Hann Liew, CFP, CFA
@ooihann
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Fintech Entrepreneur (Founder & CEO @HalogenCapital & ex- @RinggitPlus ) & Fund Manager in KL 🇲🇾. Also a stats nerd trying to make finance easy for Malaysians.
Kuala Lumpur
Joined July 2009
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Last Seen Profiles
It's almost the end of December 2022.
Every Malaysian 🇲🇾 earning >RM4,000 / month can potentially make RM100s if not RM1,000s in the next few days, before 31 December 2022.
Maximise your tax reliefs in YA 2022 (spend by 31 Dec 2022, submit Mar-Apr 2023).
A thread 🧵 how:
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It's 2022 in Malaysia, and we have a massive retirement time bomb 💣coming.
The big number today was ~ RM145bn withdrawn from KWSP in the past 2 years, but we need to dig deeper to find out how bad this actually is.
A thread on the 🇲🇾 retirement crisis by a finance nerd 🧵
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Malaysia's 🇲🇾Budget 2023 was tabled in Parliament by our Finance Minister
@tzafrul_aziz
on 7 Oct.
Was it actually 'good'? How can the average rakyat figure out what it means for them?
I read through 100s of pages, will summarise it here so you don't have to 🧵 :
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Malaysia's 🇲🇾 July Inflation: 4.4%🔥. Prices getting higher & squeezing our budgets...
So why did BNM just increase OPR +25bps to 2.50%, increasing our loan installments? Surely this makes things worse?
Sudah jatuh, ditimpa tangga?
To understand, let's look deeper... 🧵
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EPF 🇲🇾released their 1H 2023 report today!
Headline numbers:
- a 40% increase in investment income from RM23.75bn to RM33.19bn. 🚀 🚀
- RM1.082 Trn record high assets
- 38.7% overseas investments, 61.3% domestic
What does this mean for our KWSP 2023 Dividend? 🧵
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Inflation in Malaysia 🇲🇾 for August 2022 just got released, 🔺4.7% YoY 🔥🔥
This is the highest in 16 months, and starting to creep up to levels not seen since the energy and commodity crisis in 2008 ‼️
A quick little thread from a finance nerd 🧵
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Is inflation in Malaysia only 3.4% YoY?
Actually, Malaysia's 'true' inflation rate as of June 2022 is🔺10.9% YoY 🤯.
Here's a little thread explaining why 🧵
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Who wants to be a millionaire? 💰
Apparently we all need RM1m to retire comfortably in 20 - 30 years time.
Wait, I thought EPF's Basic Savings = RM240,000?
Either way, it's a lot...
But there's actually a secret formula that you can use for a comfortable retirement 🧵
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It's almost the end of December 2023 🎅
Every Malaysian 🇲🇾 earning >RM4,000 / month can potentially make RM100s if not RM1,000s in the next few days, before 31 December 2023.
Maximise your tax reliefs in YA 2023 (spend by 31 Dec 2023, submit Mar-Apr 2024).
A thread 🧵:
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EPF 🇲🇾 released their 3Q 2023 report on Friday!
Headline numbers:
- a 33% increase in 9M investment income YoY from RM33.04bn to RM47.86bn 🚀
- RM1.092 Trn record AUM
- 37.7% overseas investments, 62.3% domestic
What does this mean for our KWSP 2023 Dividend? 🧵
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This is actually quite catastrophic.
To give everyone a sense of the scale:
- 50% of working Malaysians earned less than RM2,062 a month in 2020.
- the income drop from 2019 to 2020 has set incomes back ~10 years if you take into account inflation rates.
Mean monthly salaries & wages fell 9.0% in 2020, the first time decline since the series began in 2010.
#StatsMalaysia
#MyCensus2020
#MenghitungMalaysia
#DataAndaMasaDepanKita
#PastikanAndaDibanci
#ARC2021
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Malaysia's 🇲🇾 inflation rate was announced today -> up 🔺4.4% YoY in July 2022! 🔥🔥🔥
This is from an already high +3.4% YoY in June 2022.
How does our govt actually calculate inflation, and why does it always 'feel' higher than reported?
We need to dig to find out 🧵 :
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Malaysia's inflation in June 2022 was🔺3.4% YoY (highest in >1 year).
