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@quant_xbt
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@fabulous3336699
@fesshole
Can a person really live 20 years without such a simple deduction?
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@TikTokInvestors
Do it but 18 times and you’ll become a billionaire. What a mediocre mindset.
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HFT with Rust is cool, but have you ever HFT'd the crypto markets for almost 7 years w/o a losing month using 97.4% JavaScript?
Don't let big accounts discourage you from trying a new path just because you're not a Rust/C++ savant. Find an edge and focus on what really matters.
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You would think an exchange whose slogan is "The most trusted cryptocurrency trading platform" would at least hide the account ids of the makers and takers of the orders when wash trading. And you would be wrong.
LMAO
@BitMartExchange
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A large crypto derivatives market maker definitely blew up (or left crypto, at least). Anyone else noticed it in the books?
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A cool thing about HFT is that if done correctly, your equity curve will steadily trend upwards with a positive skew.
Most of our infrastructure is built on JavaScript and this is actual performance, not a backtest.
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The greatest FOMO I'll ever experience is opening Twitter and see a tweet that caught my attention, only to immediately lose it forever when the app updates the timeline.
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As a general rule, people won’t leak alpha on Twitter. But every once in a while, someone will tweet massive alpha for the sake of clout, even at their own expense. After all, we are still social creatures.
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Instead of learning how to trade, you should learn how to determine the fair price for an asset. Doing so will not only make trading easy but obvious.
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Ever since I started my trading career, I’ve been a strong advocate for automated quantitative trading methods. I don’t believe in TA, and I think pure discretionary trading is a losing game for 99% of the people.
However, having spent the last seven years of my life looking at
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Live testing new MM algo. Stepped downstairs to grab dinner, returned upstairs - account already liquidated. AMA.
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If you are super young and feel like you’re not being taken seriously by older people, know they are correct, and your brain is not fully developed yet. It sucks, but they’re right; you are stupid and inexperienced, you’ll see in a few years.
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I received some pushback about my opinions of TA, so I want to say this: If you've cracked the secret to TA and you're making money off of it, keep doing it no matter what, extract as much money off the markets as you can, and don't let anyone tell you it doesn't work.
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If you start with a portfolio of $100 and make a simple return of 50% but then lose 50% over that portfolio, you end up with a portfolio now worth $75.
This issue is one of the main reasons why log returns are used in finance.
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Alpha leak: trade a market where people commenting on this post are your counterparties.
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The problem with technical indicators and drawings in charts for signal generation is that if they had any predictive value, any linear model would’ve picked up the relation already. If TA was to have any value, I assure you it’s not price prediction.
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It's hard to beat a simple OLS regression for most applications in trading.
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Backtesting is only valuable for discarding absolute trash strategies, but nothing more.
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If you treat trading as a job, you’ll have a hard time winning against those who treat it as a video game. Investing may benefit everyone, but make no mistake, trading is PvP.
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At 22.4k, our algos went short (~10% net exposure). I "felt" 22.4k was a place to be net long but of course didn't do anything about it. For the 1000th time, I was wrong, and our algos were right. Fortunately zero of our trades give a fuck about how I feel.
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Today I fat-fingered a 750k position causing a significant loss. Gonna go out and touch some grass.
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AWS bill came in so high my bank blocked the charge for the first time in 6 years. Bull market is real.
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They put "retired" or "semi-retired" in their bio to signal they're rich. Truth is, they aren't. No one can retire from the markets, especially if you've cracked the formula to multiply your net worth by millions with just a few trades each year.
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I live 100% off my trading. I’ve got nothing to sell, no courses, no paid groups, nothing. However, I don’t think everyone selling trading education is a charlatan. Most are true, but there’s quality paid content out there. Principles can be taught without explicitly leaking
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We are at a strange point where people whose work requires very few hard skills mock people who use ChatGPT frequently, but people who use it frequently know the joke's on them. For me personally, to say that GPT-4 increased my output by 10x would be an understatement.
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New trading infrastructure outperforming our previous infra so strongly that instead of being happy, I'm incredibly anxious about all the time we could've been trading with it. I guess it's part of the process.
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Billion dollar idea: create a platform that allows inexperienced people to trade financial markets through an easy to use app that charges no fees, then sell the orders of those people to large firms that are willing to pay to trade against them.
Oh wait.
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Binance owning CoinMarketCap and giving themselves a 9.9 trust score while giving Coinbase, its second competitor in the list; a 7.8 has to be one of the lowest things Binance has done to undermine its competitors.
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Because volatility had been so low, we decided it was a good time to halt all of our trading and begin the infra migration.
Today 🤡.
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FWIW if we all die in Dubai right now a decent amount of crypto would be taken out of circulation so I’d be bidding here.
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Every trading firm should have a set of strategies that generate consistent cash flow and another set with the potential for a call option-like payoff.
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The worst trade in my career was something that looked like an arb but wasn’t.
These types of trades are toxic, and they can blow up your account because of how easy it is to size them up.
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You really have no idea how AI works if you think AI can be somehow done using blockchain.
