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pferg ⚡
@pferg42
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Co-Founder @Azteco_. Previously @Google. On a mission to onboard billions to Bitcoin.
Joined October 2009
As much as I like the grand prediction, lets analyze this and break down the key claims and assess them (sonnet 3.5): 1. The Triffin Dilemma Framing: - The text correctly describes the Triffin dilemma - this is a real economic concept where a country (in this case the US) whose currency serves as the global reserve currency must run trade deficits to supply the world with dollars - The description of the dollar being structurally overvalued due to reserve demand is technically accurate 2. Tariffs as Negotiation Tool: - The author frames tariffs as a temporary tool to force a "Plaza Accord 2.0" scenario - This is an interesting comparison to the 1985 Plaza Accord, but it's a somewhat stretched analogy since the current global economic situation is quite different - The suggestion that this is part of a deliberate strategy to weaken the dollar seems speculative 3. Predictions Made: - Lower dollar AND lower yields ("holy grail of fiat alchemy") - Bitcoin price appreciation ("higher, violently faster") Mini-financial crises in trade partner countries - 10-year Treasury yields going down "whatever it takes" Looking back from 2025, some of these predictions haven't played out as described: * While we did see periods of dollar weakness, we haven't seen the dramatic sustained dollar decline predicted * The relationship between tariffs and Bitcoin's price action proved more complex than suggested * The mechanical link between trade tensions and Bitcoin adoption by foreign countries hasn't materialized as directly as predicted The analysis makes some interesting points about structural issues in the global monetary system, but it: 1. Oversimplifies complex economic relationships 2. Draws overly deterministic conclusions 3. Underestimates the role of other factors in currency and crypto markets 4. Makes some logical leaps in connecting trade policy directly to Bitcoin adoption While the piece shows good understanding of certain economic concepts (like the Triffin dilemma), its predictive power has proven limited, particularly in its more specific claims about how events would unfold. The core thesis about tariffs leading inevitably to Bitcoin appreciation appears to have been too reductionist in its analysis of global economic dynamics.
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RT @wordgrammer: “Is the US losing the war in AI??” I don’t think so. DeepSeek had a few big breakthroughs, we have had hundreds of small b…
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@AIML4Health @morganb Does this change anything about the advantages of having massive scale? The big players can now apply these innovations and gain an extra two orders of magnitude improvement?
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And to think @PhoenixWallet voluntarily pulled themselves. Maybe they’ll come back now? Was the best wallet imo.
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