Razia Khan 📚
@raziakkhan
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Chief Economist, Africa & Middle East. All views own. Tweets in personal capacity. RTs are not endorsements. Tweets RT'd for info.📚100MostInfluentialAfricans
London, Africa, Middle East
Joined January 2012
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Pinned Tweet
Thank you so much - it is such an honour to receive this award. With thanks to all the wonderful people who made this journey possible.
Congratulations to
@raziakkhan
, recognised as the Banker Icon at the African Banker Awards! Your exceptional leadership and influence in the banking industry are truly remarkable.
#AfricanBankerAwards
🏆🌍
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Nigeria gets donated vaccines that are near the expiry date then gets slammed for not being able to use them in time.
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My son to me: Today at school they had a Nigeria-themed catering day!
Me: Oh, did you have Jollof? (His favourite)
Son: They tried!
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There is nothing in the interview that Nigeria’s Finance Minister did with Bloomberg that speaks to anything like a default. Nigeria is NOT exploring a debt restructuring.
Thoughts here:
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Transnet looking at Lagos-Kano line and PH-Maiduguri line as part of consortium.
Negotiating a long term concession, but in process of looking at interim solutions.
Transnet believes that if it has to be anywhere in the continent, it has to be in Nigeria.
#FTAfrica
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This is going to be my next dinner party idea. Everyone brings along a favourite book wrapped in brown paper, with a brief description on the cover. Everyone leaves with a book. Who’s in?
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2018 Reading resolutions:
1. Read more History
2. Read more Economics
3. Read more diverse fiction
4. Read great literature published in the past (which the books sections of newspapers tend to ignore)
5. Just read more
6. Write/publish more as well
7. Get some sleep
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What have I learned from the COVID crisis so far? That Africa needs much more manufacturing capacity of its own and that policy needs to start taking this seriously
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Please say a du’aa (prayer) for my father - who is in ICU tonight.
Alhamdulillah, I am so grateful I got to see him earlier. He smiled when he recognised me, and seemed to be doing a lot better.
I am praying for the best. I appreciate all your good wishes.
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Republic of Buy-side. Claremont, Cape Town. A city of unrivalled beauty.
#VisitSouthAfrica
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Thank you so much! I am truly honoured to have my work recognised with this award.
It has been (& it still is!) the privilege of a lifetime to work on Africa and economics.
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#WorldBank
on
#Nigeria
. In 1990, 3 in 10 Nigerians had access to piped water. By 2015, this was less than 1 in 10
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Kenya has long had more economic complexity than Angola - and that counts for a whole lot more than just GDP size
Kenya surpasses Angola as sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest economy
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Fascinating chapter on the bias that can occur in development planning.
When women in Bangladesh rejected new cookstoves that prolonged cooking time (making it difficult to multitask), “the main and repeated recommendation...was to fix the women, rather than the stoves”
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“I have news for you. Africa is not fiction. Africa is people, real people. Have you thought of that? You are brilliant people. World experts. You may even have the very best intentions. But have you thought, really thought, of Africa as people?”
-Chinua Achebe to economists
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AfDB President
@akin_adesina
setting the record straight: “we have not lost a single dollar” on infrastructure investment in Africa’s ‘fragile states’
#UKAfricaInvestmentSummit
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Fitch downgrades Egypt to B-; outlook stable
Fitch affirms Nigeria at B-; outlook stable
Says reforms in Nigeria (fuel, FX) are taking place faster than they anticipated
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The book I suspect I will be saving for vacation reading. (Nothing like a good history book to start any vacation)
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IMF on Nigeria: consolidated govt revenue-to-GDP remains among the lowest in the world - at 7.5%
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Ok, where does one start.
1) The price of oil collapsed in Nov 2014, w/ no OPEC agreement to support prices
2) Nigeria hadn't saved much of the windfall from when oil prices were in triple digits
3) In Feb 2015, the authorities froze the NGN, pushing demand to the parallel mkt
When GEJ was President and Fuel was available at N87, Rice at N7,500, Dollar @ N198 etc...he went round to Markets & BRT Buses to campaign against GEJ.