But to fully understand what's happening, you need to look further under the hood.
A thread 🧵
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Malaysia's 🇲🇾Unemployment Rate in June 2022 came in at 3.8% today.
This is back to pre-pandemic lows (less jobless people, good news!), but to understand if things are as good as they seem, we need to dig deeper.
An Malaysia unemployment thread 🧵 by a finance nerd:
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Today BNM 🏛️ issued a 5 point plan headline to protect us Malaysians 🇲🇾 better against financial scams.
But is it a case of too little too late?
I've seen a financial scam or two or ten in my 15+ years in financial services, so let's dig deeper into it 🧵 #️⃣
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GE15 2pm Turnout - 58% (12.2m voters)
So GE15 already exceeded GE14's total (12.3m), and looks to be on track for 75-80% by 6pm.
I've crunched the numbers on turnout, prediction:
70% = PH 80-90 seats
75% = PH 90-100 seats
80% = PH 100-110 seats
>80% = PH outright majority
Why?
Assalamualaikum Warahmatullahi Wabarakatuh & Salam Sejahtera,
Statistik keluar mengundi bagi Hari Mengundi PRU Ke-15 pada jam 2:00 petang:
Peratus keseluruhan: 58%
Sumber: SPR
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Today, USD:MYR = 4.73 ❗
We're about 3% away from our all time low of 4.88. 😱
The weak RM been so politicised that we've lost the forest through the trees AKA "dunno good or not?"
Let me use recent Malaysian 🇲🇾 data to help us answer the question better 🧵 :
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Malaysian 🇲🇾 economic numbers and financial stats have been released the past 2 weeks which will be important to consider for
#GE15
.
I think PH 🟥 has a mountain to climb, and needs to refocus their message. BN/PN 🟦 messaging is easier.
Here's a thread 🧵 why I think so:
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Malaysia's 🇲🇾 Budget 2024 was tabled on Friday!
Here's my ultimate Budget 2024 breakdown thread, with all my initial thoughts and deep dives, so you can sound a little smarter when talking with people at work next week 🤓
Let's dive in 🧵 :
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All our incomes increased by 10% today?
Not quite, but Malaysia's 🇲🇾 household income bands changes today, ie adjustments to the bands of T20, M40 & B40 households.
Read on to see where we ended up!
🧵
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BNM’s MPC just announced that Malaysia’s 🇲🇾 OPR is going up ⬆️ by +25bps or 0.25% to 2.75%.
What does that mean for us? A quick little thread 🧵:
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@kwspmalaysia
today announced the biggest change to 🇲🇾 EPF accounts since 2007.
The introduction of Akaun Fleksibel (ie 'Account 3').
From 11 May 2024, monthly EPF contributions will be allocated:
- 75% into Account 1
- 15% into Account 2
- 10% into "Account 3"
🧵
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KWSP 🇲🇾 released their 1Q 2024 report today.
EPF's headline grabbing numbers:
- 33.1% increase in income vs. 1Q 2023
- RM1.19 Trn record AUM
- 62% domestic investments, 38% foreign
- 16.1 mil members (8.6 mil active)
- 608k employers
How's our 2024 EPF Dividend looking? 🧵
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So before 31 Dec, I'll check/do:
✅ RM3,000 PRS
✅ RM8,000 SSPN
✅ RM4,000 EPF (FYI if self employed, can self-contribute)
✅ RM350 SOCSO
✅ RM1,000 Vaccination (Flu, HPV etc)
✅ RM1,000 Medical check / Covid-19 RTK
✅ RM1,000 Domestic travel (Hotel, Attractions)
5/n
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Malaysia's 🇲🇾 Unemployment Rate for July 2023 was released on Friday.
Unemployment Rate: 3.4% ⏸️
Unemployed: 579,200 people 📉
Total Labour Force: 16.91m 📈
3.4% sounds pretty "good", but looking deeper you'll find a niggling trend:🧵
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Inflation in Malaysia 🇲🇾 for March 2023 was released yesterday, 3.4% 🔺 YoY
Lower than 3.7% in Feb and dropping steadily since last year (peaked at 4.7% in August 2022) 📉
Why does it still feel high 🔥 to us? And when will it finally go to 'normal' levels?
