Marshall Gramm
@marshallgramm
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#NevaPlay
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SAROCHA X MODERN GURU
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#MEGANxRM
• 350056 Tweets
Ravens
• 256544 Tweets
NAMJOON
• 253539 Tweets
Linkin Park
• 122306 Tweets
Lamar
• 116817 Tweets
Dybala
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Mahomes
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Flowers
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Chester
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Kelce
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Xavier Worthy
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#TZUYU_SOLO_RUNAWAYDAY
• 41517 Tweets
#BAZAARMENThailandxGemini
• 34680 Tweets
FOR ASIAN MEN WE PAVED THE WAY
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サブスク解禁
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FANZA
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Derrick Henry
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Mark Andrews
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Hayırlı Cumalar
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進次郎氏
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Isaiah Likely
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夫婦別姓
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ちいかわ寿司
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モモンガ
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アストロボット
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TransisiSEJUK PRABOWOJKW
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KitaKOMPAK KitaMENANG
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ニューヨーク
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ハチワレ
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#ドミノシェイクは水不使用
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Who ran fastest in the Derby accounting for ground loss? Honor A. P. ran 49 more feet than Authentic. He traveled a total of 6712 feet in 121.16 seconds for an avg of 55.40 ft/sec. His adjusted time for 1 1/4 (6600 ft) is 1:59.14. Fastest in the race. Ground loss from Trakus.
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Horse racing is incongruent with the mission of PETA. PETA is a fringe group that is viewed unfavorably by most people. Belinda Stronach’s sanctimonious letter gives them legitimacy and a seat at the table while at the same time she throws the racing industry under the bus. Scary
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It is exasperating to watch the racing industry cater to the wants of those who hate our sport while continuing to ignore the core customer - the horseplayer.
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Got some cred now going into teaching Racetrack Wagering Markets (begins March 12th)
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Satellite images of defunct racetracks - Manor Downs (TX), G. Rollie White Downs (TX), Green Mountain (VT), Great Barrington Fair (MA)
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Sunday Commercial Appeal, Sports, Page One. 💥 Enjoying my 15 minutes.
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In its 1st 3 days penny breakage at Ellis Park reduced takeout by 1.12% in the win pool, 1.70% in the place pool, 1.80% in the show pool vs dime breakage. That’s $33k from WPS pools back into bettors pockets. Hope other tracks follow. Great work by
@PatCummingsTIF
@racingideas
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Trainers ranked by how fast their first time starters get out of the gate in sprint races. Top/Last is the % of firsters that were first/last at the start according to the race chart. 6.1% of first time starters break first and 22.2% break last. Data - 2019 to present.
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Derby final/split times adjusted for ground loss from Trakus. Essential Quality ran 68’ more than the winner. He traveled 6711’ in 121.18s for an avg of 55.4 ft/sec. His adjusted 1 1/4 time (6600’) is 1:59.20. Fastest in the race. By this measure Medina Spirit was 5th fastest.
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Saratoga jockey colony ranked by the percentage of their mounts that break on top in sprint races. Also included is the pct that break last. 38% of horses that break on top make the lead and 22% win. Horses that break last win only 7% of the time. Data: All sprint races since ‘17
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Oaklawn Park is not among the six choices for the ABR’s Fan Choice Awards for Favorite Racetrack to Bet. What a joke. Oaklawn had the best racing in the country in 2020.
@ABRLive
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Without breakage Justify would’ve paid $2.90 to win the Preakness. Rounding to the nearest 20c on a $2 payoff took $356k out of bettors pockets and lowered the payout to $2.80. The stated Pimlico takeout is 18% on win wagers but was actually 20.69% for the race.
#endbreakage
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After 95 years it’s closing day at Derby Lane 😢. My favorite dog track for live racing. $46k tri-super forceout.
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A couple years ago I won the Parx title. Last night I slept in a parked car in front of the Parx casino. A downward spiral and cry for help? No. There wasn’t a vacant hotel room within 30 miles.
