Nick
@nickthehabsfan
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Creator of NHLe Projection Cards
California, USA
Joined October 2020
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I am officially switching to Buy Me a Coffee!
Here is the link to my new page where you can read the first post on why I made the move and become a member. The main reasons are increased customizability and fewer platform fees!
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I'm doing some work on who had the best and worst drafts.
Here are the best picks of the draft based on value added above expected. Can you guess who's
#1
in the best draft rankings?
#NHLDraft2024
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Here are the best 8 drafts by teams in 2024.
If you were following my player lists over the past week you would've seen Minny with the biggest steal in Buium and Calgary frequently mentioned in the steals list.
Carolina continues their trend of strong drafting as well.
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The 2022 Redraft is next. As of today, it looks like the Montreal Canadiens are the winners of the draft. Getting 2 of the top 3 players in a redraft is very impressive.
There are some big risers here with guys like Hutson, Poitras, and Casey. For anyone wondering, Wright is
#11
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Steals of round 2:
Andrew Basha
#Flames
Cole Hutson
#ALLCAPS
Nikita Artamonov
#CauseChaos
Leon Muggli
#ALLCAPS
Winners of round 2 are the Washington Capitals.
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Which means that the Montreal Canadiens are
#1
! First off, my personal bias has no effect in this ranking, I was expecting NJ or BUF to finish 1st.
MTL is so high due to their depth and shear amount of young NHLers, which leads to a large boost in odds.
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#GoHabsGo
The Buffalo Sabres end up at
#2
in this year's U23 pipeline rankings. Buffalo has done an amazing job drafting over the past few years.
It's time for them to turn it into playoff success, something they've been close to, but haven't been able to achieve just yet.
#LetsGoBuffalo
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As promised, here is the updated Slaf card including his hat trick. He's now moved up to the 96th percentile of prospects in their D+2 seasons.
Not too shabby...
#GoHabsGo
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Slafkovsky's progression this year has been amazing to watch. His stock is now up to where it should be based on his draft position.
He's escaped the bust talk so now the question is how much higher can he go?
#GoHabsGo
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WOW, I love this deal! If Slafkovsky keeps developing how he is right now, this contract is going to be a steal very soon.
Stars are signing in Montreal long-term AND below market value, what a world. Says a lot about the city and organization of Montreal.
#GoHabsGo
The Canadiens have agreed to terms on an eight-year contract extension with forward Juraj Slafkovsky.
News release ↓
#GoHabsGo
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TOP 100 PROSPECT COUNTDOWN: The countdown starts with the honorable mentions.
The uncertainty (even with top 2024 draftees) leads to guys like Lindstrom and Sennecke missing out on the top 100. As we get higher up, you'll see older prospects get valued higher than the younger.
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A Habs prospects season review is coming soon but I just wanted to highlight Slafkovsky for now.
He started the year looking out of place again but since getting linemates who can do more than skate fast and lose the puck, he's been amazing. PPG season next year?
#GoHabsGo
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The 2021 Redraft is next. Johnston is the model's
#1
by far, a great pick and story for Dallas. Anaheim also did well with two players in the top 10.
This draft will be interesting for a long time due to the effect that COVID had on how many games prospects could get in.
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Lane Hutson had 3 points in his first NCAA game since the WJC.
Only about 3 more months until he is in a Habs jersey...
#GoHabsGo
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The 2024 Draft Board has been updated with a bunch of final draft rankings from various scouting outlets.
Still waiting on a few such as TSN, but I'd imagine these rankings are going to be very similar to mine on draft day...
#NHLDraft
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With Quinnipiac being eliminated today, Collin Graf can now sign with an NHL team.
Whoever ends up with him is getting one of the best NCAA players and a decent NHL prospect as well...
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Starting off, here are the worst drafts.
This is based on a sum of the value added for each pick that the team made. Anaheim is far behind everybody else, mainly due to the selection of Sennecke so early.
Top 8 tomorrow 👀...
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The Columbus Blue Jackets come in at
#4
! The rebuild needs to end soon in Columbus as their prospect pool is already strong enough.
