Ben Laidler
@laidler_ben
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Data, perspective, insights. Head of equity strategy @BradescoBBI , via etoro, HSBC, JPM, UBS + 3 continents. Making astrology look respectable! 🚀🌍 Not advice.
London
Joined October 2021
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Thursday - Crypto more popular than stocks, for many. Easing of this crypto winter different to before, with greater equity correlation, instruments, institutional and retail ownership. Younger DIY investors own more crypto than stocks, and bought Q2 low.
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Thursday - Recession-winning stocks. We highlight stocks that historically benefitted from a recession, from home DIY to auto repair, allowing investors to play offense not just defence. They are also 'all-weather' with a very strong long term record.
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Tuesday - The number of female CEO’s is rising but remains very low, at under 10% in US, UK, and Germany. This is surprising as the data shows they often do better – similar to female investors. Join the eToro
#InvestWithHer
initiative.
#investing
#ESG
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There have been worse! Google was once called 'Backrub' and Bezos wanted to call Amazon 'Cadabra'!
New FB name is the first time I've seen in the internet era a large corp adopt a descriptive, mission driven name.
To me this shows the maturity of the internet age.
Meta feels no different to IBM, CVS or AT&T. The question is will its longevity be the same?
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Friday - Big sell offs in context. Markets are in a tough spot but history shows strongly positive risk/reward to buying '4% down days' and average S&P 500 'corrections' over the following 12-months.
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Choose your US yield curve 'recession indicator' carefully. 3m-10y has the better track record (10 of the past 9 recessions), and is nothing like as alarming at the more quoted 2yr-10y
🇺🇸 Yield Curve
The steepening of the 3-month/10-year UST yield curve suggests that the Fed's monetary policy tightening could be slower
👉
h/t
@MorganStanley
#markets
#yieldcurve
#bonds
#treasury
#yields
#yield
#economy
#GDP
#growth
#recession
#investing
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Thursday - Can the autos sweet-spot last? Car stocks outperformed with both volumes and pricing surprisingly strong, giving the 'big 3' flexibility in the UAW strike, but still facing double headwinds of a slower economy and EV transition with rock-bottom valuations reflecting
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Wednesday - Back at the desk! Our favoured cheaper and faster-growing cyclicals are in focus as we see a re-run of last year's Q1 bond tantrum, with Brent oil now back at $80/bbl, and omicron showing the way (see chart) to a broader re-opening.
#investing
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Its a cliche for a reason....'Sell in May and go away' is a reality across the world. We laid out the data and why it happens. Thanks
@tomkeene
@bsurveillance
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Totally agree. Give an inch and the market will take a mile, unwinding much of the tighter financial conditions…much of which have still to be fully felt by refinanced corporates and 30yr fixed mortgage holders
The Fed isn't hawkish or dovish. It's playing defense. Hikes are basically over, but - if the Fed says as much - markets get ahead of themselves and price lots of cuts. Hence all the "one more hike in 2023" and "higher-for-longer" messaging. It's just expectations management...
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Friday - World’s biggest currency surprise. Russian ruble surged over 30% vs US dollar but now set to fall. It is among world's most expensive currencies, capital controls are easing, interest rates cut, and dollar demand depressed. Watch out below.
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Wednesday - What to expect from Fed? Doubling of tapering to $30bn/m and 2 rate hikes in 2022 'dot plot'. Plenty of nerves with unprecedented $8.7trn Fed assets and zero rates, but is also room for relief. Our 'fair value' P/E supports high valuations.
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Friday - The electric vehicle gap. Surging EV sales highlight the 10x long term growth prize, amidst recent sharp sector stock weakness and valuation reset, but with China dominating sales and supply chain vs US.
#investing
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Friday - ‘Our currency, your problem’. The 20% US dollar surge is tightening global financial conditions and exporting inflation. But is also cutting S&P 500 earnings by a third and gives a welcome competitiveness boost to many Europe and Asian exporters.
