Gaurav Rastogi
@rustapharian
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if you don’t know, now you know @kuvera_in
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Pinned Tweet
Given my investing background at Morgan Stanley people assume I do a lot of single stocks, F&O etc
Can't be farther from truth.
I run my own asset allocation strategy, 100% in index MFs via
@Kuvera_In
, re-balance 1-2 / year, and don't track markets incessantly!
16
3
58
I run a monthly SIP of Rs 3 lakhs. I am doing my bit and calling everyone to
#SkipYourSIP
and
1/ Donate to covid efforts, some links below.
2/ Pay extra to house help and others who need it
3/ Add to your emergency fund if it is running low
Our SIPs can always start later.
33
268
2K
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 17,859.
Weekly sentiment poll
+1,000 pts to 18,859
525
-1,000 pts to 16,859
264
6
33
496
This data is gold.
No AMC or AMFI would be expected to ever publish this - even though they all have this data.
Kudos SEBI
And if you invest, keep your investment costs as low as possible.
23
104
428
So much hoopla about WhatsApp sharing data with fb and there are startups in India asking for read access to your entire email and getting away with it.
Think about that.
10
57
410
Big overnight moves in US markets
#NASDAQ100
#SPX500
A historical context on what could lie ahead for global markets.
1/n
Since 1985, this is the 67th instance that Nasdaq100 fell -5% or more in a single day. So a -5% or worse move is rare.
2
29
344
So
#oilprice
is crashing because of a "supply-side" price war.
How is that anything but good news for the global economy?
In a price war, the buyer wins. Buyers will have surplus cash to be deployed elsewhere. It is akin to a giant stimulus.
#counterpoint
45
75
316
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 17,854.
Weekly sentiment poll.
+1,000 pts to 18,854
437
-1,000 pts to 16,854
277
6
17
287
Before you fall for this headline, 10x in 20 years is ~12% p.a returns.
Large cap index did ~14% in the same time period. Small cap would be higher.
Real insight - don’t go shopping for stocks. Buy index.
11
41
259
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 17,807.
Weekly sentiment poll
+1000 pts to 18,807
237
-1000 pts to 16,807
249
2
14
243
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 18,027.
Weekly sentiment poll
+1,000 pts to 19,027
379
-1,000 pts to 17,027
252
2
12
213
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 18,105.
Weekly sentiment poll
+1,000 pts to 19,105
273
-1,000 pts to 17,105
180
3
14
200
Investing Rs 50K in NPS Tier 1 every year is a no-brainer.
28
14
215
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 17,956.
Weekly sentiment poll
+1,000 pts to 18,956
223
-1,000 pts to 16,956
137
2
13
201
📢 Excited to join
@CRED_club
to build
@kuvera_in
with a joint vision of transparency, investor trust, and long-term wealth creation.
Let's hit it out of the park
@kunalb11
& CRED team 🚀
A special thanks to
@Gastrojourneys
and
@FISV_
for believing in us 🙏
1/2
36
14
198
Switching from Direct to Regular plan or Regular to Direct plan of the same Mutual Fund scheme should not incur any capital gains tax.
Do you agree?
Yes
218
No
44
4
22
183
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 17,604.
Weekly sentiment poll.
+1,000 pts to 18,604
198
-1,000 pts to 16,604
242
2
16
166
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 17,594
Weekly sentiment poll.
+1,000 pts to 18,594
342
-1,000 pts to 16,594
177
2
17
164
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 17,100
Weekly sentiment poll.
+1,000 pts to 18,100
253
-1,000 pts to 16,100
230
3
9
157
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 17,599
Weekly sentiment poll.
+1,000 pts to 18,599
273
-1,000 pts to 16,599
182
3
13
152
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 17,856
Weekly sentiment poll.
+1,000 pts to 18,856
279
-1,000 pts to 16,856
181
2
12
141
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 17,465
Weekly sentiment poll.
+1,000 pts to 18,465
222
-1,000 pts to 16,465
197
7
14
140
In a bull market ;)
3
2
143
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 16,945
Weekly sentiment poll.
+1,000 pts to 17,945
177
-1,000 pts to 15,945
184
2
7
118
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 17,944
Weekly sentiment poll.
+1,000 pts to 18,944
162
-1,000 pts to 16,944
100
2
8
121
What level will
#nifty50
see first?
Nifty 50 last close 17,359
Weekly sentiment poll.
+1,000 pts to 18,359
243
-1,000 pts to -16,359
175
2
4
108
1/n
#YES
bank, some thoughts and views.
This is a communication failure. You don't impose a moratorium on a major bank without a clear end game.
Markets hate uncertainty.
It will create panic. RBI's goal should be to not create unnecessary panic.
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28
94
1/n
There is a SIP investor who is very disciplined.
One month the market crashes because of a global pandemic. His market timing neighbours come to visit. “Such bad luck,” they say.
“Maybe,” replies the SIP investor.
12
15
80
#smallcap
is a great way to make money but you need to manage one thing.
Behavioural gap.
Most of small cap buying happens in the marked areas post out performance. And based on what we saw in 2018, most of it does not survive the drawdown afterwards.
4
12
80
Thoughts on EOP.
Direct plans will NOT become more expensive.
Why is that?
Read on
cc
@Kuvera_In
@ActusDei
11
26
78
Direct plans were launched 10 years ago. They are already 46% of AUM.
The early adopters were the smart money UHNI, HNI, corporates and Govt as they don’t want to pay annual commissions.
Retail is following now. Watch this space.
#MutualFund
#DIRECT
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13
70
On the bright side I haven’t seen so many trust the govt GDP numbers so readily in a long time...
