthma...
A lead author now says the study "does not assume or estimate a causal relationship" between childhood asthma and natural gas stoves.
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Moreover, research shows that what you cook accounts for the vast majority of emissions.
For example, olive oil – one of the most common cooking ingredients – generates 17x more emissions than gas stoves.
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That study finding no evidence of a link between gas stoves and asthma is being ignored by most of the groups claiming an inherent health risk. Unfortunately, many in the media are also ignoring it or simply unaware of it.
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So in summary, the recent discussion about a potential ban on
#gasstoves
is not based on just one flawed study. It's based on several, as well as a misreading of a much larger body of research pointing toward another solution entirely.
/end
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Again, this is why ventilation is so important. Even if you mandated an expensive shift from gas to electric, you wouldn't be addressing the largest source of emissions in the kitchen.
This is also why EPA and other agencies have focused on ventilation.
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That's an important piece of info: Numerous studies examining indoor air quality point to ventilation as the most practical solution. Range hoods exist for a reason.
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Another study found that peak NO2 emissions from gas stoves when using even the least effective ventilation fan was 15 ppb, considerably lower than the 100 ppb NAAQS for short-term exposure.
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It should go without saying that an airtight kitchen encased in plastic sheets is not representative of any real-world kitchen that any of us actually use.
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Also of note, the 2020 UCLA study was bankrolled by the Sierra Club, which is running multiple anti-fossil fuel campaigns. The researchers fully disclosed the funding from Sierra Club.
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Of note: the UCLA study linking gas stoves to asthma from 2020 (referenced above) also assumed no ventilation in the kitchen.
Notice a trend here?
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Interestingly, when the UCLA team's data are compared to the correct metric, it shows emissions well below established health standards. See this review of the UCLA paper for more on that.
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So how is it that this alleged "growing body of research" is linking gas stoves to negative health impacts?
In addition to the studies cited above concluding the opposite, let's take a look at some of those recent studies that supposedly support those claims.
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In 2020 UCLA researchers issued a study claiming to link gas stoves to asthma, in which they compared max peak concentrations to averaged standards, which is not a valid comparison. Here are some of the headlines that study generated.
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In January 2022, researchers at Stanford published a study linking gas stoves not only to health hazards but also climate change. Here are the headlines that study generated.
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While the researchers did discover "trace amounts" of VOCs and called it a "hazard identification study," they didn't actually study exposure. As is well known, it's not the presence that determines health risks, but rather the volume/dose of exposure.
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There are many other studies, and proponents of gas stove bans claim they all point to inherent health hazards.
In reality, they paint a far more nuanced picture and really point toward the need for more range hood use (i.e. ventilation) regardless of stove type.
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The presence of benzene or other substance doesn't necessarily mean you're at risk for contracting illnesses associated with that substance. There are varying levels of all sorts of things all around us.
That's why you have to determine what the actual exposure is.
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Another study released in the summer of 2022 claimed a link between residential gas use (i.e. stoves) and potential health risks. Here are the headlines that generated.
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I wonder if the authors are asking for corrections on these headlines?
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Knock me over with a feather.
The campaign to ban
#gasstoves
- even just in "new construction" - is actually an attempt to "stop building our gas infrastructure" altogether.
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With the Biden administration’s decision today to freeze liquefied natural gas (LNG) export approvals based on climate concerns, let’s take a deeper look at the facts and the “evidence” activists used to successfully lobby for this.
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How did we get here?
Last year, Bill McKibben penned an article in the New Yorker highlighting non-peer reviewed research claiming LNG was as much as 274% worse for the climate than coal.
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"Last coal plants in New England to close; renewables take their place"
My prediction is that this headline doesn't age well.
A short 🧵
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President of the Virginia chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics (
@VAPediatricians
) testified this morning in favor of getting kids back in the classroom.
"Our children are decompensating while we debate how to reopen school."
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Big news from the Ninth Circuit. Major implications for gas stove bans across the country.
Berkeley Ban on Natural Gas Hookups Tossed by Ninth Circuit
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This is how ridiculous the coverage of
#gasstove
bans has become.