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Wednesday - does geopolitics really matter for markets? History says no, with few long-lasting effects. Long run measures of geopolitical risk are relatively low...but economic uncertainty high, a 'new normal'.
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Thursday: Watch the ‘Quadruple witching’ tomorrow. Is one of biggest market volume days of the year. In a big news week like this + before Christmas week! Futures and options volumes have been soaring this year, making tomorrow even bigger.
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Wednesday - the chasm in the oil market. Energy stocks have hugely outperformed the crude oil slump. Something needs to give. We think the risk is oil rises with supply tightening - from OPEC to new sanctions - and China reopening.
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Monday - Earnings outlook not so bad. Is biggest risk for next year as recession looms. But expected, historic earnings falls relatively modest, valuations to give some relief, and investors can take added insurance owning defensive, or cheaper sectors.
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Wednesday: Energy stocks decouple from falling crude. Valuations (9x P/E) and $20/bbl. breakeven costs allow oil stocks to decouple from crude. High-for-longer oil brews as SPR sales near end, EU Russia embargo looms, and drilling activity 50% off high.
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Friday - A brave new investing world. We are positive markets but its a new environment, with lower growth, rising rates, higher volatility, not to go away. Leadership is different than last decade. See cheaper sectors and overseas markets.
#investing
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Monday - The investor sentiment recovery. The strong sentiment rebound this year helped drive markets and valuations above average, putting onus on the building earnings recovery. Institutions remain cautious, retail never gave up, and buybacks are strong.
@etoro
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A 50bps rate hike counts as 'shock-and-awe' by ECB standards, but is likely as aggressive as it gets given the unique European vice of near recession and energy-driven inflation. Background here:
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Wednesday - Anatomy of dollar dominance. The US dollar has taken a recent breather but remains well-supported. Currencies are by far the most liquid asset class, and the dollar dominates on one side of 9-in-10 trades, with wide implications.
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A goldilocks US jobs report helps our contrarian view of an easing inflation and interest rate shock taking markets up in 2023....with assists from a China rebound and less-bad tech sector performance. Thanks to
@juleshyman
@thebradsmith
@BrianSozzi
“The inflation story [still] has months to play out,”
@eToro
Global Markets Strategist
@laidler_ben
says on the meaning behind the December jobs report data. Full comments:
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Wednesday - All-weather extreme climate stocks. With temperatures soaring and extreme weather events becoming common-place we highlight natgas, HVAC, generator, home improvement, auto repair, and solar segment beneficiaries and the pricing offsets to perceived ag and insurance
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Monday - Why a Pause not a Pullback. S&P 500 is now 5% off recent high, a natural breather after record-breaking rally, and reminder markets typically see c. three 5% dips a year. Improving fundamentals intact and immediate dip drivers of high bond yields and oil prices likely
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Tuesday - A white-collar recession? Tech layoffs are piling up. But are a much bigger deal for the stock market, as tech-led pandemic growth and high valuations normalise, than for the economy, where its only 3% of employment and job openings high.
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Great to be on with our positive take on markets....retail sales, inflation, the role of individual investors, buybacks etc. Thanks
@BrianSozzi
@juleshyman
@thebradsmith
“There’s plenty of technical reasons why this market is rallying,”
@eToro
Global Markets Strategist
@laidler_ben
says on the convergence of various economic pressures. “But it’s really all about the less bad fundamentals.”
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Friday - Uh-oh it's May. The start of 'Sell in May' poor market seasonality adds to the already rough and atypical start to the year, but we think is more than offset by ‘less bad’ fundamentals and less policy fears. Rotate don't capitulate.
#investing
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Thursday - UK’s costly step back from stagflation brink. Dramatic unfunded spending and energy plans will cut inflation and cushion coming recession now. But at cost of big deficits and more debt. Will hit Sterling and bond yields, but support equities.
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Tuesday - Anatomy of market corrections. They are rare (see chart), but happen, and it pays to buy them. We are positive after market 'triple whammy' - much priced from Fed; earnings still surprising; geopolitical risk normally not long-lasting.
