Michael McKee
@mckonomy
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International Economics & Politics for Bloomberg TV/Radio *Formerly verified and still the same person* same ID for Threads
38,000 feet above somewhere
Joined March 2011
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Wrap your head around this:
Jobless claims last 3 weeks: 16,780,000
+ 5,500,000 forecast today would equal 22,280,000
Total jobs created since Great Recession: 22,088,000
In one month, 10 years of job creation wiped out...
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I’ve covered G7 meetings since 1995. I’ve never seen a country, let alone a G7 member, singled out like this:
—thread—
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I can only thank God for the 22 additional years I've had (so far) and say a prayer for those who did not get those years, and their families.
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It was an astounding and depressing weekend. Trump’s assertion the US is more respected than ever around the world is 180 degrees from the truth. I was, frankly, shocked.
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There is great anger and frustration around the globe that the world’s largest economy would forfeit its leadership for policies that don’t make economic sense, and that the rest of the G7 don’t understand.
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“I think there was a comment out there that this was the G6+1. It was not. It was the G7...” Mnuchin said. He’s spinning. The US is more isolated than I have ever seen it in the more than two decades I have been doing this.
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It’s 7pm and the whole of NYC is out cheering and applauding the health care workers on the front lines. 5 nights now. Brings chills....
#coronavirus
#doctorsday2020
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You're not gonna like this post,
#Fed
pundits.
I've seen a lot of arguments the Fed is misleading investors, doing a terrible job of communicating, and that
@NewYorkFed
President Williams contradicted
@federalreserve
Chair Jay Powell on rate cuts.
You're wrong.
1/7
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In fact, they do. I spoke to the finance ministers from the rest of the G7, many of the central bankers, the EC and Eurogroup representatives, and senior officials from the IMF. Unanimous that the US is mistaken and will pay a big price.
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“It has been a tense and tough G-7. I would say it has been far more a G-6 plus one than a G-7,” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told me.
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*No Red Wave; Democrats May Hold The Senate
*Russia Says It's Withdrawing From Kherson
*CPI Inflation Slows More Than Forecast
Joe Biden's Wonderful, Excellent, Good, Very Good Week
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“This is a very severe problem for relations between the European Union and the United States,” German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz told me.
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The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.
-Edmund Burke
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“We are very concerned. The economic effects of trade wars are very negative for all,” Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco told me.
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Lots of talk about Xi Jinping calming markets. Reality: investors are hearing what they want to hear. We're months away from the possible imposition of tariffs. We're years away from implementation of Xi's promised reforms. THREAD
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I asked Secretary Mnuchin his reaction. He told me the US, because of tax cuts, still leads the global economy. But he acknowledged the rest of the G7 may disagree.
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Rounding up the usual suspects...
(Yes, he likes the hat)
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US Recession Indicator: you may have seen this before. Now expanded with additional data raising the possibility of contraction ahead:
#economy
#WorldSeries2022
#Phillies
#Astros
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Canada’s proposed tariff list includes:
Maple syrup
Beer kegs
Whiskies
Barbecue grills
(Trade) wars are hell
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You can criticize policy. But listen to what they actually say, not what you think you heard.
*Except for when the Chair wants to send markets a message through the WSJ Fed reporter. 7/7
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How to think about today's
#jobs
report: 4.8 million people went back to work. These are not jobs created, these are jobs restored.
But (a big "but") 14.6 million people did not go back to work in June. And now we are seeing states shut down parts of their economies again. 1/2
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This is fascinating: total retail sales through July have recovered and are back on trend. Will that continue without pandemic assistance to the unemployed?
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Wait! Jobless claims are a head fake. When NY schools go on break, school workers can file for benefits. Guess what happened last week? NY claims rose by 16,000 over the prior week. A nice "Fed tightening is starting to work" narrative unravels...
(h/t Stephen Stanley, Santander)
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Horses don't care about the S&P 500, the yield curve, or bitcoin.
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China can’t match Trump’s new threat to raise tariffs to $150 Bln. Total US goods exports to China were only $130 Bln last year. China would have to put a tariff on everything it buys from the US.
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*CHINA TO IMMEDIATELY TAKE MEASURES OF SAME SCALE AGAINST U.S.
*CHINA SAYS PREVIOUS ECONOMIC, TRADE ACHIEVEMENTS LOSE EFFECT
*CHINA SAYS DOESN'T WANT TRADE WAR, BUT WILL HAVE TO RETALIATE
*CHINA TO IMEPLEMENT MEASURES OF SIMILAR SIZE AGAINST U.S.
