Dr Maria Shagina 🇺🇦
@maria_shagina
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Senior Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy, IISS | Ex @FIIA_fi and UniZurich | Economic statecraft, sanctions & energy.
Joined June 2016
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I was invited by the EU Commission to give recommendations on how to prevent sanctions circumvention. Here is a breakdown of what I said🧵
It was an honour to contribute to 🇪🇺 EU roundtable on sanctions circumvention. Sanctions are only as good as their enforcement, and there is much that can be improved. Cross-border coordination and public-private information sharing are key.
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How was Russia able to launch its biggest aerial attack on Ukraine, if Moscow's stockpiles suppose to be dwindling?
Janes: Russia likely stockpiled microchips and other technology necessary to build precision missiles before invading Ukraine in Feb, possibly starting years ago.
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International criticism works: Switzerland has started softening its restrictive export controls to allow “a certain group of democratic states" to export Swiss-made ammunition without having to consult Bern.
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⚡️Biden has just announced new sanctions on Russia:
- full blocking sanctions on VEB and a military bank (Promsvyazbank?)
- sovereign debt sanctions
- sanctions on oligarchs and their family members
- halting NS2 in coordination with Germany
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Russian National Reinsurance Company will no longer consider accidents resulting from poor maintenance or repair of aircraft as an insured event. "Have a safe flight!" never sounded more worrisome.
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A deep-dive into the sanctions on Russian oligarchs: 🇬🇧sanctioned 10 of the richest billionaires; 🇪🇺- 9; 🇺🇸- only 4. Half of 🇷🇺 20 richest people haven't been sanctioned yet. Discrepancies between the jurisdictions remain despite close coordination.
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🇨🇭Swiss exports of turbojets, air pumps and gas turbines to 🇷🇺surged in the past 2 months as companies raced to fill any orders signed before sanctions. Total🇨🇭exports were about 83% higher in June than in Jan. Surely this is not the race one wants to win.
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From my mom, not a sanctions expert: "Western sanctions don't fly as fast as Russian missiles"
Today will be crucial.
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⚡️EU officials are drafting a phased-in ban on Russian oil products designed to give Germany and other countries time to arrange alternative suppliers. The option will be discussed after French elections/April 24.
Can't believe this is happening.
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❗️EU leaders endorsed unprecedented plans to use profits generated by frozen Russian sovereign assets for Ukraine reconstruction, and called on the European Commission to make legal proposals to that effect.
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🇨🇳 Sinopec suspended talks for a $500-mln petrochemical investment in 🇷🇺Sibur's Amur GCC. CNPC and CNOOC were also urged by the Chinese MFA not to make any rash moves buying Russian assets due to secondary sanctions risks.
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Estonia plans to introduce a legal blueprint for seizing Russian assets by the end of January. Estonia’s AML authority estimates that frozen funds amount to almost €20 million. Not a lot, but setting the precedent in the EU is more important here.
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🇩🇪Germany plans to reduce the country's dependence on Russian gas from 55% to 30% by the end of the year. Berlin hopes to halve imports of Russian oil as soon as this summer and completely abandon hard coal from Russia in the autumn. Finally!
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⚡️UK sanctions:
- all major Russian banks will have their assets frozen and will be excluded from the UK financial system
- a full and immediate freeze of VTB
- ban on raising capital/borrowing money on UK markets for major Russian entities
- similar finan sanctions on BLR
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As major Western tech companies withdrew or suspended their operations in Russia, Moscow's high dependency on foreign hardware and software in the financial infrastructure became even more pronounced🧵
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The next sanctions package will include a ban on Russian gas imports to prevent its resumption. It's a highly symbolic move as Russia's gas exports to the EU dropped by 70%, but it shows Brussels' determination to fully decouple from Russian energy.
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Such microelectronic components were likely used for civilian purposes and that Russia may have obtained them through third parties, such as states or private entities willing to risk the penalty of U.S. sanctions if caught.
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The US has halted dollar debt payments from Russian government accounts at US banks, increasing pressure on Moscow to find alternative funding sources to pay bond investors. The exemption was set to expire on May 25.
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For the first time, German prosecutors have seized several apartments belonging to a Russian lawmaker sanctioned by the EU. Overall Germany froze Russian assets worth of €4.5 billion, including central bank deposits, shares in companies, ships and yachts.
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🇨🇭 UBS will drop up to 75% of Credit Suisse’s Russian offshore clients. Another Swiss bank Julius Bär announced that it will end all business with clients based in Russia by 2024.
