Rupert Harrison
@rbrharrison
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Chair of the UK Council of Economic Advisers 2010-2015. BlackRock Portfolio Manager 2015-2024. Economist, investor, policy wonk, dad.
Oxfordshire, England.
Joined September 2010
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田中さん
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声優さん
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LINGORM THE STYLER
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攻殻機動隊
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Fate
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ALRIGHT POSTER
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ネルフェス
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ショック
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草薙素子
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Divine Play Of God Kabir
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#西園寺さんは家事をしない
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フランメ
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Leao
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OUR BRILLIANT RENJUN
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ベヨネッタ
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キャスター
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岡田将生
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リサリサ先生
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#それ言ってどうすんだ祭
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美城常務
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I'm sorry to report that everyone should be watching the gilt market...
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Sadly the impact of the Benn Act is clear to see - the EU have not felt any pressure to engage seriously with the UK's proposals and are now actively gambling on the outcome of a UK election
.
@BorisJohnson
, what’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. At stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people. You don’t want a deal, you don’t want an extension, you don’t want to revoke, quo vadis?
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The sheer brass neck of this. To presume to offer advice after what happened. And still no genuine acknowledgment of the real mistakes that were made.
Happily, nobody in the Conservative Party or the Government is listening.
Liz Truss urges Rishi Sunak to cut taxes and benefit increases
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(Though frankly right now I'm more worried about the apostrophe in "it's" in the tweet above. And nobody out there to bail me out...)
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I have no idea whether the UK would run out of food and medicines in a no-deal Brexit, but I do know that it would do irreparable damage to the UK's reputation - already knocked - as a stable and predictable place to do business, with huge long term economic cost
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There once was a lady called Priti
Who met Bibi in the Holy City
She didn't tell her boss
Who got very cross
But neither of them got much pity
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What is going on?! David Gauke is one of the nicest people in politics and has been an effective minister since 2010, not least in building such a competitive corporate tax system it forced the US to copy us. A sad day if there's no space in the Tory party for people like him
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Patrick Minford wants 7% interest rates...
So his plan to get inflation down appears to be a deep recession and a huge wave of home repossessions
To be fair this is broadly in line with most of his previous recommendations so you can't fault him for consistency
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Frankly very frustrating that many of us who voted Remain have demonstrated more ownership of the referendum result and the need to find a deliverable form of Brexit than any of the Brexiteers who have resigned from the government
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Any candidate for PM promising a new era of tax cuts needs to identify which parts of government spending they would cut.
And given the state of the public finances we're talking tens of billions. Cutting the size of the civil service doesn't even scratch the surface...(1/2)
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There are going to be some shiny new motorways, schools and hospitals in Northern Ireland
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Theresa May won't look quite so hopeless once whoever takes over confronts the same Parliamentary arithmetic, EU realities and sour national mood
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This claim by Rachel Reeves is objectively simply not true. The 2010 public finances inheritance was far far worse, with a budget deficit over 10% of GDP and a vast banking system on government life support.
Rachel Reeves ordered a review by Treasury officials that could pave the way for autumn tax rises as she warned that Britain is facing the worst public finances since the Second World War
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Seems to be an unpopular opinion but Kim Darroch was quite right to resign. Not his fault - & leaking the cables was disgraceful - but he could no longer do the job effectively. Govt should give him another role or put him in the Lords as +ve signal to the civil service
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For those who don't want to stare at the BBG chart, the interest rate on 10 year gilts is almost back above where it was before the Bank announced it's temporary purchase programme
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I strongly believe that 2 plus 2 equals 5 but the stale old orthodoxy keeps coming up with the same tired old answer
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An ageing politburo, no obvious heir apparent, a new ideology, a slowing economy, difficult neighbours- interesting times for UK watchers...
