Rush Doshi
@RushDoshi
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Director of the CFR China Strategy Initiative • Assistant Professor at Georgetown • Biden NSC China 2021-2024 • Author of The Long Game
Washington, DC
Joined December 2011
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Pinned Tweet
In today's
@nytopinion
, I argue that there is a bipartisan consensus on China but that Trump is outside it.
If he returns, he will again undermine it by putting self-interest first.
That could cost the US the decisive decade in the competition.
Thread and link below:
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China is emerging as a global public goods provider as the US proves unable and unwilling to lead.
This is an important development, and if the trend continues, it’s one with potentially serious consequences for the US role in the world.
In a call between the two foreign ministers, China agreed to supply Italy with 1,000 ventillators and 2 million masks. Additionally, they are donating (!) them 100k respirators, 20k protective suits, and 50k test kits as part of "massive aid" package.
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Serbian President: "The only country that can help us is China."
“By now, you all understood that European solidarity does not exist. That was a fairy tale on paper. I believe in my brother and friend Xi Jinping, and I believe in Chinese help."
1/
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It’s time to ban Zhao Lijian from Twitter.
Rarely has one PRC official done so much damage to the US-China relationship. He’s actively complicating any kind of cooperative approach on coronavirus. And of course, he’s spreading disinformation.
China’s official disinfo campaign shows no sign of abating. Here a foreign ministry spokesman re-ups the hoax that the coronavirus might have started in the US
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This statement from China’s ambassador to the UK amounts to saying, “Accept Huawei or you’ll become our enemy.”
If this kind of threat is common *before* the PRC is deeply embedded in the UK’s critical infrastructure, it’s pretty clear how they’ll act *after*.
China wants to be UK’s friend and partner. But if you treat China as a hostile country, you would have to bear the consequences. To quote Dr Zbigniew Brzezinski: If we treat China like an enemy, they will become an enemy. It’s up to UK side to decide what they want in the end.
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Logging on for the first time in months to share some exciting news!
My first book, The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order, will be out July 8, 2021.
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Excited to share a new piece in FP!
I argue ODNI's claim that China prefers Trump "not win reelection" tells only half the story.
Party texts show China believes Trump is accelerating US decline.
This has triggered a new phase in PRC grand strategy.
1/
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By publicly punishing the Houston Rockets, the PRC may have scored an own goal.
They’ve raised public awareness of the myriad ways the PRC effectively censors the speech of US citizens.
People didn’t really know that was happening. Now they do, and they don’t seem to like it.
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“Reincarnation must comply with Chinese laws & regulations”
- Deputy Director General, Information Department, PRC MFA
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“Wisconsin Senate President Roth received two emails from Chinese consulate staff asking that he pass a resolution they wrote supporting China’s battle against COVID-19 praising China’s response to the virus.”
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Beijing sent a list of 14 grievances to Australia supposedly justifying its economic coercion against it.
The list is revealing.
It shows the PRC holds countries responsible for their free *civil societies* & serves as a template for illiberal order-building.
Some thoughts: 1/
Beijing has issued an extraordinary attack on the Australian government, accusing it of "poisoning bilateral relations" in a deliberately leaked document that threatens to escalate tensions between the two countries
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Today is the launch date for my first book, The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order!
The book covers the evolution of China’s grand strategy from the end of the Cold War to the present.
It's also number 1 in IR new releases!
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It's pretty remarkable that China may be able to position itself as the global leader in the coronavirus fight after (1) covering up the disease; (2) lying about its origins; (3) buying up surplus supplies; and (4) delaying the intl response.
And yet...
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Big deal today. The US, Canada, and Finland just launched an allied industrial policy effort on icebreakers: "ICE Pact"
The US needs icebreakers.
- Russia has 30+.
- China has 3 and is building more.
- The US basically has 1.
ICE Pact aims to fix that.
A few details:
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Some good news: 3M is now producing 1 million N95 masks *in the US* a day.
But:
1) Official estimates say we need 1 billion+ masks to handle this crisis, and 3M won't get us near that;
2) It'll take 12 months to double capacity.
We still need industrial mobilization.
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Vance is right that America needs to bring back manufacturing.
But that’s a reason to support Harris.
The data is clear.
- Manufacturing spending is skyrocketing.
- TSMC is making chips in America.
- Record energy production.
