QCP Capital
@qcpcapital
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Partnering the next generation of investors. #Bridging institutional and crypto ecosystems. Our Portfolio :
Singapore
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QCP Asia Colour – July 29, 2024
1/ Key Highlights from Tump’s Bitcoin Conference Speech⚡
If elected:
* The U.S. government will retain 100% of Bitcoin acquired from seized assets.
* Gary Gensler will be removed from office on day one.
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QCP Capital Recent Investment Projects⬇️
1.
@reposwap
2.
@grvt_io
3.
@KemetTrading
4.
@Membrane_Labs
5.
@galaxyfinance3
6.
@VestExchange
7.
@ArrowMarkets
8.
@nansen_ai
9.
@injective
10.
@_Dfyn
Check our portfolio here:
#Investment
#Qcp
#DeFi
#Web3
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QCP Macro Colour – July 31, 2024
Macro volatility has intensified. The NASDAQ has declined by 10% from its peak as the Magnificent 7 pulls back. FX carry trades like long USDJPY and short USDMXN are being unwound as volatility increases.
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QCP Asia Colour – 01 Aug 2024
1/ Key takeaway from yesterday’s FOMC is that the Fed is clearly leaning dovish: a September cut has been fully priced in.
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Welcome To Abu Dhabi
Thanks
@CoinDesk
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QCP Asia Colour - 14 Jun 24
1/ BTC is struggling to recover post-FOMC despite the strong momentum in equities.
Why the divergence? We think this is because BTC miners are undergoing the post-halving capitulation, directly capping the price.
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QCP Asia Market Color - 30 May 2024
1/
#BTC
defended the 67.1k level for the fourth time in 2 weeks, continuing its consolidation within the range.
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2/ We think price action could chop around here as the market digests fundamentals from the several macro events lined up this week:
Tue: US PPI, Powell to speak
Wed: CPI, Retail Sales
Thu: Unemployment Claims
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QCP Weekend Colour - 8 Jun 24
1. Strong upside surprise on NFP (272k vs 182k), higher payrolls that came with higher unemployment (from 3.9% to 4.0%). It was confusing enough to trigger a risk-off ahead of US inflation numbers and FOMC next Wed.
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Trade Ideas:
ETH Sep KIKOs(Knock-In,Knock-Out)
Sell 3000 Put w 2500 Knock-in (protection)
Buy 4500 Call w 6200 Knockout
Cost:0
Max payout: 175% pa or $1,700USD per ETH if spot expires just below 6200)
Downside: At expiry,if spot is below 2,500,you buy ETH at 3,000
Spot ref: 3780
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Congratulations
@reposwap
&
@pinkecosystem
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2/ 2. Bullish ETH - ETH spot ETFs could start trading earlier than expected in June with the SEC urging applicants to submit S-1 forms by 31 May
A sleepy market may get caught offside and our bet is on the bullish side, particularly for ETH.
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3/ ETH has been lagging on this move but we expect a catch up and possibly even outperformance against BTC when the ETH spot ETF begins trading.
There could also potentially be significant rotation from BTC ETF to ETH ETF, providing additional upward momentum for ETH.
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3/ Traders are shifting focus to higher beta meme tokens like Shiba Inu (SHIBA), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Pepe (PEPE), which have seen double-digit gains (10-20%) and are polling in the top 10 for Open Interest.
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5/ Buy ETH spot at 14.29% discount (3000) every week as long as spot is under 4070
Maturity: 1NOV24 (20 Weeks)
Strike: 3000 (-14.29%)
Upper Barrier: 4070 (+16.29%)
Observation Frequency: Weekly
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QCP Asia Colour - 16 May 2024
1/ US CPI numbers triggered a break out of the range across risk assets.
#BTC
has since traded back above 66k.
We expect bullish momentum here that could take us back to the highs of 74k.
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QCP London Colour - 10 July 24
1/ The macro backdrop has turned rosier over the past week, and we think crypto has bottomed as we were unable to break lower despite the huge selling pressure.
