Ridhwaan Suliman
@rid1tweets
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Making sense of the numbers so you don't have to! Senior Researcher. Applied Mathematician. PhD @Cambridge_Uni . Tweeting in my personal capacity
South Africa
Joined August 2012
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Turned! 🙏🏽
Confirmed
#COVID19
cases in Gauteng 🇿🇦 now on a decline, having peaked at case incidence of ~67 new cases per 100k, ~90% of delta wave peak, and currently showing a halving time of ~11 days 📉
#Omicron
#OmicronVariant
#Gauteng
#Covid_19
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Nationally, South Africa 🇿🇦 has also passed the peak of its
#Omicron
driven
#4thWave
👏🏽
A steeper wave but significantly shorter; about half the number of days to reach the peak compared with previous waves in South Africa
#COVID19
#OmicronVariant
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Happy Monday! Waking up to this complimentary message from a hero who I respect and admire so much, was such a great start to the week and month 🤗
Thank you for everything you so selflessly do, Dr Imtiaz Sooliman and
@GiftoftheGivers
🙏🏽
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Is the travel ban to/from South Africa really justified? Should the UK not be looking closer to home? 🤔
The continent (Europe) is surging yet we fear that which is now named! 🤨
#B11529
#NuVariant
#COVID19
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I'm not sure South Africans 🇿🇦 realise some of the many challenges ahead; even in the short term there's likely: fuel price hikes, increasing power blackouts, interest rate hikes, rising food costs, inflation, the above leading to greater inequality, protests, mental illness..
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South Africa🇿🇦 into its 4th wave 🌊
As Gauteng surges, with other provinces now following, case incidence across SA now above 8.8 new cases per 100k and test positivity above 12% 🚩
Based on previous experience, have breached tipping points or thresholds for sustained increase
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A week from hell, with so-called leaders clueless/missing! But a glimmer of hope as the real leaders emerge: ordinary citizens doing extraordinary things❤️
Love between humans - transcending man-made divisions of politics, race, religion, class - is only thing to get us through🇿🇦
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So my Dad got a new phone and I assisted in setting up his apps, as I usually do. After installing Twitter I checked his profile, and he's not following me! What's worse, wait for it... my Dad has actually blocked me!! 💀💀💀😂😂😂
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Fun facts with
@elonmusk
- Elon Musk and I were both born in Pretoria, in the month of June
- We both attended the same high school, and probably never stepped foot in the school again since
- Between us we have 86.4M twitter followers, and a combined net worth of 264.6B USD 🤑
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I really expected this curve to start turning by now... 😰
#Gauteng
#gautengcovid19
#3rdWave
#COVID19SA
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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An update of
#COVID19
cases vs hospitalisations vs deaths in South Africa🇿🇦 in comparison to previous wave:
• Cases peaked at 117% of Delta peak, now down to 66% of Delta peak
• Hospitalisations at 60% of Delta peak
• Deaths at 16% of Delta peak
#Omicron
#Covid_19
#Covid19SA
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Believe it or not, I've been updating this graph daily! 👀
#nothingtoseehere
#COVID19
#CovidVaccine
#Covid19InSA
🇿🇦
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After sharing daily
#COVID19
updates for 5 months (minus 4 days) and having passed the 🏔️ I'm taking a break from tweeting daily🐣
I'll still share NB
#coronavirus
posts now and again..
Thank you for your comments, feedback and support🙏
Remain vigilant, be kind and stay safe🇿🇦
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With the
#COVID19
case incidence across South Africa 🇿🇦 dropping below 5 new cases per day per 100k people, and down to 14% of its value at
#3rdWave
peak, as well as test positivity (7-day avg) down to 7.6% 📉 :
South Africa now formally exits its 3rd wave 👏
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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Hey
@WOOLWORTHS_SA
. Nature already has a nifty way of protecting this fruit. Is the extra cardboard and plastic wrapping around this single avocado really necessary? 😧
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The 7-day rolling avg
#COVID19
test positivity in South Africa🇿🇦 currently at 3.7% is lowest it's been since breaching this point in May 2020 before 1st wave 📉
I may be getting carried away but after all the bad news why not share good news while we can.. ☺️
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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[Thread] Dear fellow Gautengers
A plea to take extra precaution🙏
The 3rd wave of hospitalisations is here!
