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MarketswithMay
@marketswithmay
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Opinionated finance commenter mostly posting on the 400+ earnings calls I listen to a Q. I don't give advice. It's your $, do your DD.
New York, NY
Joined December 2022
Should be clear at this point, I'm building my voice on X as a resource to those wanting clarity on financial "stuff." Simply tag me on what you want explained. Since I know I'll get trolled (again) if I remove it, below is my background.
From time to time people "dox" or send me very awkward, not-so-nice messages. I'm not really hiding but I find flexing one's background to be obnoxious. Even the most accomplished person can be wrong and the facts should just stand or not stand by themselves. Also, I want to remind everyone that the fact I do not do what I used to in my background makes me a retail investor, albeit with Institutional training. If it's that big a deal, here's my background in a longer format, which hopefully once and for all will sort this out. I worked at $GS & $MS. At $MS, I worked in the Barra division (the algo biz) and also supported the data vendor implementation area of $MSCI Barra before these areas were spun out as $MSCI. I worked at an $8bln hedge fund (NOT Citadel) with direct P&L responsibility for constructing hedges via what the kids today call a quantimental strategy. This portfolio did engage in shorting stock for the purposes of hedging and I did it into the Lehman debacle. That plus the fact that a sliver of my role at $GS involved getting large asset managers & pensions to sign the hypothecation agreement is why my background includes a fairly extensive knowledge of the operational aspects and history of shorting stock. Ultimately, I settled into a final role at an outsourced boutique firm that provided a host of financial services to all of Asset Management (Hedge Funds, Pension Funds, Asset Managers, and to a lesser extent Insurance firms with fund-related components). These services included hedge construction, risk and marketing analytics, and more classic biz strategy-related activities. In other words, I did nearly everything other than Fund Administration and return stream generation while at that company. That said, we did do return stream optimization for some hedge funds, asset managers, and pensions. My path on Wall Street was not straightforward, which I recognize makes it very hard for people to understand what training I've received. I ended up doing all the painfully hard jobs no one wanted. This meant that unlike those that walk into a fully created role I have done the following: 1) Built out an infrastructure to support hedging or proper monitoring of multi-portfolio, multi-asset class strategies for myself and for many fund's risk reporting infrastructures. 2) DD'd large data sets and out-of-the-box algo's and then built was needed around this. 3) Conducted, recommended, or vetted a fund at the component level both single and multi-asset class. 4) Analyzed nearly every single type of liquid and semi-liquid asset. 5) Had a need to understand nearly every type of industry and review financial statements at a basic enough level to help play referee between the risk and research teams on behalf of the CIO. 6) Worked with the C-Level folks at large Asset Managers and Pension funds to address their biz strategy concerns 7) Built out the supporting teams needed for ongoing operations of the above. After resigning I have done projects that involve: 1) Winding down an unsuccessful company & identifying, readying for sale, and selling off any potentially salvageable parts 2) Helping write business plans and white papers 3) Assessing the viability of various NFT & crypto biz 4) Teach. I'm a Professor of Data Science for a Midwest Uni, though I do not yet have a doctorate or PhD. 5) Help assess acquisition targets This is why my stuff likely does not sound like other people who work in a single vertical of finance such as research, trading, investment banking, or private equity. I post actively on X for 2 reasons. a) I get bored during the day. b) I had someone suggest I lacked credibility because my follower count was too low on social media. I find item (b) annoying since anyone with a real resume SHOULD be complianced from posting by the SEC until they retire. The few that can comment are typically still working 80 hours a day vs posting on social media. And then there are a few fund managers that do it for marketing purposes. Regardless, this is the social construct of what's up in modern times, and if that's the game, then fine. Until I get my count to what people need for "acceptability", I will answer any finance question that folks post and tag me on. I have been told I should just tap my personal contacts to follow me. Most are not on social media (aka compliance issues), plus I'd rather do it organically by adding value. If I don't answer your tag on a question, don't take it personally. From time to time, I have other projects that take me away from Social Media, or I'm traveling or spending time with my aging parents and family. Since this is about me getting in front of being doxed, I'm sure one day this will come & I'll get criticized for it, so here's a fun fact: I read astrology. It's not a passing fancy. I am very good at it, really enjoy doing it, and have done over 1000 people's charts quite a few of which are C-level execs at companies with well over 500 employees and some are also famous actors and actresses here in NYC. I'll remind you of JP Morgan's Quote: "Millionaires don't use Astrology, billionaires do." But to be very clear, I am not a billionaire and loads of people are wealthier and more successful than I am if you use money as the major metric. Whether you agree or disagree with me, I very much wish you the best. Good luck with life in general & your trades. Thank you for your interest in mine, even those of you who had ill feelings and wanted to dox me in anger.
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I'm not a Trump voter. I voted independent. That said, I voted for a lot of Republicans this cycle. Some of this attack on the Press due to the way it's tagged in the database is disturbing. Some might be wrong (like Politico, which is known to be biased), but Reuters and AP are not the same type of news org in the sense that they do not produce commentary. They are literally a centralized place for where Journalists and Photographers can send photos so they can be used. AP deals with making sure those folks get paid. A lot of them are in super dangerous places. Moreover, AP in particular is responsible for "calling" the election. This is a coordinated effort that takes a year of preparation in conjunction with a variety of defense-related branches of the government. And they did this role of calling the election in favor of Trump and earlier than the Democrats were willing to. 1st amendment was why I gave so many Republicans my vote. And this attack against specifically Reuters and AP legit scares me.
