Dan Sanchez
@oriolesreview
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Following the progress of the #Orioles organization from the bottom up.
Queens, NY
Joined December 2022
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Nathan Eovaldi (35): As Eovaldi's FB has declined in velo & effectiveness, his increased splitter usage and plus command have given him new life in his 30s. He could be a stabilizer for a young playoff rotation, but his age, FB trend & lack of durability scream 2-yr deal max.
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I hate the New York Yankees with every fiber of my being. I was born hating the Yankees and I now live in New York hating the Yankees. I will die and be buried hating the Yankees.
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This man wanted to hit a grand slam so bad he found a way to pull a 99-mph fastball 8 inches up and on the outer half 403 feet out to right center.
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Adley Rutschman is 1-for-17 with 4 Ks in his playoff career.
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Second half 2024 ERAs:
Kyle Bradish: 2.34
Grayson Rodriguez: 2.58
Corbin Burnes: 2.71
DAMN
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It looks like DL Hall is going to make the Brewers rotation and Joey Ortiz will make the roster as a utility infielder who will see a good amount of time at 3B and back up SS/2B.
Happy for those guys. Hope they kill it.
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2 of Gregory Soto’s first 3 appearances for the Orioles were absolutely awful.
Since then he’s posted a 1.29 ERA / 2.74 FIP in his last 17 appearances coming into tonight.
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The Orioles are 93-56. If they can go 7-6 the rest of the way, they'll finish with 100 wins.
The Rays are 92-59. In this scenario, they'd need to go 9-2 the rest of the way to beat the tie and win the division.
Hard to overstate how monumental today's win was.
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I’m Team Keep Holliday Up. To me he looks like an extremely talented player who is extremely 20 years old. It’s going to take patience but talent will win out. He needs to struggle for the first time in his life and be ready to contribute down the stretch and in the playoffs.
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Joey Ortiz started at SS for the Brewers today and hit a 2-run HR off of José Leclerc.
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I don’t know if what’s going on with Adley is purely physical or what but he doesn’t at all resemble the youthful, energetic, tooled-up, uber talented kid he was just one year ago.
His performance has been poor for a while and his presence as a budding leader has evaporated.
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The absolute best feeling is tuning into YES and the Yankee booth being completely silent for 10 straight seconds. Always a good sign.
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So Dean Kremer just comes off the IL with a demonic splitter he’s throwing 33% of the time?
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Good job, Mounty. I remember being one of these kids a while back. It means a lot.
Ryan Mountcastle taking the time to get out of his car and sign some autographs for the kids.
Good guy.
#Birdland
@FOXBaltimore
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This is one of the worst paragraphs I’ve ever read. Kendall Roy-level babble.
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They just look like they have no coherent approach at all. Guess on a pitch and swing hard.
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No doubt this statement is true. Whether it’s the ringing endorsement it’s meant to be is probably subjective.
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Some good, bad and unknown about the returning roster. GOOD:
- Adley should be better
- Felix should be healthy
- Grayson should be healthy
- Cowser and Westy build on strong first full seasons
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Are you sick enough to stay up late and watch Cole Irvin pitch against the Dodgers?
Yeah, you are.
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Kremer goes 4, Gibby goes 2, Hall, Cano, Wells shut it down.
Bradish starts Game 4 on short rest and brings it back home.
Grayson redemption game Friday.
On to the Twins.
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Really pathetic stuff from Soto. Just pissing all over a gutsy team-first performance from Suárez.
There's also no reason to take out Burch Smith after a 2-out single when you need to save your bullpen at the start of a road trip. Not a Hyde-hater but that's over-managing.
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Fuji was such a smart pickup. Would love it if he and Baltimore could work out a reasonable extension. I think he could thrive in this organization.
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Per the AP, the White Sox are covering $4M of Eloy Jimenez’s remaining $4.26M salary and will send a conditional payment of $1.5M, covering half of his $3M buyout, if his option is declined.
So the most the Orioles could be on the hook for is $1.76M, relatively negligible.
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Tendering Jorge Mateo is a no-brainer for me. He’s been worth 2.03 fWAR per 600 PA in his career, more than Mountcastle and Santander, and 2.38 per 600 over the last 3 years.
$5M for a 1-WAR utility player who brings speed + defense off the bench and holds his own vs LHP. Easy.
