2024 Investment Retrospective Introduction 2024 was a remarkably eventful year for markets and the news cycle, as is often the case during presidential election years. Key moments included the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, and his subsequent landslide victory, which has brought an intriguing pro-tech team selection. Clear trends emerged in both AI and crypto. Large language models (LLMs) reached an inflection point, becoming the “iPhone moment” of the 2020s. Meanwhile, Bitcoin achieved institutional adoption, even earning the title of “digital gold” from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Markets were volatile for much of the year, fueled by political uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions. However, post-election, tech — particularly crypto and companies aligned with Trump’s administration — has surged. The question remains: can this trend continue? Find out next episode on Dragon Ball Z. Current Portfolio Allocation Breakdown Let’s start with a high-level overview of my portfolio allocation. As it stands, I’m heavily overweight in crypto. This is somewhat understated, as I’ve included my Coinbase stock in the equity slice, which I’d argue also represents crypto exposure. The recent surge in crypto prices, especially Bitcoin, has increased this concentration to a level where I’ll need to actively rebalance throughout 2025. This is particularly important given my expectation that crypto prices will continue to rise, barring any macroeconomic disruptions. My goal is to grow my cash and cash equivalents to 25–30% and allocate about 5% to longer-duration treasuries as a hedge against slower economic growth. The yield from this treasury allocation will be reinvested into my highest-conviction positions at the time, which I’ll discuss later in this article. Now, let’s take a closer look at the breakdown of my crypto and equity positions. The breakdown shows that I’m fairly concentrated in a few crypto assets, primarily the “majors.” My equities portfolio is slightly more diversified, although most holdings — aside from the S&P 500, Coinbase, and Nike — are focused on AI. By next year, I plan to consolidate these holdings into a unified set of metrics as I rebalance toward equities and trim smaller positions. My goal is to increase my S&P 500 allocation to 20% of my portfolio (up from 6.5%) and my SGOV allocation to 20% (up from 11.8%). I’ll likely fund this shift by rotating out of crypto or selling positions like Nvidia and Palantir, where I believe I’ve already captured most of the upside. At current valuations, these stocks make less sense from a risk-adjusted perspective. While I don’t intend to do this personally, I believe a savvy investor could outperform benchmarks over the next decade by actively and strategically rebalancing between SGOV, TLT, VOO, and IBIT. With this in mind, I aim to reduce the number of individual positions in my portfolio and focus instead on larger allocations to index funds tracking U.S. equities. U.S. equities typically grind higher in bull markets, whereas crypto tends to experience sharp, volatile repricing, as we saw this year. This volatility can take a toll on my mental health, which is another reason I plan to gradually reduce my exposure to crypto over time. Outlook and Emerging Trends As we head into 2025, uncertainty looms large, as highlighted by Jerome Powell in the recent FOMC Q&A. Significant political shifts are likely to drive policy changes, and recent market price action — such as the performance of Bitcoin and Tesla — suggests some of this has already been priced in following the election. However, the bond market remains skeptical about inflation, with longer-duration yields continuing to rise, which I find intriguing. Barring major macroeconomic risks, I believe the equity and crypto bull markets will persist. That said, with valuations becoming stretched, 2025 may be a good time to take significant profits and mitigate downside risk. I aim to position myself with sufficient dry powder to capitalize on opportunities arising from inevitable corrections or external shocks. If DOGE’s proposals gain traction, I could see a short-term recession driven by reduced government spending and increased unemployment, similar to the initial effects of Javier Milei’s presidency in Argentina. This could be followed by a private sector-driven economic boom. Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors predicts a strong first half of the year, followed by a potential correction in the second half as high expectations from Trump’s “honeymoon phase” give way to the slower implementation of policy changes and subsequent effects. I agree with this outlook but anticipate even greater volatility during Trump’s second presidency, akin to his first. As an active discretionary trader, I’ll need to stay agile, monitoring new developments and adapting quickly to evolving market conditions. Crypto My affinity for crypto is evident from my previous articles and current portfolio allocation. With the incoming Trump administration’s positive stance, I believe the sector will continue to perform well in 2025. The Bitcoin ETFs have set records as the most successful launches ever, underscoring Bitcoin’s status as an institutional-grade asset. Barring significant macroeconomic risks, I expect the crypto market to follow its typical four-year cycle, likely peaking at some point in 2025. Historically, altcoins like ETH and SOL have outperformed BTC toward the end of bullish cycles, and I anticipate this trend to continue. However, outperforming within crypto has become significantly more challenging due to the sheer number of tokens and projects, many of which launched at high valuations. The market now shows far greater dispersion, with a few clear winners and many underperformers, particularly when paired against BTC. Recognizing my limitations in long-term token selection, I’ve concentrated my holdings in nearly equal amounts of BTC, ETH, and SOL. However, I do think I excel at identifying short-term narratives and rotational “metas” early on. For example, I recently capitalized on the AI meta triggered by GOAT, identifying its potential at a $25M market cap based on curated Twitter insights and connections to Marc Andreessen through tech podcasts. GOAT subsequently ran to $1.2 billion, sparking an entire new crypto meta. If I can replicate similar opportunities once or twice in 2025, I believe I can dramatically outperform BTC as a benchmark without taking excessive risk. The keys will be patience, conviction, and position sizing. When I spot a promising meta early with high conviction, I’m comfortable allocating 1–2% of my portfolio and taking profits along the way if the thesis proves correct or cutting my exposure quickly if the market reflects I’m wrong. AI AI is the dominant technology narrative in markets today, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. As I’ve mentioned before, general-purpose LLMs like ChatGPT represent the iPhone moment of the 2020s. As a heavy user of these tools in my work as a software and data engineer, I’ve seen how they’ve revolutionized workflows, dramatically increasing my speed and efficiency. Tasks that once took weeks now take minutes, lowering the barrier for experimentation and allowing me more opportunities to create value. This impact extends beyond individual productivity. Across industries, AI could bring revolutionary efficiency gains. While we tend to overestimate the short-term effects of technology and underestimate the long-term, I believe the transformative power of AI will become evident by the 2030s. Fortune 500 companies may see rising gross margins as retiring Boomer and Gen X employees are not replaced one-to-one due to AI-driven efficiency, though this could also lead to reduced net inflows into major indices as a potential negative externality. AI enables unprecedented leverage, and I believe it’s inevitable billion-dollar companies will be built by a handful of people — or even a single individual. In 2024, Nvidia has been the clear AI winner, profiting as the “pick and shovel” provider for this gold rush. However, I believe the next phase will see the downstream effects of AI software show up on the income statements of leading tech companies. Here’s how I’m positioning my portfolio for AI: Tesla: Tesla’s full self-driving technology is one of the most ambitious and transformative practical AI applications. When solved, it will reshape society. Amazon: With AWS, Amazon is the clear infrastructure play. At the Databricks AI Summit, Jensen Huang predicted a 100x increase in data over the next five years, driven by AI, translating directly to cloud expenditure for storage and compute. Meta: Meta leads the open-source AI movement with its Llama models and has an enviable pool of top AI talent. Their cash-generating social media monopoly supports relentless innovation, including AR/VR advancements and potential licensing revenue from Llama, as hinted in their Palantir partnership. S&P 500: Long-term exposure to AI is best achieved through the S&P 500. It’s impossible to predict the winners of a decades-long technology trend, but the index ensures exposure to leading companies across industries benefiting from AI-driven efficiency gains. While AI’s transformative potential is undeniable, I believe its broader impacts will take longer to materialize than many expect. One underrated aspect of this trend is its role as a forcing function for the development and deployment of nuclear energy. The massive energy demands of training and supporting LLMs have pushed the hyperscalers into investing in alternative energy generation, particularly nuclear. This mirrors the innovation sparked by the space race of the 1960s and 70s. True innovation in nuclear energy could reshape geopolitics and economics, enabling cheaper and more decentralized energy. Solving such hard problems propels humanity up the Kardashev scale — and I’m excited to invest in the companies driving these changes. The Most Recognizable Brand in the World While I enjoy investing in hot technology trends, I aim to start building a few core positions in non-tech focused sectors. My first focus for 