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It seems beyond doubt that Asian countries were better prepared for COVID because of their experience with SARS etc
European & US plans were clearly more closely based on the flu playbook
So a fairer comparison for the UK response would be other European countries & the US
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I'm normally a big defender of the OBR as an institution but the timing of Richard Hughes' letter is an error that plays into Labour's fundamentally untrue narrative. He has allowed normal in-year spending pressures to be turned into a political scoring point. 1/
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Quick quiz: rearranging government departments (a) never works as intended, (b) never really changes anything, (c) is often a sign you've run out of actual ideas, or (d) all of the above?
Excl: Cabinet ministers drawing up plans for a new super ministry of Infrastructure. Would see BEIS, DCMS and DfT merged.
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Reasons to be cheerful about 2021 in the midst of a chaotic Christmas:
- With a deal done, Brexit will become a 3rd or 4th tier political issue
- With the vaccines, life should be pretty much back to normal by May at the very latest
- The global economy will be booming
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Bit of clarity needed - being against this deal implies support for one of:
1. No deal
2. No Brexit
3. Canada + with NI only backstop
So opponents of the deal should be clear which one they support.
There is no other magic option.
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Really off the scale lack of self awareness from Truss here.
As someone who just lost a seat, it was clear from the doorstep that her record was one of the main reasons we were so soundly beaten. No individual in history has done more damage to the Conservative Party.
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This kind of comment actively undermines the credibility of the government in the eyes of markets, who all know that it's total nonsense. Stark contrast with the Chancellor who has signalled that he gets it
Rees-Mogg claims that the market turbulence of past fortnight has nothing to do with the Govt.
"It's much more to do with interest rates than it is do with a minor part of fiscal policy"
Sets up key
#PMQ
for
@Keir_Starmer
: is that now the Govt position? Or just Rees-Mogg opinion?
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My goodness this is ignorant, rude and wrong
“Mark Carney is a second tier Canadian politician who failed to get on in Canadian politics and then got a job in the UK. I don’t think he’s greatly respected”
Jacob Rees Mogg even more unimpressed with Governor Carney than normal...
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I think it's dawning on people that Labour are going to max out all the taxes they haven't ruled out - including CGT on family homes, pension tax etc.
Having closed off income tax, NICs and VAT this is the only way they can pay for their commitments.
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He needed to do it a lot more
EXCLUSIVE
@Telegraph
: Liz Truss has blamed the scale of the Conservatives’ general election defeat on a decision by Rishi Sunak to “trash my record”
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Dumbo, "Taking off March 29". Disney are trolling the UK
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Dom Cummings as de facto Chief of Staff - probably more significant than any Cabinet appointment. Dom is first and foremost a campaigner - Boris getting ready for an election
One big appointment coming today - Dominic Cummings expected to be senior advisor to the new PM - Vote Leave chief moving into govt - huge brain and experienced in govt, and will be applauded by Brexiteers - highly controversial too
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Pro Brexit MPs who are planning to vote against the Brexit deal are like the Drowning Man in the story who turns away the boat and the helicopter, saying 'God will save me'. When he dies, God says to him 'why didn't you accept the boat and helicopter I sent?'
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At current rates they could hand draw a flag on each one
Can't imagine this is a top priority for anyone right now, but Spanish MEP Domenec Ruiz Devesa has started a petition calling on the European Commission to ensure that the EU flag is emblazoned across all
#coronavirus
vaccine deliveries throughout Europe.
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FTSE 100 is on a tear today. Global investors have been underweight the UK since 2016, now reallocating back given hugely reduced uncertainty
I suspect the same reduction in uncertainty will unleash some corporate investment and boost the real economy, despite poor PMIs today
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Incredibly sad news. When we arrived in the Treasury in 2010 it was clear that Alistair Darling had inspired deep affection and loyalty from all of his officials. He also treated us gracefully and politely during the transition. A big loss to our public life.
Alistair Darling, former Labour chancellor of the exchequer, and leader of the 2014 campaign against Scottish independence, has died, aged 70.
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First meeting of the Theresa May appreciation society
Upside of not being in Government is that there is plenty of time to catch up with old friends. Always fantastic to see
@George_Osborne
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All Londoners know this cannot possibly have happened
“You see this?” stranger in elevator asks me in London, showing Trump tweets on mayor that just posted.