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QCP Asia and London Colour – 5 Jun 2024
1/
#BTC
spot ETF continues a 15-day inflow rampage with +$886.1m yesterday, the 2nd largest inflow since inception.
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Trade Idea
We continue to prefer strategies that provide convex payoffs!ETH Sharkfins & OTM ERKOs continue to be attractive, especially with ETH ETFs looking to be around the corner.
Bullish BTC Sharkfin
Maturity: 27DEC24
Strike: 61,000
Knockout: 80,000
Max Payout: 66.88% p.a.
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4/ BTC 80k 28-Jun
Payout is 5x if BTC spot price is above 80k at expiry.
(Spot ref: 71,000)
ETH 5k 28-Jun
Payout is 10x is ETH spot price is above 5k at expiry
(Spot ref: 3,800)
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2/ Uncertainty about potential Mt Gox BTC supply hitting the market by October could hinder BTC, potentially benefiting ETH upon the launch of the ETH Spot ETF.
The desk observes bullishness in ETH, with sizeable buyers of 4k/5k ETH Call Spreads for end June 2024.
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♐ For those holding onto
#BTC
(or ETH) longs and are looking to generate a meaningful yield, the deck below contains some possible strategies:
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QCP Weekend Brief – 2 Aug 24
This week saw the market rudely reversing the Trump crypto boost with BTC price retracing from the post-speech high of 70k to almost 60k this morning.
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Buy ETH spot at 13.5% discount (3200) every week as long as spot price is under 4400. Any collateral not used to accumulate ETH for that week will be returned.
For BTC and ETH holders, we have developed a bespoke deck outlining strategies for earning yield on your coin holdings
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We have received In-Principle Approval in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM)!
We announced that we have received In Principle Approval from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority in Abu Dhabi Global Market
@ADGlobalMarket
to conduct regulated activities
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Bitcoin Update Before Halving
In 2 days, Bitcoin will officially enter the "Danger Zone" (orange) where historical Pre-Halving Retraces have begun
Historically, Bitcoin has performed Pre-Halving Retraces 14-28 days before the Halving
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2/ Unfortunately, the rally in equities was not felt in crypto. Crypto experienced a broad sell-off overnight and into this morning. The market remains on edge as traders pay close attention to daily ETH ETF outflows and further supply pressures from Mt Gox and US government.
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4/ 3. Softer CPI numbers tomorrow could finally cement the Fed's decision to cut in Sep and Dec.
4. The flurry of S-1 revisions for ETH spot ETFs could also signal that trading is slated to happen soon. We believe it will happen this month, especially if applicants announce fee
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QCP Asia and London Colour – 3 Jun 2024
1/ The market remains stubbornly bullish in spite of negative headlines about Mt. Gox and the DMM hack last week, BTC rallied confidently above 69k today in Asia.
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QCP US Colour - 24 May 24
1/ What has happened with the ETH spot ETF?
Yesterday, the SEC approved Form 19b-4 for eight spot
#ETH_ETF
issuers including Blackrock and Fidelity but trading cannot begin until S-1 forms are approved.
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2. Followed by a Roaring Kitty live stream which had almost a million viewers, during which GME stock price crashed. It was probably not a coincidence that Alts and Memecoins started collapsing as well with over $40 billion wiped in market cap.
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QCP London and New York Colour – 11 Jun
Crypto markets have come under some pressure for the following reasons:
1. NFP numbers caught the market by surprise. US Treasury yields are at recent highs as Jul and Sep cuts are being priced out.
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6/ ETH Early Delivery Accumulator
You buy 12.5% of your deployment upfront at 3380 (11.4 discount to spot!). From the 5th week onwards, you buy at 3380 every Friday as long as spot price is below 4400.
Expiry: 20-SEP (16 weeks)
Strike: 3,380 (-11.4%)
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4/ BlackRock filed amended S-1 forms overnight, with other issuers likely to follow soon. Approval may come by early July.