2025 is Nike, my favorite brand and arguably the most globally recognized. The stock is down over 20% in the past five years, a decline that coincided with John Donahoe’s tenure as CEO. Like many external hires for iconic brands, this leadership change failed to resonate. Recently, however, Nike replaced Donahoe with Elliott Hill, a beloved company veteran who began at Nike as an intern in 1988. Hill’s return signals a shift back to Nike’s roots: celebrating the competitive spirit of sports and elite athletes. Hill’s appointment is particularly symbolic. His career began in 1988, the same year Nike released the iconic Air Jordan 3, designed by Tinker Hatfield. This shoe kept Michael Jordan with Nike, propelling the brand to unprecedented heights and creating a legacy every elite athlete now seeks to replicate. Nike’s intellectual property, especially its Jordan brand, remains unmatched and isn’t fully reflected in the current stock price. Beyond leadership and valuation, two long-term growth drivers underpin my thesis: Digital Goods: Nike is beginning to monetize digital markets, with sneaker releases now available in games like Fortnite, which boasts over 100 million monthly active players. Each in-game pair costs roughly $8 (about 1000 V-Bucks), and aside from profit sharing with Epic Games, this revenue is pure margin. As digital ecosystems expand — especially with upcoming releases like GTA6 and eventual metaverse development — I expect Nike to lean further into this trend, justifying a higher valuation multiple. Production Efficiency via Automation: As a Tesla and Amazon shareholder, I recognize the transformative potential of automation in manufacturing and logistics. Over time, Nike can overhaul its supply chain with robotics and software innovations, significantly improving margins. While this will take years to materialize, the long-term impact is inevitable. Lastly, certain truths about the sneaker and athletic brand industry reinforce my conviction. Jordan’s legacy remains unparalleled, and it’s increasingly unlikely that any future NBA superstar will replicate it. Declining NBA viewership, competition from other sports, and the shift toward highly specialized basketball sneakers have diminished casual appeal compared to the classic, versatile designs of the 80s and 90s. Iconic models like the Air Force 1, Dunk, and Air Jordans 1–14 are untouchable. Nike’s basketball athlete brand influence extends far beyond just basketball. In the NFL, many athletes wear cleat variants of classic basketball sneakers, often from the Jordan, Kobe, or LeBron lines. For example, Saquon Barkley’s jaw-dropping leap this season in LeBron 4 cleats exemplifies Nike basketball’s cross-sport cultural dominance. While new elite athletes will emerge, their impact will likely pale compared to Jordan, Kobe, or LeBron. Nike’s intellectual property is priceless, and its value is far from fully reflected in the current stock price. Conclusion The biggest lesson I learned this year is the importance of sticking to a plan. Too often, I let greed convince me that my targets weren’t enough, leading to missed opportunities and round-tripped gains that could have been life-changing. Small, consistent wins compound over time, and I’ve realized that I can’t make up for poor initial sizing with greed later in a trade. Moving forward, I plan to keep a journal, updating it weekly to help stay mentally grounded and disciplined. Reflecting on 2024, it was a year marked by volatility followed by a repricing once uncertainty gave way to clarity. It was a year of valuable lessons, with AI and crypto emerging as dominant narratives — trends I’m highly convicted will persist into the near future, as reflected in my portfolio allocation. In 2025, I aim to further concentrate my portfolio into my best ideas, focusing on core holdings rather than spreading capital across lesser ideas. This shift may make my annual updates repetitive or less exciting, but that’s okay. I’ll use these reflections to document my growth, share new lessons, and continue honing my craft in what I consider the most intellectually stimulating MMORPG on the planet: financial markets.

RT @ali_41_: Oh this is my favorite.

@SeanONeill4 It’s only right!

@HedgeDirty Yup

@mr52pickup lol oh yeah, already order another jersey I absolutely do not need last night but I need some signed shit for these legends

@PHLEaglesNation Numero Uno

RT @NFL: AHHHHHHH #FlyEaglesFly

🏆🏆🏆

@mr52pickup Thanks my guy, unreal

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOO UH OHHHHHHH

RT @NFL: JALEN TO DEVONTA DEEP TOUCHDOWN! 📺: #SBLIX on FOX 📱: Tubi + NFL app

THE WHITE CORNERBACK ON HIS BIRTHDAYYYYYY

First drive we get an offensive pass interference on a huge 4th down. Absolute clown show already.

RT @Eagles: Locking In 🔒 *immediately puts on Quinyonamo Bay hoodie*

@soby0x We shall see

@bryan_johnson @kanyewest @inversebrah

RT @BarkleysBurner_: This is THE hype video 🦅🔥 GO BIRDS 🦅 #FlyEaglesFly #NFL #SuperBowl

@stoolpresidente Yikes man

RT @Nike: Blink and you’ll miss him. Big ups to Offensive Player of the Year, Saquon Barkley.