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It's time for members of the Cabinet to stop flirting irresponsibly with 'no deal' for personal political advantage and explain publicly why it's not an acceptable outcome for a prosperous and law abiding country
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I cannot believe that candidates for the Conservative leadership are seriously floating / refusing to rule out proroguing parliament in order to force through No Deal. Can you imagine the shitstorm? The damage to our democracy and institutions?
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Nonsense that TM has to go if 100 MPs vote against her. We know that 52% is enough to win
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People really have short memories of what difficult negotiations are like. Lots of commentary this morning that govt might fall, no deal imminent etc. Calm down people
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Hard to disagree with any of this. Very good from
@jameskirkup
Me, with some sadness, on my former colleague, Boris Johnson:
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UK currently looking pretty good compared to this group of countries
Any country recording more than 20 new Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people over a seven-day period could trigger the introduction of quarantine measures for travellers returning to the UK. We calculated this figure for every country here:
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Yet again the voters nailed it: didn't want PM Corbyn, or PM May & bit iffy about hard Brexit. Pretty much only seat combo that does all 3
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Really feels like central bankers around the world are making a collective policy mistake - trying to use rapid rate rises to cool inflation that is driven mainly by supply constraints, just as growth momentum is slowing...
...how long before the inevitable reversal?
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Quarter on quarter growth in Q1:
UK 0.7%
Canada 0.4%
US 0.3%
France 0.2%
Germany 0.2%
Italy 0.3%
Japan -0.5%
UK the fastest in G7 by some way.
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To save a week of pointless commentary can we all agree that "regulatory alignment" in some key areas is not the same as staying in the single market or the customs union?
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This not just another energy shock / cost of living squeeze. It's a once in a generation threat to the solvency of many households and businesses that could scar the economy for years to come
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@DanielJHannan
True, though he's also a fictional flying elephant! Genuinely liked your gag though. & based on the vote that just happened Dumbo may be flying before Brexit does
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Re Labour's Building Schools for the Future programme:
- it was totally unfunded beyond April 2011
- the 2010 Coalition SR allocated £2bn more to the annual govt capital budget than was in Labour's 2010 election plans
- so Labour's plans were to cut investment by more
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This is a total destruction by Downing Street of the spectator critique of the withdrawal agreement - worth a read. Someone in No10 deserves a Sunday evening drink
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UK and European gas & power prices continue rising to truly scary levels.
The Government will have to act on a very large scale to support households, especially those on lower incomes - and also probably small businesses.
The scale of this shock is hard to overstate.
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Was there ever so much good news for the world in a single tweet...?
The Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine - of which the UK has ordered 100 million doses - is safe and effective, researchers confirm
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This wage payment scheme sounds like exactly what's needed. It's also a revolution in economic policy. Rishi Sunak and the Treasury innovating at speed
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Incredibly honoured to be selected as the Conservative Parliamentary Candidate for Bicester & Woodstock.
I love this area and I'll campaign with all my heart to protect our beautiful countryside and support the local services we all rely on.
Congratulations to
@rbrharrison
on his selection as the
#Conservative
Parliamentary candidate for the new
#Bicester
&
#Woodstock
constituency. He will make a brilliant MP.
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When Juncker gives Theresa May a pre-election PR gift does anyone really expect her not to play it for all she can?
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I think Jeremy Hunt's Today prog interview is a turning point. Markets now have someone in the Treasury who gets it and who they can trust
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We are in this position because of 28 Tory MPs who campaigned for Brexit but won't vote for the only feasible way of delivering it and a Labour party who have no substantive objections to the Withdrawal Agreement but still won't vote for it
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Two weeks ago I said we would need mass disaster insurance style cash flow support for businesses. I'm pretty sure this where we're now heading
Don't think Funding for Lending redux, Time to Pay (deferred tax) etc are going to be enough for small businesses. Worth considering full scale public natural disaster style insurance for lost business. FEMA in the US has schemes like this. Not aware of anything in the UK, yet...