#investing
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Tuesday - All inflation lead-indicators now falling. High and sticky US reported inflation is driving market fears. But all the leading price indicators are now easing. Giving hope that an easing in Fed rate hikes is within sight.
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Monday - retail investors holding firm? Our latest global survey shows retail investors more important than ever, and holding firm, despite surging inflation worries. They are newer, younger, more female, and risk tolerant.
#investing
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Wednesday - Heat, drought, and hurricanes. Investors face potentially one of the most powerful El Niño weather events in history, threatening commodity markets and boosting extreme weather stocks. We already see Panama Canal disruption and rising Atlantic hurricane season
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Monday - judging risk vs reward. S&P 500 valuations are now below average, but earnings the shoe still to drop, down 20%+ in a recession. But a 'slowdown not recession' gives room for some relief to earnings fears and a valuation recovery.
#investing
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Wednesday - The hard last inflation yards. US inflation is the most important number in markets and its continued gradual easing, as housing and jobs market pressures cool, will open the way to Fed interest rate cuts and support the economic and earnings outlook.
@etoro
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Wednesday - Three drivers of the Q1 roadmap. A positive start to 2023 needs a combination of 1) easing US services and wage inflation pressures, 2) a successful re-opening of China's economy, 3) a more resilient 'tech' sector. See the dates to watch.
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Friday - lack of crypto contagion. FTX latest self-inflicted crypto crisis. But cross-asset contagion limited given long winter, small size, and collapsed correlations. Is a 2023 wild card as Fed macro pressures ease and underlying crypto utility remains.
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Monday - Bear rally or new bull market? We think the market bottom is in, but this is a bear market rally until reported inflation decisively falls. This is 4th 'bear rally' of this sell-off...history seen up to 11 before. Be invested but defensive.
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Monday - Another good year in 2022? We see a rare 4th consecutive year of good returns in 2022. Consensus earnings are too low, and valuations set to be higher-for-longer. The macro outlook is positive for equities, commodities, crypto.
#investing
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Friday - Our contrarian sentiment indicator turns bullish! Measuring individual investors, VIX, fund flows, and put/call ratio. Another support to the fundamental call. 'Be greedy when others are fearful'.
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We expect this bond yield and high oil vice to slowly ease off markets, Q3 results to mark the end of the earnings recession, and seasonality to flip in your favour as investors look ahead to a better 2024. Thanks to
@thebradsmith
@SeanaNSmith
@eToro
“If you ask retail investors what their number one worry is right now, they’ll tell you it’s a domestic recession,” eToro strategist
@laidler_ben
says. “They’re worried, but what are they doing about it? Not very much.”
@Nasdaq
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Thursday - Space is booming but difficult. The number of objects launched is soaring on a flywheel of lower costs and miniaturisation, and the investable universe broadening from rockets to imaging and data, even as overall space ETFs have been serial underperformers.
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Friday - Windfall taxes add to Europe’s valuation discount. The popularity of windfall taxes in the UK and Europe is only widening the yawning valuation gap vs the US, by cutting profits and boosting uncertainty. No surprise the continents targeted oil and bank stocks are valued
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Monday - Entering earnings season no-man’s land. Markets looking for some earnings validation from Friday’s Q2 earnings season start after 1H rally. S&P 500 set for a trough -6% but with tech showing signs of renewed growth and ahead of Q4’s double digit growth forecasts.
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Tuesday - More earnings relief, for now. Companies once again showing can navigate slowing economy, with Q2 earnings easing worst-fears. But clock ticking as forecasts being broadly, if gradually, cut. Are invested, but defensive, for U-shaped recovery.
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Thursday - Costs of rising short-termism. Average US stock holding periods fallen from 5 yrs to 10 months in recent decades. Has contributed to current 'pain-trade' of out-of-position investors. Retail is better placed, as 63% think in years or decades.
