Jacek Lorek
@lorek14728
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Macro analyst@JLResearch, Coach@Instytut Kryptografii, Business cycles, Chartist, On-chain metrics "Don't predict the unpredictable, just react on time"
Warsaw
Joined July 2023
BTCÐ UPDATE: If the current declines are a surprise to you, you should remember that I recently warned against them. My conviction about the declines came not only from Technical Analysis, but especially from my on-chain algo (see attached charts). The sell and buy signals in this algorithm have an 88% success rate. Where will the declines go? For BTC, it is a wide range of $88-94K. However, I will look for the final signal of the end of the correction in my algo, when there will be a renewed buy signal. If you would like to use my algo, there will soon be such an opportunity. Polish-speaking persons will find more information on my website, which will be launched by the end of February. Others will be able to gain access through my US based partner. Stay tuned.
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Inflacja CPI w USA: Podwyższona inflacja w tej fazie cyklu koniunkturalnego jest czymś zdecydowanie naturalnym. Podobnie było w 2000,2007 oraz na przełomie 2019/2020. Nie oznacza to wcale jastrzębiego Fedu. Jestem przekonany, że wkrótce Fed powróci do obniżek stóp pomimo uporczywie podwyższonej inflacji, a powodem tego będzie słabnący rynek pracy. Co do samej reakcji na dzisiejszy odczyt, dla risk assets to była okazja do zakupu, natomiast wzrost rentowności obligacji również wpisuje się w tę fazę cyklu. Dzięki temu szybciej dojdzie do powrotu spread 30Y-3M powyżej +0,8%. Kiedy to nastąpi, od tego momentu zostanie nam max. 4 miesiące do recesji, patrz 4 takie poprzednie przypadki (tzw. czerwone kropki z mojego wpisu sprzed 6 dni, który przekleiłem - wpis poniżej). Innymi słowy mamy już fioletową kropkę, a dane o inflacji powinny wygenerować ostatnie przed recesyjne wydarzenie – czerwoną kropkę.
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Yield curve: When the yield curve returns to so-called “normalcy” after having been inverted, the best way, in my opinion, to track this process is through the spread between 30-year bonds and 3-month bonds (30Y-3M). There are 2 levels of spread between these bonds, which tells us a lot. These levels are: - +0.6% when previously negative values were present, and, - +0.8% in an analogous situation. In the attached charts (Charts 1 and 2), I have marked the moments when the +0.6 and +0.8% levels were reached with purple and red dots, respectively (purple and red signals). My observations show that when we first get a purple signal, we can start counting down to the next recession. I'm writing about this because we just recently got a purple signal after a curve inversion of more than a year. According to my observations, the time intervals between the purple , red signals and the recessions look like this (Chart 3). With all this in mind, we can expect: - A red signal in early March - A recession around June
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BTC UPDATE: BTC, after breaking out of the symmetrical triangle (purple lines) upwards, has every chance of reaching the $102-103K range. The key question, however, is what next? If you want to increase your chances in the right answer to this question, use my ALGO. More on this soon on my website which will be launched by the end of February.
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Aktualizacja BTC: BTC po wybiciu z trójkąta symetrycznego (fioletowe linie) w górę ma wszelkie szanse na osiągnięcie zasięgu 102-103K USD. Kluczowym jednak pytaniem jest co dalej? Jeżeli chcesz zwiększyć swoje szanse we właściwej odpowiedzi na to pytanie, skorzystaj z mojego ALGO. Więcej na ten temat już wkrótce na mojej stronie która zostanie uruchomiona do końca lutego.
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@Gosha2022CH Honestly, I am not even trying to guess. Once I have buy signal on ETH ALGO, I will know it's time to heavily load up and that's it. ETH chart is so tricky, that relying just on TA would be a trap.
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Hi, I will launch my website, That should be available since March. At the begining it will be in Polish, but later on it will be in English as well. In the meantime, if you would like to get more details on my research, just send me your contact details as a private message.
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@MedvedyukV77348 The website should be launched by the end of February, however, if you want to learn more about it right now, just send me your email details via private messaging. Once I have your contact, I will brief you through email.
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@osenter16 @PhilKonieczny Ja będę to wiedział znacznie wcześniej, zanim ETH wybije. Główną siłą mojego algo jest to, że daje sygnały kupna w dołkach i nie trzeba czekać na nie, do momentu wybicia.
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@osenter16 @PhilKonieczny Ja nie skreślam altów. Powiem więcej, jeżeli moje ETH algo da sygnał buy, to będzie bardzo silna przesłanka za alt season.
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Today's data from the US labor market: Continued Jobless Claims are especially worth noting. I have 2 aspects in mind: - The fact that continuing claims show a more upward trend than initial claims. This illustrates such a situation that the risk of losing a job in the US is not still high, but if someone has already lost a job, it is much harder to find a new one than it was before. In other words, the U.S. economy is not yet laying people off, but it is not hiring either. - The second aspect is the critical level of 1.9 million Continued applications. So far, whenever Continued Claims approached this level there was a downward bounce (a clear line of resistance). I expect,once this level is pierced, however, there will be clearly perceptible weakening of the labor market, which is particularly relevant in the context of the chart I presented yesterday on recession timing based on the 30Y-3M bond spread (potential start of recession in June)jl
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