The Biden-Harris industrial policy is working.
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Excited to share a new piece with Kurt Campbell in
@ForeignAffairs
!
It argues that China is racing to be seen as the global leader of the coronavirus response as the US falters.
China knows that orders can change gradually at first, then all at once.
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But wait, there’s more.
“Chinese representatives tried to influence German government officials to give positive comments about Beijing's management of the coronavirus outbreak, Germany's Die Welt newspaper reported Sunday.”
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Just wanted to share that I’ve stepped down from the Brookings Institution & Yale’s China Center. I’ll also be Tweeting a bit less here starting today.
I’m grateful for the opportunity to serve and thrilled to be working alongside so many friends and colleagues.
Brookings Foreign Policy experts
@HadyAmr
@ChhabraT
@RushDoshi
Avril Haines
@Jenkinsbd
@MollyMontgomery
Victoria Nuland
@junghpak1
@A_Sloat
&
@ZachVertin
selected to join Biden administration in leadership roles.
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This is terrific news.
“Britain is seeking to forge an alliance of ten democracies to create alternative suppliers of 5G equipment and other technologies to avoid relying on China...a ‘D10’ club based on the G7 + Australia, South Korea & India.”
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We need a through review of why the US lacks the industrial capacity to make masks, antibiotics, or medical equipment to protect its own people or to help others.
Manufacturing capacity in these sectors is a domestic & intl public good.
And we need policies to restore it.
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This is laughable, but the message is deadly serious: Australians, and other foreigners in China, need to leave.
The risk that they might become victims of Beijing’s next round of “hostage diplomacy” is growing.
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China’s global tech ambitions would have been dramatically accelerated with the Indian market.
It was almost a tech “swing state.”
But with bans on these apps and new restrictions on Huawei, that strategy is seriously imperiled.
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Seems India’s dependence on the PRC isn’t excessive.
1) Only 5% of Indian exports go to China.
2) Most imports from China could eventually be diversified, including APIs and some electronics.
3) PRC capital is great but not essential; many want to invest in India.
Of India's total imports, over 14% comes from China. We depend on China for everything from vehicle accessories to antibiotics & pesticides. Many Indian unicorns also have a Chinese investor. So an economic boycott is unfeasible.
@vinuthewriter
@vrsrini
@NareshVelu
@i_sumantsen
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After 3+ years at the NSC, it's hard to believe that Monday was my last day.
It was the privilege of a lifetime to serve there - at this time, for this president, and under this NSA - and to do so alongside the most dedicated public servants I've met.
A little on my next steps
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Very excited that my book, The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order, is under contract with
@OUPPolitics
& part of Jim's
@BtGProjectDC
series!
The book focuses on PRC grand strategy from the end of the Cold War to the present day.
It'll be out in 2021!
Really excited to announce that
@RushDoshi
book The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order is under contract for our
@BtGProjectDC
@OUPPolitics
book series!
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PRC Eastern Theater Command just announced exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
Lai dialed back his 10/10 speech from his inaugural.
So China is validating those who say no matter what Taiwan does, no matter what Lai does, they will escalate.
Not a wise policy.
The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on Monday organized its troops of army, navy, air force and rocket force to conduct “Joint Sword-2024B” drills in the Taiwan Strait and the north, south and east of the island of Taiwan, said a
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Excited to share that
@BrookingsFP
has published the full introduction from my book, The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order!
You can it read it here.
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This viral post gets a lot wrong.
1) This post is false — MFA DG Yang Tao saw Blinken off.
2) The treatment was reciprocal — when FM Wang Yi visited in October 2023, DAS Mark Lambert saw him off.
3) The debate is silly — Blinken had a bilateral meeting with President Xi.
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Why is
@YouTube
censoring terms critical of the CCP — “共匪” and “五毛” — on its platform here in the United States and worldwide?
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Concern about PRC excess capacity isn’t only a Western phenomenon.
The Global South is worried too.
“Indonesia will impose safeguard duties of 100% to 200% on [PRC] imports ranging from footwear to ceramics to protect domestic industries.”
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China’s Embassy in Sri Lanka demands that “freedom of speech must be honored” after its Twitter account is briefly suspended.
All without any apparent sense of irony.