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⚡️The US has just dropped a big sanctions package on Russia targeting its military-industrial complex - 130 new Russian evasion and military-industrial targets
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The costs of delayed energy sanctions are already too high. If what happened in Bucha and Mariupol isn't the red line for the EU to stop importing Russian oil and gas, I don't know what is.
The clamour for a new sanctions round will only grow as these horrific images and testimonies are collected
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German Economics Minister Robert Habeck wants to engage Russia economically by cooperating on renewable energy supplies to help de-escalate tensions over Ukraine. Oh my. Ostpolitik never dies.
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Major foreign oilfield service companies are looking for ways to leave the Russian market:
- Baker Hughes terminated all existing contracts with its Russian counterparties as of May 15
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The German government has officially proposed that the EU imposes sanctions on Russian individuals responsible for a large-scale hacking of the Bundestag. A sanctions proposal was sent to other EU member states for consideration.
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Italy, France and Austria are the world's most exposed international lenders to Russia. Among them, France's Societe Generale, Austria's Raiffeisen, Italy's UniCredit and ING of the Netherlands would stand to lose the most if sanctions on Russian banks are imposed.
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If you wonder how sweeping export controls are impacting Russia, here is an insight from a Senate hearing: Russian military is forced to use computer chips from dishwashers and refrigerators in some military equipment.
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Europe’s biggest companies have suffered at least €100bn in direct losses from 🇷🇺 operations.
"It turns out that cut and run was the best strategy for companies deciding what to do at the start of the war. The faster you left, the lower your loss.”
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🇦🇹Raiffeisen Bank International is delaying plans to leave Russia, as it hopes that the war will end soon. The bank provides a payment lifeline for many companies there, handling 40-50% of all the money flows between Russia and the rest of the world.
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Incoming sanctions package on Thursday will focus on closing down loopholes and ensuring effective sanctions enforcement. That will likely mean secondary sanctions on non-aligned third parties - China, India, UAE - and preventing sanctions evasion via digital assets.
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The limits of Russia's energy weaponization: on three recent occasions Russia walked back on its threats, as pivoting to new energy markets isn't an easy feat:
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Avoiding reputational damage and withdrawing from Russia paid off for companies: the stockmarket has rewarded companies that have divested completely. This holds true for companies across sectors and regions, and for firms of different sizes.
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The share of imported components across various sectors of the Russian economy: textiles (74.8%), pharmaceuticals (53%), electrical equipment (57.6%), cars (56.3%) and computers (68.9%).
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The untold story of Russian sanctions: LNG has remained untouched by Western sanctions. While the imports of piped gas to the EU fell, the imports of Russian LNG rose by 50%. About 80% of 🇷🇺LNG went to countries that joined sanctions - to 🇯🇵, 🇫🇷 and 🇪🇸.
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After Turkey, Kazakhstan is step up the monitoring of goods that pass through the country for re-export, real-time tracking of the entire chain of movement of goods from border to border. Big win for the West, as the mere threats of sanctions are working.
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That would be huge if happens: senior Brussels officials are discussing the creation of an EU-wide sanctions authority, akin to OFAC, to ensure even enforcement, better intelligence gathering and co-ordination.
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The EU is expected to implement a full coal ban on Russia...from mid-August, "following pressure from Germany to delay the measure."
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Smart sanctions aren't smart if Russia can cannibalize civilian items to use microchips for military purposes.
The imports of household appliances from Armenia and Kazakhstan - washing machines, refrigerators - soared after the EU introduced a chip ban.
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The US, UK, Japan and Canada plan to announce a ban on new gold imports from Russia, the world’s second-largest producer of gold with around a 10% slice of the globe’s output. In 2020, Russia exported nearly $19 bn. Over 90% was exported to the UK.
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⚡️The UK has imposed 65 fresh sanctions, targeting 🇷🇺strategic industries, banks and business elites: Alfa Bank, Alrosa, the world's largest diamond producer, O. Tinkov, founder of Tinkoff Bank, H. Gref, CEO of Sberbank, P Kovaleva, stepdaughter of Lavrov.
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The UK broadened the criteria for Russia sanctions. And quite substantially! The broadened criteria lay down the groundwork for potential sanctions in all key sectors of the Russian economy:
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Poland seeks to create new powers within the EU to make it easier for the seized Russian assets to be redirected towards the reconstruction of Ukraine. Legal redress at EU courts and differences in national competencies will make it challenging.
