Luke Arkins
@luke_arkins
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Mariners Consigliere newsletter | New York guy in love with a Seattle gal | Retired Naval Officer | Stats nerd | Baseball is the best sport |
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Pinned Tweet
With great sadness, I must report the passing of my dear love, Carrie. Thank you to all who supported us during her battle. She appreciated all of you, as do I.
Carrie loved her
#Mariners
,
#Seahawks
,
#SeaKraken
,
#Zags
, and oh yes, her
#Sonics
. Best of all, she loved me the most.
293
17
1K
Teams hit by a pitch most often this season:
SEA - 85 👀
NYM - 80
MIN - 73
OAK - 70
TBR - 69
CIN - 69
LAA - 64
SFG - 64
WSN - 63
Note:
#Mariners
pitchers have hit the fewest hitters (34) this season.
1/4
43
98
2K
Fewest runs allowed since April 11.
SEA - 26 👀
NYY - 44
MIL - 44
CHC - 45
CIN - 45
LAD - 45
TOR - 46
WSN - 46
PHI - 47
KCR - 50
ATL - 50
#Mariners
19
109
2K
UPDATE: AL win-loss records since July 1...
SEA 31-13 👀
BAL 28-15*
BOS 25-16
HOU 25-18
MIN 24-18
TOR 24-18
TEX 23-19 👀
DET 22-21
CLE 20-24
TBR 18-23
LAA 17-24
KCR 17-27
NYY 15-28
OAK 12-27*
CHW 12-27*
*Still playing
#Mariners
1/2
12
93
1K
The
#Mariners
are…
21-7 without Jarred Kelenic
13-4 without Paul Sewald
13-4 with Dominic Canzone/Josh Rojas
6-3 without JP Crawford
11-3 since Bryan Woo pitched
5-1 since Tom Murphy played
I’m just spitballin’. But it appears to me the M’s are playing great *team* baseball.
25
41
1K
Fewest home runs allowed by a bullpen this season...
SEA - 8 👀
MIN - 15
LAA - 16
BAL - 16
HOU - 16
NYY - 17
PIT - 17
STL - 17
TEX - 18
CHC - 18
CIN - 18
PHI - 18
SDP - 18
#Mariners
21
63
1K
Most quality starts with two-or-fewer runs scored by the starter’s offense…
SEA - 28 👀 👀
PIT - 20
TBR - 16
DET - 15
WSN - 15
CHC - 14
HOU - 14
NYM - 14
OAK - 14
MIN - 14
ATL - 14
CIN - 14
#Mariners
have a 6-22 record in these games.
23
69
969
Thank you to the
@Mariners
for recognizing my wife Carrie, my favorite
#Mariners
fan, who recently succumbed to cancer.
A special thank to
@Kevin_Martinez
and his staff for making myself, plus Carrie’s friends and family, feel so welcome at T-Mobile Park tonight.
33
23
963
Food for thought…
SEA hitters - 109 HBP (most in MLB)
SEA pitchers - 55 HBP (26th)
HOU hitters - 72 HBP (12th)
HOU pitchers - 74 HBP (10th)
HOU pitchers have hit 10 SEA batters
SEA pitchers have hit 5 HOU batters
#Mariners
Dusty Baker: "I’m tired of our guys getting hit. It makes guys a lot bolder when they don’t have to hit.”
93
14
421
22
78
786
Through 111 games, the
#Mariners
have the same record (59-52) as the 2022 M’s had though 111 games.
8
47
746
Most home runs while playing catcher since the beginning of 2022…
Cal Raleigh - 40 👀
JT Realmuto - 37
Sean Murphy - 36
Salvador Perez - 31
Willson Contreras - 29
Will Smith - 28
Travis d'Arnaud - 27
#Mariners
7
40
711
38,254 at T-Mobile Park to watch the
#Mariners
play an NL cellar dweller on a random Tuesday night. It’s almost as if a winning team attracts more fans to the ballpark.
9
31
707
I know a lot of
#Mariners
fans don't care for Diego Castillo. But I'd like to point out he faced 222 batters in the regular season and hit two.
This ESPN booth failed to mention this point.
21
36
692
Since an embarrassing 15-4 loss to Tampa Bay on June 30, the
#Mariners
have an MLB-best 22-10 record.