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Huge thanks to Hu Xijin for the reminder that ethnic Indians (like me) have a "fragile and capricious mentality." Sadly, I will be late in performing my self-criticism since I must first score 50 points in the Study Xi Strong Country app today (and everyday). Please forgive me.
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Pretty remarkable outreach effort, if true:
“The Indian government reached out to more than 1,000 companies in the U.S. and through overseas missions to offer incentives for manufacturers seeking to move out of China, according to Indian officials.”
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Biden campaign spokesman Andrew Bates on Xinjiang:
“The unspeakable oppression that Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities have suffered at the hands of China’s authoritarian government is genocide and Joe Biden stands against it in the strongest terms.”
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A few months ago, when India was a “tech swing state,” the US encouraged it to ban Huawei.
Now, Indian MP’s like tech entrepreneur
@rajeev_mp
are urging the US to ban TikTok to ensure democracies shape the internet.
Remarkable to see India lead the conversation on PRC tech.
This is good step if US does it. This is more than just banning Chinese apps, its abt the future of Technology n Internet remaing wth open democracies.
@SecPompeo
U.S. looking at banning Chinese social media apps, including
@tiktok_us
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Excited to share that I've been named a joint Fellow between Brookings - where I'll direct our new China Strategy Initiative - and Yale's Paul Tsai China Center.
Grateful to have the opportunity to keep working with & learning from incredible colleagues at both institutions!
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Extraordinarily grateful to have had the opportunity to testify on the China challenge before the
@SenateCommerce
Subcommittee on Security this morning.
My written submission was on "The US, China, & the Fourth Industrial Revolution" -
A few points: 1/
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“China is complex” is not a good response to the fact that millions of Uyghurs are in detention camps right now.
.
@frankelly08
“We've got Chinese military rounding up hundreds of blindfolded and bound Uyghur Muslims for detention camps. A lot of people are asking - is it smart to get more entwined with the very same Chinese military?”
@RichardMarlesMP
“China is complex”
#Insiders
#auspol
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Yes, Italy will pay China for these supplies, but the fact China can uniquely provide them and is willing to do so during a time of scarcity has political implications as well.
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China is accusing the US military of spreading coronavirus.
This isn't leadership.
Per
@JoshuaDummer
, its MFA spokesman and its diplomats in the Maldives, Botswana, South Africa, Suriname, Iran, France, Jordan, Chad, Uganda, Pakistan, Cameroon, etc echoed this lie.
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Some big news! On June 24, we're launching CFR's new China Strategy Initiative with an event featuring:
- Kurt Campbell
- Matt Pottinger
-
@ElbridgeColby
- Bonny Lin
-
@stephenwertheim
- Maher Bitar
- Tarun Chhabra
-
@nakashimae
Sign up here! ->
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Excited to share my response to Matt Pottinger and Mike Gallagher's good faith critique of Biden China policy.
It's now out in
@ForeignAffairs
.
You can also read their reply to me and other critics.
A few thoughts on where we disagree, and more importantly, where we agree:
How should U.S. policymakers deal with the challenge that China poses to the United States? Six experts—
@RushDoshi
,
@jessicacweiss
, James Steinberg,
@PaulJHeer
, Matt Pottinger, and Mike Gallagher—weigh in:
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Jiang Zemin once debated Bill Clinton on Chinese national television over the Tiananmen Square massacre, the Dalai Lama, human rights, etc.
In contrast, this...is not exactly the hallmark of a great power.
The CNN feed in China the moment debate turned to China.
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Excited to share that The Long Game has won the Edgar S. Furniss Award for a first book that makes an exceptional contribution to the understanding of international security!
And particularly grateful to join a group of past recipients who include so many friends and mentors.
Just announced! The Edgar S. Furniss Book Award for 2021 goes to The Long Game by
@RushDoshi
from
@OxUniPress
.
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CBS has censored a TV show in the *United States* for fear of offending censors in Beijing.
China’s censorship has de facto extra-territorial reach that extends even here to the US market. That means less powerful countries are even more constrained. 1/
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President Trump has given his "blessing" to a deal that prioritizes corporate cronyism and rent-seeking over questions of data, security, and information-influence.
It's a bad deal secured through a bad process.
It should be scrapped.
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If the quote is accurate, seems China is now explicitly and publicly threatening Germany’s auto exports over Huawei.
If Germany concedes here, it’ll only make things worse — emboldening the PRC while offering it new forms of leverage over Germany.
