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Robdog ๐พ
@robdogeth
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Building @corkprotocol - Credit Default Swaps for Pegged Assets Prev founded @toucanprotocol and Vultus (ipo)
Ethereum/Lisbon
Joined April 2019
USD0++, a major stablecoin this cycle, just suffered a significant peg price deviation There is 200m$+ of borrows on @MorphoLabs alone with USD0++ as collateral, many of which are now above the Liquidation Loan To Value (LLTV) of 86% and should technically be liquidated. However because it looks like the oracle is hard-coded, there is an exodus of suppliers which is spiking the borrow rate. Somehow unless there is a rapid repeg - the USD0++ looping trade will need to unwind, which will cause some level of pain throughout the ecosystem. I hold my breath and wish all the best to everyone involved, including ofc the USD0++ holders and the @usualmoney team. Depegs like this can happen simply due to spikes in outflows causing cascading liquidations and market panic. There at glance is nothing wrong with the collateral backing USD0++, it is simply a time to liquidity miss-match because the redemption of USD0++ takes 4 years because it is structured as a bond which previously traded without any illiquidity discount, and now it does. Ironically, I actually called this exact event happening 3 weeks ago on December 23 in an internal Slack message I wrote: "The problem is USD0++ is illiquid for 4 years I believe, but its trading without any illiquidity premium. USD0 is redeemable for Hashkeys t-bill USYC which seems to have a robust redemption mechanism. USD0++ should depeg in a bit way at some point, at which point the Usual treasury can go in and unlock USD0++'s collateral at an instant profit, this is basically the final line of defense for USD0++ and likely will come into play at some point." It is events like this that highlight the very urgent need for onchain hedging and liquidity buffers such as what we are building with @Corkprotocol offers. If these looping trades were hedged, it would be easy and painless to unwind. If we had a clear risk price. the ecosystem could also see the difference in the peg price deviation risk of USD0++ vs other assets. This will be an interesting story to see unfold and I hope serves as a cautionary tale why risk management is such an important part of finance, even if we prend it is not in DeFi.
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RT @Corkprotocol: .@CoinMarketCap Academy published a piece by Cork's co-founder @Philfog! As the stablecoin market grew from $20 billionโฆ
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@megaeth_labs If you can make it before the caps get reached can deposit into the @Corkprotocol vaults
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RT @BrianQuintenz: It is my great honor to be nominated by President @realDonaldTrump as the next Chairman of the Commodity Futures Tradingโฆ
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@BrianQuintenz @realDonaldTrump @CFTC Congratz on the nomination, they could not have made a better pick!
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@nearcyan Same I would pay 10x the price for the value it is giving me and we are just starting to figure out how it can be used
The new Chat GPT: o1 Pro Deep Research is shockingly good I have used LLMs extensively the last two years but, this is the first time I am in true awe of the technology. o1 Pro Deep Research is like having a 120 iq researcher at your fingertips. It seems on-par or better than humans at market research, legal analysis, drafting agreements, specs, simple coding tasks, cost analysis etc. There is a whole range of jobs this model can immediately replace including: -The whole junior/mid level legal profession -All research assistants -Junior developers -All analyst jobs -Most consultants The difference of this model vs past ones is it is so much more dependable, it nails the answer almost every time, which means you can start relying on it to a much larger degree to perform complex tasks. The quality of the output and the speed at which it is delivered is far beyond human capacity. Whilst the cost of 200โฌ/mo seems high, companies are spending 100x that at least on the above roles. Having been a founder for 8+ years, imo this is the first time I truly see AI revolutionizing the way we build businesses. Past versions of AI could accelerate development, replace search and be a sounding board, but this version is in many areas akin to AGI. It is in many domains more capable than a human agent which I have never experienced before with AI. Competitive pressure will dictate that everyone has to start using this tool or fall behind. One can only imagine the impact this will have. The model is only about a week old, but over the next year there is likely going to be intense job displacement from this upgrade alone. Meanwhile the models are improving rapidly. To me the notion that AI will replace advanced knowledge work seemed still a ways away, but after using this model I can see this will happen right now. Maybe o1 Pro can only replace ~15% of knowledge work today, but in a year that is likely 30% and in two: 60%. Meanwhile this model will create enormous productivity gains. In my opinion, far beyond the gains from AI up to this point. Especially for startups, you will be able to operate a much leaner organization with the help of AI. A team of 15 with AI might be able to out-ship what you previously needed a team of 30 to build. This means companies will need to raise less money and software will become much more crowded due to the lower barrier to build competing solutions (including internally). Nobody knows how this is going to shake out - but to me it is clear the release of Deep Research is a real tipping point. If you haven't used it yet, it is easily the highest ROI 200โฌ you can spend right now. What a crazy time to be a builder!