Games gained by the M’s on their AL competition since June 30…
BAL - 0 games
HOU - 2.5
MIN - 3.0
TOR - 3.0
TEX - 4.0
BOS - 4.0
CLE - 6.5
NYY - 8.5
LAA - 8.5
TBR - 9.5
8
41
669
Most wins by a
#Mariners
team in August…
20 - 2001
19 - 2023 👀
17 - 2022
17 - 2014
16 - 2016
16 - 1999
16 - 1995
5
24
638
Julio Rodriguez - 21-years-old
Jarred Kelenic - 22
Andres Munoz - 23
Matt Brash - 24
Taylor Trammell - 24
Logan Gilbert - 25
Abraham Toro - 25
Cal Raleigh - 25
Future looking bright,
#Mariners
.
30
26
629
Most shutouts this season…
ATL - 15
SEA - 13 👀
CLE - 13
TOR - 12
TBR - 12
SDP - 12
LAD - 12
MIL - 12
#Mariners
1
12
570
Dusty Baker expressing irritation about Astros hitters getting plunked by pitches prompted me jump down the HBP rabbit hole...
#Mariners
1/8
Dusty: "I'm tired of our guys getting hit. It makes guy a lot bolder when they don't have to hit, you know what I mean? In the National League could do something about it with the guy who threw the pitch...with the DH, guys get bold."
43
8
173
29
71
557
Since July 1...
Most runs scored/game:
HOU - 5.3
BOS - 5.2
SEA - 5.2👀
BAL - 5.1
TEX - 5.0
Lowest runs allowed/game:
SEA - 3.6👀
TOR - 3.7
BAL - 3.7
CLE - 3.9
BOS - 4.5
TEX - 4.5
Highest run differential:
SEA - 75 👀
BAL - 65
TOR - 35
BOS - 34
TEX - 24
HOU - 13
#Mariners
4
46
547
Highest SO% since 1921...
SEA (2024) - 28.3%👀
DET (2020) - 27.3%
TBR (2020) - 26.9%
CHC (2021) - 26.7%
MIL (2020) - 26.6%
MIN (2023) - 26.6%
DET (2019) - 26.4%
SDP (2019) - 26.3%
CHW (2018) - 26.3%
OAK (2024) - 26.2%
MIA (2021) - 26.2%
SEA (2023) - 25.9%👀
#Mariners
38
34
554
Best record in MLB since June 30…
SEA (18-10) 👀
BAL (18-10)
BOS (16-9)
HOU (17-10)
SDP (17-10)
CHC (17-11)
LAD (15-10)
ATL (15-10)
#Mariners
4
35
530
Only the Dodgers have a better record than the
#Mariners
since the beginning of July...
LAD (28-11)
SEA (28-13) 👀
BAL (26-15)
HOU (25-15)
ATL (24-15)
CHC (24-16)
TEX (23-16)
BOS (22-16)
PHI (23-17)
MIN (22-17)
TOR (22-17)
MIL (22-18)
WSN (22-19)
SDP (21-19)
1/2
7
26
519
Josh Rojas since joining the
#Mariners
...
62 games
189 PA's
7 doubles
5 HR
7 SB
.282 AVG
.339 OBP
.408 SLG
10
14
514
NERD ALERT: The
#Mariners
are averaging 2.4 runs/game. But their .342 xwOBA (quality & quantity of contact) is 67 points above their .275 wOBA. This suggests to me the M's have hit into some bad luck and stellar defense.
It also suggests that run production should improve soon.
28
42
496
First basemen Robinson Canó trying to tag Dee Strange-Gordon on a pickoff attempt by Taijuan Walker. How about that
#Mariners
fans?
8
11
498
When Scott Servais pulled Bryan Woo after 66 pitches, I saw a few dissatisfied
#Mariners
fans suggesting on this website that pulling starters so “early” has led to M’s relievers throwing too many pitches.
Fun fact: The M’s bullpen has thrown the fewest pitches in MLB.
23
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490
Bold prediction:
#Mariners
fans will eventually be grateful that Luis Torrens made the Opening Day roster.
29
5
471
Number of times a team’s starting pitcher has gone 6+ innings and allowed *ZERO* runs in a game this season....