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Russia's oil and gas revenue is soaring today, but the long-term picture is gloomy: Russia’s influence as an energy superpower will wane, as Moscow decouples from Europe. This will affect the structure of the 🇷🇺 economy. My first blog post for
@IISS_org
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The EU adopted 4th package of sanctions:
🔺an import ban on 🇷🇺steel products
🔺a new investment ban in the 🇷🇺energy sector
🔺ban on luxury goods
🔺a ban on credit rating services for 🇷🇺companies
🔺revoking 🇷🇺's MFN status
🔺asset freezes on oligarchs
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The EU's 5th sanctions package could finally trigger an energy embargo. Achieving unity and agreeing on the trigger prove to be problematic. The option is likely to be linked to a Russian chemical weapons attack or a heavy bombardment of the capital Kyiv.
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Austria has been blocking new EU sanctions on loans to Belarusian banks. Austrian banks are now responsible for some 90% of interbank loans in Belarus. Raiffeisen Bank has even a Belarusian subsidiary which loans money directly to regime-owned enterprises.
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FM Baerbock on
#Nordstream2
: "...as things stand, this pipeline cannot be approved as it is" = the requirements of European energy law have not been met and safety issues remain unresolved.
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JP Morgan: Russia owns around 82 vessels out of the 7,200 that transport oil worldwide; the G7 and allies own about 4,700 vessels. To redirect to the East/Global South, Russia would need increase the number of its tankers by roughly 4 times.
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A strong case for using countermeasures to proceed with the confiscation of Russian sovereign assets: "bank robbers should not expect banks to honor their safe deposit boxes" & "The aggressor’s rights do not take precedence over the rights of its victims"
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Absolutely thrilled to be promoted to Senior Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy at
@IISS_org
!🎈
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🇨🇳🇷🇺China-Russia trade stats are highly asymmetric, indicating Beijing risk-averse stance due to sanctions risks: In the first 8 months of 2022, Russian exports to China increased by 50% to $72.9 billion, while imports from China increased by only 8.5% to $44.2 billion.
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Finland reduces its 100% dependence on Russian gas. Gazprom has ceased to be the only gas supplier to the country. The gas from Latvian storages will be supplied via the Balticconnector, an interconnector between Estonia and Finland.
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Great article by
@Andrew__Roth
on the impact of latest sanctions: econ growth is sacrificed for the sake of the wartime economy; the brain drain will make it hard to reinvent the economy; sanctions risks & uncertainty will keep int business away from 🇷🇺
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My debut for
@ForeignPolicy
unpacking novel and complex export controls against Russia as well as their weaknesses. The success of export controls depends on the tightness of restrictions, uniqueness of each technology and concentration of supply chains.
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In great company with
@crmiller1
,
@jakluge
,
@zakavkaza
and
@sdpetrella
discussing the Russian economy for
@WarOnTheRocks
's In Brief:
The rouble's fall shows the limits of Russia's economic resilience and signs of an overheating economy.
We asked five experts to explain what is happening in the Russian economy after the country raised its benchmark interest rate by 3.5 points last month.
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Why did the Russian economy fare better than expected? One of the reasons is that the West targeted imports to Russia but increased imports from it, even in those countries that have taken an active role in opposing Russia.
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India is capitalizing on Russia's isolation: since the war in Ukraine, India has increased imports of 🇷🇺crude by more than 25-fold = more than 1/4 of EU imports. As long as 🇷🇺crude isn't sanctioned, India will continue encouraging its SOEs to purchase it.
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With the unprecedented sanctioning coalition against Russia, all eyes are on China: how much will Beijing be willing to step in? Lessons from 2014 still apply, but the new hard-hitting measures trigger the large-scale chilling effect even for China's state-backed institutions.🧵
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A sobering take by
@MESandbu
on the state of the European industry and on the Western-sanctions-hurt-us-more narrative: the industry is more robust and resilient than it may seem: "Europe has fought the economic war better than it gives itself credit for."
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The Dutch are pushing for the creation of an EU 'sanctions headquarters' in Brussels to oversee the implementation of the measures. Not a new idea, but it will take some heavy lifting to get everyone on board. Germany, France, Italy and Spain are in favour
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When your financial sovereignty is limited by your technological vulnerability: the issuance of domestic cards Mir surged, as all major Russian banks reported an increase. But 🇷🇺microchip manufacturer Mikron, sanctioned by the US, doesn't have capacity to cover the boosted demand
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Energy weaponization is on: as a result of Russia's missile attack, 11 objects of critical infrastructure were damaged in 🇺🇦. Energy facilities across the entire country were hit.
