Macro Fang
@macrofang
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Partner @PSETrading |🎓 BostonU & @columbia | polygot 🇨🇳🇺🇸🇹🇭🇰🇷
Joined September 2016
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Excited to share that
@PSETrading
has raised $1m in June:
A round led by Angel Investors
Read more about us here:
@PSETrading
is a leading crypto hedge fund focused on capturing BTC upside and various altcoin narratives during each cycle.
Year to date,
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#BTC
dropped from 69K to 59K
Market de-risked ahead of Chair Powell testimony. Also US tech dragged crypto down
BTC从69K下跌到59K
- 市场去风险化：在鲍威尔主席证词之前，投资者减少了风险敞口，影响了BTC价格。
- 美国科技股的下跌也拖累了加密货币市场，包括BTC。
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10 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬 𝐚𝐠𝐨:
- Saw FTX, Three Arrows, Do Kwon crash
- Cut loss and waited on sidelines
- Discouraged with industry & ponzis
4 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬 𝐚𝐠𝐨:
- Made a lot of money in crypto
- Gained thousands of followers for writing
- Started to build key relationships here
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🚨 Powell's Message: No Hurry to Rate Cut
The US central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates until the fight against inflation is confidently won.
#FederalReserve
#Inflation
In a prepared testimony to a House panel, Powell indicates that rate cuts could start "at some
🚨FEDSPEAK - POWELL Testimony
👨💼 Chair Jerome Powell takes the stage for the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.
Wed 3/6, 10:00 AM
In front of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee.
Thu 3/7, 10:00 AM
Addressing the U.S. Senate
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FOMC Day – No Rate Hike Expected
1/ Powell’s tepid push-back against markets pricing-in (and other Fed officials suggesting) rate cuts as early as March indicates two things.
2/ First, Powell would prefer if financial conditions do not loosen further. But second, he also wants
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真心感谢
@lianyanshe
，在我开始写Macro文章之初，帮我转发了九月份我写的预测比特币价格破30K USD的文章。那时，我请求了很多知名网友帮忙转发，但当时还处于大熊市时期 BTC只有26K + 我还是个无名韭菜，所以没有人理我。
再次感谢lian哥的支持，我也希望关注我文章的人能从这波涨幅中获利 (26K 到
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🚨 Post CPI : Why Did
#BTC
Drop?
$MACRO $SPY
1. Trader already primed for soft CPI print, post PPI.
2. Higher shelter inflation and supercore services rising more than anticipated, indicating persistent inflation.
3. Pre-emptive Market Reactions: Investors reacted to PPI
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War & Conflict won't impact
#BTC
Historically, markets tend to shrug off war.
Remember Jan 2020 US airstrike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani? Yup, we weathered that depite potential WWIII
• War = Risk On ⬆️
• Yields rising = Defensives ⬇️
War + Yields rising =
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FOMC Nov 1: Expect Hawish hold 🦅
1/ The rise in ten-year Treasury yields will prevent the Fed from hiking rates this week.
2/ Despite stronger than expected hiring and growth, another solid 160k jobs reading on Friday confirms that labor demand is surpassing supply. Even
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Walks into a HK nail salon
Sees cute girl next to me on binance trading alts. So ofc I had to chat her up
Turns out shes
@jennyqcheng
from Animoca!
Nice to meet you :) 🤍
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🧵
#BTC
can't break 28.5K 📉 if rates remain high, heres why:
1/ High rates = investor are shorting bonds. This is when an investor bets that bond prices will fall. But how does it work? Let's dive in.
#Investing
#Bonds
2/ The process typically involves selling borrowed bonds
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天哪....crypto真的在复苏额
Former FTX general counsel Can Sun is launching a new cryptocurrency exchange, Backpack, and plans to raise funds at a $100M valuation.
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For some reason reading
@0xprerich
tweets has a soothing effect on me.
Maybe it's hopium? Perhaps it's his willingness to "act like a fool" to make his followers entertained/ happy during difficult times?
Anyhow, I really appreciate how man remains chatty during crappy markets.
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July unlocks (worth bookmarking):
$ENA: 0.92% ($14.89M) - JULY 07
$XAI: 71.59% ($84.30M) - JULY 09
$IO: 2.22% ($6.61M) - JULY 11
$IMX: 2.17% ($47.09M) - JULY 12
$APT: 2.58% ($77.92M) - JULY 12
$OP: 0.92% ($17.40M) - JULY 15
$STRK: 4.92% ($41.54M) - JULY 15
$RNDR: 0.20%
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真人真事：今天见了位 crypto 网友。
网友：哇 原来你是女生！我一直以为你是男的，头像是AI生成。
原来你跟照片长得一样呀！
我：..... 🙏🙏🙏
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March FOMC: Less Hawkish Than Expected
So, the latest FOMC meeting leaned towards the dovish side, and here's the lowdown:
- They're planning on cutting rates by 75 basis points throughout the year.