At
@handelsblatt
event, Chinese ambassador Wu issues clear threat to Germany:
„If you decide to exclude Huawei this will have consequences. You sell million cars per year in China. We may also declare them unsafe“. (from min 26).
Gloves are off.
#5G
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I testified today before the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee.
I covered PRC national security laws and the conflicts of interest they can create for US companies, particularly in consulting and tech.
Testimony below and a quick thread to follow.
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Absolutely disgraceful — the Telegraph blasts out PRC propaganda on Xinjiang.
No reference in the title to this being part of an advert from the China Daily.
You’ll only see that *after* you’ve clicked the link.
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China’s messaging on the National Security Law is preposterous.
The PRC can’t credibly say “it’ll be applied narrowly” when its own propaganda organs are screaming the quiet part out loud and threatening to use the law against HK private citizens & free media.
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The PRC does what it accuses AUS of doing. It:
- limits foreign investment
- limits foreign involvement in its politics
- erects visa barriers
- treats journalists far worse
- condemns other governments
- has antagonistic media
- limits provincial foreign policy freelancing
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Grateful to share this piece on China's info ops in Taiwan.
What happens in Taiwan matters, and I argue PRC efforts there are now going global.
The piece draws from a forthcoming Brookings report on China's worldwide info efforts.
A few key points:
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*None of this* excuses China’s coverup of the coronavirus.
But the CCP is working hard to turn the narrative, and a few months from now when more countries are in Italy’s situation, these gestures will mean even more.
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Just five years ago the US organized the Ebola response.
Now, China is pushing an open door because the US is AWOL.
Whether China succeeds in its desire to claim crisis leadership will ultimately be determined more by policy in DC, not Beijing. We still have agency.
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An old view was that China used econ coercion when core interests had been crossed. That's outdated.
The list is also notable in other respects:
1) It is hypocritical
2) It expects AUS to give up sovereignty in key areas
3) It punishes AUS for the actions of its citizens
3/
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Chen Weihua attacked Greta Thunberg yesterday and today called for violence in US cities.
All this *after* the WSJ reported a Tweet by Zhao Lijian provoked a tougher US China policy.
Always surprising these Tweets aren’t vetted given the damage they do to the PRC.
@ewong
Hope there will be more petrol bomb throwing mobs in protests in the US. Endorsed by NYT.
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Notable that Zhao has gone from Twitter troll to MFA Spokesman.
Strongest evidence yet of the more combative turn in China’s public diplomacy.
After completing 4 years as Deputy Chief of Mission in Pakistan, I have been appointed as Foreign Ministry Spokesman & Deputy Director General, Information Department. With the new capacity, I will try my best to tell the story of China. I’ll continue to count on your support!
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China is not obligated to trade with AUS, but that misses an interesting point.
The deployment of coercive economic leverage to shape AUS internal behavior is a kind illiberal of order-building.
This list is a partial guide to the norms of that illiberal order.
/End
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China’s own government documents reveal the first cases were detected at least as early as November.
China has been updating the US on the coronavirus and its response since Jan. 3. On Jan. 15 the US State Department notified Americans in China US CDC's warning about the coronavirus. And now blame China for delay? Seriously?
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The PRC is threatening action against EU wine & dairy if the EU takes action against PRC turbines & EVs
For many, the message is:
- the EU shouldn’t take steps to retain manufacturing against PRC market distortions
- it should instead export commodities (and deindustrialize)
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Excited to share a new piece with Kurt Campbell in
@ForeignAffairs
!
The US is entering its 5th wave of declinist handwringing in the last century, but fatalism is premature.
The China challenge, handled prudently, could spur renewal.
A few thoughts:
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If China is seriously tossing out all reporters from the NYT, WSJ, and Washington Post, it’s an enormous mistake — particularly in a pandemic — and cuts against their pretensions to lead.
Even the Soviets saw the value of having international journalists in country.
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“Admiral Wu made clear that he thought the United States would have a more forceful reaction when China began its island-building.”
Raises the possibility that a tepid US response that fell below PRC expectations may have emboldened Beijing rather than stabilized the region.
First public evidence I've seen that Chinese military leadership expected pushback from US during its island-building campaign, and when it did not, proceeded ahead. Via
@NBRnews
Special Report by Adm. Greenert h/t
@SCS_Disputes
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The PRC threatened the daughter of an Australian journalist because they didn’t like his reporting
“We were instructed to report to a facility in north Beijing and told to bring my daughter who was 14 at the time as she was now part of the investigation.”