New management, hopefully new coaching, and more development from the young guns should mean playoffs in Columbus soon...
#CBJ
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"Nick, you're tweeting about Lane Hutson too much"
I do not care. 4 points in tonight's game increased his NHLe/82 pace this year from 27 to 30 points. Crazy stuff.
#GoHabsGo
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Eklund has been one of the few bright spots on the Sharks this year. For him, this year has been huge as his stock has bounced back after trending in the wrong direction.
It'll be interesting to see his growth next season with a better Sharks team around him.
#SJSharks
Also William Eklund hit 40 points on the season! Hell yeah!
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This is the updated Lane Hutson card, the wait is finally over.
Seems like he will make his debut next week. I wonder if he tries the same things he does in the NCAA in the NHL right away.
#GoHabsGo
Lane Hutson is indeed joining the Montreal Canadiens
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The best comps for Lane Hutson?
1. Cale Makar
2. Adam Fox
3. Rob Blake
Not too shabby...
#GoHabsGo
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Lane Hutson has come a long way since being drafted and it's been amazing to watch.
He's now listed at 5'10" which is a fine NHL height (if that even exists) and we saw how he can produce in his 2 NHL games last spring. I am so excited to see how his rookie year goes...
The Canadiens just gave up an updated camp lineup: Slafkovsky is now 225 lbs while Lane Hutson is listed at 5-foot-10
#GoHabsGo
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Slafkovsky's been great this year and I'm looking forward to the growth we'll see next year.
#GoHabsGo
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Seeing everyone posting stories and talking about Gaudeau's career makes me feel like it's ok to post this, but please lmk if it isn't and I'll take it down.
Gaudreau's career was a truly inspiring one, overcoming the odds and people telling him he couldn't. Such a tragedy...
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As promised: here is Slafkovsky's card.
His stock keeps going up and up as well as every other graph on the card.
#GoHabsGo
Skater Projection Cards 3.1 are almost done...
What's New?
- Visually; the /10 rating has been replaced with percentile which is based on how good the player is compared to others in the same DY (ex. DY+3)
- Model; low end prospects are worse, high end prospects are much better
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I have finished the odds for different production tiers!
Let's do a request session and check out what it looks like on your favorite prospects, send in your requests below ⬇️...
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Lane Hutson & BU wrapped up their regular season over the weekend and now look to the postseason.
I'm sure all Habs fans are rooting for them to go all the way instead of losing early so Lane can join Montreal sooner...
#GoHabsGo
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Here's a teaser of the new 4.0 cards!
Don't obsess over the odds too much yet as those will change as the model continues to be built, but visually, this is what they will look like.
The next steps include returning more accurate comps and rethinking how odds are calculated.
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Now that the update is live and in effect, let's have some fun with it!
Up first is a 2023 re-draft! Going into the draft there was a clear top 4. Today, those 4 remain the top guys.
The BC boys take up the next 3 spots, insane that they were on the same NCAA team this season.
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There is a strong chance that Cagnoni becomes one of the biggest steals of the 2023 draft. He had a huge season this year and has been rewarded with an ELC.
He'll probably be back in the WHL next season but with a weak San Jose roster and a strong camp who knows?
#SJSharks
You wanted to know when the ELC was coming. It’s here NOW.
Welcome to the Sharks, Luca! 👏
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Meanwhile...
I hope Reinbacher does well and proves everyone wrong just like Slafkovsky did but I don't think passing on Michkov will ever be justified.
#GoHabsGo
#LetsGoFlyers
Be serious guys, Reinbacher has to adjust his game to NA ice rinks and is only beginning his journey there.
Don't get your hopes on him for the rest of the season too high, he won't play first pair right away. Let's calm down.
Not playing over Barron & Mailloux 😂
#GoHabsGo
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I've added 3 new rankings and changed how the potential fits section looks.
I think the card looks a lot cleaner. For Lindstrom, his top fits remain Columbus and Montreal, both at 4 out of 5 stars.
#NHLDraft
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There is a lot of hype around the Habs camp about Oliver Kapanen potentially making the NHL roster right away.