- They're expecting the Core PCE inflation to cool down to 2.6% by the end of
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我得承认，这波rally让我被搁置在一旁。
投资确实更像是一门艺术而不是科学。随波逐流总是比逆水行舟更容易。
决定不追逐这次的恐失机会行情。而是耐心等待在一旁，寻找机会。
不交易也是一种交易。🙏
Let me admit. I was sidelined by this rally.
Investing is truly more an art than
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CPI PREVIEW 👀: Not Bearish for
#BTC
1/ Core CPI is likely to rise 0.30%MoM in November. Good news: this is a stronger increase than in October but not strong enough to change the message from Chair Powell at Wednesday’s
#FOMC
meeting. So - not Bearish for
#BTC
2/ Powell will
MACRO Releases - Tues, Dec 12 🗓
Time: 8.30 am ET.🕛
🇺🇸 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
🇺🇸 Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
🇺🇸 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
🇺🇸 Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
宏观数据发布 - 周二，12月12日 🗓
时间：美国东部时间上午8:30。🕛
🇺🇸 消费者价格指数 (年率) (11月)
🇺🇸 核心消费者价格指数 (年率) (11月)
🇺🇸
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Macro 101: What's Bear 🐻Steepening? 🧵
1/ Bear steepening is a term used in the financial market, specifically the bond market, to describe a situation where the yield curve becomes steeper.
#BearSteepening
2/ The yield curve represents the relationship between the interest
@FinanceLancelot
1. Bear steepening(bear trap)
2. Steep Inversion again(stocks go up)
3. Bull steepening(market crash)
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Hawkish Fed Mester - Surprisingly Dovish ✅
Cleveland Fed Mester (usually Hawkish) surprisingly supported a plan to cut interest rates by 0.75% this year, despite expecting a higher future rate of 3.0%. This indicates a keenness to start reducing rates.
The Fed plans for three
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What’s Driving
#Bitcoin
Prices?
Lately, BTC prices have been solely driven by ETF flows.
We've seen about $12 billion pour in since the start, but now things are slowing down, and it's messing with Bitcoin's price climb.
Luckily, Macro looks good ✅
- lThe big money folks
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1/ 预计周三的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议将见证鲍威尔主席对沃勒州长观点的回应。
2/目前观察到的经济增长运行在潜能之上，而通胀虽有所放缓，但仍超过设定目标。
3/这些状况使得美联储有望谨慎考虑降低政策利率的路径。
4/
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Keep in mind that it's normal for prices to drop by about 35% sometimes, and this will happen again.
A bull market, when prices are going up, will always test you and try to shake you off.
#BTC
$MACRO $SPY
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🚨US Oct. PPI Fell 0.5%, Below All Estimates
• Median est. 0.1% (-0.3% to 0.4%); 52 estimates
•Final demand rose 1.3% y/y; est. up 1.9%
• Final demand ex food, energy unchanged m/m: est. up 0.3%
• Final demand ex food, energy rose 2.4% y/y vs est. up 2.7%
• Final demand
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Market Volatile but I'm up ⬆️
Oct 2nd week PNL: +35K USD
Follow to see how I did it!
#BTC
#Ethererum
Turbulent Markets but I'm up ⬆️
Oct 1st week PNL: +41K USD
Follow to see how I did it!
#BTC
#Ethererum
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Equities so weak... but BTC looks like it's on steroids
美股弱的一批。。但BTC像吃了激素一样
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Macro releases that will move
#BTC
price this week.
ECONOMIC Data release (HK Time)
@PSETrading
:
Tues, October 10, 2023:
- 📉 At 22:00, keep an eye on Wholesale Inventories MoM Aug F, expected to drop by -0.10%.
#EconomicData
Wed, October 11, 2023:
- 📈 At 20:30, PPI Final
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@tedtalksmacro
sigh... we've been trained like pavlovian dogs to buy when rates drop... thanks to the Fed
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#BTC
: Let me explain why I'm still bullish after
#CPI
.