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@ludwigABAP Agree I was blown away by it - so badly want to use something that is not Open AI but it's just the best on the market rn
The new Chat GPT: o1 Pro Deep Research is shockingly good I have used LLMs extensively the last two years but, this is the first time I am in true awe of the technology. o1 Pro Deep Research is like having a 120 iq researcher at your fingertips. It seems on-par or better than humans at market research, legal analysis, drafting agreements, specs, simple coding tasks, cost analysis etc. There is a whole range of jobs this model can immediately replace including: -The whole junior/mid level legal profession -All research assistants -Junior developers -All analyst jobs -Most consultants The difference of this model vs past ones is it is so much more dependable, it nails the answer almost every time, which means you can start relying on it to a much larger degree to perform complex tasks. The quality of the output and the speed at which it is delivered is far beyond human capacity. Whilst the cost of 200โฌ/mo seems high, companies are spending 100x that at least on the above roles. Having been a founder for 8+ years, imo this is the first time I truly see AI revolutionizing the way we build businesses. Past versions of AI could accelerate development, replace search and be a sounding board, but this version is in many areas akin to AGI. It is in many domains more capable than a human agent which I have never experienced before with AI. Competitive pressure will dictate that everyone has to start using this tool or fall behind. One can only imagine the impact this will have. The model is only about a week old, but over the next year there is likely going to be intense job displacement from this upgrade alone. Meanwhile the models are improving rapidly. To me the notion that AI will replace advanced knowledge work seemed still a ways away, but after using this model I can see this will happen right now. Maybe o1 Pro can only replace ~15% of knowledge work today, but in a year that is likely 30% and in two: 60%. Meanwhile this model will create enormous productivity gains. In my opinion, far beyond the gains from AI up to this point. Especially for startups, you will be able to operate a much leaner organization with the help of AI. A team of 15 with AI might be able to out-ship what you previously needed a team of 30 to build. This means companies will need to raise less money and software will become much more crowded due to the lower barrier to build competing solutions (including internally). Nobody knows how this is going to shake out - but to me it is clear the release of Deep Research is a real tipping point. If you haven't used it yet, it is easily the highest ROI 200โฌ you can spend right now. What a crazy time to be a builder!
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@fekdaoui That's wild, even at 200$ it's crazy cheap for the value it produces but free and open source it will be so much more widely used
The new Chat GPT: o1 Pro Deep Research is shockingly good I have used LLMs extensively the last two years but, this is the first time I am in true awe of the technology. o1 Pro Deep Research is like having a 120 iq researcher at your fingertips. It seems on-par or better than humans at market research, legal analysis, drafting agreements, specs, simple coding tasks, cost analysis etc. There is a whole range of jobs this model can immediately replace including: -The whole junior/mid level legal profession -All research assistants -Junior developers -All analyst jobs -Most consultants The difference of this model vs past ones is it is so much more dependable, it nails the answer almost every time, which means you can start relying on it to a much larger degree to perform complex tasks. The quality of the output and the speed at which it is delivered is far beyond human capacity. Whilst the cost of 200โฌ/mo seems high, companies are spending 100x that at least on the above roles. Having been a founder for 8+ years, imo this is the first time I truly see AI revolutionizing the way we build businesses. Past versions of AI could accelerate development, replace search and be a sounding board, but this version is in many areas akin to AGI. It is in many domains more capable than a human agent which I have never experienced before with AI. Competitive pressure will dictate that everyone has to start using this tool or fall behind. One can only imagine the impact this will have. The model is only about a week old, but over the next year there is likely going to be intense job displacement from this upgrade alone. Meanwhile the models are improving rapidly. To me the notion that AI will replace advanced knowledge work seemed still a ways away, but after using this model I can see this will happen right now. Maybe o1 Pro can only replace ~15% of knowledge work today, but in a year that is likely 30% and in two: 60%. Meanwhile this model will create enormous productivity gains. In my opinion, far beyond the gains from AI up to this point. Especially for startups, you will be able to operate a much leaner organization with the help of AI. A team of 15 with AI might be able to out-ship what you previously needed a team of 30 to build. This means companies will need to raise less money and software will become much more crowded due to the lower barrier to build competing solutions (including internally). Nobody knows how this is going to shake out - but to me it is clear the release of Deep Research is a real tipping point. If you haven't used it yet, it is easily the highest ROI 200โฌ you can spend right now. What a crazy time to be a builder!