USTR Lighthizer on today's tariff announcement: "Our hope is that it doesn't lead to a rash reaction from China. I'm hoping that they view this as an opportunity to move to the next level. We hope this leads to further negotiations and to China changing its policies."
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Powell said rate cuts were not a focus of discussion. Williams said that rate cuts were not a focus of discussion. They both characterized the meeting the exact same way.
3/7
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Mar-a-Lago last night.
Half of Puerto Rico is still without power.
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President George W. Bush imposed "temporary" tariffs of 8%-20% on steel imports in 2002. By the time he ended them, one study showed the US economy had lost 200,000 jobs.
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Bottom line: the Fed has shifted to a peak rate regime. That raises the question of rate cuts. They had to make forecasts and some said 3 in 2024, up from 2 in September. They presented those forecasts. That was the sum of the discussion, say BOTH Powell and Williams. 6/7
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There's no contradiction there. Same explanation.
Additional points: Fed officials aren't sent out to "mop up" comments from the Chair. The interviews are scheduled well in advance*. And for Powell & other FOMC members, their comments are a function of what they are asked. 5/7
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What I read into Powell's answer to me: barring a surprise, we're done. But we can't say that, so we leave another move on the table.
@federalreserve
#Fed
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His money, his nomination: Trump Has $340 Million of Debt Linked to Powell's Rate Decisions
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45 years ago today, Richard Nixon took the US off the gold standard, permanently changing the global economy.
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The report means "the Fed is going to have to break the economy to bring down inflation,"
@elerianm
tells
@FerroTV
on
@BloombergTV
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THREAD:
For traders excited by the continuing claims decline, a more pessimistic take:
1) Don't forget Pandemic Assistance for gig workers not normally eligible for benefits. Add them to regular initial claims and 3,107,574 people filed last week; 1/5
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Said the man who just publicly admitted lying about the trade deficit figures to PM Trudeau.
Said the man whose own Council of Economic Advisers says we have a trade surplus with Canada.
We do have a Trade Deficit with Canada, as we do with almost all countries (some of them massive). P.M. Justin Trudeau of Canada, a very good guy, doesn’t like saying that Canada has a Surplus vs. the U.S.(negotiating), but they do...they almost all do...and that’s how I know!
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Why do reporters keep asking Trump admin officials whether they can pass a tax bill by the end of the year, instead of "what's in it?"
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*SVB BANK FAILS AS FDIC TAKES OVER, APPOINTS RECEIVER
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China does not pay tariffs to the US. We have not collected billions of dollars from China. We have collected billions of dollars from Americans, who pay tariffs on Chinese imports. Then we take the money from those Americans and give it to farmers.
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Traders and analysts are reacting to what they thought they heard. But they did not listen. 2/7
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TOMORROW'S Washington schedule:
Early AM - time is running out stories
Noon - things are looking bad stories
2 PM - Wall St gets the flu
4pm - Hill reporters call spouses to say they expect to work all weekend
6pm - Deal announced; Biden talks on South Lawn heading to Camp David
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The game's not over, but Team Transitory with a big win in this set:
*DEC. ISM FACTORY PRICES-PAID INDEX FALLS TO 68.2 FROM 82.4
#Fed
#FederalReserve
#inflation
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The bottom line question: how many of the 4.8 million who went back to work in early June will still be on payrolls in early July? 2/end
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This is kind of IMPORTANT: the
@federalreserve
is NOT holding an emergency meeting tomorrow. The Board (not the regional bank presidents) is holding a meeting (that was announced Friday) to discuss any recommendations from regional bank boards for raising the discount rate 1/2
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But did rate cuts come up? Yes, both said. But both said only when some individual members of the Open Market Committee presented their SEP forecasts and mentioned the topic. 4/7
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Twenty years and the sadness doesn’t diminish
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Why economics is better than politics today:
1) Nobody is saying the payrolls numbers are fraudulent
2) Nobody is going to sue
3) BLS will do a recount next month automatically
4) Economists can go home tonight and not work tomorrow
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Ironic humor from
@ClevelandFed
President Loretta Mester, who has reached the Fed's mandatory retirement age of 65: ""I'm too young to be president (of the US) but too old to be president of the Cleveland Fed."
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Watch as a TV economist is gobsmacked by data live 😳
The unemployment rate falls as the U.S. adds 2.5 million jobs in May.
@mckonomy
breaks down the numbers in the surprise report ➡️
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How to think about what
@federalreserve
Chair Powell is saying: strong economy, sticky inflation mean it will take more time for policy to work. What he doesn't do is say how long that will be. So it sounds new, but really isn't. They don't know what they are going to do. Or when
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Nobody stopped saying Merry Christmas...ever.