This might not be a surprise for some, like Kapanen's SHL coach, who doesn't expect to have him this season.
Do you think he'll make it and if so, who's he replacing?
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The Anaheim Ducks lead off the top 3 as they come in at
#3
! Their biggest need is another core d-man but overall, they are extremely strong.
Their top 4 forwards are great, the rest isn't as much which prohibits them from finishing any higher.
#FlyTogether
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Zeev Buium is ranked 3rd in my rankings and 4th by scouts. His stock rose tremendously due to his large part in Denver winning the national championship.
The model sees Utah as the best fit for him and I think that would be a great spot for both parties.
#NHLDraft
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Next up at
#8
are the San Jose Sharks. Considering they just started their rebuild, they are doing well for themselves.
It's too bad Celebrini isn't included just yet, if he was, the Sharks would easily be top 5.
#SJSharks
The Seattle Kraken are up next, coming in at
#9
. Considering Seattle has only had 3 drafts instead of 5 to get players eligible here, they have done very well for themselves.
They lack a true
#1
D, maybe they get one in this draft if a guy like Buium or Parekh falls?
#SeaKraken
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Here is Demidov's card with his updated odds. Despite the small sample size of 7 KHL games, the model sees that he's both playing and producing at a high level this year and rewards it.
For reference, Michkov's DY+1 star odds were 62%... Just saying...
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A prospect like Michkov is rarely available at the 7th pick and the Flyers made sure to capitalize.
Everyone that passed on him except for maybe 2-3 teams should be reconsidering their selections.
#LetsGoFlyers
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Joshua Roy is 2nd among rookie scoring in the AHL and is quickly becoming one of the Habs' best prospects.
He should get some NHL games later in the year if he keeps this pace up.
#GoHabsGo
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He's back!...
#GoHabsGo
Looking like Alex Newhook returns to the Canadiens' lineup tomorrow.
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Adding Fantilli and Brindley to an already elite prospect pool just isn't fair...
Brindley put up similar production to Artemi Panarin, if he can become even a fraction of that it's over for the league.
#CBJ
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2024 Draftees and all undrafted players with NHL games are now available!
The odds may seem low but if you check out this thread you'll see that Demidov is still one of the best players from this draft class... ⬇️
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4.0 is almost done! The process of getting comps and calculating odds has been massively improved.
The next steps include adjusting some league NHLe values and then calibrating the model to see if/how the weights need to be adjusted with the increased amount of comps.
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Hutson maintaining his freshman year production was huge for his odds. He now projects as a likely star defenseman.
His rookie season will be very entertaining to watch for all of us Habs fans.
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It's time for some requests!
Now that it's December, most players have a large enough sample size for this season to see interesting changes.
This is also a way to see how the new NHLe values affect the cards compared to the past.
Send them in!
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The 5 teams left are Anaheim, Buffalo, Columbus, Montreal, and New Jersey 👀
Predictions?
#FlyTogether
#LetsGoBuffalo
#CBJ
#GoHabsGo
#NJDevils
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Hutson is one of the best defenseman prospects in the game right now, yet there will always be doubters.
I made some minor updates to how many comps are selected if the player has unique production, like Hutson, which makes him look even better.
#GoHabsGo
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Button has Buium ranked 4th overall and as the best defenseman in the class. There are even some rumors now that Buium might go as early as 5 to Montreal.
My model agrees, seeing Buium as the best D-man in this class. How crazy will he produce next year?
#NHLDraft
Forwards Tij Iginla and Cole Eiserman surge up the board, while there's a new No. 1 blueliner in our final Craig's List of the season by
@CraigJButton
....
Check out his final 96-player ranking here:
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The final request for today is Ivan Demidov. His production is still insane to me, he did not belong in the MHL this past season.
I hope there's a Habs logo in the top left once the summer passes despite however unlikely it is he falls to 5th overall.
#NHLDraft
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Here are the worst picks of the draft.
Was Levshunov a reach? No, he wasn't but the model sees the difference between him and Demidov and thus calls it a bad pick.
Same thing with Cayden Lindstrom and Columbus. The rest make sense with the consensus.