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Jackson Holliday is going to be a star, but he’s not ready to play a major part on a playoff team right now. Getting Jordan Westburg back will be huge, and having Urias healthy will help as well.
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2023 Jordan Hicks (career year):
3.29 ERA / 3.30 xERA / 1.1 fWAR
2023 Craig Kimbrel:
3.26 ERA / 3.28 xERA / 1.1 fWAR
Some of y’all are losing your damn minds.
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Honestly shocked that Hyde pulled Kimbrel and went to Cano there but it was a great move and I’m glad it paid off so that he can feel empowered to move a little faster with the bullpen when things are going sideways and not defer too much to strict roles.
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1. Jackson Holliday
13. Samuel Basallo ☄️
15. Coby Mayo 🔥
41. Heston Kjerstad
51. Colton Cowser
82. Enrique Bradfield 👀
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Seranthony Dominguez had a 4.75 ERA when Elias acquired him, but an xFIP and career ERA more than a run lower than that. He’s posted a 1.13 ERA as an Oriole with strong peripherals. Classic buy-low guy.
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It’d be kind of crazy, but I could see the Orioles adding Enrique Bradfield to the playoff roster to serve almost exclusively as a pinch runner/defensive replacement if Mateo’s not back. He might be the fastest guy in the org and there are inevitably moments where that’s huge.
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Having a hard time wrapping my head around the absolute privilege of watching Holliday, Henderson and Rutschman on the field and Burnes, Bradish and Rodriguez on the mound all year. It’s going to be FUN.
The only thing missing is Felix 😥
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The Orioles are basically doing everything they couldn’t do the last week or two before the break. They look totally recharged.
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Danny Coulombe joined the Orioles at age 33 after 8 mediocre years in the big leagues and has completely revitalized his career since then.
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It’s really not that big a deal. Elias took a flier on a big arm with poor control, which has worked out for him before. They found the absolute perfect spot for him and he crapped the bed. So what? They’ll still win, they’ll probably DFA Thyago and he’ll probably clear.
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Cowser is the clear Rookie of the Year in my opinion. Should end up around 4 fWAR, 20-25 HR and excellent defense.
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This was so nasty. I’m retrospect it was savvy to get an arm like this in a contender:contender challenge trade when true sellers were asking for the moon.
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It would be so satisfying to see Cedric Mullins put this team on his back and carry them to the finish line.
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The minimum I want to see by Wednesday:
- Another playoff-caliber starter acquired, with Suarez moved to the pen
- a legit late-inning relief arm
- one or both of Mayo and Holliday up, by whatever means necessary
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Not sure how the OD roster will shake out, but this is the primary alignment I’d like to see in the first half:
C - Rutschman
1B - Mountcastle
2B - Holliday
SS - Henderson
3B - Westburg
LF - Hays
CF - Mullins
RF - Cowser
DH - Santander
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Best case scenario, Kjerstad and Santander keep mashing this year, Kjerstad establishes himself as the RF of the future, Santander performs well enough in his walk year to receive and reject the QO. Orioles outfield is set for 2025 and they get a draft pick.
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I'm as frustrated as anyone with the play we saw from the team over the second half and over the last two days, but folks are really taking it over the top. Projecting criticism of performance onto personalities, spewing really toxic stuff. These are people and they are Orioles.
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Franchise-changing is insane. Stowers is sub-replacement level with a 35% k-rate. Norby is also striking out 30+% with a 7:1 K:BB and on pace to be a -15 defender.
This trade likely gets filed under inconsequential, though it’s too early to tell.
Another Tweet that I was right.
THE CONNOR NORBY AND STOWERS TRADE WAS AWFUL
ELIAS' WORST MOVE EVER
FRANCHISE CHANGING MISTAKE
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If you thought Heston Kjerstad has light-tower power, wait until you see Coby Mayo.
Avg EV / 90th EV / Max EV / LA
Kjerstad: 90.8 / 104.7 / 109.9 / 16.7
C. Mayo: 91.3 / 106.9 / 114.9 / 19.1
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This is a 23-year-old with a .720 OPS and 37% K-rate in AA lmao
. Under only 1 circumstance should the Yankees even consider trading Spencer Jones — if they can somehow pry this one particular All-Star away
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It’s going to get harder and harder to not break camp with Coby Mayo if he keeps this up. Decent chance he’s a top 5 hitter on the team right now.
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Joey Ortiz started at shortstop for the Brewers today, going 2-1 with a double and a walk.