People are proud to be saying Merry Christmas again. I am proud to have led the charge against the assault of our cherished and beautiful phrase. MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!
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Attn
#Fed
pundits and social media analysts: the
@federalreserve
doesn't have a "plan" for rate cuts (and the Dot Plot is not a plan). 1/5
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Mexico’s Chief Nafta negotiator, Ildefonso Guajardo, tells me on
@BloombergTV
Mexico hasn’t decided whether if it would proceed with a bilateral agreement if Canada doesn’t sign on. Mexico wants trilateral agreement.
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You — you — could do something about it, Senator
Just spoke to Broward School Superintendent. Today is that terrible day you pray never comes.
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@burgessev
For every dollar California and Illinois send to Washington, they get $1 back. For every dollar New York sends to Washington, it gets 90c back. For every dollar Florida sends to Washington, it gets $1.12 back.
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California: $3 trillion economy. New York: $1.8 trillion economy. One quarter of US GDP has just all but evaporated.
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Pro tip: remember in reading the breakdown of the Biden Build Back Better plan that the administration is talking about spending $3 trillion over 10 years. A lot of money but not the same as shoveling $1.9 trillion out the door in 2021/22.
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The pandemic widens inequality:
The US unemployment rate is 10.2%. If you have a college degree, however, it's 6.7%. If you have a high school degree, it's 10.8%. If you dropped out of high school, it's 15.4% 1/2
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Lost in the tax debate: bond yields aren't rising -- investors don't think the tax plan will lift growth and inflation.
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Peter Navarro apologizes to Justin Trudeau.
(Is Trump still President?)
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Tracking the US economy in real time:
@NewYorkFed
puts together a new index combining high frequency data series.
It's ugly, as you'd expect. On your Bloomberg: {FRNYWEI7 <Index> GP <GO>}
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Earthquake; political upheaval; plane crash; two ongoing wars. Man, it's been a long year so far...
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"One would be hard pressed to think of a time when quarterly profits ought to matter less." Brilliant from
@opinion_joe
via
@bopinion
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You know nothing happened overnight when the first graph of every story includes "could."
A government shutdown could...
The UAW strike could...
High oil prices could...
7% Interest rates (???) could...
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Powell says there's always a possibility of a recession in the next year. But "there's no reason to think the economy is in a recession or at the edge of one."
@federalreserve
#Fed
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If Navarro’s desire to repatriate US supply chains is administration policy, a trade war is inevitable.
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ADP (-2,760,00 jobs) is a major surprise. Forecast was for -9,000,000. Don't take that as a sign Friday's NFP number will necessarily be better than forecast -8,000,000. There are a number of methodological differences in the surveys. This one is huge, however: 1/3
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After close thought: every single (non-White House) economist would preface analysis of any economic data with “never draw a conclusion on one report, one report doesn’t make a trend.” Equity traders, however, seem to be saying “one report is all I need. V-shaped recovery it is.”
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And to those arguing here about how to protect your portfolio from "the ravages of inflation," as one tweet had it: Consumer price inflation is 5.8% year to date. The S&P 500 is up 23.8% year to date.
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The
#Fed
already has a losing secondary market trade: it bought about $3 million in Waste Management Inc. bonds due 2024 at around 105 cents on the dollar, but they’ll be redeemed at 101 cents today. It's a roughly $120,000 loss in principal on the June 23 debt purchase.
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2) If that many people are still filing 10 weeks into the pandemic, it probably means companies are starting to give up and close permanently. Consequences to come; 2/5
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After 20 years and many conventions, I gave up covering politics for economics in 1997. I've not missed it. But I admit a twinge of jealousy for today's DC crowd, which may reach the political reporter's holy grail: an open convention. Last one was in 1952.
#Biden
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BLS notes misclassifications in the Household Survey again this month. If properly classified as "temporarily laid off" the unemployment rate would be over 19%.
19%
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5) There are data anomalies we can't necessarily reconcile right now. Georgia was the first state to aggressively reopen. Yet it recorded 164,350 new claims last week, 3rd highest among states. Florida, right behind Georgia, had 173,731 new claims, 2nd highest among states. END
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Re: Biden. I've been doing this a long time, and I can't tell you the right thing to do, or what will happen. But as you read all the stories about it, remember the truth of the old saying: those who talk, don't know. Those who know, don't talk.
#POTUS
#Biden2024
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After contracting at the fastest pace in history. Percentage changes mean nothing in this environment.
Between the end of March and now, the real economy has probably grown at its fastest pace in history.
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