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@AymericRoucher Makes sense the model is so fkn good
The new Chat GPT: o1 Pro Deep Research is shockingly good I have used LLMs extensively the last two years but, this is the first time I am in true awe of the technology. o1 Pro Deep Research is like having a 120 iq researcher at your fingertips. It seems on-par or better than humans at market research, legal analysis, drafting agreements, specs, simple coding tasks, cost analysis etc. There is a whole range of jobs this model can immediately replace including: -The whole junior/mid level legal profession -All research assistants -Junior developers -All analyst jobs -Most consultants The difference of this model vs past ones is it is so much more dependable, it nails the answer almost every time, which means you can start relying on it to a much larger degree to perform complex tasks. The quality of the output and the speed at which it is delivered is far beyond human capacity. Whilst the cost of 200โฌ/mo seems high, companies are spending 100x that at least on the above roles. Having been a founder for 8+ years, imo this is the first time I truly see AI revolutionizing the way we build businesses. Past versions of AI could accelerate development, replace search and be a sounding board, but this version is in many areas akin to AGI. It is in many domains more capable than a human agent which I have never experienced before with AI. Competitive pressure will dictate that everyone has to start using this tool or fall behind. One can only imagine the impact this will have. The model is only about a week old, but over the next year there is likely going to be intense job displacement from this upgrade alone. Meanwhile the models are improving rapidly. To me the notion that AI will replace advanced knowledge work seemed still a ways away, but after using this model I can see this will happen right now. Maybe o1 Pro can only replace ~15% of knowledge work today, but in a year that is likely 30% and in two: 60%. Meanwhile this model will create enormous productivity gains. In my opinion, far beyond the gains from AI up to this point. Especially for startups, you will be able to operate a much leaner organization with the help of AI. A team of 15 with AI might be able to out-ship what you previously needed a team of 30 to build. This means companies will need to raise less money and software will become much more crowded due to the lower barrier to build competing solutions (including internally). Nobody knows how this is going to shake out - but to me it is clear the release of Deep Research is a real tipping point. If you haven't used it yet, it is easily the highest ROI 200โฌ you can spend right now. What a crazy time to be a builder!
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@0xthoonbera @berachain Deep research will really change the game
The new Chat GPT: o1 Pro Deep Research is shockingly good I have used LLMs extensively the last two years but, this is the first time I am in true awe of the technology. o1 Pro Deep Research is like having a 120 iq researcher at your fingertips. It seems on-par or better than humans at market research, legal analysis, drafting agreements, specs, simple coding tasks, cost analysis etc. There is a whole range of jobs this model can immediately replace including: -The whole junior/mid level legal profession -All research assistants -Junior developers -All analyst jobs -Most consultants The difference of this model vs past ones is it is so much more dependable, it nails the answer almost every time, which means you can start relying on it to a much larger degree to perform complex tasks. The quality of the output and the speed at which it is delivered is far beyond human capacity. Whilst the cost of 200โฌ/mo seems high, companies are spending 100x that at least on the above roles. Having been a founder for 8+ years, imo this is the first time I truly see AI revolutionizing the way we build businesses. Past versions of AI could accelerate development, replace search and be a sounding board, but this version is in many areas akin to AGI. It is in many domains more capable than a human agent which I have never experienced before with AI. Competitive pressure will dictate that everyone has to start using this tool or fall behind. One can only imagine the impact this will have. The model is only about a week old, but over the next year there is likely going to be intense job displacement from this upgrade alone. Meanwhile the models are improving rapidly. To me the notion that AI will replace advanced knowledge work seemed still a ways away, but after using this model I can see this will happen right now. Maybe o1 Pro can only replace ~15% of knowledge work today, but in a year that is likely 30% and in two: 60%. Meanwhile this model will create enormous productivity gains. In my opinion, far beyond the gains from AI up to this point. Especially for startups, you will be able to operate a much leaner organization with the help of AI. A team of 15 with AI might be able to out-ship what you previously needed a team of 30 to build. This means companies will need to raise less money and software will become much more crowded due to the lower barrier to build competing solutions (including internally). Nobody knows how this is going to shake out - but to me it is clear the release of Deep Research is a real tipping point. If you haven't used it yet, it is easily the highest ROI 200โฌ you can spend right now. What a crazy time to be a builder!