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4/ The ETH spot ETF remains a bullish catalyst. It is likely to start trading in early July.
Additionally, spot ETFs for other majors like SOL will also trigger some excitement.
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5/ Trade Ideas:
Given the current steepness of the vol curve, we like building a coin position using a longer-tenor accumulator, capitalizing on the higher vols further out.
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4/ Currently ETH vols are trading at a 10 vol premium to BTC, and we expect the spread to narrow with ETH overwriters returning as we wait in anticipation of an S-1 Form approval late summer.
Spot Ref: 3500
ETH Accumulator
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5/Max payout:2,799 USD per ETH if ETH spot expires just below 6,800.
Downside:At expiry,if spot is below 3,000 then put is exercised and you buy ETH at 3,000.
2.BTC Spot-Forward Basis remains elevated despite the selloff today.Lock in 12% pa with zero downside held to end-Dec
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6/ Trade Idea
Recommend deploying into OTM ERKOs, anticipating a breakout with minimal cash outlay and zero downside risk.
BTC Call ERKO (60/70K 27-SEP)
Max Payout: $10,000 per BTC (6.1x) if BTC spot price is just below 70k at expiry
Cost: $1,650 per BTC
(Spot Ref: 57,600)
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3/ We're also seeing familiar ETH call over-writers buying back end-May calls in size.
Overall, nothing particularly meaningful as the market grinds in a narrowing range,
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1. The SEC is closing its investigation into Ethereum 2.0, ruling out any charges alleging that sales of ETH are securities transactions
2. Prospective issuers of Ethereum ETFs are reportedly responding to SEC comments and aim to hand them back this week
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2• The market brushed off (maybe too quickly) confirmation that the Mt.Gox wallet move was in preparation for distribution.
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7/ If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
- If BTC is in between 50k and 90k at expiry, 100% of the principal is returned
28-JUN expiry
- 340% p.a. profit if BTC is above 110k at expiry
- If BTC is below 50k at expiry, USD is used to buy BTC at 60k
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4/ BTC Accumulator (27-Dec)
Buy BTC weekly at 51,500 (20% discount to spot price)
[spot ref: 63.7k. upper barrier: 73.5k]
ETH Accumulator (27-Dec)
Buy ETH weekly at 2450 (22% discount to spot price)
[spot ref: 3140, upper barrier: 3625]
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3• The only thing to upset this state of zen is the persistently high spot-forward basis and perp funding suggesting there is still strong positioning and hence possible risk to the downside.
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QCP Asia Colour - 9 July 24
1/ BTC prices dropped to $55.2K during early US trading on Monday after the German Police moved $900 million worth of BTC to exchanges. The market was initially spooked but quickly rebounded.
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4/ We maintain a positive ETH outlook. BTC's achievement of an all-time high two months post-ETF launch provides a compelling precedent. Anticipating sustained institutional interest, ETH's price trajectory may gradually converge with its previous ATH.
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3/ Longer-term, discussions among U.S. Presidential candidates and Senators regarding a sovereign Bitcoin reserve, and the potential for other nations to follow suit, could fundamentally alter the cryptocurrency landscape.
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QCP Announcement - 7 May 24
We have received In-Principle Approval in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM)!
We announced that we have received In Principle Approval from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority in Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) to conduct regulated activities
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QCP Asia Colour – July 30, 2024
1/ On the back of euphoria from Trump’s speech over the weekend, BTC tested $70K before US equities opened, only to fall over 3,000 points to below $67K hours later.
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What Next..!
JUST IN: BlackRock & Fidelity now hold 331,560 $BTC worth over $23.4 billion for their spot
#Bitcoin
ETFs.
2K
1K
9K
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QCP Weekend Brief – 12 Jul 24
Some stability returned to the market this week with BTC & ETH making a decisive recovery to 58k and 3.1k
What caused this relief rally?
