Nic
@nicrypto
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CEO & Co-founder @coinbureau | Reformed TradFi cryptopreneur | Mensa Member & Defi Degen | Tweets not financial advice
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Will Bitcoin recover from here? Or will it keep falling?
Well, it was a massive deleveraging event that saw a c. 13% collapse in Open Interest.
Based on historical norms, previous events have seen on average a -10% return post deleveraging...
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Sell in May & go away...
Over the past 5 years:
- Buying BTC in October & selling in April had 1,449% cumulative returns.
- However, buying in May & selling in September had -29%
Will we see the same this year? Let's dig in 👇
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Why is crypto crashing?!
And will it continue next week?
Well, there are a number of factors at play that are driving the markets.
Let's take a look 🧵
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This Bitcoin indicator is flashing!
And it's only happened 2 times in its history. On both occasions, BTC rallied by over 775% in less than a year...
So, will it happen again?
Let's dive in 👇
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800 Billion Euros.
That was the size of the biggest money laundering scandal in history. All done through a single Estonian branch of Danske bank.
How many of the bankers were sent to prison for the scandal?
Zero.
HSBC was for years the "preferred financial institution" for
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Controversial opinion: People should be allowed to yolo on memecoins to their heart's content.
Buying lottery tickets is completely legal even though your chances of hitting the lucky number on the mega millions is considerably smaller than making a milly on a memecoin
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Everyone is focused on US based Bitcoin ETFs.
But, this week could see batch approvals of a bunch of spot ETFs in Hong Kong.
This is significant for a number of reasons 🧵
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He says he hates Bitcoin and wants the government to outlaw it.
But his firm was lobbying to be an AP for the ETFs.
He says that Bitcoin is "worthless" and akin to a "pet rock"
But his firm has actively been buying BTC ETF shares.
Completely full of💩
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@WatcherGuru
Is anyone surprised that the body that wants to regulate free speech is also trying to regulate free finance?
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The top 20 high potential cryptos for Q3 according to Grayscale 👇
Some of these I agree with, some not so much.
What about you guys?
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Things have changed in crypto.
The past week has brought about some very important realisations. Some things will not work anymore.
Here are 3 of the biggest realisations so far 👇
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ETH has now completely given up all gains since the ETF announcement.
In other words, it's trading as if the market doesn't expect a single ETH to be bought by ETF issuers.
Ask yourself if that makes sense...
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Tuesday is a big day for Bitcoin ETFs...
That's because the Hong Kong ETF products will start trading. Many are focused on the flows they could or could not bring.
However, there is something much more significant about them 🧵
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Friday is going to be a BIG day for Bitcoin.
Over $4.7bn worth of options will be expiring. Most of the notional exposure is to bullish Call options with strikes over $70k.
The "max pain" price is $65k. This is the price at which most options will expire worthless.
Option
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The SEC: We are suing Coinbase to protect retail investors!
The US Federal Government: Please Coinbase, protect our assets.
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Serious question: What responsibility does the SEC take for destroying the 3rd biggest stablecoin with their false accusations?
They destroyed competition in the stablecoin space. Less competition directly impacts on retail investors. These are the cohorts they claim to help.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC officially ends investigation into stablecoin issuer Paxos, declares $BUSD is not a security.
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Everyone is wondering why the SEC is going after legitimate crypto companies and completely ignoring the scammers, rugpullers & memecoin pump n dumpers.
That's because "investor protection" is the last thing they care about.
They take on these cases because:
1. It's easier
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If ETH ETFs are approved, the next big question is:
Which altcoins are next??
And how long could it take before approval?
Let's take a look 👇
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$SOL to $1,300??
The Grayscale GSOL trust is trading near all time highs & at 7x the NAV.
These institutional buyers are willing to gain $SOL exposure at an implied price of over $1,300
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What's going on with BTC?!
It's almost 2 days from the halving and prices are still muted.
Are we due a late rally? Or will it go lower?
Let's take a look 🧵
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Balances of Bitcoin & Ethereum on exchanges continues falling.
It's at the lowest level in over 4 years.
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Tomorrow could be a volatile day for the crypto markets...
That's because over $15bn in options are reaching Q1 expiry.
Here's what that means 👇
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Controversial Opinion: Some of the hottest coins from the last cycle will never recover their previous all-time-highs.
And, if you are waiting for alt season to save underwater bags, you will be disappointed.
Alt season will be a rising tide, but it won't lift all boats.
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Rug pulling others in crypto must be one of the dumbest moves ever - irrespective of how much you make.
Even if you were a complete sociopath with no conscience & zero empathy for your victims, it's massively -EV from a life utility perspective.
The blockchain is immutable.
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I got that dreaded email that every crypto user runs the risk of receiving.
The email that came out of the blue and left me feeling powerless.
Here's a cautionary tale about a risk that we run by working in this industry - and further proof about why we need crypto 🧵
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ETH has painted the most ungodly of God candles ever.
