Pro Tennis Bettor nishi
@nishikoripicks
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🎾 I write a FREE Daily Newsletter on Tennis Betting. 📊 +6% Yield in +4k bets(Pinnacle odds) 🆓 Sometimes I send FREE picks
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Joined August 2016
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🚨 If you register in the betting broker BetInAsia, you'll be able to bet in:
✅ Pinnacle and other Asian bookies
✅ Betfair Exch. and other exchanges
✅ Get an Exclusive 0.11% Lifetime Cashback
You must register through the link below, deposit a min. of 100€ and enter the
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🇫🇷🎾 ¿Sabías que
#RolandGarros
es el torneo del circuito ATP en el que menos sorpresas se producen?
🐶❌ Y que, si hubieras apostado a todos los No Favoritos o Underdogs, desde 2010 hasta 2023 hubieras perdido una fortuna y si lo hubieras hecho a todos los Favoritos, a ciegas,
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Alcaraz vs Djokovic en SF
#RolandGarros
2023.
Federer vs. Nalbandian in SF
#RolandGarros
2006.
I cannot believe it.
Courtesy of
@PabloPuente17
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Have you heard of the Closing Line Value (CLV) Theory but aren't sure what it is? Here I will explain:
1. What CLV is
2. How to calculate the EV of all your bets
3. If it applies to Tennis (with my own sample of 4511 bets)
4. How you can use it to win money betting 👇
• The
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🇮🇳 Sumit Nagal (ATP
#159
)
"If I look at my bank balance, I have what I had at the start of the year: 900€. I don't have any big sponsor. I don't have anything in savings. I'm just break even."
📝 This is how match-fixing in Tennis works:
First of all, I want to clarify that
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✅ Betting against a player who has defeated any of the BIG 3 in his previous match has been highly profitable.
You can read below all the details of the analysis. 👇
🛠 For years, I had the intuition that betting against players who had just defeated Djokovic, Nadal, or
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🇨🇳🎾The Shaghai Masters 1000 is played on outdoor hard courts, that are renowned as some of the quickest in the circuit. 🚀
📊 Service stats in the last 2 years the tournament was held (2018 & 2019):
- 83% 1st serve points won
- 0.63 aces/game
🎙 Players' statements:
Rublev,
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I don't like Tsitsipas. Not at all. I never liked him.
And I'm not speaking about him as a player. He's so unsportsmanlike... If you're injured, let Hurkacz play.
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🇮🇳 Sumit Nagal, in 2023:
"If I look at my bank balance, I have what I had at the start of the year: 900€. I don't have any big sponsor. I don't have anything in savings. I'm just break even."
Today, he has reached the 2nd round of Monte Carlo and has secured at least €39,577.
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🚨 In this post I'm gonna tell you how you can bet on Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange, even if you are in a restricted country.
💰 Not only that, you'll receive a 0.11% Lifetime Cashback on all your bets.
📝 It's going to be a long post, but I assure you it will be worthwhile.
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🇯🇵 The Tokyo ATP 500 tournament is played on outdoor quick hard decoturf courts.
📊 Service stats in 2022 (it was not played in 2020 and 2021):
- 71.5%
- 0.54 aces/game
🎙 Players' statements:
Shapovalov, 2022: "The fast court plays well into my game".
Fritz, 2022:
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Match fixing definitely occurs in Tennis. It's the ideal sport for it. Liquidity is high and players don't even need to arrange anything with their opponents; they can simply lose on purpose. It's easy to miss balls, make errors and not be as intense.
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Yesterday, I shared 2 FREE picks on Twitter with odds of 4.16 and 3.27, both winners. This follows wins at 3.2 on October 5th and 2.81 on October 4th.
While I'm pleased with you making money, I experienced a bit of imposter syndrome after the reaction on Twitter. Here's why:
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🎥 Here you can read the summary of the recently (just finished) published interview with Rafa Nadal on Movistar.
This was the last question:
• Do you want to be the president of Real Madrid? "... I don't know. If I would like to, I think so. Time will tell."