Today he is VP, we are buying Fuel at over N200/L, while he is at home wearing Christmas cap and shinning teeth with his wife.
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Tanzania’s new president says she will stand firm against corruption. She has dismissed the DG of the port authority to allow for an investigation- and has requested a special audit of all funds disbursed to development projects this year - Rtrs
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No FX for food or fertiliser can only succeed in fuelling a parallel market for FX.
Not sure how this can work.
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‘Routinely sleeping less than 6 or 7 hrs a night demolishes your immune system, more than doubling your risk of cancer’.
We should all read this - and sleep more.
Excellent book, much recommended.
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CBN Governor’s speech at CIBN dinner ends.
Excellent initiatives unveiled - inflation targeting to be formally introduced.
New FX rules coming (following extensive consultation with banks). CBN committed to market forces determining the FX rate.
👏🏽
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People tend to forget that Nigeria’s weaker growth post-2014 was something shared by all oil producers, even those with higher wealth levels and higher accumulated savings that could act as a buffer.
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Dear God
Forgive me for reading this. Forgive me, please, for laughing.
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A delightful book for anyone who writes for a living.
A good rule: use words that are within every literate person’s vocabulary
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Hello Twitter. I want everyone in my family, all of my team, all of my Twitter friends, absolutely everyone to read this book because it is so life alteringly good!
#WhyWeSleep
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🧵 It would be really helpful if folk everywhere started to see inflation for what it really is - the amount that govt is taking from you every year, without having to do much else
Unlike other forms of taxation, there’s little benefit to v.high inflation - and yes, it’s a tax
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Nigerians are the Americans of Africa, you know. We sort of overshadow everyone else in a way, and there’s a certain kind of aggressive confidence that seems to me particularly Nigerian - Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie in
@FT
‘Investing in Nigeria’ supplement
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Bright full moon in the sky means that it is the 15th Ramadan - and my birthday! (According to the lunar calendar, I’m ageing faster - much relief in being younger than I thought).
Happy birthday to me :-)
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But neither the FX rate nor the level of the fuel subsidy were exactly sustainable back then - and the reported backlog of FX demand was vast.
And we still don’t know where net FX reserves were, back then.
Reform is painful - yes, but it has to start somewhere
Just a reminder, Fuel was N197 per Litre while naira to dollar rate was
#460
on the morning of May 29, 2023.
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Sorry BBC - your choice of wording in this headline makes the Hisbah sound like some sort of official Federal Govt institution. This is misleading.
Anyone could mistakenly read as this as ‘Nigerian police’
Nigerian Islamic police arrest non-fasting Muslims during Ramadan
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World Bank approves USD 2.25bn loan for Nigeria following reforms
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Thank you everyone for your prayers. Thankfully my father is stable and doing better. You’ve all helped a great deal and I am immensely grateful
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It’s always grating how the entire conversation about African economies has evolved into a single issue- debt. There is and always has been, so much more to SSA economies.
This singular thinking is so very dull.
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IMF Art iv on Nigeria: the Dangote refinery, if production starts in 2022 as planned, could meet the full demand for domestic consumption of refined petroleum products
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It never ceases to surprise me how countries with no meaningful revenue base still manage to give some of it away in an election year
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It’s always possible to stay at one’s desk,working, but the brain health book said to have screen-free unwinding time at the end of each day. So this is the ‘unwind’. Group read of
#Mahfouz22
in March - will you join in?
#TheCairoTrilogy
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My
#mustread
economics choice by
@BrankoMilan
. It got rave reviews in the
#FT
, which described it as 'outstanding'
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The best economics book I have read so far this year. Also a necessary reminder of just how much of Africa’s post-2001 boom may have been (partly) made in China
#GlobalImbalances
#TradeWarsAreClassWars
(Ok, so I still have trouble with the title)
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“
@iMehreenSyed
: A smile is the best way to deal w/ trouble even if it’s fake ”
Morning inspiration?