SEA - 30 👀
PHI - 23
HOU - 23
PIT - 21
KCR - 21
MIL - 21
NYY - 21
ATL - 19
SDP - 18
OAK - 18
CHC – 18
#Mariners
5
25
489
Jarred Kelenic is 23-years-old. He has 11 home runs, 25 doubles, 13 stolen bases in 102 games, and is league-average or better in…
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
wOBA
xwOBA
wRC+
OPS+
Not a bust…
24
14
482
Highest pitcher bWAR (2007-14)…
Félix Hernández - 41.3 👀
Clayton Kershaw - 40.8
Justin Verlander - 37.9
Cole Hamels - 37
Cliff Lee - 36.7
Zack Greinke - 35.2
Roy Halladay - 33.6
Mark Buehrle - 33.3
CC Sabathia - 33.2
Jered Weaver - 31.5
Adam Wainwright - 31
#Mariners
3
24
447
#Mariners
with most starts of 7+ innings and two-or-fewer earned runs allowed with the M’s scoring two-or-fewer...
Félix Hernández - 73 👀
Randy Johnson - 32
Jamie Moyer - 29
Jim Beattie - 19
Mike Moore - 16
Freddy García - 16
Mark Langston - 15
Matt Young - 14
Erik Hanson - 14
9
27
450
AL West in July…
SEA (16-9)
HOU (14-10)
TEX (11-13)
LAA (11-11)
OAK (9-14)
Number of games the
#Mariners
have gained on their AL West rivals this month…
HOU 1.5
LAA 3.5
TEX 4.5
OAK 6.0
4
20
447
Taylor Trammell has just 22 PA's with the
#Mariners
. So, it's way too early to make proclamations. But Trammell's *significantly* lower strikeout rate is a potential good news story, if he can sustain it.
2021 - 42.1 SO%
2022 - 22.7 SO%
I'm rooting for Trammell to succeed.
11
6
442
Ken Griffey Jr. & Julio Rodriguez through their first three games in the majors.
LOL!
#Mariners
18
34
435
April 8-28: Julio Rodriguez sees 16 called strikes that were outside the Baseball Savant GameDay strike zone.
April 28: Scott Servais ejected for protesting strike zone used for Julio.
April 29-today: In 10 games, only one outside-the-zone called strike for Julio.
#Mariners
8
17
426
Sending Jarred Kelenic to AAA is the right move for the
#Mariners
and his development.
Having an opportunity to reset in the minors is the right move. To me, this move is more about process than stats.
Personally, I'm rooting hard for the kid to succeed. If you aren't, why not?
26
11
424
Fun fact: Dylan Moore is the only active player to play 15+ games at 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF, and DH since Moore’s MLB debut in 2019.
Fun fact II: Moore is the only player in
#Mariners
franchise history to accomplish this feat.
Moore also pitched an inning as a rookie.
11
28
431
This kind type of reply from random fans are in lock-step with the unacceptable harassment Mitch Garver (and other athletes) receive on this website.
Blocking a toxic account like this one seems like the only way to deter its behavior.
67
16
407
Edwin Díaz and Andrés Muñoz through their first 98 games as
#Mariners
(Muñoz’s current total)…
8
25
394
#Mariners
who’ve pitch 7+ innings without allowing a run in a postseason game:
Luis Castillo 10/7/22 - 7.1 innings
George Kirby 10/15/22 - 7.0 innings
That’s it, that’s the list.
1
16
393
AL leaders since All-Star break
Hits
Julio Rodríguez 68 👀
Alex Bregman 65
Teoscar Hernández 62 👀
Bobby Witt Jr. 60
Gleyber Torres 58
Steven Kwan 58
Kerry Carpenter 58
Luis Rengifo 57
Whit Merrifield 56
Marcus Semien 56
Ryan Mountcastle 55
Jeremy Peña 55
#Mariners
1/12
3
14
394
Most losses despite the rotation delivering a quality start…
CWS - 18
SEA - 17 👀
DET - 17
PIT - 17
TOR - 16
#Mariners
11
17
399
Joe DiMaggio
13 years
1,736 games
321 pitchers faced
Julio Rodríguez
3 years
363 games
493 pitchers faced
#Mariners
8
18
391
Best July win-loss records in MLB...
BOS (14-5)
MIL (14-7)
SEA (14-8) 👀
BAL (14-8)
MIN (13-8)
HOU (13-8)
TOR (12-8)
LAD (12-8)
NYM (11-8)
CLE (12-9)
#Mariners
1/2
6
17
380
“If Teoscar Hernandez can get going.”
Hernández *is* going IMO.