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@ColtonBlakeX Will this reduce all the voluptuous women that - while likely not real accounts - like all my posts?
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@Asker_itwasme I this case it wasn't $MPW... That said 100% agree!! There should be a lightheartedness to all of this. We are trying to make money doing something we all love and hopefully, it's via companies we support and want to see succeed.
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@Chaos2Cured I do actually think they are quite clever though. I just wish they'd be just as clever, without any hateful feelings toward me πππ
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$WMB...+2.28% Very deserved. Even if you don't care about Energy Stocks. This call has notable Macro Implications, especially if you own Data Center/AI plays. Rev - 4%, Op Inc -22%, Net Inc -40% (none of these metrics are how you primarily look at this industry). EBITDA/CF is what we care about given D&A and also the cap ex that is happening. This is DVD world in an industry where cap-ex happens first before very consistent high-margin cash flow happens later. (think landlord style). EBITDA came in at a record +4.4%. no risk despite builds that occurred. It was a great Q. Zero risk to DVD and future growth. They are saying that data centers are misunderstood for how much energy & pressure they put on the infrastructure. They are talking about needing to double capacity in the next decade. So whatever they've done in the last 25 years since I first took them around has to double to meet demand. For non-stock people: They are saying that they could see peak days (aka black-out risk days) happening when the weather has nothing to do with it, given demand. This has to be solved and their biz (mid/downstream energy, $KMI $OKE) is a part of it. For newbies, $WMB is midstream & downstream, but their strategy involves buying SOME upstream (oil & gas production) where it makes sense for flowing through to provide the supply that downstream assets are demanding at record levels. This is not what I'm hearing is $KMI's strategy at this time. They might be doing some upstream, but their whole asset mix is a little bit different given where the pipes are located, so likely not the highlight. Still need to listen to $OKE. But all the pipes are likely fine as long-term DVD plays given the nature of projects (cap-ex ROC vs return excess capital to shareholders). ON THE IMPLICATIONS TO RATES AND CAPITAL Capital is coming into the space & all 3 pipe companies have brought leverage down substantially. This likely means you see more acquisitions wherever they are undervalued. Right now, they are in a period where their capex is less capital-intensive than before. HOWEVER, realize what they are saying can't be done without some build (financing). What they do is strategic to the US AI arms race. Hence holding rates where they are at, has to be baked into the calculus of macroeconomic viewpoints. As a final note: I want to mention these are good people. One of the few management teams I distinctly recall for their kindness & thoughtfulness, when I took them around for their road show in my early 20s. They've likely changed out some folks, but likely the culture persists.
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@MikePetermann1 You gotta have a few haters in life, otherwise, you gotta try harder to make it more interesting...
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It seems like they focused on specific line items that were true and required investigation. What they missed was how it would work itself out. So like, yes, the financing deals made during the height of cheap capital. That was def structured poorly for a rising rate environment. But how that gets worked out? What that implies at 3x BV vs 50% of BV. All wrong. And the stock is still at that valuation! We shall see. I'm against counting my chickens before they are hatched. Especially given we have such a severe egg shortage.
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$EQIX..-2% in the premarket on a great Q. Rev + 7%, AFFO +11% This is data centers and this is just more affirmation that there's no risk to the DVD which is being raised, this stock, or pretty much anything going on here. They are saying that if they had more capacity, they would have leased even more. Here is the Geographic split. Note that they are growing most rapidly in Asia, but that is also the smaller biz of the 3. Also, power is a thing that has to be resolved for them to grow anywhere. Hence, the placement of these data centers (which will be strategic for every nation) will necessarily be parallel to power availability. Right now a sub 2% DVD and in the middle of a build out. No risk here, but my play is $IRM for the long term only b/c that has better valuation. If the gov shreds paper doc and finally goes digital all that happens is they get that space back to put data centers. I'll be watching for that as a chance to buy more $IRM.
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@SFarringtonBKC @fundamatica It's true. My highest level of stress of all time was when I did this for a living. There is no love and I hated it, but alas, the ladies with no rich parents in Finance don't usually get good/easy jobs.
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Finally. A true statement about the housing shortage that both acknowledges that it exists AND ALSO that the whole Illegals immigration thing is a problem as relates to it. If we have more infrastructure we should open it up for LEGAL visa holders and US citizens first, illegals next. Folks forget that this $59m FEMA magically produced to pay the rent bill in NYC for illegals is actually big enough to build/subsidize affordable multi-fam structures elsewhere to put a dent in the lack of build over the last 15 years.
J.P. Morgan: The increase in the undocumented immigrant population may "be ramping up housing demand more than figures suggest, resulting in a greater shortage of stock"
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$CSCO... +6% in the premarket. Rev +10%, Op Inc + 0.5%, Net Inc -10% Seems like it's the massive increase in free cash flow and the increases in orders that is doing it today for $CSCO due to data centers. Trading at 17x future earnings. Likely one of the cheaper names with a data center end market. For folks that care, they do use $AMD chips. Generally speaking, I want more security exposure, and this is one of the cheapest remaining, so I may find a place to dip my toes in this depending on what price I can get.
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The Associated Press has a key role in the US elections. They were were the first news Agency to Call the Election in favor of Trump even when others like CNN waited much longer. @X is not allowing me to write a note, so here are the links.
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@tutueme @Chadwick_Moore They get fair reporting the election, votes being counted and reported in aggregate together and Trump becoming president.
The Associated Press has a key role in the US elections. They were were the first news Agency to Call the Election in favor of Trump even when others like CNN waited much longer. @X is not allowing me to write a note, so here are the links.
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