@PSETrading
Sure, US core CPI came in hot. But, Fed might not hike rates because:
1/ Flattening of U.S. Curves:
The "U.S. curves" are flattening. This term refers to the difference in interest rates on short-term and
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最新输出 from Macrofang ✍️
🔖FN 荐读🔖
【PSE Trading：比特币 ETF 虚假，但乐观情绪真实】
尽管 2023 年 10 月 16 日 BlackRock ETF 的消息虚假，BTC 仍上涨。
@PSETrading
#BTC
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❌Bad for
#BTC
Two-year yields jumped after nonfarm payrolls rose far more than expected⬆️⬆️⬆️
This justifies the view that the Fed can keep yields higher for longer as the employment market remains resilient.
SOFR futures yields are more than 6 bps higher on the day, having
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funny how everyone says they will "buy on dip"
but nobody wants to buy when the "dip" actually comes 🫡
有趣的是，每个人都说他们会在“回调”时买入
但“回调”真的来临时，根本没人敢买 🫡
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MACRO Releases - Tues, Dec 12 🗓
Time: 8.30 am ET.🕛
🇺🇸 CPI (YoY) (Nov)
🇺🇸 Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
🇺🇸 CPI (MoM) (Nov)
🇺🇸 Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
宏观数据发布 - 周二，12月12日 🗓
时间：美国东部时间上午8:30。🕛
🇺🇸 消费者价格指数 (年率) (11月)
🇺🇸 核心消费者价格指数 (年率) (11月)
🇺🇸
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Great! Can't wait to swim back home this weekend
Several areas of the Bangkok metropolitan area, which covers Bangkok, Nonthaburi and Samut Prakan provinces, were inundated on Tuesday evening after hours of torrential rain.
Read more:
#ThailandNews
#Bangkok
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🚨The Week Ahead: Fedspeak
Fed heads are out of blackout and we have a full schedule of them this week.
The economic calendar is quite bare this week, so volatility will likely be generated by Feds speak.
🔔Note: Powell, is scheduled to speak twice this week. Brace for
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Is this retard
@zhusu
ever not bullish?
Yes, policy combo from China = somewhat bullish
BUT this does not = policy pivot
Housing buyback relending still way below expectations
(dont forget how 3AC blew up from being retardedly "long only")
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NYCB Isn't Indicative of CRE Crisis
1. The KRE is down ~4% due to recent events surrounding NYCB and Aozora Bank, which have led to heightened concerns about Commercial Real Estate (CRE); however, this reaction seems overdone.
2. Despite pressures on CRE valuations,
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Nov 1 FOMC 写了一篇✍🏻️ - Macrofang
$BTC is More Bullish after
#FOMC
The Fed has decided to leave policy rates unchanged on Wednesday at 2 PM, as anticipated. Impact of the market was immediate. Stocks and
#BTC
rallied — risk sentiment ON.
#cryptocurrency
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No Pivot Profits Left in 2024? 🧵
1/ Last week's Federal Reserve move accelerated market predictions, with investors already banking on a downward shift in rates.
The fight against inflation is perceived to be won, leading to a rally in both stocks & bonds.
However, with
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A wise man once told me:
"Bears are right, but Bulls make money"
Well, I'd rather make money 😇
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We still think BTC poised for 100K this Cycle.
Heres why ⬇️
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市场受到了美联储“较高较长时间政策”信号的推动 下一次的利率上调在九月并未实现，这一预测已被充分计入市场中，但是真正重要的则是言论基调。
再次出现的鹰派言论本应意料之中，因为这本身就是一种政策工具。
The overnight markets were influenced by the FOMC's indication of a 'higher for
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What to do after Jacksonhole 🧵
1/🔵
#MarketInsights
my perspective: While bad data might seem promising, it's not always good news for investors. Despite the positive data surprises in 2023 driving an upside, softer growth could be looming.
#MarketTrends
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Non Farm Payrolls
$SPY $QQQ
• US payrolls rise 272,000, smashing estimates
• Blowout report pushes back Fed rate-cut bets
• Unemployment rate unexpectedly rises; wage gains still strong
•Stock futures dive; Treasury yields jump
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ISM - Hotter than Expected
$MACRO $SPY
The ISM Manufacturing index, which measures the health of the manufacturing sector, increased in March, showing growth for the first time since Fall 2022.
This jump was mainly due to a big boost in production levels. Although there were
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🇺🇸 Fedspeak Upcoming
1/5: Central bank officials across Europe are resisting quick interest rate cuts, a stance that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to echo. Stoxx 600 is experiencing flat trading and US equity futures remain unchanged.
2/5: Yields on 10-year Treasuries are
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FOMC 11月1日：预计鹰派维持利率
1/ 十年期国债收益率的上涨将阻止联邦储备委员会本周加息。
2/ 尽管就业和经济增长超出预期，上周五又有160,000个稳健的就业数据显示劳动力需求超过供应。即使考虑到30,400名罢工工人，这些数字说明了问题。
3/
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The reason why
#BTC
is so strong... is because it's considered "digitalgold".
