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Trading High Potential Stocks Using Stage Analysis Premium Newsletter:
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The holy grail of trading isn't an indicator or method but simply finding ways to tilt odds in your favor.
Stan Weinstein's Forest To The Trees Approach is a repeatable method of finding good times to buy stocks with better odds of success.
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The best time to short stocks using Stage Analysis is when the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 above the 50dma is overbought and not when it is oversold
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Leading stocks in leading sectors completing Stage 2 breakouts. That's the sign of a healthy market I'm looking for.
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This pattern is the way I make money in the markets. When it isn't there I simply wait for it to show up again.
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$QQQ Divergence in new highs vs. new lows similar to what we've seen setup previous bear market rallies
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If you traded in 2009, once the bottom was in stocks started breaking out on huge volume. If you were paying attention it was hard not to miss. That's what a bottom looks like, not when you have to scan 100s of charts to find 1 or 2 candidates.
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I've seen hot shot fund managers come and go, strategies come and go, gurus come and go, trading tv shows come and go. The one thing that stands the test of time is Stage Analysis.
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These two setups are my bread and butter. When the market is healthy I'm identifying the best candidates based on Stan Weinstein's criteria for a high quality Stage 2 breakout
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Amazing I just noticed this but Stan Weinstein's short setup includes a failed move higher to fast move lower situation 👇
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$QQQ $SPY Sentiment seems to be incredibly bearish but new lows are declining just like they did before the March rally.
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$SPY $QQQ Stage 3 is the most misinterpreted and abused stage in Stage Analysis. Most people that I’ve seen are quick to put something in Stage 4 if it moves below the MA. We won’t be in Stage 4 until the MA turns lower and you have a retest and failure at the MA.
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Here's how the 2008 bear market unfolded:
1) In late 2007 to July 2008 the market became bifurcated with commodities taking over leadership making climax runs in Stage 2. Meanwhile $XHB $XLF homebuilders and financials had already topped and were in Stage 4 downtrends
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So many losses could have been prevented by just following this blueprint 👇
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If there's a holy grail of trading this is the closest thing
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In Stage 1 the news is bad, but stocks are no longer going down.
In Stage 3 the news is good, but stocks are no longer going up.
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$SPY Even in bear markets like 2008 the best times to short are when the % of stocks above the 50dma is high after a countertrend rally.
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I can’t remember anyone ever saying I made my fortune trading bear market rallies
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$SPY $QQQ in a bear market this is currently the worst time to buy stocks with the market short term overbought. Combined with lack of high quality Stage 2 breakouts the bulls have more to prove next week
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$SPY has now worked off the overbought condition and is in Stage 1
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The green circle is the only buy point in Stage Analysis
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Stocks that enter Stage 2 have an "ideal buy point" that are shown in the charts below. If you catch one of these buy points, but turn around and sell too soon you can miss a big move. Sometimes it takes weeks to really get going.
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Horizontal trendline breakouts are the most bullish because of resistance. If you only look for this type of breakout you are increasing odds of success.
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The end of the 2000-2003 bear market was almost a year of basing in the S&P 500. Most stocks still didn't start working until the end of that basing process. So bottom line is you have to patiently wait for the market tailwind.
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Chart 1-10 has less chance of turning into a big rally because of resistance. You want the breakouts that look like Chart 1-11.
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During a bear market people will bring out sentiment, P/E ratios, the Fed, value, and many other reasons for why we could be close to a bottom.
None of those are as good as just waiting for the bottom to show up and form a base, and then start a new uptrend.
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I trade the same setup over and over again across different markets. If I was to only apply this setup to the same market I'd be losing opportunities in other markets. So the more markets I'm willing to trade, the more opportunities to trade this setup (Stage 2 breakouts).
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$AG $GATO $HL $CDE Many of these silver stocks are showing 3-4 days of above average volume recently. I'd be surprised if we don't get the breakout finally soon here in silver. $SLV
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Many sectors in the market look like the red circles shown below where they are trying to push out of Stage 1 into Stage 2, but their Stage 1 bases are not very long, in fact they are more of a V-bounce variety. The V-bounce into resistance usually fails unless there is
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Getting "alerted" of a Stage 2 breakout isn't that necessary. The pullback buy to point B is actually the best buy and typically happens 1-5 weeks after the breakout.
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The ideal time to buy a stock is either on the Stage 2 breakout (A) or on the first major pullback (B). Sometimes the first major pullback doesn't occur until weeks 4-8 of the Stage 2 breakout, or later in the move than people expect.