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Er, no
The problem: borrowing externally (because it IS cheap, and easy) with no sustainable plan for how to raise the revenues to repay the debt. No concrete plan even for comfortable refinancing
Debt service to revenue is increasingly problematic
That’s a key credit metric
African countries aren’t borrowing too much—they’re just having to pay too much for debt
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Well done President Ramaphosa for decisive action!
21 day lockdown announced from midnight Thursday
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Nigeria moving in a much more reformist direction - to consider VAT on gasoline according to the Finance Minister.
This will add to long-term economic resilience. Essential to build more of a revenue base.
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The CBN announces it will no longer sell FX to BDCs, many of which have been operating beyond their mandates (selling FX wholesale, flouting FX regulations). Commercial banks to take on BDC functions going forward. It is hoped that wholesale FX transactions return to I&E window
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So lunch today was a stir-fry from
#Kenya
. (Yes, I know about the use-by date. Been a busy week. This was perfectly fine) From the
#VeggieLeanin15
book by
@thebodycoach
, while I read about the recovery in horticulture and floriculture
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Well done Nigeria! USD 900mn raised in local USD bond.
Hopefully it will be cheaper to issue a Eurobond (bigger pool of creditors)
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‘Africa’ is a big place - but still, how beautiful.
Alignment of 5 planets, Earth, Mars, Venus, Saturn and Jupiter, as seen from Africa at 4 am.
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Done! Reading goal of 72 books completed this year. (From Sept to early Dec, I had stalled on 57).
Now I can take my time and enjoy the last book of the year!
#LoveReading
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This headline is very misleading. It is entirely normal for an economy like Kenya to source concessional, quasi-concessional, and commercial funds to finance projects/ other spending priorities.
Kenya is NOT broke
Investors are aware of World Bank borrowing intent.
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Throwback Thursday. LSE undergrad days when we could afford to do the ‘all you can eat’ £3.99 pizza buffet in nearby Covent Garden.
(Oh dear, does that reveal the year?)
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IMF: Five countries in SSA account for 60% of China’s outstanding loans to the region - Angola, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya and South Africa
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Breaking news headline: IMF to recommend USD3.4bn emergency funding for Nigeria
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I must stop buying books
I must stop buying books
I must stop buying books
....I can’t
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4) Moreover the Fin Min made clear that Nigeria would only consider international capital market issuance when market conditions improve.
It seems safe to conclude therefore that no ‘restructuring’ was intended.
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No - it’s because the parallel market overshot and prices kept being hiked. Question why the parallel market overshot when the backlog started to be addressed, monetary policy was tightened and inflows improved
Nigerian inflation surged to a 28-high in February after the authorities allowed the naira to weaken again
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1. President Masire was the main architect of what may have been Africa's most successful economic transition.
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OK
@WSJ
- I’m disappointed by this article
1) Investors and capital did not flee South Africa in Q12018 - quite the contrary
2) Land restitution is not about ‘snatching’ private property
via
@WSJOpinion
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Nigeria Cabinet approves USD 3.45bn World Bank IDA loan with 40Y tenor.
The headlines today have been non-stop
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Common Nigerian phrases and expressions
(This section had me in stitches, especially the earlier bit which I am not going to tweet)
From
@elnathan_john
’s new book - which you must buy
Thank you for getting me through book no. 50 this year
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Fully vaccinated as of this morning
Still able to type :-)
Grateful
Let’s keep working to ensure vaccine access for all
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What coffee looks like around the world
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@ikoreal2005
I don’t cook anything very well! But luckily the families of my son’s classmates do
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Views :-)
Kenya wins at marketing because everyone thinks that Tanzania’s famous landmarks are in Kenya
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A Kenya GDP rebasing will not, on its own, alter debt service-to- revenue metrics
Kenya is planning to rebase GDP after Eurobond issue later in the year.