I mean just look at the
#SPX
vs
#BTC
BTC is holding up so well.. considering what's going on
@JC_Investment
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Tune in Tonight 9.30pm HKT to hear me chat about the current markets
📢 Join our exclusive webinar on June 26!
🚀
@macrofang
, Partner at PSE Trading, will reveal top crypto market insights for 2024. 🪙
📈 Don't miss out—register now and stay ahead!
#Crypto
#Webinar
#Investing
#CryptoTrends
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Honestly.. looking back I should've just taken the HODL approach with Crypto, like I did with stocks.
Overtrading and over-rotating always slips away profits...
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今天，BlackRock新的ETF代码在DTCC网站上被移除后，比特币的价格回落。
随后，SEC指控Blackrock未能披露投资，Blackrock同意支付250万美元的罚款。
😅
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Please be safe at EthCC
Someone just broke into my car and left Cardano
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Portfolio Performance
• Sept 12: $448,000
• Oct 12: $812,000
PNL: ⬆️$364,000
ROI: ⬆️ 81.3%
Investment Thesis: Mainly shorted BTC, ETH, SOL. Short term, obvious weakness in the market
@0xprerich
hows my competitor doing 👀
Market Volatile but I'm up ⬆️
Oct 2nd week PNL: +35K USD
Follow to see how I did it!
#BTC
#Ethererum
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$SPY $QQQ
#BTC
Fed Waller's speech was Hawkish - BUT, rate cuts may still happen in June/July
Waller indicated that interest rate cuts would not start until there's clear evidence of slowing inflation.
This stance is more conservative than Chair Powell's view, who noted recent
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positive affirmations:
I am the carrier of my own light.
I am the carrier of my own strength.
I always bounce back from setbacks.
Always.
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The more people hating on
#ETH
the better I feel about my bags.
Best time to accumulate is when others aren't. 🙏
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#FOMC
Day: Expect Removal of Hiking Bias
1/The FOMC meeting on Wednesday is expected to see Chairman Powell echo Governor Waller's thoughts.
2/ Observations indicate growth running above potential, and inflation is slowing but still over the target.
3/ These conditions allow
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MACRO Releases - Wed, December 13 🗓
Time: 8.30 am ET.🕛
🇺🇸 PPI (YoY) (Nov)
🇺🇸 Core PPI (YoY) (Nov)
Time: 2.00 - 2.30 pm ET.🕛
🇺🇸 FOMC Statement ⚠️
🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision ⚠️
宏观经济数据发布 - 周三，12月13日 🗓
时间：上午8.30（美东时间）🕛
🇺🇸 PPI（同比）（11月）
🇺🇸
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ok
#XRP
meeting cancelled today! That dino coin can finally go down and market can now recover
Inshallah
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MACRO WEEK AHEAD (EST ⏰)
MONDAY
🇺🇸 10:00 Factory Orders (MoM) (Oct)
🇺🇸 10:00 Durables Excluding Defense (Oct)
🇺🇸 10:00 Durables Excluding Transport (Oct)
TUESDAY
🇬🇧 19:01 (previous day) BRC Retail Sales (Nov)
🇨🇳 20:45 (previous day) Caixin Services PMI (Nov)
🇦🇺 22:30 (previous
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Can we sue the SEC for market manipulation? 🙄
@GaryGensler
This tweet was definitely an "insider job".
If the hacker wanted to profit off this event, they could have max short and said "ETF denied".
我们能否因为市场操纵起诉美国证券交易委员会（SEC）？🙄
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Sad that price action is now dictated by institutional flows
$65 million in net US spot bitcoin ETF outflows as a 19-day inflow streak ends.
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2/🏞️ The recent
#JacksonHole
meeting underscored potential downside risks to growth amidst inflation's upside risks. A weaker labor market might not be probable but necessary for the
#FederalReserve
's inflation goals.
#EconomicTrends
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Overall, the FOMC statement was balanced, with no specific mention of September. Clearly, Powell didn't want to prematurely "hype" the market.
Only during the Q&A did it become clear that a September rate cut is on the table.
The Fed is likely to lower rates at the next
FOMC = In-Line with Expectations ✅
Market Reaction: Neutral 😐
$MACRO $SPY $BTC
- Fed keeps rates steady. Nothing new here, market expected this outcome
- Powell hints at possible rate cut at Sept meeting.
- FOMC is watching risks closely - labor market and inflation
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