Since April 4…
15 games
63 PA
19 hits
2 doubles
4 home runs
.317 AVG
#Mariners
4
10
375
Pitching staffs with the highest strikeout rates in Spring Training:
Padres 30.2%
#Mariners
29.4%
Mets 28.8%
Red Sox 28%
Brewers 26.8%
Twins 26%
Angels 25.9%
Braves 25.9%
Marlins 25.8%
Blue Jays 25.6%
Tigers 25.2%
4
20
375
I have my reservations about Blake Snell. But my gosh. How can’t the
#Mariners
sign him when even Mike Tirico is saying Snell wants to sign with Seattle?
10
12
354
All three players acquired in the deal that sent Paul Sewald to Arizona last summer is in tonight’s
#Mariners
starting lineup: Ryan Bliss, Dominic Canzone, and Josh Rojas.
1
9
356
Jarred Kelenic was optioned today and is playing LF for the Rainiers this evening. You gotta like his attitude.
#Mariners
11
3
345
Most hitters with 150+ plate appearances and an above-average OPS+
SEA - 9 👀
TBR - 9
ATL - 9
MIN - 8
BAL - 8
TEX - 8
SFG - 8
TOR - 8
STL - 8
BOS - 7
ARI - 7
PHI - 7
LAD - 7
CHC - 7
LAA - 6
SDP - 6
CIN - 6
HOU - 6
WSN - 5
NYM - 5
League-average OPS+ always = 100
#Mariners
1/2
3
14
338
Jesse Winker over the last 30 days...
84 PA
5 HR
15 BB
14 SO
.246 AVG
.381 OBP
.478 SLG
.859 OPS
.377 wOBA
153 wRC+
Pretty, pretty good.
#Mariners
9
21
330
Stats and MLB rankings of
#Mariners
second basemen (Mar-Jul)
4 HR (29th)
.188 (30th)
.286 OBP (25th)
.268 SLG (30th)
.255 wOBA (29th)
62 wRC+ (28th)
August
5 HR (T-2nd)
.282 AVG (11th)
.365 OBP (9th)
.519 SLG (5th)
.378 wOBA (7th)
147 wRC+ (4th)
1/2
5
6
324
Last time the
#Mariners
scored 11 runs in a game was July 26, 2021 vs the Astros. M’s won 11-8 after being down 6-0 in the first inning.
Perhaps you remember it?
I’m sure Dylan Moore does.
6
11
315
Highest AL rookie position player fWAR:
Gunnar Henderson - 3.1
Josh Jung - 2.7
Luke Raley - 2.5
José Caballero - 2.3 👀
Edouard Julien - 2.0
Highest AL rookie pitcher fWAR:
Tanner Bibee - 2.4
Hunter Brown - 2.1
Logan Allen - 1.7
JP France - 1.7
Bryce Miller - 1.5 👀
#Mariners
2
14
309
Highest average four-seam fastball velocities in Wild Card round:
Andres Munoz - 101.9 mph 👀
Ryan Helsley - 100.4
Matt Brash - 99.8 👀
Jacob deGrom - 99.4
Jose Alvarado - 99.2
Edwin Diaz - 99.1
Robert Suarez - 98.9
Luis Castillo - 98.6 👀
George Kirby - 97.8 👀
#Mariners
3
19
313
Another fun comp. Félix Hernández and George Kirby through their first two seasons.
Obviously, Kirby has more season-two remaining. But the number of starts are almost identical.
#Mariners
9
25
313
I've been mulling over the
#Mariners
struggles with advancing/scoring base runners. A long, but easily digestible stat thread for your consideration.
All stats are via Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted...
1/17
34
43
313
UPDATE: The
#Mariners
currently have ZERO hitters with 200+ plate appearances with the team, who also have an average-or-better OBP *and* SLG.
Six teams have seven...the Astros have five.
The only other club with ZERO...the White Sox.
9
24
312
It seems problematic from a short- and long-term perspective when a catcher leads his team in games played and plate appearances.
#Mariners
16
16
305
Jarred Kelenic’s strikeout rate by month:
May - 22.4%
June - 56.3%
July - 38.6%
August - 13.2%
#Mariners
5
8
293
#Mariners
rotation stats and MLB rankings…
3.81 ERA (5th in MLB)
3.81 FIP (1st)
23.6 SO% (10th)
5.5 BB% (1st)
.233 AVG (1st)
.279 OBP (1st)
.393 SLG (1st)
.290 wOBA (1st)
.306 xwOBA (3rd)
11.5 fWAR (3rd)
Pretty, pretty good.