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It would be pretty damn funny if Cowser is the one who ends up getting Elias his PIP pick.
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I'll never in my life know how it feels to be one of the best to ever do it and all of a sudden lose it. I don't doubt for a second that he was giving everything he had.
No bad blood at all.
I know that Orioles fans aren’t fond of Craig Kimbrel and this is 100% the right move…
But I feel for Craig as a human. Walking off the mound for potentially the last time after your worst career outing ever has to suck.
Can’t imagine how he feels.
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Jackson Holliday now has an OBP just shy of .500 and an OPS north of 1.000 in 212 PAs across three levels in his MiL career. 50 BB to 35 SO.
He’s 19. And a shortstop.
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We are concerned about the health of pitchers, and we will address this by forcing them to pitch more.
REPORT: MLB is Discussing a Radical Six-Inning Minimum for Starting Pitchers
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Mayo’s bat is really going to elevate the Orioles’ offense as soon as they find a spot for him. He should really be up by August 1. I really don’t care where they play him, he’s ready to damage.
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Don’t do this to us, Corbin. This fanbase absolutely cannot handle an off-season of Morosi saying “the Orioles have serious interest in re-signing Corbin Burnes.”
"Baltimore has been great to me and my family. It's felt like home." - Corbin Burnes
#Birdland
#baltimorebattery
#Orioles
#LetsGoOs
#DongCity
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Yeah, when you think you can win a World Series you trade DL Hall and Joey Ortiz for this.
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Look, the Orioles have a type. They know what they can develop. And it’s hard to argue with their track record.
Yeah, they need pitching, but at the top of the draft they’re trying to maximize the chances of a quality major leaguer. Honeycutt had Orioles written all over him.
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My god Jackson Holliday. He’s going to be the real deal, isn’t he?
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There is no more important decision the new ownership could make than green-lighting a Gunnar Henderson extension. I’m one of the last people who would advocate a blank check, but Gunnar is the one.
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So Norby gets a real number and a mini promo vid. Interesting.
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Single, double, home run and a walk for Kjerstad today.
.357 batting average / 1.181 OPS
Video game numbers.
I think you have to bring him up and start him 4-5 times a week. It’ll mean reducing the playing time of several of the vets who aren’t producing. But it’s time.
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This is largely a sad statement about the Orioles’ current roster but it’s hard to argue that Suárez isn’t the No. 3 starter at the moment.
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I'm totally fine moving on from Urias to make room for Holliday/Mayo, but the hate he gets on here is over the top.
Despite a horrid April, he's got a 101 wRC+, 115 wRC+ vs. RHP & 129 overall wRC+ since May 1. He's back to being a slightly above average bat with reverse splits.
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If the Orioles play .500 baseball the rest of the way they’ll win 92 games, which should be enough to make the playoffs. They’re on pace for 108.
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Re: Mayo and fitting him into the lineup. Imagine this with Henderson at short, Mateo at 2B, Westburg at 3B and Mayo at DH. You don’t lose anything defensively and get Mayo’s bat over Urias against a LHP. There are creative ways to fit him in.
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OK, seeing this lineup against the Phillies I recognize the need for a right-handed hitting outfielder.
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Yeah pass on 2-3 months of Tanner Scott at that price. Sheesh.
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I’ve tried to be level-headed about Jackson Holliday, but he just drew a 4-pitch walk with Mullins ahead of him on first and Beavers behind him with a 1.000 OPS. He’s been on base 3 times tonight with 2 walks.
So … maybe he should go to Norfolk?
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For three or four months I was sure this was going to be one of the best years in franchise history, and now it seems inevitable that the Orioles are going to shart their way to an 88-win season, lose a wild card series on the road and then clock out.
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Bowden (I know) lists the Orioles as one of the winners of Day 1.
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What a gem for Cade Povich in his Camden Yards debut. That’s a major league pitcher, right there.
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The year is 2028.
The Orioles outfield is Colton Cowser, Vance Honeycutt and Jud Fabian.
Their collective batting line is .220/.320/.440 and their combined WAR is 12.
Orioles Twitter is burning to the ground, and I sit atop my throne, smiling (alone in my mom's basement).
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Based on what I’m seeing on Twitter and message boards, Orioles fans seem to be a tad too high on Kjerstad and way too down on Cowser.