• I watch
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FREE pick for 🇨🇳 ATP Zhuai 250 (Final):
🎾 Nishioka to beat Khachanov @ 2.40 at Pinnacle (Min 2.10)
📝 Here you can read why I think there is value on the Japanese odds:
• I believe the market is focusing too much on the 6-0, 6-0, 7-6 that Khachanov handed to Nishioka
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🇧🇬 FREE pick for ATP Sofia 250
🎾Baez to beat Kotov @ 2.34 at Pinnacle (min. 1.90).
✍ In my opinion, the market is wrong. The main reason why Kotov is the favorite is his excellent performance in the Stockholm tournament, where he reached the final against Monfils, and
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@jmgmoron
Por esto es por lo que muchos jugadores amañan partidos. Aquí lo explico:
🇮🇳 Sumit Nagal (ATP
#159
)
"If I look at my bank balance, I have what I had at the start of the year: 900€. I don't have any big sponsor. I don't have anything in savings. I'm just break even."
📝 This is how match-fixing in Tennis works:
First of all, I want to clarify that
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🎾🇦🇺 Are you betting in the
#AusOpen
?
🐶 You'd better select well your Underdogs...
📊 This analysis consists of blind betting the Favourites or the Underdogs in every match. I've taken:
- Main draw MEN Grand Slam
- Last 10 seasons
- Pinnacle closing odds
- 1 unit flat stake
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On Monday, I sent a pick over here, that Nishioka would beat Khachanov. I gave it a 50% prob., so I saw value in the 2.40 odds.
But the Pinnacle closing odds were 2.56 😠, Khachanov won and I, along with those who followed me, lost money.
Was it then a bad bet? Read this if
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Fritz lost today to the Japanese Mochizuki in Tokyo, by 0-6, 6-4, 7-6. Fritz was leading 6-0, 1-0 and was ahead 5-2 in the 3rd set.
Some bettors on Twitter have raised suspicions of match fixing. Did Fritz rig the match?
✍ These are my views about Match Fixing in Tennis, a
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🇮🇹 FREE pick for the Nitto ATP Finals.
🎾 Rune - 2 games (AH) vs Tsitsipas @ 2.01 at Pinnacle (min. 1.80).
✍ Below, you'll find why I see value in the Danish player's odds.
• Tsitsipas has entered his first match in Turin with many doubts due to the state of his back.
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If you bet on Tennis, you should definitely have an account in Betfair Exchange.
I'm explaining below how a Betting Exchange works and why it's essential for any bettor.
I'll use Betfair Exchange as an example; it's the biggest exch. with higher liquidity and the best odds.👇
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This is how much you would have lost if you had bet $1 on all the Favourites or on all the Underdogs, in all the ATP main draw matches, since 2010, at Pinnacle closing odds.
• Yield Favourites: -1.9%
• Yield Underdogs: -6.0%
Obviously, it doesn't make any sense to do this.
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🇨🇳 FREE pick for Shanghai Masters 1000
🎾 Safiullin to beat Zverev @ 3.20 at Pinnacle (min. 3.0)
✍ Here you can read why I think there is value on the Russian's odds:
• Safiullin and Zverev clashed in the Chengdu final just 9 days ago. In a tense 3-setter (6-7, 7-6, 6-3),
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• Had I told you that I like to bet on players who have saved match points in the previous game?
• I had the intuition... And I analyzed the data of 2023. If you had bet on all the players who saved at least one match point in their previus match, you would have made money.
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🇫🇷 The Paris Masters 1000 tournament is played on indoor hard Greenset quick courts. (Main draw attached).
📊Service stats:
- 1st serve points won: 73.0% (2022), 70.5% (2021), 73.5% (2020)
- Aces/game: 0.50 (2022), 0.46 (2021), 0.58 (2020)
🎙 Players' statements:
Alcaraz,
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A judge has forced Betfair Spain (
@Betfair_es
) to remove all the restrictions imposed to the plaintiffs' accounts. Only the general limitations by each market and common to all the players are allowed, NOT INDIVIDUAL ONES. 👏👏👏
Me he propuesto informar más por este medio, hoy os traigo una buena noticia, hemos ganado el juicio a
@Betfair_ES
y están obligados a eliminar las restricciones de las cuentas de los demandantes. Show must go on!!
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If you see your losing bets as failures and your winning bets as successes, you have a problem.
