Aligned, but the biggest issue is 99% of non-meme tokens have no real tokenomics. If you don’t have any revenue to fund staking and buyback/lock, then in the long run, they are outside boom times, going to junk status. If you have consistently increasing lock up & buy back, and real protocol fees, they will appreciate in value. It’s no accident that BNB, Solana and TRD are really the only ones moving to new highs cycle after cycle. The market will do its thing, and give L1s a huge MC based on future revenues even many many years out. But ultimately, you can’t beat economics (unless you’re Cardano).

@hrojantorse Yeah dude, it’s satire LOL

Loved this. Tell me what you think!

All things @KAST_official and stablecoins, with Drew Rogers! —- Available on YouTube & Spotify: YouTube: Spotify:

@HadickM @JupiterExchange @HyperliquidX @aave @ethena_labs Agreed. Now just have to wrap these mofos in pretty UX/UI and end to end experience.

@calilyliu The fake tan contrast is hard to unsee once seen.

“Microstrategy Maths” I’m going to give you a simplified version of how Microstrategy stock works. Part A: The beginning You need a strong free cashflow business, in this case security software, which is almost guaranteed to never go out of business or decline. This was $MSTR in 2019 worth approx $4B, on about $100-200m/yr free cashflow. You then borrow against this free cashflow, and buy Bitcoin. Initially let’s say $3B. If the Bitcoin goes to zero, you’re deep in debt but have a software business to keep paying the debt, albeit you’ve wiped out nearly all shareholder value. Bold Bet. But if Bitcoin prices go let’s say 4X, then the Bitcoin holdings alone is worth $12B or $9B ex-debt, and the company is worth 3X the original value (net asset basis). Note - the original company had no chance of going up 3X as people just didn’t love their software (but customers also can’t get rid of it, as it’s entrenched with Enterprise, thus cash flows are long term steady). The original company was really only good for raising debt, to take a riskier bet. Michael Saylor did exactly this, and even in the 2022 crash when the Bitcoin price was worth less than his average buy price (something like $30K average buy price vs $16K lows), he had debt servicing coverage from his security business to service the debt. The key - Never let net debt, get to a place where you can’t cover it be selling some BTC and service the rest with cashflow from the software business. Part B: Leverage up market expectations The initial debt based buying of BTC holdings, let the market forward trade the stock. Thus the premium in a rising BTC environment. Momentum traders especially bid it up, similar to an out-of-the money call option contract. As the stock traded at 2X or 3X underlying value, Saylor would sell equity and pay down debt. Yes this dilutes equity a little bit. But then he often would issue new convertible debt, to buy more Bitcoin. Which makes the market forward trade the stock on “what if like before, BTC goes 5X.” The recent notes typically have 0% interest and have an option to convert at a 65% premium to the current stock price in 3 years. Essentially convertible’s issued right now - are a 2027 call option, for which instead of the buyer paying money, they simply sacrifice three years interest. And they get debt instead of an option, so little chance of it going to zero. Very strong proposition for the buyer. Saylor - he gets cash to buy Bitcoin now, and leverage the upside of BTC into a bigger position. As of Feb 1, $MSTR roughly looks like this… Market Cap: $84B BTC holdings (BTC=$100k): $50B Debt: $5B Average value of BTC purchased: $32.5B Part C: The fall What happens in a steep fall? As of right now, not much. Let’s say BTC goes down 80% to $20k (very dramatic). $MSTR Bitcoin holdings would be worth $10B and debt worth $5B. The BTC would only be worth net $5B, but remember they still have the software business worth $4B or so. And this assumes they don’t convert some of the debt to stock on the way down, to reduce debt right down. Eg. They just converted about $1B at $142 (way below $334 currently). You see everyone thinks Saylor is taking stupid bets, but actually he is being cautious. When his “call option” stock trades at a big premium, he sells equity/debt and buys more BTC. That increases his BTC base, which increase the potential forward market cap. When the premium narrows, he sells equity or converts debt (like he just did), to manage his debt conservatively. Through the ebbs and flows he has managed to load up his balance sheet with tons of BTC (500K or 2.5% of all BTC). Looking at the numbers as of today - it’s hard to see an insolvency event. Saylor has taken risk off the table at the right times. BUT - if BTC towards $70K, you would expect the premium to fall substantially. The underlying BTC would be worth $35B. The current market cap is $84B. You do the maths…

RT @balajis: It might turn out that the GPT wrapper has more of a moat than GPT.