Worth remembering that Cowser outhit Kjerstad at AAA (including for more power), is a year younger and brings more defensive value.
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Jorge Mateo is the perfect utility guy for the Orioles and should stick around after Holliday arrives. Great complement to the lefty infielders when his swing is right.
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So far AA hasn’t chewed up and spit out EBJ.
After a 4-for-5 day at the plate (including a double in the 9th that led to him scoring the game-tying run), he’s hitting .318 with an .878 OPS through his first 11 games with Bowie.
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Throw 7/120 at Gunnar this off-season. Neither he nor Boras would turn down 120 million guaranteed before hitting free agency at age 29.
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Another strong but somewhat strange outing at Norfolk for Trevor Rogers
5 scoreless innings with 6 Ks so far, but his fastball is sitting 89.5 😳
Wonder if he’s deliberately paring back for the sake of command or if there’s a physical issue.
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According to ZiPS, the Orioles increased their odds of winning a World Series by 5.3% at the deadline, more than twice as much as the next team on the list (the Dodgers).
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Now you can really trade Beavers or Fabian (or Horvath or Etzel) without batting an eye.
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I saw someone say Gunnar is their best player but Adley is the most important, and it kind of tracks here.
Hit on the hand June 27, disappeared offensively and struggled defensively since, and the whole team has looked lifeless.
Since July 1st, Adley Rutschman has a wRC+ of 58 and an fWAR of -0.2
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“The timeline for the deal is not yet known, however it would need to be approved by MLB owners, who will convene in Orlando next week at their annual meeting.”
Could be approved soon.
John Angelos agrees to sell Orioles to group led by Baltimore native David Rubenstein
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The same fans who wrote off Colton Cowser last year are writing off Holliday after 10 ABs. Give it a little time, let them take their lumps and adjust. Talent and acumen will win out.
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Glad the boys came away with a win, but man that Brewers team is relentless. Happy that Joey and DL landed somewhere good.
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Some good and bad from Heston Kjerstad’s very brief MLB stint so far, set in the context of his MiL track record:
Good: His plus raw pop does look like it will transfer to plus game power.
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Imagine being the Rangers and going from a lifeless, half-empty Trop to what's waiting for them at Camden Yards this weekend. It's time to beat the decibel reading from 2012.
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I really don’t ever want to see Bryan Baker pitch for the Orioles again.
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Cannot believe people were on here talking about optioning Cowser. Crazy talk.
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I’m not sure what role the playoffs will hold for Cade Povich, but he should get every chance to win a rotation spot next spring.
2.60 ERA / 3.13 FIP / 3.42 xFIP / 3.36 SIERA in 5 September starts. 5.5 IP per start. 4.00 K/BB.
Great finish to his season.
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If by some miracle they decide Bradish’s elbow still does not need surgical repair, I’d be completely fine shutting him down completely until August or even September. The Orioles will likely make the playoffs without him. They need those bullets for the playoffs.
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I'm buying Seranthony Domínguez as a late-inning reliever.
After last night's dominating performance, his xERA and SIERA are down to 3.28 (FIP and xFIP a bit higher in the upper-3s).
2.51 ERA since May 1 with a very strong 19.3 K-BB%
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We could be witnessing something very special in Samuel Basallo.
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Before that home run, James McCann had a .761 OPS in the second half and 1.064 in September.
With a lefty on the mound for Detroit and Burnes on the bump for BAL, does he get the start at catcher for WC Game 1?
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Holliday looks night and day from his debut. He’s not going anywhere. Mayo taking good ABs as well.
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Well Birdland, it was an awesome opening weekend. I’m glad I gave this website another try and got to have so many great conversations this winter.
My wife and I are expecting our second kid, a baby girl, tomorrow, so I’ll probably be dark for a bit. Here’s to a great season!
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As an O’s fan in Queens, I am loving this Orioles/Mets alliance.
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Captain obvious here, but so much is riding on Grayson Rodriguez’s recovery. Burnes, Eflin and pray for rain is not going to get them anywhere in the playoffs.
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Eno Sarris recently ranked Corbin Burnes the
#2
starting pitcher in the game with a projected 2.62 ERA over 197 innings.
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Jordan Westburg’s about to post the sneakiest 6-WAR season in history.
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Who the hell was booing?? That’s lame!
Craig Kimbrel retires the side in order. He gets a loud applause and a standing ovation from the same fans who booed him literally minutes prior.
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