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More Bubliks, more Paires, more Kyrgios, more Monfils.
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🖥🛠 I strongly recommend you this sports system simulation tool. It's an advanced CALCULATOR, just launched today by
@Miguel_Figueres
. It shows the efficacy of your betting system and estimates some key risk and return metrics every bettor should know.
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Bad bettors get angry after a loss.
Successful ones don't give a sh*t about losing a bet, think in probabilities and see their bankroll as a pension fund.
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🇫🇷 FREE pick for ATP Paris Masters 1000
🎾 Lajovic to beat Bonzi @ 2.05 at Pinnacle (min. 1.90).
✍ The market is favoring Bonzi, but I believe it should be the other way around. Next, I'll explain why:
• The Frenchman is coming off a Challenger final in Brest, France,
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🇧🇬 The Sofia ATP 250 tournament is played on a Greenset Indoor Hard court. (Final Main Draw attached).
📊 Service stats:
- 1st serve points won: 73.9% (2022). 71.7% (2021). 73.0% (2020)
- Aces/game: 0.52 (2022), 0.50 (2021), 0.48 (2020)
🎙 Players' statements:
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Starting today you can subscribe to my NEW email "Tennis Edge Daily":
👉
You'll receive FREE picks, Tournament Previews,
Analysis and much more.
If you subscribe, you'll also get this PDF.
All ATP tournaments, Ranked by Court Speed, in ONE SINGLE PAGE.
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I’ve been a professional Tennis bettor for the past 10 years. If you want to embark on this journey, this is my advice. Here you will find many ideas I would have liked to know when I started. It will take me some hours or days to develop all the thread.
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❌ Today, I'm going to talk about my mistakes as a bettor.
When decisions are made by your mind rather than an algorithm, correcting certain biases can be complicated.
Here, I'll outline 3 mistakes I've identified in my approach as a bettor:
1. Betting against fatigued
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As time goes by and you've got more experience you realize that not to bet is a bet in itself. When in doubt about the value of a bet, my advice is not doing it and not take it as a potential missed opportunity but a decision that will likely increment your yield in the long run.
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Do you like the new design of ? Maybe it's due to "resistance to change", but I personally preferred the old one.
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1⃣🎾 This thread is about the 1st SET BET in Tennis.
Over the years, I have managed to achieve a 13.7% Yield in 402 1st set bets, always at Pinnacle odds.
Even though the price of these bets on dogs is lower than that of the money line, I like 1st set bets. Here the reasons:
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🇧🇪 FREE picks for ATP 250 Antwerp
🎾 Varillas to beat Marozsan @ 4.16 at Pinnacle (min. 3.80).
🎾 Varillas to win 1st set @ 3.27 at Pinnacle (min. 3.0).
✍ If you ask me who I think will win this match, I'd say Marozsan. However, if you ask me where the value is, I believe it's
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@Dimonator
If they intended to fix a match, why would they wait until they're leading 9-0? Don't you realize that any mistake by their opponents could ruin it?
This is NOT a fix. These things happen.
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There are 3 type of bettors:
1. Get Euphoric after wins, Depressed after losses.
2. Get Happy after wins, Upset after losses.
3. Nothing after wins, Nothing after losses.
The best ones are able to go from 1 to 3.
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Historical moments.
Djokovic’s first-ever tennis practice at 4 years old in Kopaonik, Serbia - fascinating footage
This is why you should always record your kids
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5K
45K
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It's an honor to belong to the content creation team of
@Pinnacle
, the best bookie in the world.
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📽 If you haven't done so already, I recommend listening to this interesting interview with the former Trading Director of
@Pinnacle
(the bookmaker par excellence for professional bettors), Marco Blume.
In it, Marco explains how the betting market works, how their traders
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Favourite-longshot bias explained in one single image:
• Top: Betfair Exchange
• Bottom: Pinnacle
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If Sinner defeats Rune, Sinner wins the group and Djokovic qualifies 2nd.
If Rune defeats Sinner, Rune wins the group and Sinner qualifies 2nd. Djokovic OUT.
🤔 Will Sinner intentionally lose to Rune to eliminate Djokovic?
I am convinced that he won't. Why?