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How do you know when a bear market is over? When you start seeing these patterns in the charts 👇
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Overall market weakness is providing pullback entries (point B) in many leaders $ENPH $ARRY $CELH $FSLR
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75% of the Nasdaq is in Stage 3 or Stage 4, so a heavy majority of tech stocks have been in all 4 stages during the 2020-2022 time period. If this is your first time through these stages take the time to learn from mistakes and become a better trader. Because they will repeat.
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Don't buy stocks that have poor volume characteristics on a breakout
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If you limit your buying to the green circle you are setting yourself up for the biggest upside while protecting major downside.
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5 reasons to not buy anything in Stage 4:
1. Can go to zero
2. Can go down a lot more
3. Even if it is near bottom, can take years to base in Stage 1
4. Opportunity cost: other things in Stage 2 that you can’t allocate that capital to
5. The best stocks to buy aren’t in Stage 4
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If you do most of your buying from the initial Stage 2 breakout or the first continuation breakout you’re usually buying early in the uptrend. The problem is the average investor is buying well past these ideal entry points.
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Stage 3 - Positive sentiment, but price isn't making new highs
Stage 1 - Negative sentiment, but price isn't making new lows
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A lot of tech stocks will look like the first diagram if they try and rally from here. That's a less ideal setup because of overhead resistance. You want base breakouts with minimal or no immediate overhead resistance (the second diagram). Don't make sacrifices.
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$CCJ biggest upside volume in the history of this leading
#uranium
stock last week. Note the change in volume as uranium has switched from a long term bear market to a bull market. The volume increase is a sign of institutions taking positions.
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These two setups are my bread and butter. When the market is healthy I'm identifying the best Stage 2 breakouts using Stan Weinstein's criteria for a high quality Stage 2 breakout.
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The big winners in 2020 were IPOs that broke out of Stage 1 bases
The big winners in 2021 were alt
#crypto
that broke out of Stage 1 bases
The big winners in 2022 were $XLE oil and gas stocks that broke out of Stage 1 bases
Notice a pattern?
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Unless you were trading during 2008 or 2000-2002 you don't have the experience of dealing with a longer term bear market. I remember in 2008 I shutdown my trading for multiple months until conditions improved in 2009 and breakouts started happening again.
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$SLV Over 12 million shares volume so far pre-market and it's not even 8am ET yet. I don't think I've ever seen this type of pre-market volume before. $GLD $PPLT $PALL
#silversqueeze
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2022: The year everyone who missed 2008 learned about Stage 4
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Here's a good tip heading into 2024. If you're wondering when not to trade just check Mark Minervini's twitter and see what he's doing. If he's posting videos shooting guns or driving cars don't trade. Happy New Year!
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$SPY Stan Weinstein says weak breadth but index strength is actually a bottoming sign:
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The best stocks trend after their breakout so identifying the breakout is merely the entry point to the trend. The attributes of a high quality Stage 2 breakout stack the odds of finding big winning stocks.
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For newer traders its very critical to understand that we're not just interested in buying stocks that are down. The stock needs to form a base after the decline. Too many people want to just buy into a decline. Stage Analysis shows us the correct buy point (green circle)
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Notice in this diagram how the stock goes from a double bottom in Stage 1 to a Stage 2 breakout (point A) in a short period of time. This is why you keep doing your homework because all of a sudden the breakouts will start happening.
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Stage 1 is characterized by both failed breakouts and breakdowns until one that sticks occurs. A lot of stocks look like this currently.
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Jesse Livermore used to take vacations after big runs in the markets and wait for better conditions to setup.
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These two setups are the best time to buy stocks in Stage Analysis. If you get a position at the "ideal buy point", the objective is to hold and wait patiently while the Stage 2 uptrend plays out to maximize profits.
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2022 has created a huge opportunity in the stock market.
1. At the end of a Stage 4 bear market (red circle) opportunity is created
2. At the start of a Stage 2 uptrend (green circle) opportunity can be captured. In the meantime (Stage 1) we simply wait.
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$SPY remember when they said it wouldn’t get overbought again at the lows when it was oversold?
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Three powerful new Stage 2 bull markets have recently started:
$URA ☢️
$GLD $SLV 🏅🥈
$OIH 🛢
Ride the trend until it ends.
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Amazing how breakouts start working when a correction ends, just like Stan said
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Inflation and recessions aren't trading signals. Stage 2 breakouts and Stage 4 breakdowns are trading signals. Ignore noise, follow price.
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$QQQ Divergence in net new lows is showing up again which showed up in March before the countertrend rally
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5 ways I use the Stage Analysis Screener 🧵👇
1. Determine the trend of the major indices $SPY $QQQ $DIA. If the major trend of the market is against you probability of success is diminished
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If you're a "full time trader" you should really have at least 3 or 4 major hobbies that can take up your time while the market is in correction. If the market is your hobby you're going to get into trouble.