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Tuesday - China’s Party Congress and the next five years. It's been a tough few years for Chinese assets. Hopes are the Oct 16th party Congress can offer a pro-growth policy tilt to stabilize the macro outlook, and support Europe to Japan to commodities.
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Friday - Building some market muscle. Protein commodities and stocks are a potential port in the recessionary-risk storm as consumers (temporarily) trade-down from pricier meat-substitutes, and long term demographics drive up to a 20x increase in demand.
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Wednesday - Poor sentiment still a contrarian support. Sentiment remains as depressed as the bigger 2020 covid or 2008 global financial crises. Is a key contrarian support as we await a fundamental decline in inflation and Christmas Fed rate hike peak.
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Friday - Europe's luxury success story. A rare sector where Europe dominates. Looks set for further outperformance as China stabilizes, EUR stays weak, new growth avenues emerge (like NFTs), and 'moats' widen.
#investing
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Thursday - Commercial real estate not as bad as seems. Often seen as next economic shoe-to-drop but 1) are long maturity loans with low-to-value ratios, 2) problems well known and priced, and 3) interest rates coming. Makes an earnings not systemic issue.
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Monday - What retail investors are thinking. DIY investors are more important than ever, structurally increasing in number, buying stocks 4:1 vs selling, historically focused on US and tech stocks, and now nibbling at contrarian cyclical and overseas assets as look to soft
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Friday - Demographics is destiny. Population growth a big and overlooked driver of economies, if properly harvested. The global gap just in next decade is stark, and drives opportunities from healthcare and automation to consumer goods and infrastructure.
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Monday - Bonds back in the toolkit. Long term US treasury bonds are getting a second look from investors after a terrible first half, as yields have soared and recession fears are now helping cut the inflation outlook.
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Wednesday - US midterms bounce could be bigger. Nov 8th mid-term polls show a Republican clean-sweep. A typical post midterm market bounce may be super-charged this year by lower inflation and peaked Fed outlook, plus normal strong year-end seasonality.
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The case for buying the pullback? Will be on
@bsurveillance
at 11 GMT today and
@BloombergRadio
at 11.15. Come and listen in!
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Tuesday - History is on your side....HNY! Consensus is downbeat on 2023 but S&P 500 rises 85% the time after a down year, with average 18% return after big losses. Lower inflation drives our contrarian positive view. January sets tone for year 70% time.
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Thursday - Getting ready for REITS. They have not performed as hoped this year, hurt by high debt and rising interest rates. But as we look ahead to a Christmas rate peak and declines in 2023 the outlook is brightening for traditional rate sensitives.
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The early santa rally has legs with the oil and bond yield vice eased, earnings recession over, and technicals from sentiment to seasonality and buybacks at your back now. Thanks to
@thebradsmith
@SeanaNSmith
@bensozzi
.
@eToro
“The consumer is in pretty good shape,” eToro strategist
@laidler_ben
says on the outlook for the holiday shopping season. “This is the story that keeps giving. This is why the US isn’t in recession.”
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Friday - Global interest rate cuts have started. Chile and Brazil are leading LatAm off the rate cutting starters block, with eastern Europe to follow, and Canada and US next year. Anticipation of cuts usually drives stocks, whilst FX focused on the coming growth pick up than
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Thursday - Market taking on Fed again. Market has aggressively loosened financial conditions and priced five rate cuts for 2024, setting up a Fed showdown at next week's meeting. Regardless the short-term risks, the stage is set for mid-2024 rate cuts and a big country, sector,
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Wednesday - Braced for temporary inflation fall stall. Our US inflation indicator shows near-all underlying price pressures still easing, validating data-dependent Fed interest rate pause, and gives reassurance to worries that price falls have stalled.
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Friday - Why interest rate hikes aren’t working yet. The US is a global outlier with its high level of fixed interest rate and long maturity corporate and consumer debts. This is delaying, but not postponing, the impact of the Fed's dramatic interest rate upcycle on the economy.