4
10
61
Riddle me this,
I have a strategy (backtest) that makes 25% p.a. 🤯
As a hedge fund, I can charge a 2% fixed + 20% of returns as fees.
Still, I will sell this strategy signal as a thematic basket for less than 10k per year to you?
Why do people fall for this? Views?
23
9
61
I hope two things change for us.
We ask administrators at all levels tough questions and hold them accountable.
We start paying taxes and not bribes.
5
8
57
If you can, edit your SIPs and add 5-10% to your SIP amount today.
Better than tracking markets every single day for BTFD.
1
8
54
Avg Mutual Fund portfolio XIRR for my peers (40-45 yrs) on
@Kuvera_In
is 12.55%.
A stock portfolio (avg holding less than 1Y) would need ~14.5% after STCG tax to match. Ex-cost would need ~16%
What % of traders make more than 14.5% / 16% p.a?
Ask your broker for this data.
Before you fall for this headline, 10x in 20 years is ~12% p.a returns.
Large cap index did ~14% in the same time period. Small cap would be higher.
Real insight - don’t go shopping for stocks. Buy index.
11
41
259
13
9
54
I have been a reader and supporter of The Marginalian and highly recommend their content. It is hard to imagine that this is one person's
@brainpicker
labour of love for 16 years - an outstanding example of compounding that I have seen unfold.
1
10
53
@sentimentrader
You should look at fund flows relative to QQQ market cap. A 3-4 bn fund flow today is prob the same as a 0.75 to 1 bn then.
3
3
44
People are afflicted by the “spotlight effect” and how people judge them may cause a lot of discomfort.
The harder and more violent truth could be…
2
6
45
The four stages of gajar ka halwa slow cooked over 8 hours.
😋
7
2
43
2/n
#UnintendedConsequences
50k withdrawal restriction is presumably to prevent run on the bank and buy time.
Depositors don't like arbitrary restrictions. Every depositor will withdraw 50k.
It will create a mini-run. I hope they are prepared.
1
2
38
RTPCR test experience travelling SG <-> IN.
Singapore: Take 2 hours off work, queue, pay $100, expect results in 30 - 36 hours
India: Lab tech comes to office, pay $10, expect results in 12 - 14 hours
2
7
39
The non-fiction books I recommended and gifted the most this year.
A few of these will make the list next year as well :)
2
2
40
This is the right analysis. Switch is beneficial from year 1.
@Kuvera_In
we recommend investors to switch to direct asap and in one shot for this reason.
Also a reminder why fin analysis is hard. It’s the simple stuff - tax, cost, churn etc - that usually trips people up.
@ActusDei
Your analysis completely missed the point that you will have to pay LTCG tax after switching too, the day you need to liquidate the funds.
Switching to direct plans is worth it from day 1, post-tax.
4
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3
9
40
First jab done. I am officially part of the clinical data now :)
2
0
38
Index adoption amongst
@Kuvera_In
users.
This is going to accelerate fast in the next 10 years.
#Index
4
6
38
All lovely people here we are hiring EM / VP Engg roles at
@kuvera_in
Please do spread the word and help us out. You will get good karma and if we end up hiring your friend you get an Airpod Max (or similar), no kidding :)
#fintech
#hiring
More details in the thread...
5
18
34
Every small bit adds up. I would hope all my friends in the MF industry would promote
#SkipYourSIP
as fervently as they promote start a SIP.
Over Rs 8,000 crores get invested via SIPs every month. A meaningful redirection can change the course of the next few months.
3
2
35
99 problems but Money ain’t one.
Check out
0
3
34
3/n
#WhatShouldTheyHaveDone
Get everyone in a room, and come out only with a complete solution (bailout, buyout whatever).
Has been done before by Volcker and JPMorgan.
Cannot play this out in the public domain over days. Crucial trust is lost in the banking system.
1
6
30
The backtests that never ever had a losing year / month, remind me of this…
0
7
32
The average investors MF portfolio XIRR in my peer group is under 6%. A thread of lessons 🧵
You can check your returns at
@Kuvera_In
10
4
31
Hidden somewhere in the budget doc and unearthed by
@ActusDei
🙇🏽♂️
What happens to direct international investing now?
If you send Rs 10,000 to be invested in equities abroad only Rs 8,000 will get invested. Rs 2,000 will be held back as TCS. Huge friction.
TCS on LRS raised from 5% to 20% (exception LRS for education). Minimum threshold of 7 lakh gone.
4
2
23
5
17
31
The mother of all bull cases.
883 million Indians will enter middle class this decade. Globally 1 out of 2 people entering middle class this decade will be Indian.
HT:
@JPMorganAM
2
8
30
@Squareprismish
Yeah, the entire oil nexus to keep oil prices artificially high for ages was to avoid poverty in small countries and not to earn supernormal oligopoly profits by a handful of countries. Som spin this is 🤣
2
2
26
There are only two times when one should not stop a SIP.
One, when markets are going up, and two when markets are going down.
1
10
29
Singapore 5pm IST yesterday. As forwarded.
Phir bhi dil hai hindustani.
2
2
27
China has underperformed massively. Chinese indices are at single / low digits earning multiples.
There are at least two mutual funds that provide access to China to Indian investors. However, see no interest in them at all.
Timing is indeterminate, but this will revert.
6
4
28
A shout out to the team - past & present, specially Neelabh,
@sau_pan
and
@suraj99p
for making this possible.
And thank you to the lakhs of
#HappyKuverians
. Every feedback, every cheer, every share and all your encouragement has helped us get to where we are.
2/2
3
4
27
US stocks beta launched, in partnership with Vested. Seamlessly link existing account to Kuvera too.
Diversify and invest in US stocks at the lowest cost.
#WhereTheSmartInvestorsAre
@kuvera_in
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