The Polycrisis
@polycrisis
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A project by @70sbachchan and @kmac with @phenomenalworld Free newsletter sign-up: https://t.co/HUOsyGFnBr We're also here: https://t.co/spP2CfCt0g
NY, Sydney, Paris
Joined June 2022
"While the New Washington Consensus offers allies carte blanche on the interventionist economic tools they seek to apply domestically, it’s up to them to “crowd in” private investment and find fiscal space." Our new dispatch:
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As recent IEA forecasts signal the end of the #oil era, the threat to oil sales has become existential. "Everyone wants to sell the last barrel of oil, but no one wants to pay much for the privilege of doing so," write @kmac & @70sBachchan.
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If you missed the de-risking panel, a recording of the event - including Tim's industry policy astronaut meme introduction - will be on JFI's YT channel tomorrow. Big thanks to the panellists, audience and @jainfamilyinst @phenomenalworld staff!
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"But the world will not fold neatly into self-sufficient trade blocs led from Beijing, Washington, or Moscow." With all eyes on the US and China, less noticed is that other centres of power are weaponizing trade, writes @frankiedotbond
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Thanks to @aygoswami for this excellent schematic diagram, which we used in our latest newsletter about the Paris finance summit.
The financial constraints on a developing country are holding so many back from doing more to deal with climate change.
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The video of our panel: "Oil and politics in the mid-transition" is up!
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Our latest newsletter explored the EU's response to the US Inflation Reduction Act. It's not just the financing & political constraints; Europe spends differently. @kmac @70sBachchan w/ @phenomenalworld
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"#Trade flows, supply chains, and entire industries are rapidly being reorganized. Free trade led by “cooperative factions” in key countries has given way to “friend-shoring” led by “restrictionist” factions. ". Read our latest dispatch⤵️.
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"The IMF admits that austerity is—on average—unhelpful. Economic growth is a better engine for shrinking debt burdens. But with the grim growth outlook, the IMF has another prescription: do austerity again, just do it better this time." .
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NEW essay by @federico___s and @patrickmbigger "The limited scale of these potential outcomes in part results from treating debt as an issue parallel rather than fundamental to the global financial architecture.".
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"The U.S. government seems to be operating under the assumption that Modi’s India can sustain the country as it decouples from Chinese manufacturing. There is little reason to believe that is true.".@70sBachchan in @ForeignPolicy .
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Securitizing MDB loans seems like a neat, innovative way to expand global south financing -- but it will recreate the same problems already seen with privatization of public assets, writes @advaitarun_
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The transcript of our "Varieties of De-risking" panel with @DanielaGabor @CtheLala @IrvingSwisher @BrusselerMel @JWMason1 is here! .
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"In many respects, it is the synthesis of economic, foreign policy, and political debates stretching back to the Great Recession." .New essay by @lachlanrcarey on the origins of green industrial strategy:
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Happening soon (10am EDT/4pm CEST): .The IRA, the EU Green Deal Industrial Plan, and the derisking role of the state. Panel with @JWMason1 @DanielaGabor @BrusselerMel @CtheLala @IrvingSwisher @70sBachchan .Zoom registration:
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NEXT WEEK, we're presenting a panel: Oil and Politics in the Mid-Transition:.@AmyJaffeenergy.@WilliamOman.@MBazilian.Alex Turnbull, and.@adam_tooze.Hosted by @phenomenalworld.October 5 at 4pm ET. Register now:
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Newsletter 012 is out soon! We look at how the VdL/Macron + Lula/big entourage visits to Beijing are pivotal moments in the re-organising of geopolitics, energy and stuff. Sign up here:
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Do the IRA and EU's net zero industrial act target the right constraints and the most important barriers? Join us and @phenomenalworld for a panel with @DanielaGabor @CtheLala @IrvingSwisher @BrusselerMel @JWMason1
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@yusuf_i_k @OlufemiOTaiwo @70sBachchan There'll be a video here: and we'll likely publish an edited transcript.