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Wednesday - The twin threat from higher oil prices. It’s a $100bn US consumer tax and raising inflation expectations but will self-correct as triggers slowdown fears. US gas prices are 23% off lows, with impacts exacerbated by its low gas taxes, relative car inefficiency, and
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Tuesday – US oil sales to backfire? Threat of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) sales has already cut prices. Actually selling could backfire – seen as desperate, only short-term, and historically ineffective. We see high-for-longer oil prices.
#investing
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Friday - ‘Sweet tooth’ commodities sat out the rally. Sugar and cocoa prices have sat out the dramatic ag price rally, providing rare relief to both sweet tooth consumers and many big company users.
#investing
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Wednesday - Cannabis industry growing pains. Biden taken first baby-steps to Federally decriminalise marijuana and eventually ease cost and tax burden that suffocating the industry. More Americans smoke marijuana than cigarettes, yet market cap <20th size
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Monday - A better year for thematic investing. It’s been tough time for themes, but 2023 is looking up as adoption trends stay strong for many and valuation pressures are set to ease. Thematic funds risen to 3% of equity assets but with 70% considering.
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Thursday - Brazil readies to go back-to-the-future. A polarised October presidential election offers a combo of political visibility, high and peaking interest rates, and world’s cheapest equity valuations. This a market that should keep standing out.
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Thursday - China’s limited contagion risks. China is an economic giant but a relative capital markets minnow, and a dramatic opposite to super-sized US markets. This lessens contagion risks from growth and debt concerns, whilst its policy flexibility and low valuations are
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Monday - Positive glass-half-full outlook. PMI health-check shows ‘glass-half-full’ view of stalling growth, falling inflation, and resilient jobs. Keeps us fully invested and looking to add some ‘quality risk’ on weakness to core defensive positioning.
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Monday - The US dollar wrecking ball. US$ 20-yr high, tightening financial conditions and pressuring commodities, EM, US tech. But helps many EU and JP exporters, and US inflation. Slumping GBP shows the pros and cons. FTSE 100 the worlds top performer.
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Where to hunt for the investing holy grail of 'ten-bagger' stocks, from US mid cap tech to Australian miners. Thanks to
@thebradsmith
@DianeKingHall
@YahooFinance
eToro global markets strategist
@laidler_ben
joins Yahoo Finance to discuss market rally opportunities:
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Tuesday - Emerging Markets better in 2024. This perennial stock market laggard may start to better reflect its stronger economic growth and population dominance, as China's economy stabilizes, interest rates are cut, and the dollar weakens.
@etoro
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Tuesday - Shadow banks ‘dancing in the streets’. Hefty new US capital proposals are the latest headwind for long-suffering and heavily regulated banks, and a boost to less-regulated alternative lenders whose share prices have outpaced them 2-to-1 in recent years.
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Tuesday - Valuation worries but not panic. US stock valuations are now at a near record premium to our fair-value health check, but we see coming supports from lower bond yields, recovering earnings, and with plenty of cheaper alternatives across the wide sector and markets
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Wednesday - Don’t sweat the seasonality. September market seasonality is famously the worst of the year, and adding to the bearish narrative. Yet nothing this year has been average so far, and we are more focused on the outlook for easing inflation.
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Our take on markets, the coming economic slowdown, and why not to worry too much about it. Thanks to
@juleshyman
@thebradsmith
@YahooFinance
@7sReport
"The market is not the economy these days," eToro Global Markets Strategist
@laidler_ben
says. "It's tech, it's health care, it's defensives, it's things that are much more sensitive to inflation…"
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Thursday - Europe’s banks are different. Contagion spread from US to Europe. Regions banks differ from US. More capital, regulations, consolidated. But more important, with high loans/GDP. Authorities can contain the systemic risks. Look to ECB today.
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Tuesday - Prepare for harder won returns. Long-duration heavy stock market to benefit from peaking Fed rates, bond yields, and lower inflation. But volatility to pick up and seasonality worsen. May highlights Fed cycle peak and June 1 debt ceiling X date.
