Pedro Domingos
@pmddomingos
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Professor of computer science at UW and author of '2040' and 'The Master Algorithm'. Into machine learning, AI, and anything that makes me curious.
Seattle, WA
Joined July 2015
AI won't take over the world. It's much worse than that:.
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Turns out all the misinformation experts were mainly misinforming themselves.
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There are risks in voting for Trump. With Kamala there’s the certainty that America will continue to go in the wrong direction. I’ll take the risks.
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100 years from now, when all the vicissitudes of politics, social media, etc. in 2024 are long forgotten, people will still remember this as a milestone in humanity’s conquest of space.
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America innovates, China replicates, Europe regulates.
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Yuval Noah Harari is bringing the moment when AI surpasses human intelligence closer and closer by writing stupider and stupider books.
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Your brain consumes 20 W of power. A single GPU consumes a kilowatt. A data center has tens of thousands of them, and is still not as powerful as your brain. Chew on that before you say AGI is imminent.
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In the last 30 years, America has produced seven trillion-dollar companies, while Europe has not produced a single one worth more than $100B.
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Funny how wokes hate Elon Musk not because he censors left-wing tweets but because he doesn’t censor right-wing ones.
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The demand for non-woke education is skyrocketing. Who will meet it?.
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We live in a time when the president of Harvard is a serial plagiarist and 700 of its faculty think that’s OK.
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Physicists think AI is physics. Statisticians think AI is statistics. Mathematicians think AI is mathematics. Psychologists think AI is psychology. Neuroscientists think AI is neuroscience. And they’re all right.
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Sam Altman is right, though, that figuring something out for the first time is exponentially harder than reproducing it.
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America can’t compete with China without immigrant STEM talent. It’s that simple.
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For girls there’s the entire education system. For boys there’s Jordan Peterson.
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Doctors deciding whether AI should be used in medicine is like longshoremen deciding whether ports should be automated.
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OpenAI has just revealed how very far they are from AGI.
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Prompt engineer could be the shortest-lived occupation in history.
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Average temperatures by month instead of year, and suddenly the climate crisis looks like a joke.
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The Indian government takes the lead in the race to the stupidity singularity.
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A psychologist turned computer scientist just won the Nobel prize in physics for sociological reasons.
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Three interesting facts:.- The brain evolved for vision, but turned out to be good for language. - Vision is reverse graphics. - GPUs were designed for graphics, but turned out to be good for language.
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One of the saddest things I've learned recently: students deciding against getting a PhD because they can't take the political correctness of academia any more.
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Calling this magazine “Scientific American” is misinformation.
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People who think Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter made it worse are clueless.
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Crypto-currencies are everything you don’t understand about money combined with everything you don’t understand about computers. (John Oliver).
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Machine learning consumes 75% of Google's computing power.
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America and China produce goods. Europe produces regulations.
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ASML: big moat.TSMC: medium moat.Nvidia: small moat.OpenAI: no moat.
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Career paths in AI:.Good at math: learning theory.Good at GPU programming: deep learning.Good at data wrangling: data science.None of the above: AI ethics.
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Greatest textbooks of all time (1/2):.Feynman, "The Feynman Lectures on Physics".Pauling, "General Chemistry".Samuelson, "Economics".Russell, "A History of Western Philosophy".Knuth, "The Art of Computer Programming".
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Steve Ballmer’s net worth is about to overtake Bill Gates’s, because he held on to his Microsoft stock and Bill didn’t.
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All computer science departments are becoming machine learning departments. (Naveen Rao).
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A 2021 sequel to "The Matrix" should really be called "The Tensor".
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Language models were invented in 1950 by Claude Shannon.
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Step 1: Sundar Pichai is terrified Gemini will blow up, so he gives the responsible AI group extensive power to shape it. Step 2: The responsible AI group goes to town making Gemini woke. Step 3: Woke Gemini causes the blowup Sundar was terrified of.
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OpenAI’s dirty little secret is that GPTs are reaching their limits and it doesn’t know what to do next.
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The less you know about a profession, the sooner you think it’ll be replaced by AI.
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This is the same guy who’s been saying every year since 2018 that we’ll have full self-driving next year.
Elon Musk says we may have AGI by next year and by 2030, AI will exceed all human intelligence combined
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Computer science is the bastard child of mathematics and electrical engineering.
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A group at IBM developed a link-based search engine before Google. IBM refused to market it, saying it would never make money. A member of that group (Prabhakar Raghavan) is now Google's head of search and ads, responsible for more revenue per year than IBM's entire market cap.
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I've been an AI expert for 30 years. These days I meet a lot of people who've been AI experts for 3 months.
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All eight authors of the transformer paper have now left Google.
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Almost 100% of the physical work that machines do wasn’t done by muscles before. It’ll be the same with mental work and AI.