Read on 🧵:
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Malaysia 🇲🇾 inflation CPI growth for June 2023 just released = +2.4% YoY
Lowest in a year+, so seems like things are moderating.
Digging deeper shows moderating Food (4.7% vs 5.9% last month) and Restaurants/Hotels (5.4% vs 6.7% last month) too.
Looks like we're staying at
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Malaysia 🇲🇾 inflation for November 2022 just got released by
@StatsMalaysia
at 🔺 4.0% YoY! 🔥
Lower than the August 2022 peak of 4.7%, but seems sticky still.
What's really happening now, and what's my prediction for 2023? Here's a little thread from a numbers nerd 🧵
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Why higher turnout reflect better results for PH?
Remember that BN-PN-GPS-GRS are the incumbent government.
Voter turnout is driven by how much rakyat who normally 'don't care' will care enough to go to a voting centre and vote for 'change'.
So 🔺turnout = 🔺PH
#GE15
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So, assuming things stay as they are and both the Malaysian 🇲🇾and Global 🌏economies stay on current trends as per 1H, we're looking at a 5.6-5.8% 2023 EPF Dividend.
If you enjoyed this little thread, do give me
@ooihann
a follow, I tweet 1-2x weekly on finance-y things!
n/n
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Malaysia's 🇲🇾 2Q 2023 GDP just released, quite a sharp drop to +2.9% YoY from +5.6% YoY in 1Q 2023.
Looks like the post Covid-19 economic recovery is running out of steam?
Let's look closer at the details and try to figure some stuff out together: 🧵
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2023 🇲🇾 EPF Dividend = 5.5% Conv (5.4% for Shariah)
How will EPF Account 3 ("Akaun Fleksibel") affect EPF Dividend distributions?
I think it depends on whether you're looking at the short (2024) or long term (2025 and beyond).
Let's dig deeper in a little thread 🧵 :
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Last days till 31st Dec for tax reliefs, my own checklist:
✅ PRS
✅ SSPN for the kids
✅ Life insurance
✅ Medical insurance
✅ Lifestyle (RM5k this year)
✅ Domestic Tourism (Hotel)
✅ Medical Examination
✅ Childcare exp
✅ Parents Medical exp
Ask if you need help on yours!
You have a few more days to take advantage of these last-minute tax reliefs before 2021 bows out for 2022!
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BUT, my personal rule:
Don't buy things just for tax relief (if rate=25%, you still spending 75%), but SSPN, PRS are not 'spending' so those ones can!
Happy tax saving, and Happy New Year!
If you found this 🧵 useful, give me
@ooihann
a follow! Not sure? Ask a question!
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Yup. 2 key numbers:
1. Investment income: If FY2022 18% 🔻on FY2021 (RM67bn) = RM55bn.
2. Est. 2022 AUM = RM1.05trn
(RM1.01trn + RM80b contr. - RM50b reg withdrawal - RM40b special Apr-22 withdrawal + (1))
RM55b / RM1.05trn = 5.25%
So my guess is 5.0-5.5% for 2022 Div.
Do you think we should brace for lower EPF dividends for 2022?
@KWSPMalaysia
just announced total gross investment income for 9M22 is down 18% to RM39.31 billion (2021 was RM48.02 billion).
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A country's Budget is similar to a personal budget. That is, see what you earn, and then plan what you're gonna spend for the year.
🇲🇾 2023
Revenue: RM272.6 bn
Spend: RM372.3 bn
Spend > Earn ❗
Countries 'can' do that, and the difference is called a Budget Deficit.
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Income tax filing is now open for Malaysian tax residents today (1 March 2021).
My team at
@RinggitPlus
will be updating our guide from last year over the next couple of days to reflect official changes (it's basically confirmed now the systems are open).
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In my humble opinion, solving Malaysia's retirement crisis is possible if:
1. Give direct aid rather than force EPF withdrawals (easy)
2. Change our EPF contribution model (easy)
3. Increasing incomes (hard)
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In summary, the retirement crisis in Malaysia 🇲🇾is large, and it's coming, and we need to solve it quickly with some easy and hard decisions.
I believe we can do it, but we need to push for it!
If you liked this thread 🧵, follow me
@ooihann
for more finance-y stuff!
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Last night, the 🇺🇸US Fed FOMC (their BNM MPC) raised the Fed Funds Rate (their OPR) by +75bps to 2.50%🔺, the highest level in 14 years.