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Hey Oaklawn Park - Please please please don’t split the Arkansas Derby. Let the best run against the best in a full field of 14 and bring back the Northern Spur for second tier 3yos.
@OaklawnRacing
@OaklawnAnywhere
@NancyUryHolthus
@goofonroof
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The biggest two races of the day go off simultaneously. Brilliant!
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Beyer’s 1977 winnings of $50,644 has the equivalent purchasing power of $241,620 today. Great book. Reading it again for the umpteenth time.
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The 1st yr I followed racing was 87. The Travers that year brought together the best of a great crop. Overall these horses won $21mm and 35 G1s. 7 millionaires, 8 G1 winners. Just as importantly their connections were willing to lose. They lost 163 times. Alysheba lost 15 races.
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Dragging post time leads to a small short term handle increase. However once it is incorporated into the public’s expectations it has no net effect. Perhaps even a negative effect - I’ve missed more bets at GP than any other track as a result of having no clue when races go off
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Large purse increases coming at Turfway, Sam Houston. Churchill, Oaklawn purses continue to grow. Kentucky Downs and Colonial gave away a ton of money. On down the lines purses are on the rise. It’s a great time to be an owner. But this is short lived if we don’t grow handle.
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Horse Racing Industry — we need to help the greyhound industry defeat this bill. We can’t sit idly by. Greyhound racing has far fewer breakdowns than horse racing and 100% post race adoption. If this bill succeeds there is little doubt we are next.
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Asmussen is 1/48 over the last 2 weeks at Oaklawn. He’s lost 43 in a row. The odds of that happening is around 2000/1 (his expected win total was 6.73). Surprisingly, 20 (or 43%) of his starters have improved their Beyers and 9 have improved by double digits.
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I couldn’t even get out of the week without plowing my NHC winnings into buying another racehorse.
#NeverNotGambling
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Much love and respect for
@Utbighair
. Honored to be in the winning quinella with him. If his Tarnawa-Authentic double pays $62.60 instead of $59.20 he’s the winner. JK’s doubles were ~5% of the pool. Is that enough to distort the prices? Dunno. We both went all in on Monomoy Girl
MAJOR congrats to
@Utbighair
on his second place finish in the
@BreedersCup
Betting Challenge🥈👏
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Excited to teach my racing class in the spring but how do I explain to students that races were timed more accurately when their great grandparents where their age … and that it’s been a problem for 2 years!
@Equibase
@jockeyclub
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In ‘21 my top ten tracks by wagering volume in order: Del Mar, Oaklawn, Saratoga, Churchill, Belmont, Aqueduct, Parx, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream, Keeneland. If you drop the Breeders Cup Dmr falls to 15th. My betting breakdown was 63% WPS, 26% verticals, 11% horizontals.
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Hey
@OaklawnRacing
with California collapsing it’s your time to shine. Don’t squander this opportunity.
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My parents at the spa. They are only somewhat aware of my degeneracy.
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Top 30 racetracks by avg daily handle in 1968. You can see why it was tempting to close Saratoga and run downstate in August. Source: American Racing Manual, 1969.
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Projected KY Derby odds imputed from the Oaks-Derby double. $3.03mm in the pool. Current odds also listed — $3.68mm in the win pool.
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A privilege to have
@TravisStone
, near the end of his layoff, come to Memphis to guest lecture for my Racetrack Wagering Markets class. Here is the view from the back of the class during the running of the race of the day.
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Which tracks have big odds movements? (Take 2) Tracks ordered by the sum of squared diff between each horse in a race’s final and last click win share. Lower number = smaller odds change. Also shown is the pct of win pool before last click and 30 sec to post. 10/1/21 to 2/18/23.
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My kids Caroline and Will with Oaks winner Monomoy Girl.