The
@TODAYshow
says in the *same story* it is "unlikely that gas stoves will be banned anytime soon" but that they are being banned by cities "across the U.S."
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Current Dean of the Colo. School of Public Health "launched a large study in the mid-1980s comparing respiratory illness rates in infants in homes with gas stoves with those without. The study found no statistical difference in illness rates or duration."
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Not really a “surprise”: Wealth leads to less pollution
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In today's installment of "stop claiming they're trying to ban gas stoves," California agencies are considering banning gas stoves.
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Unreal.
The
@TODAYshow
is still amplifying the controversial gas stoves study that relied on a kitchen sealed with plastic sheets, without mentioning that it relied on a kitchen sealed with plastic sheets.
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No one is trying to take away your gas stove, they said.
New York’s plan to ban natural gas includes language to transition homes off gas “even if some customers want to keep their gas stoves or furnaces”
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Not the Onion.
New Jersey lawmakers want to ban natural gas power plants, but with an exemption that allows them to build more natural gas power plants *if they need them to prevent blackouts*
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After a week of news reports trying to scare you about your perfectly normal kitchen appliance, the LA Times reminds us that science says using the range hood is way more appropriate than banning gas stoves.
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In 2023, the campaign to ban
#gasstoves
was brought out of obscurity and into the mainstream.
Despite a full court press from activists, polling shows that voters saw through the tactics and are arguably more opposed to a ban today than they were just 12 months ago.
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Chicago is now considering a ban on gas stoves but remember no one is trying to ban gas stoves
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Notably, Dr. Howarth’s research has been widely panned by the scientific community. Here’s a sampling of the responses to his “shale gas is worth than coal” research a decade ago. Physics has not changed since then.
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The U.N. IPCC, which most consider the gold standard of climate research, has concluded that GHG reductions in the U.S. are a direct result of the switch from coal to gas, and even credited fracking by name.
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Meanwhile, it’s widely acknowledged that natural gas reduces emissions when it replaces coal.
The United States has cut its energy-related emissions by over 8 billion tons since 2006, 4.9 billion tons of which were due to natural gas.
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Remember that controversial study linking
#gasstoves
to childhood asthma?
New research concludes its core findings are "likely to be based" due to numerous flaws, and cautions against using it to create new policies (i.e. bans).
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In 2019 Congress directed the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to modernize its regs and permitting to facilitate more advanced reactors.
The NRC’s proposed reforms make it even *harder* to develop nuclear power.
@TheBTI
has more:
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The LNG freeze won’t impact anything in the near term, they said.
The U.S. will remain the supplier of choice, they said.
They were wrong.
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While still an outlier, the fact that a key "scientific" underpinning of this LNG export pause is being stealth edited along with an evolving media narrative should raise alarm bells.
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The climate advantages of natural gas & LNG exports are well established, and our allies in Europe are depending on U.S. LNG to help them break free of Russian energy.
Signaling a pullback of LNG could have major consequences, geopolitically as well as for the environment.
/end
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It's just a conservative "culture war," they said.
No one is trying to ban gas stoves, they said.
"the New York legislature approved a $229 billion state budget that included a prohibition on gas in most new homes and other construction"
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It’s also worth pointing out: Dr. Howarth’s research has been bankrolled by the Park Foundation, which admitted it is trying to “fuel an army” to oppose fracking.
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The author of that “LNG is worse than coal” research was Dr. Robert Howarth from Cornell.
That’s not surprising. Over the years, Dr. Howarth has been the go-to for research against natural gas.
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Dr. Howarth has also been quietly revising his LNG study. McKibben wrote it showed LNG was 24%-275% worse than coal. Then it was edited down in early Jan. to 18%-185%. Then mysteriously a couple days before Biden’s announcement, he revised it back up to “27% to 2-fold greater”
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The Progressive Policy Institute has concluded: “Studies consistently show that coal-to-liquefied natural gas (LNG) switching provides net greenhouse gas emissions reductions, usually between 40-50%”
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The U.S. is the largest provider of LNG to Europe. If they can’t count on U.S. cargoes for the long term, they will rely on other producers.