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Personally I think Boris Johnson will win that election - especially with help like this from EU leaders! - and then they will have to engage seriously
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Labour will say they have to abandon their £28bn because the fiscal situation has got worse.
But since June, when they recommitted to it, fiscal headroom has risen & borrowing costs have fallen.
The only thing that's got worse is their lack of any distinctive economic policy.
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Still true
Theresa May won't look quite so hopeless once whoever takes over confronts the same Parliamentary arithmetic, EU realities and sour national mood
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How should we all behave in political life?
Check out the astonishing universal response on here to the sad news of Alistair Darling's death.
And then try to
#belikeAlistair
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When Reeves announces large tax rises in the Autumn - as she inevitably will - it will be her very own Norman Lamont / "read my lips" moment. A lack of honesty and a total lack of mandate will fatally undermine her credibility.
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Probably the most important line in the manifesto - putting it in writing means chances of Parliament pushing back are basically zero
#ToryManifesto
: "As we leave the European Union, we will no longer be members of the Single Market and the Customs Union"
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Did he... forget about the election?
STOCK MARKET UP BIG, VACCINE COMING SOON. REPORT 90% EFFECTIVE. SUCH GREAT NEWS!
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Boris's letter: still very noticeable absence of an alternative plan of any kind
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So the DUP are reviving demands to align Air Passenger Duty with Ireland but oppose the Brexit deal because it could force alignment of some regulations with Ireland. Cakeism Northern Ireland style...
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Olly Robbins has undermined one of TM's central claims, but this is just a specific example of a wider truth: it's almost never a good idea to build a governing strategy around saying something that isn't true - government is too big and the truth will out somehow
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Brilliant twitter moment
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Weirdos, project managers, policy experts - all good stuff.
Struggling more with the quanty econ types - I suspect more useful in hedge funds or economics departments than in government...
There isn't much difficult economics in government - it's 99% about avoiding bad ideas
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There is also a huge and fundamental difference with 2010. Then we had spent a year warning about the inheritance and the need for spending cuts. This time Labour spent the whole election saying tax rises weren't necessary. It's fundamentally dishonest & they lack a mandate. 4/
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Excellent must read thread on Labour's transparent dishonesty.
Crucially this is nothing like what we did in 2010. We had spent over a year warning there would have to be cuts to deal with the deficit. This time around Labour spent the election saying tax rises weren't needed.
On Monday Labour are going to tell the biggest lie in British politics. They're pretending everything is worse than they realised, so they can break their promise made less than a month ago, and rinse you with taxes rises. This is why it's untrue. (1/n).
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Yet again we discover that a currency depreciation doesn't quite work magic on exports like it does in the textbooks...
UK industrial production suffers surprise contraction in February
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Despite the furious ERG/DUP spin the reality is that TM has delivered a significant negotiating achievement over the last few weeks - holding out against a NI only backstop and effectively forcing the EU to concede
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"Pro enterprise policy to counteract disruption" is the kind of detailed, thought through and properly evaluated policy Steve often proposed when in government
if Theresa May was as decent as establishment commentators say, she would resign now.
Britain needs a new leader who:
believes in Brexit
understands there's no point 'negotiating' Brexit w the EU
implements a clean break + pro-enterprise policy agenda to counteract disruption
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It saddens me to say it but Mervyn's piece is not worthy of a former Governor of the Bank of England - it indulges in fantasy options and proposes no serious alternatives - we've come to expect this from the ERG but others should do better...
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A long term plan to make government more efficient and more nimble is possible, especially with smart use of technology - but I don't currently see any evidence of such a plan. And it's not going to work overnight, whilst the costs of an ageing population are becoming real now
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Didn't think anyone would actually try and make this argument with a straight face...
Don’t blame Brexit for this rate cut. Blame Project Fear
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Big picture even if Biden wins - Democrats very unlikely to win the Senate and so we're looking at at least two years of gridlock and constructivism. No big legislation. No big fiscal support for the economy. The Fed is back to being the only game in town
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Treasury costings have been repeatedly used by Labour in the past and are indeed produced by civil servants under long established guidelines. The vast majority of the £2,000 figure is made up of either HMT costings or Labour's own costings. This isn't the gotcha Labour claim.