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Remember when Belmont Fall meant the Woodward-Marlboro Cup-JCGC and Maskette-Ruffian-Beldame. Lady’s Secret won the mare series twice. Are we really better off with one “championship” weekend where everything else is reduced to preps as opposed to encouraging sustained campaigns?
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Palm Beach 11 was declared a no race because an iguana ran across the track.
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Since Jan 28th R Diodoro at Oaklawn is 1/39 with only 10 on the board (vs 7.4 projected wins). 62% of his have had their Beyers fall from their previous start vs 32% that improved. 43% (!) declined by double digits (5% improved by double digits). Avg decline of 5.8 beyer pts. 🥶
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When the bugler plays Auld Lang Syne as they go to the post for the Trails End (race 14) there will no doubt be a tear in my eye as I watch from home. Thank you Oaklawn Park! It’s been a wonderful meet. The greatest in your history.
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Imputed derby win odds from the oaks derby double. $2.9mm in the pool.
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Imputed Belmont Stakes odds from the Gold Cup - Belmont two day double. $313k bet.
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Not a fan of the jackpot Pick 6 but Churchill is the best with a 23.5% effective takeout (15% take and 10% to jackpot). NYRA’s Empire 6 has a 40% effective takeout (20% and 25%) which puts it more in line with the confiscatory rates at the Stronach tracks. Bad deal for players.
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The weights of the horses provided by Remington Park is so interesting and potential useful. Wish more tracks did this.
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115 sires represented among the 326 3yos nominated to the Triple Crown with Into Mischief leading the way with 20. Full list below.
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Here are the lifetime best Beyer speed figures for the BC Classic contenders. The point differences are translated into beaten lengths for a 1 1/4 race. What does it mean that the Pac Classic was 14 points faster than the Travers? 9.5 lengths.
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Track no. 69. Delta Downs. Been a few years since I’ve added a track to my collection.
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“Gamblers gamble” 😬
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20% WPS and 27% exotic takeout for the Saudi Cup are absurd. However the host fees are just 5% so that’s a fat rebate and low effective takeout for players in the right states with the right accounts. But the no rebate recreational player is getting fleeced.
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Does anyone really believe Chad was sticking it to his employees? The labor force on the backside is active and mobile. If Chad wasn’t paying a market wage he’d be unable to hire competent workers needed to achieve success. This was clearly a colossal accounting screw up.
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I don’t play Gulfstream outside of big race days. For those that do how do you put up with all these past performance lines with race fractions unavailable? They’ve run 29(!) races at the “championship” meet without internal fractions.
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What have I learned about myself in the last 5 years? I have a hard enough time picking 1 much less 4, 5 or 6. My Saratoga wagering by pool
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Gun Runner paid $6.80 in the Classic but would've pd $6.94 without breakage. That is equal to a 1.74% increase in takeout. End Breakage Now
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Carmouche! 8th win since Friday. Love the emotion in the interview with Ritchie.
@KendrickCarmou1
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Imputed win odds for the BC Classic from the two day double originating in the Juvenile. $291k bet.
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Fonner extended their meet and raised host fees by 2%. I’m sympathetic and understand they have more market power than they will ever have again. However that money comes right out of many horseplayers pockets. It would come out of mine too but I quit betting Fonner a month ago.
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With penny breakage Justify would’ve paid $3.68 to win the Belmont. Rounding to the nearest 10c on a $2 payoff took $384k out of bettors pockets and lowered the payout to $3.60. The stated Belmont takeout is 16% on win wagers but was actually 18.12% for the race.
#endbreakage
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Booking mares? Some stallion data for foal crops ‘15 (6yos) thru ‘18 (3yos). I will be sending multiple mares to Tonalist and Blame - they look like value. TFUS is avg fastest
@TimeformUS
fig, AWD is avg win distance. Stud fees are for ‘22 unless denoted by *. Sorted by avg rank.