Expected higher GDP figures will help improve the country’s debt-to-GDP ratios and justify higher debt load.
— Business Daily
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My view on tonight’s messages from the CBN: positive overall.
While there’s still a lot of work to be done, there have been important steps in the right direction.
My view too: hopefully the FX rules will be clarified soon, and complemented by continuing tightening
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Happy Ramadan birthday to me
(well, strictly speaking it starts in an hour - but I may be busier then)
Made it - Alhamdulillah 🙂
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Can’t find the right words
Turkish photographer Mehmet Aslan has won “photo of the year” at the Siena International Photo Awards 2021 with this picture of a Syrian refugee boy and his father in Reyhanli, Turkey. via
@Saeed_Alnahhal
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Kenya isn’t ‘broke’
Seeking IMF assistance at a time when the economy has suffered multiple shocks (and Kenya was seeking a stand-by arrangement even prior to Covid) is sensible.
Also an anchor for fiscal policy
Get the Business Daily e-paper at KES 20/- per day. Click to access and read today's copy of the newspaper.
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Why reading fiction creates good leaders | Letter
(Also - leaders who read fiction benefit from the lived experience of many, many more. Why would anyone who never reads fiction - or history - be able to see the big picture?)
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That one time in lockdown (today), when I decided I would cut my own hair...
#Fearless
(or mad)
PS. Salons have re-opened, but economists are still busy
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“In 2018, for the first time in human history, the global population over 64 was greater than the number of children below 5”
“..in Japan by 2100, only half the population will work, and the other half will be old or young”
#WhatWeOweEachOther
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Please RT if you ever managed to get meaningful work done at an airport, favourite if you think I should just read a book
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South Africa receives USD 1bn loan from the BRICS bank (New Development Bank)
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1. Being the biggest economy in Africa is relatively meaningless in the overall scheme of things. It does not on its own magically guarantee investment, productivity growth, full employment, or rising standards of living for its inhabitants
2. Already SA, due to ZAR strength
Watching which country in Africa would be the largest economy and the fastest growung by the (magical) year 2020
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Fascinating research on why we make the decisions that we make.
Are we giving too much weight to the first information received?
As an economist, the ‘confirming evidence’ trap is where I’m particularly wary. (Of course I will give importance to the data that suits my theory..)
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After this crisis, remember the NHS is not drained by migrants, but sustained by them | Nesrine Malik
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MHSRIP. He built one of the most credible central banks in the region. So sad to hear this news
Uganda Central Bank Governor E. Tumusiime-Mutebile, Jan. 27, 1949 - Jan. 23, 2022. Disliked by those who were for a parasitic command economy, Emmanuel believed in Ugandan grit. That in a free market, they could engineer a dramatic economic recovery. He was RIGHT. RIP. /1/
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So I went a little crazy with the book buying from
@HurstPublishers
(but hey - they had a sale on). Anyway much to get into over this coming long weekend
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Well done Kenya - it would be great to see many more African countries lifting visa requirements for other Africans.
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Botched railway in Africa a warning to belt and road investors
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Nigeria’s Central Bank confirms that official transactions are done at rate now shown on website. Nigeria has a managed float - it is still managed
(& yes, in de facto terms, that means FX harmonisation has happened)
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Dear book reading Twitter friends
What is the funniest book you’ve ever read?
The sort of thing that is guaranteed to make someone laugh even if they’re not heading home over Christmas (and the days are 7 hours shorter, and 20-30 degrees cooler than they should be)
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I’m calling it my ‘Book of the decade’
Just read it, ok!
#WhyWeSleep
by Matthew Walker
Book number 54 is completed after a lovely bi-phasic early afternoon nap
I’m also setting a mental alarm clock for bedtime from now on.
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