1. He would be
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🇲🇽 FREE pick for ATP 500 Acapulco
🎾 Kovacevic to beat Thompson @ 2.54 at Pinnacle (Min 2.20).
🎾 Kovacevic to win 1st set @ 2.18 at Pinnacle (Min 2.10).
This is why I think there is value on the American's odds:
Thompson won his first career title last Sunday in Los Cabos
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Today, I bet that Struff would win the 1st set against Auger-Aliassime at odds of 2.67, and I lost.
FAA won the 1st set tie-break, and Struff had some great opportunities, which might make you think it was a good bet.
But maybe it was a "Value Trap". Let me share my impressions
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When everyone thinks the same about a bet and shares the same opinion, it's surely already reflected in the odds and overvalued. It's when you think differently, analyze from different angles, that you're more likely to find odds with a + expected value. Easy to say, tough to do.
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Several bettors asked me the same thing in the last days. I CANNOT GUARANTEE PROFITS, NOT EVEN IN A WHOLE SEASON. Distrust completely those tipsters who tell you the contrary.
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Sinner has just withdrawn from the Paris Masters 1000, due to the schedule they've given him, which hasn't allowed him to have enough time to rest.
Well done Jannick!!
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If the pain hits hard every time you lose a bet, you've bet more than you should have.
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Stop being Superhappy for 1 bet win.
Stop being Supersad for 1 bet loss.
Stop thinking about 1 bet.
Start thinking about 5000 bets.
merry xtmas.
(adapted from
@MoneyTradeEdge
)
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In my opinion, the best bets are those where you notice the value quickly when you see the odds. And when you even have to double check that there isn't any piece of info that you are missing.
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Have just read this article by
@davehill77
about
@spanky
and Sports Betting in the US. It's worth a read. Really interesting.
And I'd like to ask spanky if the closing line is ALL to him.
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5.27
3.79
4.16
3.27
3.20
2.81
The probability of winning these 6 consecutive bets is 1 in 2443. Well, it's actually higher (lower than 2443) because the bets on the first set and the match winner are correlated.
At anycase, variance has much more to do with it than me,
🇨🇭 FREE picks for ATP 500 Basel
🎾 Etcheverry to beat Korda @ 5.27 at Pinnacle (min. 4.50).
🎾 Etcheverry to win 1st set @ 3.79 at Pinnacle (min. 3.40).
✍ My initial impression after seeing the odds for this match was one of great surprise:
Although Korda is in very good
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On numerous occasions, I've been inquired about the source of the Tennis odds I use for my analyses. I'm more than happy to share this information.
I obtain the data from .
This site offers FREE CSV files that contain the Pinnacle closing odds for every
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🇺🇸🎾 Here my Preview of the Miami Masters 1000.
Miami is played on OUTDOOR HARD courts. But, are these courts QUICK or SLOW?
⚡🐢 Surface Speed:
You can notice the clear difference in speed between 2022 and 2023.
• Points won on 1st serve (73.2% in 2023, 70.9% in 2022)
•
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FREE picks sent to my subscribers 40 min. ago:
• Munar to beat Mannarino @ 3.68 in Pinnacle (min 3.40)
• Munar +6 @ 1.83 in Pinnacle (min 1.70)
Is Mannarino likely to beat Munar? YES.
Is betting on Munar likely to lose your money? YES.
Can this type of bet yield long-term
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Many of you have asked me. The tool I use to keep up with all the Tennis market news is
@Tennisform
.
In it, you can read match reports, injury news, player quotes, statistics... You can filter the information by either player or tournament.
The cost is too low (35€/month or
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🎾☘ Underdogs perform specially well in GRASS tournaments (Wimbledon not included)
📊 Yield from 2010, 2153 matches, Pinnacle closing odds:
- Favourites: -3.1%
- Underdogs: +1.84%
Quite remarkable, if we consider the Fav-Longshot bias plays against (avg. odds underdgos : 3.71)
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🇫🇷beaucoup de fans français ces derniers temps. Je vais apprendre le français!!🇫🇷
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Are you familiar with the Closing Line Value (CLV) Theory? If you're into betting, you should know it well. It is a MUST.
I explain it in these 2 videos.