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This is an irrelevant stat, but I just found out today that the average lifespan of our trading strategies is around 61 days.
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I swear that some exchanges' APIs are so bad and poorly documented that you get an edge just by being among those who didn't give up developing with them.
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After years of having it on my reading list, I finally finished The Intelligent Investor. I can confidently say that according to B. Graham, not only am I not an intelligent investor, but likely I am a very retarded investor. I felt personally offended throughout the entire book.
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Never put yourself in a position where you are forced to trade when you don't want to. Trade against people who are forced to trade when they don't want to.
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The pushback I get when I talk about the simple stuff I've used in my trading, despite living off them for years, just shows me there are many ways to make money in trading and crypto and I possibly took the lowest IQ approach.
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Some of you are too young to remember but on a day like today, four years ago, Sir Arthur Hayes sacrificed everything he had so that Bitcoin didn't go to zero. We will always be grateful.
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People will tell you to avoid leverage, especially the successful ones. They won’t tell you that they used some form of leverage to get to where they are. Leverage is critical to wealth building, but you must be smart about it.
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A professor once told me that the true definition of quality is doing the least amount of work necessary for the product or service to be accepted by the requester. Any effort beyond that threshold is simply waste on your end.
I think about this often.
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The good thing about trading momentum is that you don't actually need to predict anything, you just go along with the price.
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Trading profitably is difficult because, most of the time, markets are efficient and give you nothing to do, no matter how good your model is. Profitable trading begins with understanding the difference between "most of the time" and "always."
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An issue with
@BitMEX
matching engine almost bankrupted one of our live testing accounts. Loss was tiny because the account was tiny but the implications are substantial for the rest of our trading. Seriously considering pulling out our funds.
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You'd be surprised how many believe casinos make money because they rig the tables/machines. Really makes you think.
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Give a man a long and you feed him for a day. Teach a man how to properly price different kind of funding rates and you feed him for a lifetime.
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I genuinely think a Kalman filter is a good fit for the data I'm working with, but now thanks to quant twitter I feel too dirty to even try it. Quant twitter has no mercy man.
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@lightspringfox
Our edge is so simple that you have no idea how strong of an impostor syndrome I feel when I read tweets like this.
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We've been exploiting a niche market for the past two and a half years, and no one seems to care. Business is booming.
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The essential problem with most trading-related academic papers is their oversimplification of critical factors such as return distribution, fees, and order impact, which are crucial for performance.
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@letmehedge
Less liquidity, larger spreads, fundings not getting arb'd as much, and our maker market share increased w/o any infrastructure or model improvements.
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It's rare to find articles or papers with real alpha. Most offer untradable ideas or vague concepts. But occasionally, you find something so good, that you can't help but ask, why the fuck is the author sharing this? Aren't they trading themselves?
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Why would anyone execute OTC trades for sub 1 mill size on BTC or ETH when they could just hit the Binance OB using a market order and still get a better price? Rarely do I need to execute size in a single order but I recently did 1.5 mill for BTC and got less than 6bps slippage.
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Everyone in the industry knows that the less sophisticated players there are, the better it is for them; that's why they'll do whatever they can to make it seem impossible to break into it. Yes, it's hard, but that should be a feature for you.
HFT with Rust is cool, but have you ever HFT'd the crypto markets for almost 7 years w/o a losing month using 97.4% JavaScript?
Don't let big accounts discourage you from trying a new path just because you're not a Rust/C++ savant. Find an edge and focus on what really matters.
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I don't know why this isn't obvious to every crypto exchange but every single transaction (trade, transfer, withdrawal, deposit, etc.) should generate a record that is retrievable by the user at a later point in the future.
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If you enjoy complexity for the sake of complexity that’s fine, I respect that, just know that you’ll need to be among the top 1% in your niche to make it that way and beat the simple stuff that still works with crypto.
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I'll go as far as leaking the algorithm we use to trade in plain English so you can replicate this alpha at your discretion.
If current price is lower than fair price: buy.
If current price is higher than fair price: sell.
If current price is fair price: do nothing.
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The fact that GPT-4 currently costs only $20 a month troubles me. Many people would pay $1000+ per month to use it (myself included). I think they're trying to get us hooked and then increase the price by 100x. They know people would pay for it.
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Our
@HTX_Global
account manager contacted us to invite us to a special event in Dubai and sponsored access to
@BlLife_Forum
. We accepted the invitation the next day. Two weeks later she's telling us they no longer have tickets to provide us to the conference and she jokes about
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Single men who refuse to get married for financial reasons have yet to look at the numbers. Being married is +EV financially.
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If you’ve made billions thanks to your backtesting, ignore me and keep doing your thing. Maybe I’m just a larp who doesn’t know what he’s saying.
Backtesting is only valuable for discarding absolute trash strategies, but nothing more.
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If you're diamond holding a bag, every once in a while check the perp funding rates, if you find them to be very negative (-0.30% or less), sell your spot bag for USDT and go long the USDT perp the same amount, you'll gain the same directional exposure + collect the funding fees.