1.Positive macro sentiment with inflation slowing down.The market is now pricing 95% chance for a rate cut Sept
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QCP Asia and London – 12 Jun
Both BTC and ETH spot prices still range bound as traders await the release of CPI data and FOMC meeting tonight.
We are heading with into tonight's events with optimism due to:
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3/ Tapping into the immense growth potential in Abu Dhabi, we are partnering with Further Ventures to launch new financial and derivatives product offerings,combining our deep experience in digital asset trading and Further Ventures’ licensed broker-dealer and custodial platforms
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QCP Extraordinary Market Update - 14 Apr 2024
1/ The Iranian attack on Israel has caused panic in the market.
#BTC
traded to lows of 60.8k, ETH to 2850 and Alts were down another 20-30% on average.
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QCP NY Colour - 24 Apr 24
1/ The market is expecting upside to be capped and for spot price to consolidate in the short term.
Notably, there was concentrated selling of
#BTC
end-May 80k calls in yesterday's NY session (over 1000 BTC)which crushed both front end vols and forwards
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4/ Growing narrative around crypto in US elections gains traction, especially following SEC's recent shift in their stance.
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2/The most surprising thing about the markets in the last 24 hours is probably how uninteresting it has been.
The BTC halving will occur this Saturday in Asia morning and the way the market is reacting, it seems to have been almost forgotten.
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ETH Accumulator (Indicative)
Spot Ref: 3,700 ETHUSD
Maturity: 11OCT24 (20 weeks)
Strike: 3,200 (-13.5%)
Upper Barrier: 4,400 (+18.9%)
Observation Frequency: Weekly
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4/ The Trade:
Use this window to accumulate
#ETH
spot before the ETFs go live. Elevated backend make Accumulators an optimal strategy.
(Spot ref 3735 ETHUSD)
ETH Accumulator (20 weeks, 11Oct24)
Buy ETH spot at 15% discount (3200) every week as long as spot price is under 4500.
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4/ What could cause prices to break this downtrend?
1- Liquidation clusters on BTC and ETH are heavily skewed to the topside, opening up potential short squeezes.
2- With S-1 Form approvals round the corner, an approval may result in a hard bounce in ETH.
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- Risk reversals have normalized to more balanced levels, reflecting the reduction of both panic and FOMO in the market.
- Perhaps this a calm we all need before the BTC halving coming up towards mid-April.
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QCP Asia Colour - 29 May 2024
1• Quiet markets with
#BTC
having achieved equilibrium once more trading in a 60-70k range while ETH awaits the next stage of spot ETF approval.
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UFCC (BTC underlying)
Spot Ref: 67,150 BTCUSD
Maturity: 21JUN24 (12 weeks)
Unconditional Coupon Frequency: Every 1 week(s)
Strike: 87,295 (+30%)
Protection Level: 120,539 (+80%)
Coupon Rate: 16% p.a.
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Trade Ideas:
With the market consolidating in the range and eagerly awaiting the ETH Spot ETF launch, accumulators continue to be attractive by allowing you to consistently accumulate ETH at a discount!
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4/ Trade Idea
With the false break of 60k and bullish momentum heading into a typically bullish month you can still buy BTC below 60k even if it rallies to 71k.
BTC Accumulator
Expiry: 20SEP24 (12 weeks)
Strike: 59,000
Barrier: 71,000
Observation Frequency: Weekly
#QCPCapital
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ETH Call ERKO (4/5K 27-SEP)
Max Payout: $1,000 per ETH (12.5x) if ETH spot price is just below 5k at expiry
Cost: $80 per ETH
(Spot Ref: 3,090)
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QCP Asia Colour – 1 July 24
1/
#BTC
kicked off H2 by surging from the 60k region to 63.7k after last week's false break below the 60k support level.
BTC spot ETF inflows also continue to recover with $73m of nett inflows last Fri, which is the highest daily inflow in 2 weeks.