In 🇩🇰, the island of Bornholm experienced an outage due to undetected breach on electricity cable.
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#NordStream2
AG is considering filing insolvency in a Swiss court as soon as this week.
The NS2 saga seems to be coming to an end, as Russia gets incredibly toxic.
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@elinaribakova
+ full blocking sanctions on key banks such as Sberbank, Gazprombank
+ de-SWIFT-ing more entities
+ Secondary sanctions on the financial, defence and energy sectors
+ metals, chemicals, coal, gas
+ insurance sector
Software is already affected through export controls
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Non-Western powers don't play by the rules. Neither Russia, nor China. Informal measures with plausible deniability is the core of their economic statecraft. The West needs to sharpen its tools - it isn't going to be a smooth ride.
Since February 24, when Russia launched the war against Ukraine, I was tirelessly trying to convince my fellow Austrians as well as the international audience on every TV, radio and podcast show, that Russia had launched commodities war against Europe too. Time proved me right.
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A profound misunderstanding of what Russia wants and its relations with China. But hey let's offer Russia a grand bargain it doesn't seek to forget about the war in Ukraine and "at a minimum" agree to a ceasefire.
“Only Washington and its partners can provide Moscow with the commercial opportunities, technological cooperation, and geopolitical options that it needs to avoid becoming a permanent junior partner to Beijing,” writes Thomas Graham.
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- A drastic increase of cargoes with unknown destination; most likely will end up in India
- A surge of ship-to-ship transfers of 🇷🇺crude since EU sanctions were introduced
- Russian crude cargoes are going into overseas storage tanks (in Turkey and Ghana)
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Canada's role in the latest round of Russia sanctions is worth highlighting: Finance Minister Freeland sent a proposal to the US Treasury and the state depart to sanctions the CBR and de-SWIFT Russian banks. Now Canada sanctions Nabiullina ahead of others.
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The US is adding the sanctions pressure on Russia and Belarus:
- full blocking sanctions on 22 🇷🇺defense entities;
- banning Russian aircraft from entering/using 🇺🇸 airspace;
- export controls targeting 🇷🇺oil refining and on tech goods to Belarus.
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Ahead of a heavy diplomacy week, the US telegraphed to Russia what sanctions will be imposed if it decides to invade Ukraine. Those are not exactly the economic measures of “massive consequences” 🧵
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Lavrov: this wave of sanctions isn’t going to make us "call for help and ask for forgiveness”
Also Lavrov: lifting sanctions imposed on Russia is part of peace negotiations between Moscow and Ukraine.
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Having weaponized grain supplies, Russia is set to exploit its dominating position in the supply of neon, a key gas for the production of chips. Moscow has limited exports of noble gases until Dec. 2022.
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The EU’s 6th sanctions package to include:
- a phase-in embargo on 🇷🇺 crude oil by Nov and on oil products by Dec 2022
- an exemption for Hungary and Slovakia for 20 months
- de-SWIFTing Sberbank, Credit Bank of Moscow and Rosselkhozbank
- target media outlets for disinformation
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Russia's push for self-sufficiency is destined to fail. Since 2014, import substitution has largely been unsuccessful, revealing deep-seated dependency on Western financing, tech and know-how. My input for
@georgikantchev
@WSJ
.
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🇺🇸 Baker Hughes is withdrawing its services from all 🇷🇺LNG projects - Gazprom's Sakhalin-2 and Novatek's Yamal LNG. The finalization of Arctic LNG-2 is in question, as the project depends on the delivery of gas turbines which Russia failed to substitute.
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Prior to 2022, Russia's dedollarization efforts were top-down, resulting in the public-private divide. Now with unprecedented sanctions, local businesses are actively embracing it. Holding $ and € has become toxic, but also more expensive. As a result, business is moving to yuan
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Unimaginable pictures from Berlin today, including a Russian tank facing the Russian embassy. The tank was captured near Bucha in the early months of the war.
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Super excited to start a new position as Diamond-Brown Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy at IISS today!🎉
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Poland, Ireland and the three Baltic states are pushing for Gazprombank to be expelled from the SWIFT system in the next round of EU sanctions.
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Inconceivable discussion in the EU on new triggers:
- chemical/nuclear attack in 🇺🇦
- the killing of Zelenskyy
- a large-scale massacre of civilians/attacks on humanitarian corridors
The EU's responses to any of that? Energy ban isn't even the first choice
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- asset freezes on 100 new individuals or entities
- Aeroflot will be banned from landing in the UK
- export controls on the defence sector
- limit on deposits Russians can make to UK bank accounts
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Huawei is using Russia's isolation to lure the remaining IT specialists. It has sharply stepped up recruitment in its Russian division. Huawei's HR expansion has already caused concerns among its Russian competitors.