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Final and split times adjusted for ground loss for 4 Derby preps. Calculated using the Trakus charts. Each winner ran the fastest final 3f. 2 of 4 winners ran the 2nd fastest adjusted final time. (This deep dive is probably a meaningless waste of time but hey it’s the Derby!)
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Here are stallion stats for dirt races only. Runhappy!
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Rebates are derived from ADW margins. They do not come at the expense of horsemen or the host track. Ideally takeout would be reduced for everyone.
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Tiz the Law paid $3.40 to place which is equivalent to what he was paying to win. He would’ve paid $3.00 if he had shared the top two with Honor A. P. and $3.60 for any other horse except Authentic, Ny Traffic and Money Moves. Where were the big bad computer teams on this?
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The single biggest issue in Horse Racing is pricing. Period. And there is not a close 2nd. Raising the cost of a wager on your most loyal customers is idiotic given the proliferation of much cheaper alternatives. Host fees and takeout must go down not up.
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10 years ago I dived into horse ownership when I claimed Aunt Dot Dot for 5k. I won a shake and was offered 10k for her on the spot. Today I would take the quick profit, but I didn’t then. Breeding is a rocky road but nothing beats winning with a homebred
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If you love horse racing you need to join the fight to protect greyhound racing in FL. Dog racing is cleaner and far safer than horse racing. Dogs rarely sustain serious injuries and those are almost never fatal. 100% of racers are petted out. If dog racing goes horses are next.
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Imputed odds for the Classic, Distaff and Turf from the two day doubles.
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In a vacuum Mattress Mac’s $2.4mm bet drove down the odds on Essential Quality from 4.0 to 1 to 2.9 to 1 and increased the win payout on Medina Spirit from $24.80 to $26.20. Its actually a smaller effect than above because the low price pushed money away from EQ toward others.
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“Egg shaped” Jamaica. From the 1958 American Racing Manual.
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The 2022 Colonel Henry A Montgomery Distinguished Scholar Award goes to Danny Brown, a senior from Cedar Grove, NJ. Danny bested 73 other students enrolled in Econ 265 Econ of Racetrack Wagering Markets. 2nd by 40c, his play in the final race finished a nk ahead of the leader’s.
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Belmont Stakes fractions and final time adjusted for distance traveled. Essential Quality was the fastest for each of the final four quarters. He made his big move on the home turn going 4 wide. Would love see him in a throwback JCGC going two miles. Data from Trakus.
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Trying to get an idea of what the final odds will be on the horse you are betting? Use imputed odds from the previous race’s double. Here is an example using The Lexington-Jenny Wiley double. Racetracks should display imputed odds - more useful than live odds for most of betting
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The Economics of Racetrack Wagering Markets. Round 2. Second half of the spring semester. 2 credits.
#RhodesCollegeEcon
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If you are a horse racing person please join the challenge of posting a racing photo. Just one picture, no description. Please copy the text in your status, post a picture and look at some great memories/pictures.
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My dad on McCain’s passing. McCain was his closest friend from his Senate days.
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The takeout on KY historical horse racing was 8.38% in Jan. Gross Commission of $20mm off $248mm in handle. Why do the tracks understand the concept of churn with their slots players and not their horse players? (KY Handle and Excise Tax Report for Jan, 2020)
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I sold the mare Super Slash in foal to Bellamy Road in 2016 for $12k. That foal was named Frosted Ice by her owners and just beat my homebred Steam Engine in the Saratoga 5th. Poetic Justice.
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Do you know why races on Tapeta at Gulfstream handle 21% more than dirt races? Because they are significantly more likely to have Pick 5 (65%) and Pick 6 pools (78%). For WPS/EX/TR/SU the difference is 8% and once you adjust for field size dirt races outhandle synth by up to 11%.
“It’s been a godsend for us,”
@GulfstreamPark
exec Mike Lakow says of new Tapeta track. Yesterday, Stronach Group exec Craig Fravel said Tapeta races at GP averaging almost one more starter than dirt fields and handle on Tapeta is 21% higher than dirt.