This also underscores how a LNG export “pause” doesn’t prevent emissions, it just shifts them overseas.
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The American fracking revolution is one of the most incredible energy stories of our lifetimes.
In 2003, Time magazine ran a story under the headline “Why U.S. Is Running Out of Gas”
20 years later we are the world’s largest exporter of LNG.
THE US BECOMES WORLD'S TOP LNG EXPORTER
🇺🇸🚢🎉
📈 The US exported a record 91 million tons of LNG in 2023, beating Australia and Qatar
👉 Shipments will keep rising in 2024 as new projects start
⚠️ The US only started exporting shale gas as LNG in 2016
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"It will cost $746 on average to heat homes with natural gas this winter, while those who use electric heat can bank on spending around $1,268 on their electricity bills this season, according to the report."
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E&E News reports that the news about a potential gas stove ban from the Consumer Product Safety Commission is not what it appeared to be.
Turns out only one commissioner endorsed that view; the others pushed back.
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Notice the squirrelly framing: just that emissions exist, and the health impacts are implied.
The science actually shows emissions from cooking *in real life scenarios* are well below established health standards.
(Also the replies are amazing.)
The science is clear: Gas stoves are a source of air pollution in your home
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“Gov. Hochul quietly snuck a proposal to outlaw new gas stoves into the ‘New York Housing Compact’ she unveiled during her State of the State speech Tuesday — leaving furious chefs around the city fearing the plan could eighty-six fine dining in the Empire State.”
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Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom
@GavinNewsom
@CAgovernor
orders ban on fracking, phase out of in-state oil drilling. Says "the
#ClimateCrisis
is real
#EnvironmentalJustice
advocates want it to happen faster:
@EENewsUpdates
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A few years ago, the International Energy Agency published a chart showing literally every region of the world seeing CO2 emissions savings from coal-to-gas switching.
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It’s times like these I’m sure folks in New England wished there were an enormous U.S. natural gas field nearby that could be accessed by pipeline.
Oh wait.
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Within a couple of months, the New York Times was following McKibben’s lead and labeling LNG exports a “climate test.”
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A few days letter, a group of Senate Democrats produced a letter arguing against LNG exports touting that same research.
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Remember, there is no gas stove ban on the table…
“DOE rule may block 50% of new gas stoves”
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If we are now in agreement that “we’re not in the climate crisis because of plastic straws” then can we please get them back?
As Earth Day rolls around, don't let corporations fool you – we're not in the climate crisis because of plastic straws, but because of fossil fuels.
The most recent IPCC report was clear: if we don’t drastically cut fossil fuels, the Earth will hit a critical warming threshold.
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"Jamie Dimon said US delays of liquefied natural gas projects were done for political reasons to pacify those who believe oil and gas projects should simply be stopped — a position he calls 'wrong' and 'enormously naïve.'"
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Data centers, electrification, clean tech manufacturing.
The coming surge in electric power demand is real, and ensuring we have adequate supply is going to require a reassessment of where the energy system is currently headed.
🧵
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Headline of the day:
"China's energy transition will be powered by coal"
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The National Energy Technology Laboratory has repeatedly found that U.S. LNG has a clear climate advantage over coal in both Asia and Europe
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EU energy officials have said that U.S. LNG will be needed “for decades” to help them meet demand, especially as they look for alternatives to Russian gas.
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I don't know where people keep getting this wild idea that the feds are trying to ban or restrict gas stoves.
It's a mystery!
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LEFT: Politico's Morning Energy newsletter claims DOE's proposed regulations "never really put gas stoves at risk"
RIGHT: DOE's own analysis saying only "4 percent" of gas stoves would meet its originally proposed standard.
In February 2023, DOE says in its proposed rule for gas stoves that only “4 percent” of gas stove models would meet its standard (p. 206)
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The second largest supplier of LNG to Europe is Qatar.