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The French company Thales Group provided payment protection and PIN-code verification on cards for 20 Russian banks. Today it has announced that it is no longer operating on the Russian market.
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Remember Nord Stream 2, a politically dead project? As the resumption of gas supplies through Nord Stream 1 looks increasingly uncertain, expect Russia to condition new gas supplies via NS2. So much for returning the turbine to take an excuse away from Russia to cut gas supplies.
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Four European companies from Germany, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Ukraine are joining forces to build a hydrogen pipeline through Central Europe, in part through the repurposing of existing gas infrastructure in combination with targeted investments.
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"While neighbouring Germany and the Czech Republic have both reduced Russian gas imports to zero, Austria, much like Hungary, has made little, if any headway in reducing its reliance on Russian gas."
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The new sanctions against Russia are largely punitive and constraining. There is lack of conditionality and clear endgame. Sanctions are most effective when used as leverage strategically communicated to the target. This part is currently missing.
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Plenty of articles that explain how the West can't confiscate 🇷🇺 assets. Very few that ponder over the alternative and its implications: what message does it send to Russia, China and others if the West *doesn't* do it? What implications would this decision have for global rules?
Taxing private profits on the Kremlin’s assets may seem like too little for Ukrainians and others outraged by Russia’s atrocities. But it is the most that the EU will be willing to do
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Behind the scenes of sanctions-making: Belgium declined to vote for the latest package which included sanctions on Russian steel, but didn't veto it. The first time in eight rounds of sanctions that one of the 27 member states had failed to vote in favour.
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A nuanced piece by
@v_milov
on the impact of US sanctions on Russian bonds and their long-term consequences for the country's econ growth. Russia can no longer "pretend that the sanctions concerned only individual companies while Russia in general remained a respectable player."
My oped about the impact of the latest round of Biden's sanctions - in English
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My best spelling mistakes by far: "Gayprom and Natogaz". Writing on the Russian-Ukrainian energy relations has never been easy.
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Several of Russia’s biggest projects in the Arctic are at risk, as sanctions deprive developers of western technology and investments, making Moscow more reliant on China.
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As 🇩🇪Germany is no longer opposed to an embargo on Russian oil, Berlin is now ready to include Sberbank in the EU’s next sanctions package that is currently being finalized.
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Moving to the Iranian-style sanctions pretty fast:
- selected number of 🇷🇺 banks will be disconnected from SWIFT;
- restrictive measures on CBR;
- limit the sale of golden passports;
- asset freezes on 🇷🇺 officials, elites, their families and enablers
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Sanctions are working. Russian Duma seeks to amend its federal law "On Defence" to introduce special economic and military measures to support its "special military operation":
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IEA published a bleak outlook for Russia's gas market:
➡️The share of 🇷🇺gas in EU gas demand is expected to drop to 25% in 2022–its lowest level in more than two decades
➡️Sanctions limiting access to major capital markets and key energy technologies will impair new exploration
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Ukraine is ready to offer Gazprom a 50% discount for shipping natural gas to Europe to increase supply and ease the region’s energy crunch. The discount applies to volumes beyond the contractual 40 bcm.
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Glad to see a rebuttal, advocating for the use of countermeasures to seize Russian aseets.
Plenty of articles that explain how the West can't confiscate 🇷🇺 assets. Very few that ponder over the alternative and its implications: what message does it send to Russia, China and others if the West *doesn't* do it? What implications would this decision have for global rules?
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My first analysis for
@washingtonpost
on the West’s fresh sanctions against Russia: what measures might the US include in its sanctions package? Are they enough to deter Russia? Is the EU ready to join the US’ measures?
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Self-sanctioning meets a sanctions evasion technique: transferring oil cargoes into commercial storage tanks outside Russia - much of it in Rotterdam - is allowed under current sanctions, and this facilitates under-the-radar sales later.
Russian oil exports appear not to have crashed too hard. Insiders suspect sales are “going dark,” with traders buying huge volumes (at 30%+ discounts), then putting the oil in storage to sell to a refiner later, less transparently and without a PR scandal
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American Nvidia stopped selling and extending licences for its software. Problems may start to occur in the work of supercomputers in Sberbank, Yandex and MTS, whose software is based on solutions from Nvidia.
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