EXCLUSIVE
The chief Treasury civil servant wrote to Labour two days ago saying that the £38 billion/£2,000 tax attack “should not be presented as having been produced by the civil service”
He said he had reminded ministers of this
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Bottom line from TM speech: govt wants softest possible Brexit consistent w leaving single market & customs union - ie somewhere in the middle. Implication: if forced by EU to choose between two extremes - hard or soft - will have to go for hard
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I really really don't understand how the Conservative rebels could not vote for this deal when they voted 3 times for Theresa May's deal
DUP needed to unlock the ERG. BUT alarm bells now sounding on other side with the 21 anti No Deal rebel Tories. Up to 12/13 could vote against Johnson deal. I hear not much contact made between govt & rebels. But no good tying up ERG/DUP and neglecting this group. Tough work this
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Just catching up with Boris's latest Brexit intervention - taken at face value it implies no concern whatsoever for the economy, jobs or the union. Should we therefore conclude he knows this & doesn't care because political positioning is all that matters?
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The UK has a terrible stats PR game...
The recovery after 2010 was repeatedly revised up, whilst the US was revised down - we now know the two grew the same 2010-2016 but that wasn't the narrative at the time.
Similar thing happening now, especially compared to rest of Europe
Quite the UK GDP revision today - hugely higher level - almost 2% up
- ONS found stockbuilding down the back of the sofa in 2020
- and foud wholesale and health services much stronger than expected in 2021
Means the UK is not a global outlier any more....
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We've been waiting for these Oxford results for a while - all the indications are they'll be positive
Good news and likely another boost for equity markets
Positive news is coming on Oxford Covid-19 vaccine. The vaccine is generating the kind of antibody and T-cell (killer cell) response that the researchers would hope to see, I understand. Details soon in
@TheLancet
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So, I have a new adviser...
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Acknowledging that the Labour party have 262 votes in the House of Commons and that Jeremy Corbyn is their leader is surely different from suggesting Corbyn is fit to be PM...?
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None of this adds up to a "black hole" in the public finances, and Rachel Reeves decision to eg means test Winter Fuel Payments is necessary only to fund her other choices like accepting big increases in public sector pay. 3/
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Congratulations to Theresa May for perseverance. Nul points for all those who predicted no deal was inevitable
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Really is deeply dishonest and transparent for ministers to keep saying this.
Darren Jones absurdly claims govt "inherited the worst economic circumstances since the Second World War"
Reality:
Unemployment (Mar-May)
2010 = 7.8%
2024 = 4.4%
Employment
2010 = 70.4%
2024 = 74.4%
PSNB
2009/10 = 10.3%
2024/25 = 3.1%
Inflation
2.8% (Jun)
Vs 25% in 70s!
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Because changing the leadership election rules clearly worked so well for the Labour Party
Excl: Tory chiefs exploring major rule change to leadership contest for party members to pick between four candidates, not just two. Boost for Boris and dark horses.
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@ChristianJMay
@EuroGuido
I can't forecast what you will weigh in 10 years time but I can predict that if you eat a lot of burgers and don't do any exercise you will weigh more than if you eat healthily and go to the gym
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Glad we learnt that lesson
Chilcot begs gvt never again to embark on huge risky leaps of faith based on dodgy evidence and without solid planning
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This is 100% correct. And very difficult for officials to recommend awarding a contract to anyone except the lowest bidder. If you take this stuff in house all you will get is more expensive public services for taxpayers. What's needed is a more sustainable contracting system
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Dumbo will be airborne before Brexit
Dumbo, "Taking off March 29". Disney are trolling the UK
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Blaming the OBR for forecast errors is like blaming the Met office - that's why they're forecasts. Still better than independents & previous Treasury forecasts which were controlled by ministers for political convenience. & no evidence OBR underestimates the impact of tax cuts.
💷 Senior Tories warn Hunt that OBR errors may hamper UK’s economic recovery
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