…Except Qatar just announced it is delaying LNG shipments to Europe due to amid Red Sea hostilities.
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As a reminder, many of the studies in recent years linking gas stoves to health threats relied on dubious methodologies (i.e. encasing kitchens in plastic sheets), were funded by groups pushing gas stove bans, or both.
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With all the talk about
#gasstoves
and alleged health threats, it's worth providing some background on where the research currently is on this issue, and how the feds suddenly decided these appliances are a health risk.
🧵
1/x
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China now looking to roll back its climate policies as it struggles to keep the lights on
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Last year, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken credited a 140+% increase in U.S. LNG exports with helping Europe reduce its reliance on Russian gas by more than half.
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You may not remember it but ten years ago the "ban fracking" crowd was confident the shale revolution was a bubble about to burst.
Today the U.S. supply of recoverable natural gas is at a record high — nearly twice what we had in 2010.
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YouGov survey: “Regardless of the stove you currently have, what type of stove do you prefer?”
Gas is
#1
.
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That means Europe’s two largest suppliers of LNG within a manner of days have each announced delays or pauses to future LNG shipments.
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On the same day the White House announced its new LNG export freeze, the IEA projected major growth in global gas demand, but only limited growth in LNG supply.
Remind me, what happens when demand increases faster than supply?
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Amazing graphic. Peak potential doesn’t align with the local evening power demand peak for either resource, which shows why further buildout of dispatchable storage is so important.
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A brutal cold snap is a great reminder that affordable and reliable energy saves lives.
#PolarVortex
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The feds are rolling out another $500M+ to help local governments ban gas stoves-- err, I mean "update building codes." Because the gas stove ban stuff is just a culture war or something.
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For reference, here’s the news…
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Right now that delay from Qatar looks temporary. But recent reporting suggests the ongoing tensions “could have a significant impact on Europe’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries”
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In January, the Biden administration paused new LNG export permits partly because one weird study claimed natural gas has higher emissions than coal.
White House last week: "Natural gas is roughly half as carbon-intensive as coal."
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“It would not be in the public interest to disclose these materials”
A U.S. Senator literally quoted the document in a public letter already.
I tried to get the infamous Trumka "ban gas stoves" memo but my FOIA was denied.
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Even more amazing is how quickly this happened.
In September 2012 the United States exported 12 million cubic feet of LNG.
In September 2021 we exported 285 billion cubic feet.
That’s an increase of 2.4 million percent.
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Also, the Biden administration -- which is totally, absolutely, 100% not trying to ban gas stoves -- infamously filed an amicus brief in support of Berkeley's authority to ban gas appliances.
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Any rational discussion about equity and equality should acknowledge the importance of energy affordability. Lower energy prices mean not having to choose between groceries or paying bills.
It's hard to overstate the value and significance of America's abundance of low-cost gas.
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A wizard with a magic wand 15 years ago could not have conceived of what has happened in the U.S. with natural gas. It is truly incredible.
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"The U.S. should maximize responsible LNG production and set a global standard, not constrain it. To do otherwise is to fail friends and allies in Asia, including Japan."
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Once again, the claim that "mounting evidence" is linking gas stoves to asthma needs to be scrutinized rather than just casually reprinted.
Mostly because it's not true.
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Having failed to convince voters that gas stoves should be banned, activists have decided they will now start harassing sales associates at Home Depot and Best Buy
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Lawmaker tells
@CBSNews
“no one wants to ban gas stoves.”
He’s right — if you exclude local and state governments in California, Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Washington.
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But as years of data show us, the region depends more on natural gas today than it ever has.
Closing a couple of coal plants isn't likely to change that. If anything, it may ultimately increase reliance on gas.
/end
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New Gallup poll shows what Americans consider the top problems facing the country.
Shockingly, gas stoves did not make the list.
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Wow.
NJ environmental officials, as part of a rulemaking to phase out natural gas, said in December that electric boilers cost 4.2-4.9% more than gas.
In a correction issued last week, they admitted electric is actually 4.2-4.9 *times* the cost of gas.
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