Bulls are trampling bears like the run of Pamplona.
So, are we on our way to Vitalik's Valhalla? 👇
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Throwback to 3 years ago in previous bull market.
#Bitcoin
reaching new ATHs of $24k &
@coinbureau
YT first breaking through 500k subs.
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Take note:
- 30% loss needs 42% gain to break even
- 50% loss needs 100% gain to break even
- 70% loss needs 233% gain to break even
- 80% loss needs 400% gain to break even
Often the most successful investors know when to cut losses just as well as when to take profit.
Gm.
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So, they are going to put the Tornado Cash developer in jail for 6 years.
The main rationale for the charges is that criminals & state hackers used the open source code he wrote.
But one would also assume that these bad actors used computers with operating systems.
Are the
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There's no way Biden vetoed that bill. He legitimately has never had a singular thought / comment on crypto.
His handlers probably gave him the pen and asked him to sign. Probably told him it was a bill promising him unlimited ice-cream.
Was just doing a bit of research to better understand Biden's initial anti-crypto stance.
The crazy thing though, is that I can't find any videos of him ever talking about it. The only tweet that he ever made was after the 2020 Twitter hack (screenshot).
Yes, the White House
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When the cost of paying your debt is higher than the cost of protecting your country - you have a problem.
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The next alt season won't be the tide that lifts all altcoin boats.
You need to be selective in your picks. Some will never recover their previous ATHs.
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The Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem is growing so fast that we may soon have more layer 2s than users on layer 2s.
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Retail is far away...
While hopes Bitcoin ETFs would spur retail interest, it hasn't picked up at all.
How far away is it? Let's take a look 👇
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There are too many alt Layer 1s. Too many Layer 2s. Too many infra plays. Too many blockchain games. Too many RWA tokens. Too many memecoins.
Just too many tokens.
A preponderance of projects all vying for a pool of capital that isn't growing nearly as fast.
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This is interesting 👀
The balance of $BTC & $ETH on exchanges is at a 4 year low.
This as we move towards the eventual ETH ETF approvals. Supply shock incoming?
Either way, prepare for some volatility
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This chart is crazy...
If any no-coiner ever tells you that they won't invest in Bitcoin because it's "too risky", you need to show them this 👇
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Something is brewing...
With
@alex_fazel
presenting the
@swissborg
&
@coinbureau
Alpha Partnership 🚀
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So, the DOJ seems dead set on pursuing charges against CZ and is looking for a 3 year prison sentence.
However, they were more than happy to drop the campaign finance violations in the SBF trial.
I wonder why 🤔
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Question: What's changes faster than crypto market sentiment?
Answer: The SEC's view on crypto
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The only investors that the SEC is “protecting” by going after Uniswap are the investors who own stocks in US banks.
Decentralised competition against the TradFi monopoly isn’t good for their share prices
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There's a potential crypto catalyst that isn't being factored in.
One that could see crypto natives getting $14bn in fiat to potentially invest in crypto.
Let's dive in 🧵
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So, the Republicans have gone full on into a pro-crypto stance.
And the Democrats are starting an outreach to the community to win us back.
Can someone please check on Miss Liz.
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When you think about it, there are plenty of politicians that were once anti-crypto that have shifted to a more pro-crypto stance.
However, you don't see it happening the other way around.
Over time, this is incredibly bullish - irrespective of ups & downs of regulation.
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But whether this could be enough to counteract the macro remains to be seen.
It's going to be an interesting week...
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Keep your eyes on that $72k level 👀
It's the liquidation level for over $1.5bn in shorts.
Explosive short squeeze with cascading liquidations? 🤔
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Tbh, think the markets have overreacted to FOMC.
Today we had further numbers:
- Lower PPI numbers (2.2% vs. 2.5% expected)
- Higher jobless claims
"Data dependent" Fed getting reasonable Macro data.
Chill out - things will bounce back.
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Bitcoin ETFs had a record week of inflows with $1.8bn. But, why is the price going nowhere?
Well, here's an interesting theory....
Could it be an expansion of the cash & carry trade? i.e., large funds are shorting futures and buying spot through the ETFs.
Given that this is a
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May is a BIG month for token unlocks...
Over $3bn worth of tokens are being unlocked.
No one wants to be someone else's exit liquidity.
So, it's really important to note these dates and adjust accordingly 👇
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This is a BIG risk for Bitcoin!
And it could come soon...
That's the imminent transfer of the Mt Gox coins. Over $9 billion in BTC could soon be hitting the market.
So, will they sell? Let's dig in 👇
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Another reason why the next altseason may not be as big as the last: No stimmy money.
In fact, all the pandemic savings have been completely depleted and gone into deficit.
Yes, a pivot will help but don't expect the 2021 altseason.
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Institutional demand for $SOL investment products is crazy!
The Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) trades at $433.
However, according to their Feb factsheet, each share holds about 0.377 SOL.
This implies a 5.8x premium over spot (price of $1,148) 🤯
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Apparently Biden has dropped out of the presidential race...