As 🇲🇾Malaysians sitting 15,000km away, it's easy not to care what happens there.
We should care, here's a little thread why 🧵
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What happens if you reach retirement age and have not enough funds? 3 things:
1. Continue working after 60; if not
2. Family/friends to support; if not
3. Society (we) bears it somehow (eg. homelessness, medical costs, suicides etc)
It can be grim.
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“Next election will be Return of the Jedi”
I remember
@fahmi_fadzil
mentioning this on a Clubhouse (lol) room back then. Dark period right before MCO times.
So, episode 6 release today YB? 😂
#GE15
Fahmi Fadzil: 2018 was ‘A New Hope’, 2020 the ‘Empire Strikes Back’, next election will be ‘Return of the Jedi’
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If you've been waiting for EPF to announce their dividend for 2020. Quick nerdy check: last 5 years announcement dates:
22 Feb 2020
16 Feb 2019
10 Feb 2018
19 Feb 2017
20 Feb 2016
So
@KWSPMalaysia
- today is the last working day to make it in Feb and keep the streak alive! 🤞
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Everyone with floating rate home loans should buckle up (or down) for the next 6 months!
25bps is about RM35/month more for every RM250k principal.
I would prep for another 3-5 of these increases till the rest of the year.
The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee today decided to increase the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) to 2.00%.
Find out more at
#MPC
#OPR
#BNM
#monetarypolicy
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Malaysia's retirement crisis, what can be done?
Some maths first (sorry!). Assume one needs minimum RM500,000 for a decent retirement or 'persaraan bermaruah', rather than just RM240,000 EPF Basic.
To get RM500,000, one needs to save ~RM500 a month @ 6% div for 30 years.
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Our Deputy FM announced in parliament today some worrying EPF stats:
- RM145bn withdrawn for i-Sinar, i-Lestari etc.
- 25% working ppl have < RM1,000 (ie nothing).
- 52% working ppl have < RM10,000 (ie almost nothing).
Millions of 🇲🇾s can't retire!
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Second, change the EPF Contribution model.
Now: 11% employee + 12-13% employer = 23-24%
To: 10% employee + 20% employer on first RM2,000 / month, 10% above RM2,000 = 20-30%
RM2,000 salary = 30% total
RM10,000 salary = 23% total (same as now)
RM100,000 salary = 20.2% total
8/n
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KWSP 2022:
1. Investment income = RM55.33bn
2. AUM = RM1.003trn
3. Dividend announced = 5.35% Conv, 4.75% Shariah
Sometimes a bit of logic and targeted guessing works!
Yup. 2 key numbers:
1. Investment income: If FY2022 18% 🔻on FY2021 (RM67bn) = RM55bn.
2. Est. 2022 AUM = RM1.05trn
(RM1.01trn + RM80b contr. - RM50b reg withdrawal - RM40b special Apr-22 withdrawal + (1))
RM55b / RM1.05trn = 5.25%
So my guess is 5.0-5.5% for 2022 Div.
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Everyone living in Malaysia 🇲🇾 earning >RM4,000 will have a tax file with LHDN.
For salaried employees, employer only asks (1) are you married (2) how many kids you have.
They use that info and follow a table (PCB) to deduct off your salary and pay to LHDN monthly.
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USD:MYR = 4.48 ‼️
SGD:MYR = 3.23
CNY:MYR = 0.66
Our 3 top trading partners are USA, SG and China (~45%). Later we'll see how RM weakness has affected our export/import performance in July.
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So our 2023 Dividend how?
Assuming avg 2023 AUM of RM1.08 trn (we started the year with RM1.003 Trn and may end ~RM1.15 Trn).
If you 2x the 1H investment performance = RM66.4bn income.
66.4 bn / 1.08 trn = 6.15%
Dividend Payouts usually 90-95% of income = ~5.6-5.8% 🔥
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So, assuming things stay as they are, and both the Malaysian 🇲🇾and Global 🌏economies stay on current trends as per 9M 2023:
We're looking at a 5.4-5.7% 2023 EPF Dividend.