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@vincentjow_ Agree and shit about to go wild now that Deep Research is out
The new Chat GPT: o1 Pro Deep Research is shockingly good I have used LLMs extensively the last two years but, this is the first time I am in true awe of the technology. o1 Pro Deep Research is like having a 120 iq researcher at your fingertips. It seems on-par or better than humans at market research, legal analysis, drafting agreements, specs, simple coding tasks, cost analysis etc. There is a whole range of jobs this model can immediately replace including: -The whole junior/mid level legal profession -All research assistants -Junior developers -All analyst jobs -Most consultants The difference of this model vs past ones is it is so much more dependable, it nails the answer almost every time, which means you can start relying on it to a much larger degree to perform complex tasks. The quality of the output and the speed at which it is delivered is far beyond human capacity. Whilst the cost of 200โฌ/mo seems high, companies are spending 100x that at least on the above roles. Having been a founder for 8+ years, imo this is the first time I truly see AI revolutionizing the way we build businesses. Past versions of AI could accelerate development, replace search and be a sounding board, but this version is in many areas akin to AGI. It is in many domains more capable than a human agent which I have never experienced before with AI. Competitive pressure will dictate that everyone has to start using this tool or fall behind. One can only imagine the impact this will have. The model is only about a week old, but over the next year there is likely going to be intense job displacement from this upgrade alone. Meanwhile the models are improving rapidly. To me the notion that AI will replace advanced knowledge work seemed still a ways away, but after using this model I can see this will happen right now. Maybe o1 Pro can only replace ~15% of knowledge work today, but in a year that is likely 30% and in two: 60%. Meanwhile this model will create enormous productivity gains. In my opinion, far beyond the gains from AI up to this point. Especially for startups, you will be able to operate a much leaner organization with the help of AI. A team of 15 with AI might be able to out-ship what you previously needed a team of 30 to build. This means companies will need to raise less money and software will become much more crowded due to the lower barrier to build competing solutions (including internally). Nobody knows how this is going to shake out - but to me it is clear the release of Deep Research is a real tipping point. If you haven't used it yet, it is easily the highest ROI 200โฌ you can spend right now. What a crazy time to be a builder!
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The new Chat GPT: o1 Pro Deep Research is shockingly good I have used LLMs extensively the last two years but, this is the first time I am in true awe of the technology. o1 Pro Deep Research is like having a 120 iq researcher at your fingertips. It seems on-par or better than humans at market research, legal analysis, drafting agreements, specs, simple coding tasks, cost analysis etc. There is a whole range of jobs this model can immediately replace including: -The whole junior/mid level legal profession -All research assistants -Junior developers -All analyst jobs -Most consultants The difference of this model vs past ones is it is so much more dependable, it nails the answer almost every time, which means you can start relying on it to a much larger degree to perform complex tasks. The quality of the output and the speed at which it is delivered is far beyond human capacity. Whilst the cost of 200โฌ/mo seems high, companies are spending 100x that at least on the above roles. Having been a founder for 8+ years, imo this is the first time I truly see AI revolutionizing the way we build businesses. Past versions of AI could accelerate development, replace search and be a sounding board, but this version is in many areas akin to AGI. It is in many domains more capable than a human agent which I have never experienced before with AI. Competitive pressure will dictate that everyone has to start using this tool or fall behind. One can only imagine the impact this will have. The model is only about a week old, but over the next year there is likely going to be intense job displacement from this upgrade alone. Meanwhile the models are improving rapidly. To me the notion that AI will replace advanced knowledge work seemed still a ways away, but after using this model I can see this will happen right now. Maybe o1 Pro can only replace ~15% of knowledge work today, but in a year that is likely 30% and in two: 60%. Meanwhile this model will create enormous productivity gains. In my opinion, far beyond the gains from AI up to this point. Especially for startups, you will be able to operate a much leaner organization with the help of AI. A team of 15 with AI might be able to out-ship what you previously needed a team of 30 to build. This means companies will need to raise less money and software will become much more crowded due to the lower barrier to build competing solutions (including internally). Nobody knows how this is going to shake out - but to me it is clear the release of Deep Research is a real tipping point. If you haven't used it yet, it is easily the highest ROI 200โฌ you can spend right now. What a crazy time to be a builder!
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@lex_node It is because too much crime is still legal whilst the real builders get prosecuted as criminals
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@0x_ale The post-covid wave of founders going remote created a real network in Lisbon as a top expat destination Now it has such critical mass it becomes a black hole for the rest of Europe Definitely best quality of life X network of any major tech hub imo
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@NTmoney Or at least every major primitive with composability Many apps will just sit on top of all those chains
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@Hootie_R Amazing thread! Another dynamic is also how quickly new supply of tokens saturates the market There are still many outsized winners but the percentage is lower due to so many competitors in every segment on every major ecosystem
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