Biden is going to be really shocked to hear about this.
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ETH to $22k?!
That's VanEck's price prediction by 2030.
But, that's only their base case. They have a bull case of $154k!!
But, it's their analysis which has the real alpha. When those ETFs launch, this is what investors should focus on 🧵
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Will we see an Altcoin season as crazy as we did in the 2021 cycle?
While some alts are making mad gains, the chances of the wide & deep altseason of previous cycles is less likely.
Here's a few reasons why 👇
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Imagine studying at an Ivy League school to get a job at a Tier 1 Wall street trading firm only to have a college dropout trading memecoins make more in a week than you make in a year.
Crazy times.
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Finally, it's pressing example of why we must resist CBDCs in all of their forms.
While being debanked by a single bank is a pain, being shut out of the system entirely by a capricious central bank is a death knell.
Long live a decentralised future 🚀
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The Coin Bureau has invested in a number of exciting projects which will be launching their main nets soon.
I'll go through some of these now and will add to this thread later as we get closer to other launches.
So, bookmark this tweet 👇
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I'm inclined to think that the Treasury will be forced to act.
Of course, a lot will also depend on what Powell says in the FOMC today.
So, even though many have sold in May, they may not stay away all the way to November.
NFA & all that 🫡
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Bill Gates founded Microsoft but only holds about 1.3% of the shares. He used to own 45% but decided to diversify into other assets (on Buffet's advice).
Steve Ballmer hodled most of his shares and still holds 4.2%.
Soon, he could be overtaking his old boss' net worth.
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SOL is being priced at over $1,000 in the Grayscale GSOL product 👀
The market price of shares is 7.3x the NAV in the trust.
Institutional bullishness could have prompted that speculative VanEck ETF approval.
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Next Cosmos project I want to do a deep dive on - Picasso Network 🎨
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The Bitcoin halving has come - now what?!
Well, we need new catalysts and / or sources of liquidity.
Will they come? And what should you be looking out for?
Let’s take a look 🧵
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Tomorrow is the day...
Hong Kong ETFs are going live.
Here's why it's so important for the Bitcoin ETF landscape
Tuesday is a big day for Bitcoin ETFs...
That's because the Hong Kong ETF products will start trading. Many are focused on the flows they could or could not bring.
However, there is something much more significant about them 🧵
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Wow...
Did you know that Grayscale has a fund that is focused on investing in and staking certain PoS cryptos?
The current % breakdown of their holdings is quite interesting where the largest individual holding is $OSMO
Make of that what you will 👀
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Looking to take your crypto research game to the next level?
Here are some of the best free resources / websites I use on the daily.
Those which need to be on your browser bookmarks 👇
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There are silver linings though. Grayscale outflows can only go on for so long and potential spot ETF launches in Hong Kong could buoy the market.
We are also only 6 days away from the halving which could drive a retail investing narrative.
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On the back of the promising CPI data, probabilities of a rate cut in September have moved considerably.
70% chance of Pivot in September vs. 52% yesterday.
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Bitcoin to $100k by the end of the year?
The bulk of open interest for December CALL expiry is at $100k strike price.
The low put call ratio & negative 6 month skew show sentiment is still bullish in the options market 🤔
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However, according to a report by K33 research, the effect is just as strong in the crypto markets.
The below chart shows the cumulative return if you had followed that strategy.
It's quite stark
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This chart says it all...
The Bitcoin "decoupling" from TradFi markets has almost reversed. 30 day Correlation is at it's highest level since 2022.
Keep this in mind as we head into both the CPI print & FOMC meeting tomorrow.
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Futures funding rates are heating up again today across multiple assets.
Levels approaching those seen last week which led to the fall from first break in ATH.
Pressure building up 👀
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What happens when the ETH ETFs launch?
Will they see massive inflows like the Bitcoin products? Or will they be a disappointment?
This is what you need to know. 👇
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It's pretty clear that the crash yesterday was driven by macro factors. The main concerns right now are the higher than expected inflation and geopolitical tension.
Disappointing earnings guidance from JP Morgan which seems to have taken the lead in sending US markets lower.
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Mt. Gox claims are incredibly concentrated.
The top 1% has a higher claim amount than the rest of the 99% of creditors combined.
The top 0.1% have over 27% of the claims (only 23 claims).
These are likely large funds that have bought most of the claims.
Will they sell? 🤔
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Why are markets recovering?
Thank the Fed.
They released the latest dot plot yesterday and it shows they are still on track for 3 25bp rate cuts to a target of 4.6% by the end of the year.
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So...
The German government has never heard of the concept of a OTC block trade? Or a TWAP order?
They legit over here market dumping over $500m in Bitcoin?!
And in the process, they are reducing the value of their BTC stack as well.
Arschgeige
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On this day 2 years ago, I made the move to Dubai.
It's been a crazy ride, but still the best decision yet.
Yalla 🇦🇪 🤙
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