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The irony of Nvidia is that its whole game plan was to build application-specific chips, but it's now worth $2 trillion because its chips turned out to be general-purpose.
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The psychology of AI alarmists:. Elon Musk: Savior complex. Needs something to save the world from. Geoff Hinton: Ultra-leftist, world-class eccentric. Yoshua Bengio: Hopelessly naive idealist. Stuart Russell: His only impactful application ever was to nuclear test monitoring.
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Can we cancel engineering? It's standing in the way of full diversity.
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Stargate would look a lot better if DeepSeek hadn't just matched o1 at a tiny fraction of the cost.
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Wow. The growth of AI’s computing cost looks exponential even on a log scale.
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Using AI is like reading books: it gives you a massive advantage over those who don't.
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The next breakthrough in AI will come from a grad student with a laptop, not from the $7 trillion Sam Altman is trying to raise.
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I voted for Biden in 2020, but he was a fraud. I'm not making the same mistake with Harris.
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Electricity is an existential threat to humans - real cartoon from 1889.
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What they're thinking right now:.Sundar Pichai: "Damn, I knew releasing a chatbot was a bad idea.".Satya Nadella: "Wow, we didn't just make Google dance, we made them fall on their face.".Sam Altman: "Yay, Gemini almost makes ChatGPT look like it's not woke.".Mark Zuckerberg:.
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Your chances of dying of AI extinction are approximately zero. Your chances of dying of a disease that AI could have cured are quite significant.
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Boycott Harvard. Don't go there, don't send your kids there, don't donate, don't collaborate with the hypocrisy. Period. #FireClaudineGay.
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The Real AI 100. @TIME's list of the supposedly 100 most influential people in AI is such a mess that as a public service I've taken the time to compile a more reasonable one:. Pieter Abbeel @pabbeel.Ajay Agrawal @professor_ajay.Sam Altman @sama.Marc Andreessen @pmarca.Susan.
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We need more engineers and fewer lawyers in government.
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A single American tech company (Apple) is worth more than all European ones put together.
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I’d rather have an egocentric president than an incompetent one.
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Ilya Sutskever's new company is guaranteed to succeed, because superintelligence that is never achieved is guaranteed to be safe.
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Jensen Huang told me in 2016 that when Nvidiers first noticed AI researchers were using GPUs they were flabbergasted. The speed and force with which they then pivoted to AI is a case study for the ages.
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We shouldn’t be arguing about how many high-skilled immigrants to let in. We should be arguing about how to attract them.
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Google would be worth a trillion dollars more now if Sundar Pichai hadn't botched AI.
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In physics you’re constrained by reality. In computer science you’re constrained only by your imagination.
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A better name for deep learning would be brute force learning.
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Why are Americans more ambitious than Europeans? Because over the last 500 years the more ambitious Europeans moved to America.
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TL; DR: The real fascist in this election is Kamala Harris.
My latest at City Journal: The candidates' actual records on authoritarianism contradict the media narrative:
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These five minutes are worth more than many hours of AI alarmist talk.
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Machine learning is best for applications where errors have low cost - the opposite of self-driving cars.
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No, Yann, you and your fellow progressives are the ones who think Trump’s supporters are complete morons. And that’s why you’ll lose.
One revealing mark of authoritarians?.They think their followers are complete morons. Trump, Musk, and Vance have a huge superiority complex. They speak of themselves as "high IQ" and of others as "low IQ".They tell their supporters blatant lies and expect them to believe.
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If America is such an imperialist country, why didn't it start by annexing Canada?.
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So that’s what happens when you keep only the people who do actual coding.
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Proof that consciousness doesn't exist:.- An atom isn't conscious. - Adding an atom to something that's not conscious doesn't make it conscious. - Therefore nothing is conscious.
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What an idiot, bragging about the damage he's done.
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OpenAI didn’t invent LLMs, and wasn’t the first to scale them up. It was the first to release an LLM-based chatbot to the public, but it did it to gather data, and had no idea it would take off. In other words: OpenAI just got lucky.
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It's OK to be an activist. What's not OK is to be an activist under cover of being a scientist.
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Q* can solve simple math problems that symbolic AI could solve 50 years ago. Panic! AGI is here! Humanity is over!.
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Apple's problem is that machine learning is incompatible with perfectionism.
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Yesterday there was a million-year pause in the simulation, but no one noticed.
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2000s: Neural networks = Deep learning. 2010s: Machine learning = Deep learning. 2020s: Artificial intelligence = Deep learning. 2030s: Computer science = Deep learning. 2040s: Science = Deep learning. 2050s: The universe = Deep learning.
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The woke method:.1. Willfully misunderstand and misrepresent what your opponents say. 2. Hammer on it until your misrepresentation prevails. 3. If that doesn't work, kill discussion by insulting everyone until they don't want to be there.
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