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We let this capacity atrophy. And that decision warrants scrutiny and swift reversal.
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To clarify, my first tweet in this thread is not a celebration of the CCP as a public goods provider but a lamentation that the US is struggling to occupy that role because of industrial erosion.
All this has domestic and geopolitical consequences, like US dependence on the PRC.
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This is a huge deal, particularly given the specific chips they’ll manufacture.
“TSMC’s new plant would make chips branded as having 5-nanometer transistors, the tiniest, fastest and most power-efficient ones manufactured today.”
NEW: Taiwan's TSMC is set to announce plans to build an advanced chip factory in Arizona as U.S. concerns grow about dependence on Asia for the critical tech. Just weeks ago, Intel said it wanted to build a plant with the Pentagon
w
@bobdavis187
@asafitch
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This by the way isn’t a misstatement but an actual policy that’s been repeatedly phrased in precisely these terms — and with no apparent sense of absurdity.
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Seems a lot of this is based on China’s ability to provide the material goods needed to fight the crisis. 2/
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Some of these complaints ask AUS to effectively surrender partial sovereignty.
The PRC is saying Australia must:
- allow states like Victoria to run their own FP
- allow PRC interference in politics
- allow Huawei access
- not restrict investment
- not report cyberattacks
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The list is long:
- Investment scrutiny
- Huawei
- Interference legislation
- Visas
- COVID inquiry
- HR criticism
- SCS stance
- Spreading US "disinformation"
- BRI disinterest
- Think tanks
- PRC journalists
- Reporting cyber attacks
- CCP criticism
- Media
2/
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The Biden Administration just announced tariffs on certain PRC imports.
It’s a smart step and not intended to be escalatory:
-Tailored: It hits $18 billion of imports
- No Surprises: Blinken & Yellen signaled this in Beijing
- Phased: Many tariffs start in ‘25 and ‘26
1/
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And this comes on the heels of an entire
@SouthPark
episode on the very same theme — the PRC’s de facto extra-territorial censorship.
Appears this issue is fast rising in the public consciousness.
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Some of these are punishments for civil society's actions, not the government's:
- think tank research
- media criticism
- criticism by individual officials
We've seen this before in China's punishment of Norway and Sweden.
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Today, the Dutch government released its China strategy, which was in the works for a year. The full 100-page document hasn't been translated yet, but the summary and FM's speech on have been. They're sensible and fascinating.
A few highlights: 1/
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India bans TikTok and 58 other Chinese apps.
China’s adventurism on the border continues to cost it access to India’s market.
In a significant move, the Indian govt, w/o naming China, has banned 59 [Chinese] mobile apps "which are prejudicial to sovereignty and integrity of India, defence of India, security of state and public order" [no. 1 on the list:
#TikTok
]
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Excited to share our report from
@CNASdc
on China's Belt and Road!
We go beyond the usual cases (Sri Lanka, Maldives) to focus on 10 PRC projects across 7 regions & 6 sectors, from facial recognition in Zimbabwe to a wharf in Vanuatu.
Some takeaways: 1/
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For an international organization to demand a self-criticism like this is stunning.
I didn’t think ICAO could surprise anymore, but I was wrong.
This is amazing. I got blocked by ICAO’s Twitter account for pointing out that it was blocking people criticising it. They suggested sending an email requesting to be unlocked. So I did. The result: they’ll consider unlocking me if I perform what is basically a self-criticism:
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The PRC almost never launched exercises after past transits, inaugural addresses, or 10/10 speeches.
Now it does. That is a change in the status quo.
The lesson it risks sending is: even when you are restrained, we will not be.
Is that wise for managing this issue?
@RushDoshi
What you described a “dial back” is still a major provocation compared to the status quo during Ma Ying-jeou years, not to mention the countless changes of status quo by the Biden admin. So no more tricks. Taiwan is part of China. Period.
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An addendum. I've been following the "China as a public goods provider" story for much of the crisis *not* to amplify PRC propaganda but to alert US analysts and scholars of the high stakes for the US global position.
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President Trump told Xi concentration camps were fine, a crackdown in Hong Kong was fine, and that Xi was doing a fine job on COVID-19.