#COVID19
numbers are about to exceed previous peaks. We're entering uncharted territory. How high we go is still up to us,and our collective behaviour!
#Rid1TweetsonCovid
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Here's an updated graph of
#COVID19
cases and deaths in South Africa 🇿🇦
Whilst
#Covid_19
case incidence in SA now at an all-time high (117% of previous peak), deaths are decoupling and remain relatively low (<6% of previous peak)
#Omicron
#covidvariant
#Omicronupdate
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In promising news, this epi-curve of
#COVID19
in Gauteng continues its downward trend 📉
Test positivity rate and hospitalisations importantly also showing declines. May it continue 🙏
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
#Corona
#gauteng
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And South Africa 🇿🇦 as a whole also technically exits its
#OmicronVariant
driven
#4thWave
👏
A much shorter wave:
#Omicron
wave lasting ~75 days
Nationally,
#COVID19
case incidence now down to 5 new cases per 100k and down to 14% of recent peak, and test positivity below 10% 📉
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Here's an update of key
#COVID19
metrics in Gauteng 🇿🇦
• Cases and test positivity declining
Cases trajectory halving time about 5.5 days 📉
• Hospital admissions at or passed its peak
• Deaths rising, but much lower relative to previous wave (~14%)
#Omicron
#OmicronVariant
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Tentative evidence that
#COVID19
cases in Western Cape have passed an inflection point and possibly even starting to plateau 🙏
Too early to confirm yet if this is the peak of
#3rdWave
for WC, but the signs are promising 🤞🤞
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
#coronavirus
#WesternCape
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ALL provinces in South Africa 🇿🇦 have now formally exited the 3rd wave of
#COVID19
, based on current definition of case incidence less than 15% of recent peaks 📉
This is the 1st time in the pandemic we've had all 9 provinces out of a wave at the same time 👏
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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Lots of requests for this graph of GAUTENG, here you go:
Dramatic decline is a function of, both, reduced testing and high levels of infection together with NPIs (Level 4) 📉
Any possible effects of unrest/gatherings may only be seen end of this week or next
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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[Thread] Fellow Gautengers,
The
#3rdWave
of
#COVID19
in
#Gauteng
has been devastating😩
There are signs of hope, light at the end of the dark tunnel💡
Cases surpassed an inflection point and heading towards/possibly at a peak🗻
But we must remain vigilant🧐
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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Quick update on
#COVID19
numbers in South Africa🇿🇦:
• Case rates low
• PCR test % positivity flat at ~4.0%
• Hospital admissions continue to decline and down to new lows (~25/day) 📉
• In-hospital deaths also at lowest levels
All stable and not much to see here, thankfully 👍
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A year ago today I shared my first
#COVID19
tweet, to my then ~90 followers, trying to make sense of all the uncertainty 📊 Thank you for your support through this roller-coaster year🎢 I've got a list of ideas to still improve, but I'm also keen to hear what you'd like to see?🙏
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Why do we refer to political leaders as "Excellency..." or "Honourable..."? 🤔
Those in political power are servants to the people who choose to put them there! And their sole job should be to serve!!
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Balloons on my timeline 🎈
I guess I can't call myself a youth anymore... 🙃🧟♂️
Not much to celebrate right now, but I'll still be practising these dance moves today for when it's safe to bring these out again.. 🕺🎶🥳
#HappyBirthdayToMe
🎂
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Next, a look at HOSPITALISATIONS in
#Gauteng
🇿🇦
New hospital admissions in Gauteng up to 45% of levels seen at its previous peak. The previous 2 weeks saw new hospitalisations doubling ~5 days, latest week data still incomplete... 🕰️
#OmicronVirus
#COVID19
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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May 2022 be the year we no longer have to extend y-axes! 📊🙏🏽📉
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Update
#COVID19
in GAUTENG 🇿🇦:
• 6,168 new cases today, 7-day avg up 424% week-on-week 📈
• Case incidence up to 25% of previous peak, doubling every 3.5 days
• Test positivity = 15.9% 🚩
• 1035 currently in hospital 🚑
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
#Omicron
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Update
#COVID19
in GAUTENG 🇿🇦
Finally all indicators moving in right direction 👏
Not out of the woods yet though as risk remains ⚠️
• Cases down 40% week-on-week ⬇️
• Test positivity still above 30% 🚩
• Hospitalisations down 17% ↘️
• Deaths down 14% ↘️
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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Struggling to get out of bed today. Might be the weather, but I look at covid statistics and know each number has a name. Videos of elderly queuing for grants, hospitals burdened. So much pain and suffering across the world, yet so much greed and selfishness at the same time 😔
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You earn a salary.. you pay TAX.