📽 Part I:
📽 Part II:
Some bettors fully support the CLV Theory, while
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🇨🇳 FREE pick for Shanghai Masters 1000
🎾 Hsu Y. H. to beat Purcell @ 2.81 at Pinnacle (min. 2.40)
✍ Here you can read why I think there is value on the Taiwanese odds:
• The player from Taipei comes from playing the qualies, so his acclimatization to the court conditions
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FREE picks for ATP Chengdu 250:
🎾 Kotov to beat Zverev @ 9.11 at Pinnacle (Min 7.0)
🎾 Kotov +5 @ 2.06 at Pinnacle (Min 1.85)
📝 Zverev is the big favorite, but he doesn’t deserve such low odds. The value is, in my opinion, clearly in the Russian’s odds. Here you can read
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To those who criticize my picks with politeness, before the match, utmost respect, even if I disagree.
To those who do it if the bet is a loss, post-match, my disdain.
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A reminder that betting on Underdogs in the Australian Open (and generally in Grand Slams) is tough...
AO 2023 data not included. I will update it in some days.
Pinnacle closing odds, flat stakes, used.
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I’ve seen some pretty good bettors fail because they become too aggressive.
Managing your stakes in a conservative way won’t make you rich, but it can keep you in the game.
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FREE pick for ATP Zhuai 250:
🎾 Nishioka to beat Struff @ 1.70 at Pinnacle (Min 1.60)
📝 Here you can read why I think there is value on the Japanese odds:
• This will be Struff’s 2nd official match in the last 3 months, after his rib injury. He beat the Chilean Garin in
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Not easy but in every bet I do I I try to detect what details about a game are not reflected in the odds, what I am seeing that the market is not. If you bet based on factors and info that are vox populi, you won't end up winning. To make money betting you have to think different
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Sebastien Ofner lost this match in front of his home crowd.
I want to give a big hug to Ofner 1.01 backers in
@BetfairExchange
.
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🎾 Forget all what you know about Tennis betting.
Don't bet on your own, don't follow Tipsters, not even me.
💣 The best Strategy in Tennis is laying BENOIT PAIRE when serving for the match. And even better when match point up. Yields of +500%.
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Seeking clarity on surface speeds for 2024's tournaments?
The chart and table below effectively illustrate the range between SLOW and FAST speeds across the different surfaces.
Only ATP, singles, main draw + qualies.
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The difference between the GOOD and the TOP players. History repeats itself.
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🎥Hi,
@Pyckio
has offered me the opportunity to lead a new Youtube channel, THE BETTING INSTITUTE, where I will share all what I have learned about Sports Betting over the years. You can subscribe here:
👉
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Reaching 4,300 picks, with a 6.8% Yield (Pinnacle odds). After a bad 2022, in 2023 I've made a 11.3% Yield in 279 tips so far.
I cannot guarantee profits. You could even lose all your bankroll if you follow me, THIS IS BETTING!! Do not trust any tipster who promises otherwise.
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Do you want to estimate the TRUE ODDS of any Tennis match, in order to calculate the Expected Value (EV) of a bet?
The method who does it most accurately for TENNIS is the "Odds Ratio", closely followed by the "Margin proportionall to odds" method.
You can use this calculator
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The best bettors and tipsters always speak in terms of uncertainty and probability. They understand and acknowledge that betting is very tough. Beware of those who who appear overly confident. Succeeding in betting is the art of managing probabilities, even if done unconsciously.
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🎖 How to know if you or the tipster you follow are long-term winning bettors?
🛠 This
@winnerodds
calculator you can find below, can definitely help you.
📊 Just enter your Number of bets, Yield and Avg. Odds, and you'll know the Prob. that your results are due to chance. 👇
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In this post, I want to illustrate in a very graphic way the importance of VARIANCE in betting.
Most bettors, in general, are not aware of its importance in the short term.
And I'm going to do it using the example of my 31 FREE picks sent to my followers on Twitter in 2023:
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🇸🇪 The Stockholm ATP 250 (BNP Paribas Nordic Open) is played on indoor hard plexipave courts.
📊 Service stats:
- 1st serve points won: 70.2% (2022), 73.6% (2021)
- Aces/game: 0.42 (2022), 0.49 (2021)
🎙 Players' statements:
Shapovalov, 2022: "It’s one of the best courts for
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Let me give you one piece of advice when following tipsters. ALWAYS ask for the LEVEL STAKES YIELD. You would be surprised if you saw how many tipsters lower their stakes as time goes by, to "protect" their past yield.