If you enjoyed this thread, do give me
@ooihann
a follow, I tweet 1-2x weekly on finance-y things!
n/n
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Akaun Fleksibel is actually a game changer: if EPF dividends continue to avg 5.5% p.a., that's arguably higher than any other liquid account to store emergency funds or short term savings.
EPF 5.5% compared to Money market funds and ASB/M in the 3.5 - 5.0% p.a. range.
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Malaysia's 🇲🇾CPI for May 2023: +2.8% YoY 🔺
It might seem that things are moderating (and yes a little, down from 3.3% YoY in April), but if you dig deeper you'll see:
Core inflation, sticky 3.5% 🔥
Food inflation, still high 5.9% 🍜
Restaurants/Hotels, same 6.7% 🍽️
So OPR
Malaysia's 🇲🇾 CPI (aka inflation) numbers for May 2023 gets released today.
April 2023's was +3.3% YoY.
What do we think the May 2023 YoY growth number will be?
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So how tax reliefs work? Well, if your salary = RM8,000 or RM96,000 / year, there's a table on % you pay (below), after reliefs.
Tax reliefs reduce taxable income. Eg. RM3,000 in PRS will reduce it by RM3,000.
If your tax rate = 13%, you saved RM390 of tax (RM3,000 x 13%).
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How did this happen?
Things not great before, but early "i" EPF withdrawal schemes have made a problem an outright crisis.
RM10k is very far from the EPF Basic Savings of RM240k (which itself is too low).
We haven't even covered the informal (gig) & govt sector yet.
3/n
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For M40 folks:
- 2% income tax reduction for earnings between RM50,000 - RM100,000 / year. Basically the 13% band ->11% and the 21% band->19%
- RM100 one off e-wallet credit for those earning <RM100,000/year (8 million of us)
7/n
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More tax reliefs (3):
✅ RM3,000 Life Insurance (RM7,000 for civil servants)
✅ RM3,000 Medical Insurance
✅ RM3,000 Childcare fees (child <7 yr)
✅ RM2,000 - 8,000 Children education (depending on level)
✅ RM7,000 Education for self (inc. RM1,000 for upskilling)
7/n
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Most experts agree that 2022 Inflation in Malaysia is caused by:
1. Covid Shutdown 2020-2021 & 2022 Reopening.
2. China Covid Zero Policy.
3. Russia / Ukraine Conflict.
4. MYR weakness.
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Reminder, bands are for households, at 1.8x income earners per household, the equivalent numbers for individuals are:
T20: >RM6,560 / mo
M40: RM2,900 - RM6,560 / mo
B40: < RM2,900 / mo
Yes, if in a household of 2 individuals earning >RM6,600 each you're considered a T20!
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So before 31 Dec, I'll check/do:
✅RM3,000 PRS
✅RM7,000 EPF (Mandatory up to RM4k, NEW Self-contribution up to RM3k)
✅RM8,000 SSPN
✅RM350 SOCSO
✅RM1,000 Vaccination for self and family
✅RM1,000 Medical check or Covid-19 test kits
✅RM3,000 Medical insurance
5/n
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Today,
@statsmalaysia
just released the household income numbers for 2022 (3 years later):
Average = RM8,479 / mo
Median = RM6,338 / mo
T20: >RM11,820 / mo
M40: RM5,250 - RM11,820 / mo
B40: <RM5,250 / mo
Up 🔺by 8-9% across the board in 3 years
4/n
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2 Mar 2022 it is! EPF 2021 Dividend announced:
6.10% Conventional
5.65% Shariah
Quite a bit higher than most folks’ (and my) expectations. This should go down well with folks who left their money intact, but bittersweet for many due to their withdrawals last year.
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So it's a little confusing, they should probably try to be consistent, but at least the numbers are accurate and all there.
Inflation at 4.7% 🔥 , but as always, digging deeper finds:
- Food 🔺 7.2%
- Restaurants & hotels 🔺6.4%
- Transport 🔺 5.2%
Things we buy everyday.
3/n
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By changing to a 10% + 10-20% model, lower income folks get a huge boost, without being forced to deduct more for their own contributions (and get extra 1% back)
In fact, a total 30% of RM2,000 = RM600 (based on my maths in 5/n, enough to retire with decency at >RM500,000).
