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@pferg42

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Co-Founder @Azteco_. Previously @Google. On a mission to onboard billions to Bitcoin.

Joined October 2009
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
2 days
@xcesaralvarez Shoe Dog was terrific.
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@pferg42
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2 days
@DeryaTR_ I have no issue importing breakthroughs. Leverage the global hive mind.
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@pferg42
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2 days
@StewartSwayze @runar_levi How would you hang a for sale sign on it?
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
2 days
@EastlondonDev You’ve crossed the github star singularity
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
3 days
@signulll I never knew you were a TL at the big G
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@pferg42
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3 days
@xcesaralvarez Zero to One
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
4 days
@amitisinvesting Masa rotating into stargate?
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
4 days
@EastlondonDev Very cool. Gonna check this out
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@pferg42
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6 days
@lopp Still insanely, disturbingly low
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
7 days
As much as I like the grand prediction, lets analyze this and break down the key claims and assess them (sonnet 3.5): 1. The Triffin Dilemma Framing: - The text correctly describes the Triffin dilemma - this is a real economic concept where a country (in this case the US) whose currency serves as the global reserve currency must run trade deficits to supply the world with dollars - The description of the dollar being structurally overvalued due to reserve demand is technically accurate 2. Tariffs as Negotiation Tool: - The author frames tariffs as a temporary tool to force a "Plaza Accord 2.0" scenario - This is an interesting comparison to the 1985 Plaza Accord, but it's a somewhat stretched analogy since the current global economic situation is quite different - The suggestion that this is part of a deliberate strategy to weaken the dollar seems speculative 3. Predictions Made: - Lower dollar AND lower yields ("holy grail of fiat alchemy") - Bitcoin price appreciation ("higher, violently faster") Mini-financial crises in trade partner countries - 10-year Treasury yields going down "whatever it takes" Looking back from 2025, some of these predictions haven't played out as described: * While we did see periods of dollar weakness, we haven't seen the dramatic sustained dollar decline predicted * The relationship between tariffs and Bitcoin's price action proved more complex than suggested * The mechanical link between trade tensions and Bitcoin adoption by foreign countries hasn't materialized as directly as predicted The analysis makes some interesting points about structural issues in the global monetary system, but it: 1. Oversimplifies complex economic relationships 2. Draws overly deterministic conclusions 3. Underestimates the role of other factors in currency and crypto markets 4. Makes some logical leaps in connecting trade policy directly to Bitcoin adoption While the piece shows good understanding of certain economic concepts (like the Triffin dilemma), its predictive power has proven limited, particularly in its more specific claims about how events would unfold. The core thesis about tariffs leading inevitably to Bitcoin appreciation appears to have been too reductionist in its analysis of global economic dynamics.
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
9 days
@PrestonPysh Unlikely
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
10 days
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
11 days
It looks like the race is on. Based on this I'd wager that Aleš Michl understands #bitcoin Game Theory is a real thing.
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
13 days
RT @wordgrammer: “Is the US losing the war in AI??” I don’t think so. DeepSeek had a few big breakthroughs, we have had hundreds of small b…
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
14 days
Deepseek R1 deflates Nasdaq 100 and bitcoin in a single blow
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
14 days
@AIML4Health @morganb Does this change anything about the advantages of having massive scale? The big players can now apply these innovations and gain an extra two orders of magnitude improvement?
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
14 days
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
16 days
@bryan_johnson Yes drill sergeant 🫡
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
17 days
And to think @PhoenixWallet voluntarily pulled themselves. Maybe they’ll come back now? Was the best wallet imo.
Tweet media one
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@pferg42
pferg ⚡
17 days
@JoeConsorti SEC did it on their own from what it looks like. No executive order needed.
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