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Many traders are going to ride $NVDA all the way down during its next Stage 4 downtrend believing the fundamentals all the way down
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This is page 73 in the book and most of the tech stocks rallying today fall under this description. These stocks can experience big fluctuations while they try and carve out Stage 1 bases, but most won't be able to sustain a Stage 2 advance until they base for a while.
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If you never buy a stock below its 30-week EMA then you are never buying a stock in a downtrend. That's a great first start to catching winning stocks and a fundamental of Stage Analysis.
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More than likely this is the best time in 2 years to buy stocks and the heavy majority feels the exact opposite right now they want no stocks and more cash
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It's very seductive to want to buy into a stock that has been destroyed as a "deal" but if you're using Stage Analysis properly there's only one buy point and that's the Stage 2 breakout.
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There's 2 ways to buy a Stage 2 breakout, on the week of the breakout (A) and on the first pullback after the breakout week (B). If you missed the breakout week the pullback gives you a second chance.
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In 2008 I was falsely convinced by people claiming the dollar would be destroyed and gold would skyrocket due to inflation. Instead the exact opposite happened. Along the same timeframe I read Stan Weinstein's book and decided that I'd never listen to anyone...
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In growth/tech stock terms most stocks are still in the red ❌ area late in Stage 4/early Stage 1. You only want to be buying Stage 2 breakouts (green circle). Gold stocks are a good example right now $GLD.
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There's a ton of IPOs from 2020-2021 that are setup for Stage 2 breakout again after a Stage 4 downtrend and Stage 1 base forming.
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You never want to become a fanboy of a stock or a theme in the stock market because they all do this pattern.
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Mark Minervini outlined his strategy for taking profits faster in 2021 (due to the market being more hostile) in his book in 2016. I didn’t realize this until re-reading it. Which proves again how valuable re-reading the best books can be (like Stan Weinstein’s book)
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Remember at the Stage 2 investor breakout there's few believers. This is a lone wolf trade that is the ideal buy point.
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Stan Weinstein is still firing on all cylinders at his age.
Makes you wonder why so many people want to retire early and do nothing.
Having something you like to do everyday increases your energy and leads to longevity and youthfulness.
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If you're tired of listening to the endless opinions on the market that turn out to be dead wrong, I'd recommend starting with Stage Analysis. It opened my eyes to a simple way of thinking almost 15 years ago now and I haven't looked back.
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Stan Weinstein started out his recent interview by saying this is a tough market. He's seen a lot of markets, so not a statement to be taken lightly.
The best way to handle tough markets is trade less or not at all, and wait for a big correction to get back in.
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I track 2 lists of Stage 2 breakouts on a weekly basis. The first list is all stocks that I believe have enough criteria for a Stage 2 breakout that week. The second list is what I consider the "cream of the crop" breakouts for the week. That list is what I trade off of.
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The green circle is where the magic can happen in the stock market. If you can get good green circle entries (Stage 2 breakouts) then you just need patience because some of them will grow into big winners.
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Trading is a unique endeavor where “working harder” can be extremely counterproductive.
Instead it’s better to focus on odds of success, which vary with market conditions.
Limiting participation to when the odds are high is better than “working harder”.
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2 signs the market is healthy:
1) Proliferation of Stage 2 breakouts across multiple sectors
2) The breakouts don't fail and keep working
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Both Stage 2 breakouts and Stage 4 breakdowns the past couple weeks haven't been doing well. The market is simply chop until we get a leading sector. And that also means this rally will just be a bear rally in another bear market downleg.
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Highest put/call all year, most negative sentiment, lowest Nasdaq 100 breadth. Bears need a crash scenario to keep this going (which is always possible)
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$SLV Silver has a cup and handle pattern with volume drying up the last 2 weeks in the handle. Natural gas stocks just broke out big time from a similar pattern last week, will
#silver
be next? $GLD $GDX
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Whenever you are not in sync with the market re-read page 75 of Stan Weinstein's book
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The human brain tends to become infected with greed at the end of a big Stage 2 run (see
#cryptocurrency
for current example) thus causing people to lose money after a bull market because they expect it to go on forever. Understanding Stage Analysis can help you overcome this
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$SPY the best time to make long term investments in the S&P 500 is when breadth is oversold
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$BABA Many of these Chinese stocks have:
1. Thunder volume in March putting in the change of trend into Stage 1
2. No lower low in May cementing the Stage 1 base
3. Big volume this week on a Stage 2 breakout attempt
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Stage 1: Headlines are negative but stocks are not moving lower
Stage 3: Headlines are positive but stocks are not moving higher
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