@calilyliu @KAST_official May not. Ideally not! DM’ing you

@BillyTheKief @KAST_official Q2 or Q3

“Why do people use USD Stablecoins?” 1/ Consumer USD As the banking system in ~150 countries doesn’t allow you to openly buy dollars or hold a USD account. Thus swap local currency for USD stablecoins, and then buy imports or spend abroad - made easier by loading it onto a Visa/MasterCard. 2/ Blackmarket USD > Local If you’re dollar rich in an EM, as you work for an overseas company or sell exports, you get the USD into stablecoins (eg. via Deel), and then swap them into local currency at a premium (sometimes even 2X) on the grey market, compared to local bank rates 3/ Offshore bank account Stablecoins are effectively an alternative to having an offshore bank account, and just when foreigners opening an account in traditional hubs like Singapore, HK, London, Switzerland have become impossibly difficult. The more offshorey banks in the Caribbean have also become less trust worthy. Also don’t underestimate the large amount of Americans avoiding FBAR. 4/ Remittance Rails User wants to send money from Country A (Nigeria) to Country B (Hong Kong). Remittance company sits in the middle and will make it look simple by just letting you fund locally, but then take the Naira, swap it to USDT on grey market, send to large offramper in Singapore, who does third-party payout to end consumer bank account. 6/ Crypto trading outflow You trade non-custodial because fuck paying tax, and then you need to keep to money in dollar equivalents so you exit Crypto into stables, and then spend or save. These people are the only ones really seeking yielding stablecoins, rest are just happy to have dollar equivalents. 6/ Get money the f*ck out of China, by any means possible - Self explanatory 🤣 - Massive - USDT on Tron/ETH

Happy CNY, from the DeepSeek team 🤣

Deepseek is very humble.

ETH to boom on “Founder Capitulation” This is my thesis on why I’m buying ETH, and why I liken it to buying META when it went sub-$100. At the time, Mark Zuckerberg was all in on the Metaverse and as controlling shareholder with tons of money, he could literally bet big on whatever the f*ck he wanted. But my thesis was this. Eventually, the market tells the founder what to do, even if he has complete control. Founders tend to think they are right, but sometimes they are wrong (on strategy or timing). Even the most Zen of founders have egos, and they hate being seen as a basket case, and will eventually change tack. At sub-$100 Zuck capitulated, he cut >40% of employees, largely dumped the Metaverse and much more. The market had also way underpriced Facebook/Meta. Meta subsequently went up 600% in 2 years. We now have the same reckoning with ETH and @VitalikButerin His recent Twitter posting clearly shows he is very pissed off, and very much getting into action mode. Justin Sun also drove this further with proposed changes to push ETH >$10k. In this post attached (about something related to the foundation), he even implies only he calls the shots for Ethereum. Considering Ethereum preaches being decentralised, this is sharp language. Founder capitulation to the market sentiment, is right upon us. I for one, love it. @VitalikButerin is back. And similarly to META… ETH is very underpriced, still 30% below 2021 ATH’s whilst Bitcoin is 50% above. ETH also has all the liquidity mechanisms in place for mass buying, like ETFs. When ETH wakes up, the reflex action on the trade is going to be violent to the upside. And I’m betting, it’s very soon - definitely within this quarter, but perhaps just days or weeks away. Time will tell.

@philip0x It’s good in theory, but the businesses want cashflow and don’t have time to hold their stablecoins long enough to get yield.

I think @JupiterExchange might need to call their AWS or Google Account Manager.