You get a bonus.. you pay tax.
You buy food.. you pay VAT.
You fill fuel.. you pay fuel levies.
You buy a house.. you pay transfer duties.
You sell your house.. you pay capital gains tax.
You die.. you pay estate tax.
This LIFE is a SCAM!! 🤨🙄
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Finally, a look at hospitalisations in Gauteng?
New admissions doubling ~ every 5 days, and up to 31% of previous peak levels
Note: hospitalisations lag cases by 1-3 weeks, and with reporting delays need to wait a week to understand actual hospital admissions for previous week
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What's going on with the weather in Gauteng? Feels like I'm in the UK again ⛈️🤔
Can we please close our borders to prevent any more of this UK weather variant coming in 🤦🏻♂️🙄
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Update
#COVID19
in GAUTENG, 23/06/21🇿🇦
• 10,806 new cases = new daily record high ⚠️
• Case incidence at 51.8 per 100k per day, now 52% higher than previous peaks 📈
• 5,842 patients currently in hospital, surpassing numbers seen during peak of 2nd wave 🚑
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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It's Sunday! Time for our weekly summary of
#COVID19
in South Africa 🇿🇦
All indicators reflecting a decline over this past week 📉
• Cases -48% ⬇️
• Tests -40% ⬇️
• Test positivity at 25.8% 🚩
• Hospitalisations -6% ⬇️
• Deaths -1% ↘️
#Omicron
#OmicronVariant
#4thwave
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[Update]
#COVID19
in GAUTENG 🇿🇦
• 8,403 new cases = new daily record ⚠️
• 7-day avg of cases at 6,405 = 21% higher than previous peak 📈
• Test positivity rate ~25% 🚩
• 5,178 patients currently in hospital 🚑
• 1,102 patients in ICU 🤲
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
#coronavirus
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Here's a good example of how NOT to interpret data, and how cherry-picking can suit a certain narrative 😒
#LGE2021
Bringing the ANC below 50% has been a lifelong project of the DA because we recognised, very early into our democracy, that SA will never thrive under the ANC.
The DA has arrested the decline to become the only national party to grow in this election.
#ElectionsResults2021
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Having looked at national
#COVID19
picture, I'll try zoom in on some of bigger provinces in South Africa🇿🇦
First, GAUTENG:
• Cases peaked at 90% of Delta peak, now down to 21%
• Hospitalisations peaked at 50% of Delta peak
• Deaths at 14% of Delta peak
#Omicron
#coronavirus
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Here we go again? 👀
Number of confirmed
#COVID19
cases in Gauteng still relatively low, but a noticeable increase: 7-day rolling avg tripling over the past week 📈
Hoping this is just a minor uptick and increase is not sustained 🤲
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
#Covid19inSA
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While Gauteng's
#COVID19
cases trajectory has been dramatic, the most encouraging picture is this graph comparing deaths over the four waves 📊
Every death is one too many, but thankfully Gauteng's total death toll over
#Omicron
wave much lower (~10%) than previous
#Delta
wave 🙏
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I made the cover of a magazine! 🙌
Thank you to Allison Cooper and GCIS for the interview and kind write-up. You can read more here:
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Here we go again!