There’s just no China card for the Vice President to play.
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Mulan is likely to prove a significant and entirely avoidable public relations disaster for Disney.
And rightly so.
To make Mulan, Disney worked with four propaganda departments in the Chinese region of Xinjiang, the site of a genocide against Muslims, and the Xinjiang public security bureau. This is a horrific. Here's my article on the subject, and a thread on why.
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Fu Ying: "From the Chinese perspective, the U.S. has never given up its intent to overthrow the socialist system led by the Communist Party of China."
This view is a key reason why efforts to "reassure" Beijing are unlikely to succeed. Ideological distance shapes everything.
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This slide shows US great power competitors as a percentage of US GDP. Underscores how fundamentally different US-China competition is from past great power challenges to the US — even if China were to enter a “Brezhnev stagnation” under Xi or an economic crisis.
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This incredible piece is relentless and damning.
For those who dismiss Huawei’s theft with the “Tappy” case (i.e., “that’s all anyone has!), this shows a culture of IP theft that spanned everything from standard essential patents to cameras to music.
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It was the greatest privilege to work for President Biden.
He pulled us out from COVID, made historic investments in our competitiveness, strengthened our alliances, and restored dignity to the office.
Now, he’s taught us what patriotism looks like.
A truly historic legacy.
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A leaked Chinese propaganda guidance obtained by
@CDT
provides some very unique insights about PRC preferences, strategy, and public opinion management for the US-China trade war. Everyone should read it. Here are 6 quick takeaways:
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Outrageous but entirely expected that China’s propaganda organs show not even the slightest bit of contrition about the country’s export of sub-standard masks, test kits, respirators, etc.
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Excited to announce that the
@BrookingsInst
Global China project is publishing 11 papers today on China's role in global governance and norms.
The papers span human rights, democracy, climate, energy, gender, and regional & global multilateralism.
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Excited that FP and OUP have agreed to publish an excerpt of my book, The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order!
The piece traces the CCP's nationalist orientation back to the patriotic ferment of the late Qing decline.
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China steps in and assists Italy where the US cannot and the EU chooses not too.
It’s still early, but all this could have concerning political implications for US/Western leadership if iterated across other crisis zones in coming months.
Italy asked to activate EU mechanism for supply of medical equipment: “Unfortunately, not a single EU country responded to the Commission’s call. Only China responded bilaterally. Certainly, this is not a good sign of European solidarity.”
#coronavirus
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Thrilled to share that The Long Game is a finalist for the Lionel Gelber Prize alongside these truly great books!
We are pleased to announce the finalists for the 2022 Lionel Gelber Prize. For all of the details about this year's titles and authors please visit:
#books
#BookTwitter
#GelberPrize
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Despite the culturally-inflected criticism of this project, some good news:
“TSMC achieved production yields at its Arizona facility on par with established plants back home, an indicator that its marquee US project is on track to achieve its targets.”
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I think Twitter bans are generally bad ideas.
But if there were ever a case for a ban, a PRC official spreading misinformation that thwarts superpower cooperation during a once-in-a-century pandemic is probably it.
Whatever criteria you have for a ban, this likely meets it.
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Blowing up a G7 statement during a global pandemic because of a dispute over whether the coronavirus would be called the "Wuhan virus" is pretty close to a debacle.
It's also pretty far from leadership.
Wow. German media reports the G7 haven’t been able to agree on a joint statement on COVID-19 because of Pompeo’s insistence that it refer to it as the “Wuhan virus.”
The other countries “reject a label that suggests the pandemic is a Chinese problem”
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Great thread from
@jeffreychngo
on Walz’s record on China — and particularly human rights.
1. I’m encouraged by
@KamalaHarris
’s selection of
@Tim_Walz
as her running mate. While his record as an educator, a National Guard officer, and Minnesota’s governor is acclaimed, I want to reflect on how I met this amazing guy: his dedication to human rights and
#China
.
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When I wrote in The Long Game that the phrase “great changes unseen in a century” was primarily a statement of confidence in China’s rise and U.S. decline, some claimed that was a misreading.
But the evidence in the last three years is everywhere.
“My basic view is that we are now going through great changes not seen in a century. In other words, this suggests that chaos is raging and that the east is rising and the west is declining, or that China is rising and the US and the West are declining”
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