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For those familiar with the Dr Z system (finding underbet horses in the place/show pool relative to their win odds), the Bel card had 2 nice offerings. Gamine: 48% win, 36% place, 33% show. Tiz the Law: 46%-35%-30%. Each paid $2.60 to show. Not ashamed to admit I hammered each.
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First crop sires ranked by the average of their runners’ best figure. Arrogate is ranked 21st in earnings and has only two winners but his starters have run decently fast.
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Trying to break out of a slump so getting back to the basics. Huge advantage to be on or near the lead in dirt races (duh). All races since ‘17. A total of 10k dirt sprints, 5k dirt routes with 8 horse field. BL is beaten lengths, used fieldsize>= 6; 52k sprints, 25k routes.
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I love you
@OaklawnRacing
but you need to devote some resources to the morning line. Been brutal. Only 8 of 17 morning line favs went off as race favs on Fri/Sat. Today Hidden Scroll (7/2 ML, will go off at 1/2) and Midnight Las Vegas (8/1 ML, went off as fav at 2/1).
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$3,663,704 bet into the Fonner Pick 5 forceout. With a 20% takeout and $497,810 carryover there will be $3,428,774 returned to bettors. That’s a 6.41% effective takeout. Leave the 7 up!
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I “supplemented” my way on the ITM players pod in search of karma. I’ve been on twice and each time Warriors Charge followed my appearance with a win. Let’s make it 3 for 3. 🤞🤞🤞
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With the fam in the Saratoga paddock before my homebred Dot Matrix's race.
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Vegas doesn’t ⬆️ the vig for the Sup Bowl. Why? Because there is competition among bet providers. Maybe there needs to be competition in racing instead of a single tote system. Maybe a new tote system not run by racetracks. No burdensome fees. Heck no host fee at all. Revolution
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Sires by foal crop ranked by the average of each runners fastest
@TimeformUS
fig. Min 25 runners. AWD is avg distance of races won.
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Stronach 5 had only $288,046 bet into it despite a $96,906 carryover. After a 12% takeout there was $350,386 returned to bettors. That’s a 21.64% players edge!! The payout was $3997 which is 5.85 times the parlay value of $683.
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Mindhunter Season 2 Episode 8. Set in 1981. Agent Tench has the DRF w/Colonial Downs (opened in ‘97) and includes Beyer speed figs (not until mid-90s). The race he’s looking at is the 13th at Santa Rosa on Aug 1, 2003. (I was so excited to see the form I had to find the race)
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Much maligned Runhappy is turning into a decent stallion and offers value at a $10k stud fee. 3rd best 2nd crop sire and 14th overall ranked by the average of the best dirt TFUS fig for each runner in the 2018 foal crop.
@VOLJACK79
was early onto this.
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I was a brutal 665th out of 698 at NHC18. My one winning move was booking a Sunday morning flight with no backup plan. The cost of changing my travel had I advanced would’ve been less than twice of prebooking a later flight. 9/1 was fair value (10% advance). Value Play. Boom!
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1968 average attendance for pro sports teams and horse tracks in 4 major markets. Football was king, but, except for the O’s, racetracks outdrew all others pro teams.
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Made it Churchill! First time Oaks/Derby. Let’s start off the weekend right. Luck of the Draw
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$7,325,323 bet into the Gulfstream Rainbow 6 forceout. With a 20% takeout and $1,366,160 carryover there will be $7,226,418 returned to bettors. This equates to a 1.35% takeout. It should pay ~2.5 times win parlay but recently these forceouts have underpaid relative to projection
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Saratoga dirt races since ‘17. From top: Winners by position at first call; Wire to wire winners; Avg split times; Regression coefficients for qtr (half) time on final time for sprints (route); Run up distances. (resid is the difference between project and actual split time)
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