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Trade flows, #SupplyChains, and entire industries are rapidly being reorganized as the #geopolitics of GHGs is affecting domestic politics and international relations around the world. Have you read our latest newsletter yet? .
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Hola! We are shifting our publishing schedule, so no newsletter this week, but edition 020 is out next week, looking at the straining finance, security and development architectures. Plus excellent new guest essays. In the meantime, here's 014: .
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“Jake Sullivan’s ‘high fence, small yard’ evokes surgical precision, but Asian economies are so interconnected that bans and ensuing retaliations will be far messier than the view from Washington suggests.” .Our new dispatch with @phenomenalworld:
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@MagnusJ_Nielsen @phenomenalworld @IrvingSwisher @BrusselerMel @DanielaGabor @CtheLala @JWMason1 Yes, that's the plan!.
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The essential questions with #cars are, who makes them, and what and who feeds them? Our latest dispatch charts the seismic shifts in autos. #ThePolycrisis.
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Read Tim's thread:
Sullivan & Yellen reform agenda of “modern supply-side economics: .Full employment, local content rules, subsidies for manufacturers, place-based incentives, pro-union, public R&D, tax the rich. Can G7 & developing countries become like US & China?
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While the great powers realign around geopolitics and low carbon industrial policy, developing countries are seizing the new policy space that has opened up to pass non-WTO compliant policies like local content requirements and export bans.
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Strategic non-alignment catches on: "Latin America, Africa, the Indo-Pacific: the three big regions of the world. We can’t take for granted that they are on our side," says EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell @70sBachchan
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From the archives, @lachlanrcarey on the structural trends and political pragmatism that led to the Inflation Reduction Act's passage, and what it means:
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The new Cold War is going to hurt trade, #migration, capital flows, and #technology diffusion. As the proverb goes, when elephants fight, it is the grass that gets trampled. Check out the latest edition of The Polycrisis. ⤵️ .
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“Jake Sullivan’s ‘high fence, small yard’ evokes surgical precision, but Asian economies are so interconnected that bans and ensuing retaliations will be far messier than the view from Washington suggests.”.Our latest dispatch:
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The #energy transition and electrification are creating entirely new paths in geopolitics. Read on⬇️ .
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Coming up: Tim on corn, cars and terraforming the planet.
Don't worry about lithium. Worry about the corn in your cars. Sign up here for our latest @polycrisis dispatch. Out tomorrow.
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Germany's #AutoIndustry has an outsize role in pivotal juncture in China-EU relations, perhaps even more so than the petrostates. We talk about this and more in our latest piece.👇 .
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"Today, Weber’s energy price controls are used in big economies such as the UK and Germany, and her work on how corporate profits are helping to drive inflation is exercising the minds of the world’s most powerful central bankers"
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"And, by its currency, it marks the moment at which bullish self-confidence about our ability to decipher either the future or recent history has begun to seem at the same time facile and passé." from .@adam_tooze .
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"Development banks will be incentivized to build infrastructure that can turn a profit. This course of action would not only be massively inequitable, it would fail to meet the world’s green investment needs."
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Then less attractive stuff remains on balance sheet; eroding creditworthiness and undermining the whole point of the project, ie to allow for more & more needed lending.
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"Polycrisis has its critics, and at Davos 2023 it risked becoming something of a cliché. But as a catchword it serves three purposes. It registers the unfamiliar diversity of the shocks that are assailing what had previously seemed a settled trajectory of global development. .
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"Decarbonization requires nothing less than remaking the chemical basis of #FossilFuel civilization.". More on this in our latest newsletter.
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"If development banks must depend on the sale of their securitized assets for new financing but investors will buy only those that offer the least risk, then banks face a perverse incentive to offload their best assets."
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However, "Many of the investments most needed to combat climate change―dense housing, mass transit, mangrove restoration―are public goods that don’t easily generate the kind of income that attracts private investors." And more so in EMDEs.
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"It insists that this coincidence of shocks is not accidental but cumulative and endogenous. .
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