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Trade Idea:
For those who have a long coin position and are looking for some decent yield while waiting for the next leg higher, can perhaps consider a UFCC with a focus on conservative protection levels.
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5/ Trade Idea:
With Spot-Forward Basis yields still in the single digits, you can still generate decent >20% yields from UFCCs (Unconditional Fixed Coupon Convertible). Indicative example below:
#BTC
UFCC (USD deployment)
(spot ref: 63,000)
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3/ 2. Despite over 6000 BTC being sold by the German Police, and the Sword of Damocles being the Mt Gox release hanging over us, BTC has formed a double bottom and failed to break below 54k.
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4/ Despite Bitcoin's volatility during Trump's Bitcoin Conference speech, the market did not experience the dramatic movement anticipated by options traders. Bitcoin remains within the $67,000-$70,000 range, and volatility has sharply declined.
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QCP New York Colour - 18 Apr 24
1/ broke below 60k overnight and ETH traded to 2915 lows on the back of weakness in US equities mainly.
BTC has since bounced back to 64k and ETH close to 3100.
Vols and funding/forwards have been largely unchanged.
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4/ 2. Positive headlines about key TradFi players like Citadel, Goldman, UBS and Citi joining as Authorised participants for Blackrcok's ETF.
3. Consistently large buying of BTC calls (vs large selling of ETH calls)
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- The ETH options market for July expiries in particular, has not shown much excitement thus far. If there is a substantial breakthrough in the approval process, it could catch the market by surprise.
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2/ We maintain our bullishness due to the following tailwinds:
1. Labour numbers have come in softer the past week, and even Powell's testimony to the Senate reaffirmed that market conditions were heading towards their end goal.
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We are also the first digital assets market maker and broker-dealer firm from Singapore to achieve this IPA 🎉
Read more in our press release:
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3/ Given the strong bounce from last week's lows, 60k still seems like a strong support level barring any hawkish surprises (BTC risk reversals are at neutral levels).
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3/ 3. It is now 28 days past the BTC halving and post-halving dip might be done.
4) Huge demand for December call options indicating significant bullishness into year-end.
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QCP Asia and London Colour – 10 Jun 2024
1/ Over the weekend,
#Trump
continued to use crypto to gather more liberal support. At the SF tech-fund raiser, he pitched himself as a ‘crypto president’ in front of Coinbase and Gemini executives and others.
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1/ Last week, on the back of our announcement with
@further
, we also held an intimate networking event in Dubai to celebrate our collaboration. Our friends at
@EVG_Ventures
from Hong Kong also joined us to share their insights.
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QCP NY Colour - 9/10 Apr
1/ BTC has dipped back below 69k and ETH below 3500 again on the back of a relatively large $223.8m outflow for BTC spot ETFs on Monday.
The desk continues to see buyers of long-dated BTC calls, in particular, sizeable daily buying of Mar 2025 200k Calls
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Example:
29Mar2024 60/50k Put Spread
Cost is $1190 per BTC
(spot ref: 67k)
The structure starts to pay out if BTC expires below 60k level and reaches max payout of $10k per BTC if price is 50k or lower at expiry.
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6/ Bullish BTC Trade Idea: The BTC Moonshot
Deployment in USD. Profit if BTC moons, Buy if BTC dips, and get your principal back if it trades sideways.
Live examples (spot ref 68k):
26-APR expiry
- 350% p.a. profit if BTC is above 90k at expiry
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Trade Idea
Spot Ref: 3,100 ETHUSD
ETH Accumulator (32 weeks, 27-Dec 24)
Buy ETH at 21% discount (2,450) every Friday if spot is below 3,500
ETH ETF Surprise Approval Ticket
Payout: 14.28x
Expiry: 31-May 2024
At expiry, If ETH is above 4k, you get 14.28x the prems paid
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QCP London and New York Colour - 25 Jun 24
1/
#BTC
traded to 58.5k which is where we see the 200D EMA and also the bottom of the range. We have since bounced to 61.5k.
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