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Tuesday - A better year for Asian markets? Valuation now at a record discount to the US, China easing just as other tighten, and outlook for zero-covid policy relief later in the year. It's 14 markets and over 4bn people economies.
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Friday - Porsche tests the IPO winter thaw. IPO activity and performance has unsurprisingly collapsed this year, taking some pressure off market supply/demand. The coming massive Porsche listing will be the test of the slow thaw underway.
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The 'contrarian buy' sentiment indicators are getting interesting....but VIX and put/call ratio are still not even through Q4 levels yet. They are the ones to now watch before buying into a sentiment capitulation
The AAII bull-bear spread suggests that investors haven’t been this nervous about the market since mid-2020.
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Thursday - No comeback for Quantitative Easing (QE). Fed's balance sheet is rising again, to huge $8.6trn. Is not a return of QE or green light for all risk assets. But short term banks help, with rates still rising and financial conditions tightening.
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Tuesday - valuation reality check. Lower markets and upward earnings revisions cut S&P 500 fwd. P/E to <20x, reducing valuation risks. Near our 'fair value' P/E, with company profitability high and bond yields low. Not cheap, but supported.
#investing
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Tuesday - Three drivers of the earnings recovery. Next stage of bull market being led by a triple-play profits recovery of tech leadership, profits margins, and economic resilience, that is taking over from the rising valuations that have driven so far, as the earnings recession
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Tuesday - Dr. Copper in the hospital. The dramatic copper price slump is signalling a sharp global slowdown and lower US 10-year bond yields. But is also a long term opportunity as central to the energy transition, with tight supply, and producers halved.
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This positive US jobs report underpins the market path of least resistance higher and builds on August's resilience, in our view. Thanks to
@thebradsmith
@RachelleAkuffo
“I think if you’re the market or the Fed this is as close to a perfect jobs report as frankly you’re ever going to get,” eToro Global Markets Strategist
@laidler_ben
says, adding: “It ticks all the boxes.” Full comments:
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Kinda crazy that US financial conditions (as measured by Chicago Fed) are looser than when the Fed started hiking 11 months ago! If Powell gives an inch the market will take a mile.
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Tuesday - Have bond yields peaked? Copper/gold ratio is showing a potential US bond yield peak. Could take some pressure off now below-average S&P 500 P/E valuations and even see nibbles at very out-of-favour fixed income.
#investing
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Monday - A good enough earnings season. AI revenue hopes have disappointed, but three-quarters of S&P 500 stocks have beaten lowered profits expectations at the halfway point for crucial Q2 earnings. With focus on coming quarters rebound to support the big valuation-led rally
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Wednesday - Nearing the all-time-high. The S&P 500 has its sights set on regaining its high from two years ago after one of the longer waits in history. These technicals are important to many investors, and new-highs historically drive new-highs.
@etoro
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Monday - Time to look outside the US. US markets are super-sized and super-expensive and have outperformed overseas markets for 14-years. This US exceptionalism is changing, as an economic soft landing and lower interest rates driving rotation to cheaper, more cyclical, and
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Friday - Europe in the eye-of-the-storm. 13x higher natgas prices are driving Europe towards recession. The EUR has borne brunt of the investment impact. But equities done better than feared, with valuations cheap and earnings rebounding from a low base.
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Tuesday - Poor sentiment still supports markets. Our proprietary investor sentiment index is depressed and a key contrarian support to markets. Fund outflows have been remorseless. The 'broken' VIX is an outlier and vulnerable to renewed recession fears.
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Monday - Earnings season next catalyst. Friday's start of Q4 earnings season benefits from low expectations and likely supportive sequential growth pick up on both sides of Atlantic. This idiosyncratic profits recovery alongside rate cuts are the twin pillars of a 2024 rally.
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How markets are talking themselves into a funk, our positive view on markets, and the short term silver lining for Europe. Thanks to
@tomkeene
@FerroTV
@lisaabramowicz1
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