#NHLDraft2024
I'm doing some work on who had the best and worst drafts.
Here are the best picks of the draft based on value added above expected. Can you guess who's
#1
in the best draft rankings?
#NHLDraft2024
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The final request today is made by me: Juraj Slafkovsky.
Slaf has played great recently and the points have finally started to come. It's great to see him continuously improve and gain confidence.
#GoHabsGo
It's time for a request session! Send in a player whose card you want to see down below!
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Here is the expanded version of this...
Value +/- is a measure that looks at where a player was ranked in my model vs where they were drafted. After you account for the value of the picks in that range you get value +/- for each player!
Team rankings coming next 👀
#NHLDraft
I'm doing some work on who had the best and worst drafts.
Here are the best picks of the draft based on value added above expected. Can you guess who's
#1
in the best draft rankings?
#NHLDraft2024
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I feel like the intended audience of this tweet will just ignore it...
#GoHabsGo
@nickthehabsfan
Can you show Florian Xhekaj to calm down those who claim he'll be a great top 9 winger lol
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TOP 50: The series continues with
#31
-40! The most notable guys here are Wright, Hage, and Cristall.
Wright hasn't been able to find his footing just yet but the model still sees him as a likely impact forward. Hage comes in at
#36
which makes getting him at 21oa look great...
TOP 50 RANKINGS: Time for
#41
-50 which sees guys like Musty, Dickinson, Eiserman, and McGroarty.
These players all project as likely impact players, essentially top 6/top 4 players. Eiserman will be an interesting player to follow for a while due to how his stock fell in his DY.
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Working on a little something for the 2024 Draft Profiles...
I will use this instead of the player's card for the profile posts since I believe it gives way more info that pertains to the draft this June.
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#GoHabsGo
prospect Bogdan Konyushkov has had a really great start to his KHL season.
Konyushkov had a good year last year and has only built on it thus far. The only unfortunate news is we won't be seeing him in North America until at least the 26-27 season when he'll be 24.
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Clarke doesn't have very many comps but the ones he does have are really good.
He's going to be a star for the Kings going forward and is one of the best defenseman prospects in the NHL right now.
#GoKingsGo
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Columbus has a great prospect on their hands in Mateychuk, who is having an amazing year right now.
#CBJ
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Demidov was the best forward available behind Celebrini in the eyes of the model. Getting him at 5 is a steal.
I expect this year to have some drama with KHL playing time and a possible NHL/AHL loan...
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TOP 50: Up next in our top 50 prospects are guys ranked
#21
-30!
This section features some big names like Reinbacher and Stankoven but also some surprises in Nystrom and Ilyin.
Only the top 20 remain, what's your prediction for the best 5?
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Wow. There goes the 3 year wait that so many were worried about. Michkov coming over is huge. The Flyers just gained a top 6 forward (maybe even an all-star) for next season.
Next year's Calder race between Michkov, Celebrini, Stankoven, etc. will be crazy.
#LetsGoFlyers
I'm told that it looks like Matvei Michkov is leaving SKA and will be joining the Philadelphia Flyers.
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Engstrom continues to be really great in the SHL and is one of the Habs' better D prospects.
The Habs will have a logjam on the blueline very soon.
#GoHabsGo
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TOP 50: And here it is,
#1
-10. The model loved the 2024 draft, the top 3 D-men all put up DY seasons that were among the best of all time.
Celebrini finishes 1st, nobody's surprised. He's followed by forwards Michkov and Demidov. Demidov will grow now that he's out of the MHL.
TOP 50: Here is the penultimate post in my top 50 prospect rankings!
Pretty cool to see teammates Smith and Leonard back to back. The Ducks have 3 guys here, part of their stacked prospect pool.
The top of this list also features two likely star d-men in Nikishin and Clarke.
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I'm obviously rooting for Xhekaj but if you're expecting him to become an impact player soon, you'll be disappointed.
Having both Xhekaj brothers in the organization is very fun though...
#GoHabsGo
The Canadiens have agreed to terms on a three-year, entry-level contract (2024-25 to 2026-27) with forward Florian Xhekaj.