9/n
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Today, EPF dropped a fairly large half-yearly summary report here:
The EPF portfolio:
- AUM: RM1,082,450,000,000
- Asset Class: 43% Equities, 46% Fixed Income, 4% Money markets, 7% Real Estate/Infra
- Geography: 38.7% Overseas 🌏, 61.3% Domestic 🇲🇾
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OK, but does it directly affect us? Well, pulling out a few key things:
- EPF self contribution limit up from RM60k to RM100k
- RM3k tax relief expanded for self contributions
- ASB limit up from RM200k to RM300k
Guess our funds need replenishing:
5/n
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So, if I were in the 'penerangan' teams of either PH or BN/PN, I would focus on:
🟦 : Strong GDP, Low Unemployment
🟥 : High Inflation, Weak Ringgit, High Underemployment
and how you address/improve it.
But Hann, voters don't care about these right? Actually, they do...
8/n
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First, direct aid rather than force EPF withdrawals.
Govt must close Pandora's box and give direct aid, not force poorer folks to choose now vs. future.
SO EASY MEH? Well, RM77bn / year (similar to EPF withdrawals!), that's a whole other thread:
7/n
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Loads more to break down over the coming days, but plenty of resources here for all you fellow nerds:
Enjoyed this 🧵 so far? Follow me meanwhile
@ooihann
where I'll dig deeper!
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On debt, our Federal Govt Debt is now RM1.05 trillion, 61% of GDP (65% is the limit).
Not great, but strong GDP this year means it's actually dropped from 63.4% last year.
The reason for this is our 2022 Budget Deficit (~5.8%) was less than our GDP growth (6.5-7.0%) 👍
4/n
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So, everyone tells us to earn & save more for a comfortable retirement (and it's true), but the most important factor is Savings Rate.
A good Savings Rate? Well:
20% retires you in 30 years
33% retires you in 20 years
50% retires you in 14 years 💣
Regardless of income!
10/n
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Malaysia's🇲🇾 Wholesale and Retail Trade numbers for August 2022 got released today - RM133.7bn 🚀
That's an all-time record (June 2022 was RM132.8bn, driven by 🔺car purchases meeting the SST deadline).
With
#PRU15
coming, does it matter? I think so, read 🧵on for more...
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BUT, your employer doesn't know if you bought any computers, or sports stuff, or contributed PRS etc.
So if you did, they definitely 'overpaid' on your behalf for 2022.
Mar-Apr 2023 is when we claim it (from LHDN), but only if you did/bought those things in 2022.
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Malaysia 🇲🇾 Inflation for August 2023 just released, CPI +2.0% YoY.
Same as July 2023 (it was also +2.0% YoY), so looks like the inflation monster has been tamed after 1.5 years!
Or has it?? Let's dig in and find out more:
🧵
1/n
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Subsidies how? This year (2022) estimated to be RM77.7bn for fuel, BKM and food, next year's allocation is RM55bn.
Either the govt is going to finally rationalise subsidies in 2023 to make it income based, or they are projecting (dangerous game) lower fuel & food prices.
8/n
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Third, increasing incomes. Minimum wage is RM1,500 / month.
My simple math needs >RM1,650 / month @ 30% contribution to get to RM500 EPF saving ~ RM500,000 retirement after 30 years.
The hard part = lift everyone above this minimum, but that's a thread for another day!
11/n
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Congrats to my bros
@radzitajuddin
and
@SyedSaddiq
on the registration of
@partimuda
! Well deserved after more than a year.
Everyone has seen what you guys can do even without being registered, sky’s the limit now!
Sharing a quote from the startup world: Still only 1% done!
MUDA SUDAH LULUS.🎉
Birthday MUDA 23 Disember 2021!!
Maaf tidak maklumkan lebih awal kerana kita mahu fokus pada misi banjir.
Join us now! Semua boleh jadi ahli MUDA - tua, muda, muslim, non muslim!
MUDA is a party for ALL & a party for the FUTURE!
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20% WILL BANKRUPT EMPLOYERS! Not really, as employers will save 2% on any salary amounts above RM2,000 vs current.
Context: If you earn RM30,000 / month now with a ~RM6,900 contribution, need the extra RM600 (2%) to retire?
Calibrate thresholds to equalise employers lah.
10/n
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BNM's MPC just announced Malaysia's 🇲🇾OPR held at 3.00%!