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Thank you
@Pinnacle
for publishing the article I wrote about how to estimate the True Odds in Tennis.
At the end of the post, you'll find the link to it, but here's a summary:
• Why is it important to estimate the true odds? If you aim to calculate the Expected Value (EV) of
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Gasquet after the training with Rafa:
"We trained for 3 hours and 15 minutes. Very good intensity. Obviously, he's missing a little time. But hey, he's already playing very well. In any case, we did 3 very good sets. I won 2 of them !"
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For Massimo, the fair price on Sinner is 1.05, vs. 1.34 now in Pinnacle.
Let's congratulate him for finding such an edge!!
@nishikoripicks
Do you watch tennis tho? You’re making a donation if you bet on Rune, cuz there’s 95% that Sinner is gonna win.
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This should be investigated.
Can anyone say any other reason apart from...
Gaston (obviously not with his identity) bet on himself in a bookie that voids the bets if the match is not fully played.
Hugo Gaston really retired *0-40 and 3 MPs down????
Please make it visible to
@ATPChallenger
and
@atptour
because this is normal.
Comments
@HugoGaston7
???
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This post is about ATP Physios and betting...
A few days ago, I bet on Vukic to beat Machac at odds of 2.92, and I lost the bet. This is normal. What is not normal imo, was the movement of the pre-match and in-play odds.
I always observe the odds movement and money on the
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We were so lucky in the 1st set... 😅🍀
Do not get used to hitting these high odds so frequently. Variance is on our side with these free picks.
🇧🇪 FREE picks for ATP 250 Antwerp
🎾 Varillas to beat Marozsan @ 4.16 at Pinnacle (min. 3.80).
🎾 Varillas to win 1st set @ 3.27 at Pinnacle (min. 3.0).
✍ If you ask me who I think will win this match, I'd say Marozsan. However, if you ask me where the value is, I believe it's
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Here my first video of
#TheBettingInstitute
, about the Closing Line Value (CLV). Quite introductory.
I hope you like it.
🎥
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🇨🇭 FREE picks for ATP 500 Basel
🎾 Etcheverry to beat Korda @ 5.27 at Pinnacle (min. 4.50).
🎾 Etcheverry to win 1st set @ 3.79 at Pinnacle (min. 3.40).
✍ My initial impression after seeing the odds for this match was one of great surprise:
Although Korda is in very good
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-10 years blind betting the dogs vs betting the favs in the ATP circuit.
- 25,838 bets, -1.4% ROI for Favs vs -5.7% ROI for dogs
(Pinnacle closing odds data taken from
@12Xpert
site )
- Be careful when betting the dogs ;-). It's the Favourite-longshot bias
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🇫🇷🎾 Roland Garros is the most favourable Grand Slam for FAVOURITES
- In the last 13 years, you'd have achieved a +2.0% Yield if you had bet on all the favourites (1631 valid matches) at Pinnacle closing lines
- If you had bet on all the underdogs you'd have suffered a -22% Yield
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These are the 10 biggest upsets in the last 20 years.
Marozsan beating Alcaraz (30.50) would be the 6th one. (
@Pinnacle
closing odds)
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Yesterday I bet that Murray would beat De Minaur, at odds of 3.41. Murray led 5-2 in the final set and wasted 3 match balls.
The question is, do we have to wait for our player to win the last ball, if we can hedge ourselves live?
✍ Here you can read my opinion on this👇
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I've ranked all the ATP circuit tournaments based on their Speed over the past 2 years.
1st serve points won (%), Service Hold (%), Aces/game, TB/set:
- Fastest: 🇮🇹 Turin (WTF). 77.3%, 87.8%, 0.79, 0.32
- Slowest: 🇦🇷 Buenos Aires. 65.0%, 71.4%, 0.24, 0.14
More soon...
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Watching matches is generally positive for a bettor because you can perceive things that you cannot see just looking at the statistics. However, when a player performance is extremely good or bad, what it leaves in your mind can wrongly affect your judgement for your next bets
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