News release ↓
#GoHabsGo
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So um, Bedard is now in the 100th percentile after his 5-point night.
Lucky, lucky Blackhawks...
#Blackhawks
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TOP 50 RANKINGS: Now that all updates are finished, the prospect rankings are back!
Starting with our honorable mentions, there are notable names here like Brindley, Iginla, Lysell, and Sennecke.
Kiviharju being here just shows how much of a steal he was for Minny this summer.
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Shane Wright's NHL stint has gone really well as he's put up 5 points in 4 games.
It's a small sample size of NHL games this year for Wright but if he can keep this pace going forward and through next year, it'll be great news for the Kraken.
#SeaKraken
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TOP 50 RANKINGS: Time for
#41
-50 which sees guys like Musty, Dickinson, Eiserman, and McGroarty.
These players all project as likely impact players, essentially top 6/top 4 players. Eiserman will be an interesting player to follow for a while due to how his stock fell in his DY.
TOP 50 RANKINGS: Now that all updates are finished, the prospect rankings are back!
Starting with our honorable mentions, there are notable names here like Brindley, Iginla, Lysell, and Sennecke.
Kiviharju being here just shows how much of a steal he was for Minny this summer.
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With guys like Celebrini, Smith, Gauthier, and Hutson all signing ELCs and leaving the NCAA there isn't a clear Hobey Baker favorite for next season.
Who do you think it could be? If Zeev Buium can continue to progress and BC gets worse with their NHL departures he's my pick...
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In one trade Kent Hughes…
1) acquired a star goal scorer, huge need
2) took advantage of cap space to acquire pick compensation
3) cleared the logjam on defense to make room for guys like Hutson, Mailloux, and more
Wow, amazing move
The Canadiens have traded defenseman Jordan Harris to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for forward Patrik Laine and a second-round pick in 2026
News release ↓
#GoHabsGo
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More draft rankings are being added to the draft board and there have been some big changes since the last update.
Zayne Parekh has swapped spots with Berkly Catton, now taking 4th. We're now down to about a week away from the draft...
#NHLDraft
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Where would you rank this draft's top defensemen (Levshunov, Parekh, Buium) among these defensemen in their draft seasons and/or today?
- David Reinbacher
- Dmitri Simashev
- Simon Nemec
- David Jiricek
- Owen Power
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It’s time… 👀
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Calgary picked up Brzustewicz in the Lindholm deal and I honestly think he might become the best piece they got.
If Brz can turn into a top 4 defenseman who plays PP1 time, it'll go a long way for Calgary's "rebuild"
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Reinbacher is having a rough year to say the least right now. The model still likes him due to his previous seasons, but at some point, he's going to have to get better.
#GoHabsGo
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All of this is great news for Demidov to be selected higher. It increasingly seems like there isn't much "risk" in picking him.
Whoever does decide to "risk" it and select him will be getting one of the best prospects in the NHL and a franchise cornerstone.
#NHLDraft
To recap Demidov’s in-person meetings in Florida,
•Listed as 5’10” but is 6’1” in-person
•Speaks English well
•No interest in resigning in Russia
•Confident he’ll be signed in the NHL by the end of KHL playoffs
•He’ll be on SKA’s KHL roster next season.
#Blackhawks
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Calgary was able to select Misa 150th overall, a steal in the eyes of the model.
Misa projects as a possible impact forward, great value in the 5TH ROUND!
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Let's look at tonight's trade and see who won according to my model!
#FlyTogether
receive:
Cutter Gauthier: 5.4/10
Gauthier will be an NHLer but the model thinks it is more likely in a 2nd line role than a top-line guy.
🧵 1/3...
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4.0 is finished!
I am still trying to come up with a percentile/draft stock metric that makes sense but in terms of odds, the model is complete!
If you have any ideas for something to replace percentile, feel free to reach out, no limit on creativity.
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This one's not going to go over well... The Chicago Blackhawks are next at
#13
.
The model sees the Hawks pool as very good depth, some good impact defenseman, and the best prospect in the world. CHI lacks the quantity that would lead to them ranking higher up.
#Blackhawks
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