#COVID19
in GAUTENG 🇿🇦:
• 1,950 new cases today = biggest single-day increase since 13 August ⚠️
• Case incidence above 5 new cases per 100k population, +308% week-on-week 🚩
• 707 currently in hospital 🚑
• 55 in ICU 🤲
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
#4thWave
#B11529
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Do South Africans 🇿🇦 still watch cricket? 🤔
I used to follow the Proteas avidly, but have no interest now even in a series against our biggest rivals, Australia, and in a world cup year 🤷♂️
#Cricket
#SAvsAUS
#CricketTwitter
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Here's a graph tracking key
#COVID19
metrics of cases, hospital admissions and deaths in Gauteng 🇿🇦
These are shown plotted as a % of its peak value in the previous delta-driven wave :
#Gauteng
#Omicron
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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Promisingly, all provinces across South Africa 🇿🇦 have passed their peaks and now showing a sustained decline in
#COVID19
cases and test positivity rates 📉
#Covid_19
hospital admissions and deaths also decreasing 🙏
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
#3rdWave
#DeltaVariant
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Finally, here's an updated graph (log scale) of reported
#COVID19
DEATHS during each wave in Gauteng 🇿🇦
Whilst absolute number of reported deaths in
#Gauteng
still low (8% of previous peak), the rate of increase remains high - currently doubling about ~11 days 🙏🏽
#OmicronVirus
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"Demand is higher than anticipated" 🤯
Does no one at
#Eskom
know it's Winter? Does no one at Eskom do modelling and forecasts? Is demand even back to pre-pandemic levels?
Demand is not higher; supply is lower - idiots!
Also, has the minister resigned yet?🤬
#Loadshedding
#Stage4
#Loadshedding
will be increased to Stage 4 from 13:00 until 22:00 tonight.
#Stage4
loadshedding will be implemented at 08:00 until 22:00 tomorrow night. Demand is higher than anticipated, some units have tripped.
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Update
#COVID19
in GAUTENG 🇿🇦:
• 2,629 new cases today, 7-day avg up 331% week-on-week 📈
• Case incidence at 8.5 new cases per 100k population per day, doubling every 3.5 days ⚠️
• 750 currently in hospital 🚑
• % adult pop. vaxxed = 37.5% 💉
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
#Omicron
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A good day for
#Covid_19
in South Africa🇿🇦 with all indicators continuing their sustained declines 🙏
Lowest number of confirmed cases (429) and test positivity (2.6%) since 8 May 2020 📉
We must now drive these
#COVID
numbers as close to zero as possible 👊
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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If you want to see the rainbow, you gotta go through the rain 🌈
#rainbow
#tablemountain
#ocean
#CapeTown
#Rid1TweetsNotOnCovid
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The
#3rdWave
in South Africa 🇿🇦 rearing its ugly head 📈
A large increase in confirmed
#COVID19
cases again, with ALL provinces showing an increase ⚠️
Test positivity rate up again, 7-day avg back at 21.7%, after having showed a slow decline for a while 🚩
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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While
#COVID19
case numbers, test positivity rates, and hospitalisations continue their decline across South Africa 🇿🇦 during this wave driven by
#OmicronVariant
, reported deaths still ticking upwards. A longer lag and/or slower reporting. Deaths currently at 30% of Delta peak 📈
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Another week, another update
#COVID19
in South Africa🇿🇦
As we emerge from the
#3rdWave
, let's acknowledge the efforts of all healthcare workers over this period 🙏
• Cases -40%
• Tests -16%
• Test positivity at 6.8%
• Hospitalisations -32%
• Deaths -35%
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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Update
#COVID19
situation in SOUTH AFRICA🇿🇦
• 4,373 more cases today. 7-day avg up 311% week-on-week 📈
Expect a large increase tomorrow post weekend effect ⚠️
• Daily test positivity = 10.2% 🚩
• 2,414 currently in hospital
• 21 more deaths
• % population vaxxed = 28.8% 💉
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With the
#COVID19
case incidence down to 3.1 new cases per 100k per day and avg test % positivity below 10% again, South Africa🇿🇦 has technically exited its unofficial Omicron BA.4/BA.5 wave 👏
Lasting ~8 weeks, it has been the shortest & least severe wave experienced thus far 🙏
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Daily
#COVID19
test positivity rate in South Africa🇿🇦 dips below 10% today (8.4%), for first time since breaching this threshold almost 4 months ago 📉
The trend is moving in the right direction ↘️ - we're in the amber zone now, let's get to green 🚦
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
#3rdWave
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And here's a comparison of
#COVID19
cases, hospitalisations and deaths in WESTERN CAPE 🇿🇦 (pop. ~7M) normalised against previous delta wave peak:
• Cases peaked at 112% of delta peak
• Hospitalisations at 58% of delta peak
• Deaths at 6% of delta peak
#Omicron
#coronavirus
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Weekly update of
#COVID19
in South Africa🇿🇦
Test positivity rate at lowest point ever! New cases, hospitalisations and deaths at lowest levels seen between waves 👍
• Cases -27%
• Tests -4%
• Test positivity at 1.0%
• Hospitalisations -30%
• Deaths -39%
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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And with NICD stopping daily reports today, my
#COVID19
in South Africa🇿🇦 updates will become infrequent. I will still keep an eye on the weekly reports and any other data still available but 2.3 years later I will likely take a break, with the occasional update when necessary 👋
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Update
#COVID19
in South Africa, 03/07/21🇿🇦
• 26,485 new cases. Another new daily record ⚠️
• Tests conducted = 96,896 🧪
• Test positivity = 27.3% 🚩
With case incidence in SA now 33 per 100k per day,
#3rdWave
looks set to surpass previous peaks tomorrow
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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Update
#COVID19
in GAUTENG, 25/06/21🇿🇦
• 11,777 new cases = biggest single day increase 📈
• Case incidence 70% above previous peaks ⚠️
• Test positivity > 32%; 1 in 3 tests +ve 🚩
• 6,259 currently in hospital 🤲
• 72 deaths on avg per day this week 😢
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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Update
#COVID19
in South Africa, 02/07/21🇿🇦
• 24,270 new cases. Biggest single day increase on record since start of pandemic in SA ⚠️
• Test positivity = 27.4% 🚩
• 13,751 currently in hospital 🚑
• 2,263 currently in ICU 🤲
• 303 more deaths reported 😢
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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The ongoing BA.4 / BA.5
#COVID19
wave in South Africa 🇿🇦 has resulted in many infections (many undetected), but hospitalisations are relatively low and no substantial rise in deaths 🙏
Is this what the future of SARS-CoV-2 looks like in a population with high immunity?
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South Africa 🇿🇦 currently averaging 6 recorded
#COVID19
deaths per day - the lowest this figure has been since end April 2020 📉 🙏
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The 7-day avg of confirmed
#COVID19
cases in South Africa🇿🇦 finally dips below 10k per day, first time since breaching this level mid-June📉
Test positivity also declining, confirming decline in cases is real & not an artefact of testing, 7-day avg at 17.9%📉
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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NEW: 1st wave vs 2nd wave vs 3rd wave
Here's a plot overlaying
#COVID19
cases for 1st, 2nd and current waves in SA🇿🇦
For comparison:
• Current 7-day avg = 3,967. Current doubling rate = 21 days
• At ~4k cases in 2nd wave, doubling= 15 days
• And 1st wave, doubling= 22 days
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All
#COVID19
indicators continue their steady decline in South Africa🇿🇦 and across all provinces 📉
As we consider easing restrictions now's a good time to increase vigilance and reduce opportunities for transmission 👀
Remember: viruses can't mutate if they can't replicate! 🛑
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Looking at national picture again, here's an updated graph of the
#Omicron
wave in South Africa🇿🇦 compared with previous waves.
Still rising, as other provinces follow Gauteng’s epi trajectory, but slowing 📈
Also need to consider other associated metrics (see tweets to follow)
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#COVID19
in South Africa🇿🇦
Looks like our days of living in the "green zone" (<5% +ve) are now behind us🚦
Before anyone blames imported variants, please bear in mind there has been ongoing local community transmission and we've been on a steady increase for almost a month now 📈
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Time for an update of
#COVID19
in GAUTENG 🇿🇦
Summary first, thread to follow...
• 11,703 new cases. 7-day avg up 216% with an ever-so-slight bend
See next tweet.
• Test positivity = 35%
• 1990 currently in hospital
• 179 in ICU
• % population vaxxed = 28.7%
#OmicronVariant
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Update
#COVID19
in GAUTENG, 01/07/21 🇿🇦
• 12,806 new cases = biggest single day increase 📈
• Case incidence at 69 cases per 100k per day, now twice as high as previous peaks ⚠️
• 7,515 currently in hospital, surpassing previous peaks 🚑
• 1,342 in ICU 🤲
#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
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The daily test positivity in South Africa 🇿🇦 dips below 20% today, for the first time since breaching this threshold on 16 June 2021 📉
Unfortunately it's still very high, 7-day avg at 22.6%, and not decreasing as quickly as post previous peaks, but trend is still hopeful 🙏
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I'm a disruptor 🙌
DM168 DISRUPTOR: Ridhwaan Suliman: Covid stats + empathy = a Twitter treasure
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