They added statements vs Sep 2023:
- USD strength affecting MYR but not MY economic growth prospects
- mentioned China economic recovery
- MPC meeting 6x in 2024
No OPR change till 2024 then!
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank Negara Malaysia decided to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3%.
You can find the Monetary Policy Statement on the BNM website.
#MPC
#OPR
#MonetaryPolicy
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So BNM has to go with option 2.
Option 2 - Reduce demand. Increase OPR = less money to spend = less demand = lower inflation.
Unfortunately, to control inflation, there might be some collateral damage, ie the rakyat and our wallets.
11/n
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At Malaysia's 2023 est. GDP at RM1.82 trillion, the RM99 billion Budget Deficit is 5.5%.
This is considered high, most governments aim for <3%, but it is lower than the 2020/2021 Covid-damaged levels of ~6.5%.
At >3% we overly increase our debt 🚀
3/n
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EPF Investment Income:
- 🔺 RM18.02bn Q2 2023 vs RM8.98bn Q2 2022
- 🔺 RM33.19bn 1H 2023 vs RM23.75bn 1H 2022
Growth factors:
- Overseas - 61% of income vs 38% of portfolio
- Equity - 53% of income vs 43% of portfolio
- Real Estate - 15% of income vs 7% of portfolio
3/n
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More obscure ones:
✅ RM8,000 Medical expenses for parents
✅ RM6,000 - 8,000 Medical expenses for parents (RM6,000 if max out vaccination + RTK)
✅ RM6,000 Disability supporting equipment
✅ RM2,500 EV charging facilities
✅ RM1,000 Breastfeeding equipment (child <2yr)
8/n
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Malaysia's 🇲🇾 Wholesale & Retail Trade (WRT) for Jan 2023 was just announced today at RM135.1bn - up 🔺 12.4% from Jan 2022.
So, all things looking good for the economy for 2023?
Maybe, but not so fast, we need to look deeper 🧵 :
1/n
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So our 2023 Dividend how?
Assuming 2023 avg AUM = RM1.07 Trn (we started 2023 with RM1.003 Trn and may end ~RM1.12 Trn).
If you extrapolate the 9M performance to 12M = RM63.8bn income.
63.8 bn / 1.07 trn = 5.96%
Dividend Payouts usually 90-95% of income = ~5.4-5.7% 🔥
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If you were 30, to get to RM1,000,000 at 60, you'll need:
- to contribute RM1,000 / monthly
- EPF dividends at 6%
- for 30 years.
So yes, nice round numbers - and we can just use any online calculator for this.
But how long does RM1,000,000 last?
4/n
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For B40 folks, BKM:
- RM2,500 one off for super low income (<RM2,500/mo) families with >5 kids
- RM1,000 - RM2,000 for super low income families with 0-4 kids
- RM500 - RM1,250 for low income (RM2,500-RM5,000/mo) families with 0-4+ kids
- additional RM500 for single parents
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BNM holds OPR at 2.75% today, a first pause ⏸️ in 5 meetings after 4 straight increases of 25bps.
We're still below the pre-pandemic level of 3.00% - 3.25%, so something in the December 2022 data must have 'spooked' the MPC.
Looks like no increase in installments for now!
The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is maintained at 2.75% today. Read our official statement here:
Please visit our FAQs to learn more about monetary policy, including the OPR: .
#MPC
#OPR
#BNM
#monetarypolicy
#dasarmonetari
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@magicross7
The first RM100k is the hardest! Keep plugging away, you’ll get to wherever you deserve!
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So 🇲🇾 Budget 2023 announcement looks to be moved to 7 October (from 28 October).
Some saying Parliament will be dissolved next day: 8 Oct.
If we look back:
- GE13: 3 Apr 2013 -> 5 May 2013 (32d)
- GE14: 7 Apr 2018 -> 9 May 2018 (32d)
So,
GE15: 8 Oct 2022 -> 9 Nov 2022❓
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Malaysia 🇲🇾 has a secret economic engine waiting to be unleashed, one that makes us a high income country in 2-3 years.
Women ♀️
I'm not an economist (finance/investment nerd), but I'm an ally, so here's a full thread 🧵 reply to
@mb_rights
below:
1/n
Good thread. May you please gender desegregate the data and do an analysis on women in the labour workforce?
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