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I don't do directional trading for a living, but two things I've learned over the years are that it's ok to buy when everyone thinks we're going to zero, and that buying at a discount is better than buying at a premium.
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I’m amongst those who say 100 basis points instead of one percent. I know it sounds stupid but I think it’s a normal progression when you’re used to work with quantities less than 0.1%, it’s easier to say one basis point instead of zero point zero one percent.
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You think too highly of yourself if you think you are low IQ. You know you are not high IQ but you want to believe you are on the left side at the curve. The truth is you are mid at most.
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It seems like a great time to remind you that stop losses produce -EV, and you shouldn’t include them in your trading system.
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The source of my impostor syndrome is that most of what I do was learned empirically, and I looked for the theory later to make more sense of my observations and experience. I'm not sure if this path would work for everyone, but it has worked for me so far.
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Mean reversion strategies in crypto are hard because many large one-direction moves eat up all your small gains. I wonder if there was a way to gain on those large movements while losing very little when the asset is not trending in one direction.
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@pescara121
@robtfrank
@ScottMStedman
@jack
@elonmusk
Is Elon Musk killing humans with his acquisition or
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Even for a non-discretionary trader like me, it kinda felt like XMR dumping 40% because it was delisted from Binance was an overreaction, especially given that it's one of the few coins that's legitimately used every day and its followers are hardcore anti-establishment. As long
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I hate this platform so much.
There's only one other time in
#Bitcoin
's existence when it had tighter 5D compression.
It was 12 years ago and price was $5.
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People are often surprised I still trade on platforms like Huobi. True, more liquid venues are better for occasional, mostly taker trades. But for market-neutral strategies, here’s some alpha: where/what you trade matters more than how you trade.
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Some people think the ETF is not a big deal because compared to gold prior an ETF, Bitcoin is already accessible to most so anyone who wants exposure can already get it. While this is true, my view is that the ETF is not really about access, but rather about validation.
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Whenever you think you’ve found an arb, always make sure you understand, at least generally, what is the reason for mispricing.
You’ll often find that the market price is right and you’re either missing information or are mispricing risk.
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The only (barely) acceptable emojis in a professional context are 👍 and ✅. Anything else is a no-go.
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Wife asked me to take out the clothes from the washer and put them in the dryer, so I did. Then she was mad when she came home because I didn’t turn the dryer on, but she never asked me to do so. This is what programming took away from her.
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Align your strategy with what you do best, whether it's low fees, fast tech, or sharp models. If you're trying to beat the market in areas you're not strong in, you're playing a losing game.
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Quite the opposite, if you ask me.
Fixed it.
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The midwit meme isn’t funny if the low iq and the high iq don’t say the same thing. Please stop exposing your poor meme taste in my timeline.
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Imagine getting publicly short at 20k with a 40% target (12k) to see the price move up against you 40% (28k) and still claiming you're still somehow right.
Crystal ballers on Twitter are so fucking cringe.
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You won't find market edge in textbooks because edge decays with time as more and more capital is poured into it. Most of the time, capital is fast to find known inefficiencies. However, this is only sometimes the case. Being swift to try new things is an edge in itself.
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@gladstein
I want to agree with you, but having lived in a place controlled by gangs most of my life with too many close acquaintances losing their lives to violent crime changes your view on this topic, especially when everything on the books has been tried already w/o success.
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100 0.1 BTC orders generate the same amount of volume as one 10 BTC order, yet one produced 100x more requests than the other. Volume can be lower and still have higher engine activity.
🐂💩⚠️🚨 Fascinating $COIN says the trading suspension was due to a large surge in volume crashing the servers...when trade volume has been just as high, and often higher, multiple times just over the past several weeks.
@brian_armstrong
why don't you tell the truth.
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This is especially true for highly complex alphas, where the sharer values intellectual status over financial forms of status.
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Coin-marginated swaps are among the most beautiful degen financial engineering instruments we've had in the last 10 years.
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The more you use limit orders, the more you appreciate market orders.
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To reach a 100M market cap, a Solana meme coin needs just one-hundredth of the capital that a single ICO used to raise back in 2017.
It's very easy to get a 100M valuation with just 1M of inflows. Isn't it obvious to everyone that "market caps" are irrelevant?
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The worst trade of my career was an “arbitrage” that wasn’t. Big size, high confidence, just terrible.
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No one will tell you to trade X against Y to make a profit. Leaking this type of alpha would come at their own expense, but you can still find some alpha by reading someone else's ideas. It's easy to get stuck trying things that are familiar to you.
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Shilling an exchange that doesn't even have an API has to be a new low for crypto influencers.
Yes, I'm talking about Rollbit.
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Exchanges spend millions of dollars on influencers and referrals to increase their volumes when all they need is an API as good as that of BitMEX.
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We crash to the previous ATH after making an ATH *checks notes* yesterday, and y'all are already calling for 30k? LMAO.
You have yet to learn what peak euphoria really looks like. When euphoria kicks in, every dip is called "a dip to buy" and no one even considers the idea of a
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