7
19
287
When JP Crawford returns from the IL, I suspect the
#Mariners
will make room for him by removing a left-handed hitter from the big-league roster. I know who I’d select.
24
3
284
The
#Mariners
outscored the Orioles 31-18 this season. Yet, the M’s were 2-4 vs Baltimore.
Baseball!
11
19
283
The stats of Félix Hernández and Justin Verlander were amazingly similar through their first 12 big-league seasons.
#Mariners
10
25
277
Most
#Mariners
home run since June 1…
Mike Ford - 7 👀
Teoscar Hernández - 6
JP Crawford - 5 👀 👀
Eugenio Suárez - 4
Tom Murphy - 4
Julio Rodríguez - 3
Cal Raleigh - 3
Ty France - 2
Jared Kelenic - 1
José Caballero - 1
AJ Pollock - 1
Kolten Wong - 1
Dylan Moore - 1
7
10
276
To me, the difference maker in the SEA-HOU ALDS has been effectiveness of the bullpens.
SEA - 4.1 innings / 6 runs allowed
HOU - 8.1 innings/ 1 run allowed
#Mariners
23
19
274
Update…
#Mariners
quality starts in 2022…
Robbie Ray - 17
Marco Gonzales - 17 👀
Luis Castillo* - 15
Logan Gilbert - 14
George Kirby - 9
Chris Flexen - 9
* Includes time with Reds
5
20
269
JP Crawford’s hard-hit rate, by season…
2017 - 24.2%
2018 - 34.1%
2019 - 24.8%
2020 - 31.1%
2021 - 30.6%
2022 - 29.7%
2023 - 41.3% 👀 👀
MLB average hard-hit rate = 39.6%
#Mariners
2
7
270
AL West since infamous Kendall Graveman-Abraham Toro trade on July 27…
SEA 20-15
OAK 18-17
HOU 17-17
LAA 18-19
TEX 12-23
The
#Mariners
also have the fourth best record in the AL since July 27…
TBR 26-10
NYY 26-11
TOR 24-15
SEA 20-15
CHW 19-17
CLE 19-17
8
32
261
Ever since Robbie Ray reintroduced his 2-seamer, he’s been among the best starters in MLB.
SP’s since June 12:
Lowest ERA
Shohei Ohtani (0.00)
Robbie Ray (0.91) 👀
Dylan Cease (0.93)
Highest fWAR
Shohei Ohtani (1.4)
Robbie Ray (1.2) 👀
Justin Verlander (1.0)
1/3
2
26
258
The
#Mariners
have scored two-or-fewer runs in 37% of their games this season. They are 6-43 in those low-scoring affairs.
9
34
272
I’ll post a piece about the
#Mariners
reported signing of Mitch Garver and what it might mean for the team once Christmas is over.
For now, a comp of Garver and Tom Murphy over the last three seasons…
13
12
261
I assume Paul Sewald is still rehabbing. But Eugenio Suárez merits a hearty thank you from the
#Mariners
this evening. If Sewald is there, he too deserves recognition by the team.
Both Sewald and Suárez were so pivotal to the M’s ending the drought.
Just my two cents.
5
8
268
I’m old enough to remember when some fans wanted the
#Mariners
to trade Logan Gilbert at the deadline.
18
3
267
Most quality starts after today’s action…
PIT - 19
SEA - 18. 👀
TOR - 18
CHC - 18
MIN - 17
CLE - 17
#Mariners
4
9
262
#Mariners
with fastest 2022 sprint speeds…
Julio Rodriguez 29.8 ft/sec
Sam Haggerty 28.9
Cooper Hummel 28.9 👀
Teoscar Hernández 28.6
Dylan Moore 28.3
AJ Pollock 27.8
Jarred Kelenic 27.2
Taylor Trammell 27
JP Crawford 26.8
Cal Raleigh 26.8
Elite = 30+
MLB avg = 27
27
8
263
Julio Rodríguez’s stats over the last 30 days (and MLB rankings)….
44 hits (1st in MLB)
11 doubles (T-1st)
8 HR (T-7th)
10 stolen bases (3rd)
29 RBI (T-3rd)
.361 AVG (T-4th)
.405 OBP (11th)
.648 SLG (9th)
.438 wOBA (6th)
190 wRC+ (6th)
#Mariners
0
15
261