Solid US labour market data for Jan 2025 despite creating only 143 000 jobs in the month. This is due to the unemployment falling to 4.0%. But wage growth strong. US labour market data confirms US growth is solid but this will encourage the Fed to keep rates on hold

President Trump has delayed imposing the tariffs on Mexico by a month because Mexico agreed to send 10 000 troops to the border to improve border control. What can Canada offer?

Trump has announced tariffs with effect from Tue 4 Feb. 25% duties against both Mexico and Canada and 10% against China. Oil from Canada is only 10%. It looks like Canada and Mexico will respond with similar duties. This will hurt all involved and create uncertainty.

President Trump had indicated that the US would impose 25% import tariffs on Mexico and Canada from 1 Feb, and 10% duties on imports from China, also from 1 February. The data for these tariffs has now been shifted to 1 March. Presumably, more negotiations/changes to follow

Eskom is saying they have had several breakdowns that require extended repair times. Consequently Stage 4 likely over the weekend. Very unhelpful at this stage of SA’s growth recovery

US economy grew by 2.3% in the final quarter of 2024, a bit below expectations. A decline in inventories subtracted almost 1% from the quarterly growth rate. Most of the growth still attributable to consumer spending.

SA Reserve Bank cut interest rates 25bps as expected, although two MPC members voted for rates to remain unchanged. The Bank highlighted upside risks to SA inflation from external factors (mostly President Trump) as well as high administered prices domestically. Cautious approach

US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. This was in line with expectations. The Fed highlighted that the economy remains strong. Tone of the Fed’s statement was a little hawkish

In 2024 the US government spent the same amount on national defence as it did on net interest on debt. While it is difficult to know which expense is worse, the total spent on both categories in 2024 could fund the SA national government’s total budget for the next 13 years.

IMF revised up their world growth outlook marginally for 2025 from 3.2% to 3.3%. Increase was mainly driven by the US and China, while growth rate for the Euro area was revised down. The IMF kept their 2025 growth forecast for SA unchanged at 1.5%, in line with local estimates

US consumer inflation in line with expectations in November at 2.7%. Core inflation still at 3.3%. US continues to struggle to make further progress on getting inflation down to 2%. Fed expected to cut rates on 18 December, but will have a more cautious approach in early 2025

South African retail sales surged by more than 6% year on year in Oct, which is the first full month of two pot cash. Effectively, consumers shopped as if we are in a 6% growth economy. Now we just have to find a way to do that every month without using long term pension savings

Not much inflationary pressure in South Africa despite two pot spending. Headline inflation still below 3% in Nov, food inflation only 1.6%. Inflation rate for appliances is -1.8%y/y, furnishing also in deflation at -2.7%y/y and sporting equipment at -2.5%. More rates cuts ahead

SA’s GDP declined by a surprise 0.3% in Q3 of the year. Most people expected a small increase. Agricultural production recorded substantial decline of 28.8% which did most of the damage. The growth rate will improve sharply in the final quarter given the two-pot sugar rush

South African Reserve Bank cuts rates by 25bps, as expected. While SA inflation is currently below 3% the Reserve Bank continues to adopt a very cautious approach to monetary policy

RT @elerianm: It should come as no surprise that the media tends to oversimplify the U.S. tariff debate, with both sides of the argument co…

Over the past year SA’s manufacturing production has declined by 0.8% despite a meaningful improvement in electricity output. While some industries have recorded good growth such as food, many others have declined including clothing, paper, glass, cement, and motor vehicles

SA’s unemployment rate improved to 32.1% in Q3 2024, although this is still extremely high. Over past year the economy added 201 000 jobs, all in the informal sector. At the same time the number of discouraged workers rose by 199 000 which helps to lower the unemployment rate.

US Fed cut interest rates by 25bps as expected. No surprise in policy statement, but focus is on upcoming press conference. Powell likely to avoid all political related questions and say very little about the outlook for interest rates until Trump’s policies are better understood

US added only 12 000 jobs in Oct, well below expectations. But weather had a negative effect on the employment data, but no specific number mentioned so difficult to judge how big an effect. Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, which is the more important number in this month’s data