Paul Douglas
@pdouglasweather
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Meteorologist, serial entrepreneur, dreamer. Founder: “Praedictix” weather-tech in MSP. Author: “A Kid’s Guide to Saving the Planet”. Optimistic most days
Minnesota
Joined March 2009
The new powder in your yard isn't melting anytime soon; colder than average looking out 7-9 days, but I suspect GFS has the right idea with 20s and a few 30s returning by the last week of February. A Minnesota "warm front"
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this is why I’m still on X
this guy thought he bought a TV but instead it was a Popeyes menu screen😭
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2-3" should be the norm. Maybe 4" far north metro
@pdouglasweather How much snow for Minneapolis? 2 inches?
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I think the latest (18z) ECMWF/European model has the right idea with 2-3" in the immediate metro by Saturday afternoon, with a band of 4-5" setting up over central Minnesota to Spooner, WI Good snowmobiling-weather Brainerd and Alexandria Lakes. No melting anytime soon
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Awesome news Randy. We have kept Bella in our prayers and I'm relieved she is doing so much better. Please keep us posted on her progress
From my son, Ryan!! God is good. 🙏 A tremendous weight has been lifted. Bella’s MRI showed no signs of a stroke, an overwhelming relief. She’s already spoken a few words and is nodding yes and no. There’s still a long road ahead. We are grateful. Thank you for the prayers!
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Our greatest fear (right below napping during an EF-3 tornado on the ground) is predicting flurries, only to wake up to a FOOT of flurries. So yes, as a profession meteorologists tend to overpredict snow. Forecasts are slowly getting better but they will never be perfect.
@pdouglasweather Also easier to revise down than explain why you undersold a blizzard though I imagine.
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Confidence/accuracy is best a day or two before a storm (fresher, more accurate data powering the models). I try to avoid posting snowfall amounts too early, but on social media there is a perverse incentive to post dramatic snowfall maps for clicks and likes. You are correct
@pdouglasweather Why do they hype the snow models early and predict much snow. Only for that to be revised down. Each time! I don't recall a time when we got more than expected. Rarely do they revise "up". Do they do that to get clicks and viewership?
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the less it snows the more we obsess over it
@pdouglasweather It seems like we hyperventilate over relatively small amounts of snow a whole lot more than we used to.
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Probably starting up late afternoon/evening - heaviest snow overnight and early Saturday, then tapering Saturday afternoon. Deicing doesn't work as well at 20F as it does closer to 30F so roads will be slippery. 1-3" metro, more north. Just barely plowable for MSP
@pdouglasweather Hello Paul, any time frame as of yet?
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At 20F snow ratios will be 15:1, possibly 20:1, but ECMWF continues to trend lower for Saturday's snow, maybe 1-3" powder for the metro with a band of 4-5" setting up over central Minnesota. Roads will be slick, but probably no need to call out the Minnesota National Guard
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Hate to burst your snowy bubble, but ECMWF (European model) has been slowly killing off Saturday's alleged "storm". Too fast, track too far south, not enough Gulf moisture or upper level support. NOAA's models are coming around now too Closer to 1-3"? We shall see 😵💫
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I don't see this happening here anytime soon 😳
In Russia, residents of Sokol are literally crawling through snowdrifts after record snowfall in the Dolinsky district. The village is facing snowdrifts several times higher than a person’s height, and locals are clearing the aftermath of the cyclone on their own.
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Yesterday's temperatures were normal for the first week of April with record highs from Park Rapids to Rochester. Today will only be 15F warmer than average, with teens and 20s returning next week. Maybe a coating to 1" slush tomorrow, another 1-2" on Monday? #snowrecession
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We hit a record 52F today in the cities. This is unusual: the team @Praedictix can't find two consecutive Januarys with 50s at MSP since 1872. We are currently in a La Nina cool phase of the Pacific, which makes this even stranger.
@pdouglasweather @pdouglasweather have we ever had 2 January’s in a row that hit 50 F in the twin cities?
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10th earliest 50 on record in the metro. Factoring wind chill it feels about 85 degrees warmer than it did last Monday. Brief "shorts watch" in effect. #weatherwhiplash
Hey, if you haven't been outside today, this is your sign to go outside. It has officially reached 50 degrees at MSP! 😎
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More weather-whiplash. From Polar Vortex early last week to 50F in the metro today, 25-30 degrees above average. Old record is 48 in 1989. It will feel like late March Drought continues to expand - a little slush late Saturday, again Monday. Waiting patiently for a snowstorm
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Reports of minor lake ice damage to lifts and docks from Tuesday's 44 mph wind gusts. Record 47 at MSP and 50F at Rochester, where a few golf courses are open this week The Twin Cities may hit 50F tomorrow before cooling off next week. Snow? Sorry - it doesn't snow here anymore
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9.8” for the winter at MSP. Normal snowfall to date is closer to 28”
@pdouglasweather I’m guessing twin cities isn’t much more than 10
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